Cool Hand Lucroy

No, the Braves are totally ruled out. If they get swept, they're out. If they sweep, we play the Dbacks. In case of a split, we play the Mets.

This is the most interesting scenario AND (probably) the one most likely to benefit the Brewers. I could see the case for hoping to lock in a matchup with the Mets after today, but you have to take the marginal gain of forcing your opponent to play 18 innings of at least semi-meaningful baseball over the chance that one team loses two legs of the DH. That's always the less likely outcome, and you would think it would be especially so in this case. The other bit of news here is that it's impossible for us to face the Braves. Anyone worried about their pitching (they could still throw Fried and Lopez in games 2 and 3, even if they'd have to do a bullpen game or something in Game 1) will take some solace in that. EDIT: Absent straight collusion, of course, which is probably the game theory optimal play in this scenario. I'm not arguing for collusion. Just saying it's clearly the best possible outcome for both teams, a split where you don't have to work hard.

Crazy things happen in the desert, but I don't see a lot of incentive for the Brewers to play to win this one right now. Even if the Braves come back and clinch their spot, that's not the end of the world for the Brewers. If we come back and win this one, OTOH, we're getting the Braves or Dbacks no matter what. Would really like the Royals to hang on.

Yeah, you could definitely convince me of that. If you prefer the DBacks to the Braves, it may not be worth hoping the double-header materializes with stakes for both teams because that risks us getting ATL and their pitching staff, should they decide to sit Sale. Honestly....I think it's very risky for ATL to be throwing Morton today. If you lose, you open the door to having to use him Monday, and then he's toast for the whole WC series. Plus, you may have to play two games that matter if you drop game 1 of that double-header. I think I'd probably still do it the way they're doing it, but, man, that's a move that definitely screams of newer age thinking (namely, that you'd take a higher probability of not making the playoffs over starting your best pitcher on the final day of the season to clinch your spot). Fascinating game theory stuff going on in the NL today.

There are eight possible combinations of results today. Four are probably bad for us. 1) AZ L, ATL W, NYM W (Under this scenario, AZ is eliminated). 2) AZ W, ATL W, NYM L (Under this scenario, the Mets need to sweep a DH to qualify, and we'd be guaranteed to face either the Braves or the DBacks). 3) AZ L, ATL, L, NYM W (the Mets and Braves both clinch). 4) AZ W, ATL L, NYM L (Braves need one win in the DH. Mets need two. Both teams have to go all-out, but we get the DBacks no matter what--in other words, high-drama, but it doesn't help the Brewers ). Two are probably less bad but still not great: 5) AZ W, ATL W, NYM W (the Braves clinch, and the Mets need one win in the DHer--we would probably hope the Braves win game 1 and the Mets win game 2, giving us the Mets). 6) AZ L, ATL L, NYM L (Braves clinch, Mets need one win, functionally identical to scenario 4). The worry here is that if the Mets win game 1, they maybe don't play game 2, and we get the Braves who wouldn't have had to expend much energy. Two are good: 7) AZ L, ATL W, NYM L (Braves clinch, go two games up on the Mets, Mets have to win one game of the DHer to qualify. Under this scenario, we get the Braves if the Mets sweep, but that would seem very unlikely given that they might scrap game 2 if the Mets win the first one. Doubt they'd go all out to avoid the Padres). 8) AZ W, ATL L, NYM W (Three-way tie going into Monday. Both games are necessary. We get the Mets in the case of a split, which be the most likely outcome, and at least one of the games would have to be real). I would be pretty surprised if we were to play all out today, so we're probably AZ and Royals fans. But, if we win, we're probably Braves and Padres fans. The biggest shortcut for me: I'd like the Mets and DBacks to match results.

The current situation: Looks like the Mets and DBacks will trail the Braves by one game heading into the final day of the regular season. DBacks are low-team out on tiebreakers in any scenario. My thought is that I want either the Mets or Braves, hoping they have to play two competitive games Monday. So, the scenario we DON'T want is for the DBacks to lose and the Mets and Braves to win. If that happens, they don't need to play on Monday. Any other result means they have to play at least one meaningful game on Monday. The other scenario we don't want is for the DBacks and Braves to both win and the Mets to lose. That means the Mets will have to sweep a DHer to make the playoffs, in which case we'd get the Braves because that would give the Mets the 5 seed. Or, they'd fail to sweep, and we'd get the DBacks. In other words, root for the Royals tomorrow to ensure meaningful games Monday. Beyond that, two ways to look at it: 1) We want a three-way tie entering Monday. Three teams, two spots. This way, the Mets and Braves both HAVE to win at least one win game to both make it. A split gets them both in. Two losses, and you're out. You would think, under this scenario, Game 1 is full go for both teams. Game 2 is rest for one and full go for the other. We'd get the Mets in a split scenario, so we'd ideally want Atlanta to win game 1 and force the Mets to at least try to win the second. The risk here is either a) one team actually loses both games and we get the DBacks or b) both teams do some soft (or more overt) collusion to just get a split while maximizing rest. 2) We want the Braves to have clinched and the Mets to be even with the DBacks. This way, ATL would be resting, and the Mets would have to go all out to win at least one. Here, you probably don't get two super competitive games, but you at least guarantee that the Brewers most likely opponent has to play hard for nine innings. The downside is that, with the DH not meaning anything for the Braves, the stress on the Mets gets reduced. Or, they blow it, and we end up with the DBacks. There are other permutations, but those are the best two for the Brewers. I think, right now, I'd lean toward scenario one. I'd like to enter Monday with the Mets only needing to win one game, but having to really go for it.

Nicely done, Ortiz. Still have no idea what combination of results I'm rooting for, in the Braves and DBacks games, but I am always up for some Brewers runs.

For sure. Just pointing out what would be a fascinating scenario. We probably are rooting for the DBacks. Have them pull away, keep the Mets and Braves fighting for just one spot.

Braves have won. Padres lead the DBacks 4-1 in the first. If all results hold, they'll be in a three-way tie for two NL wild card sports. It's baseball. But with the Mets-Braves double-header on Monday, this is really shaping up to be an opportunity for the Crew. All three potential opponents are going to have to play all out with minimal rest. One weird scenario: Imagine the three-way tie holds over the next two days. We enter Monday in a three-way tie. I BELIEVE the Mets and Braves would both qualify in the event they split their double-header. The Braves would qualify by having the best record against the other two teams, and the Mets would then qualify by virtue of owning the season series against the DBacks. So...you'd have a scenario where a split would benefit both teams. They'd both qualify for the postseason. Were one side to sweep, the other side would be eliminated. Things would get very "match-fixy" as the soccer folks say. That would be fascinating. You'd essentially be playing to win game 1, and then not caring at all about game 2. Or you could approach with more sinister intentions, trying to get as much rest as possible.

Hoping Sal will be alright, but, as someone else said, if you're going to lose a main guy, he's one that's not so difficult to replace. Mitchell is fine in right and has hit it better. He'd probably be getting most of the innings anyway, especially as a left-handed hitter. Essentially, you can make the the case Mitchell is just Frelick + about .200 OPS points. I guess the relevant question is how many outfielders you put on the postseason roster. 4? 5? And do you go with Collins? Or Collins and someone else? Hopefully, Sal is fine and can make these kinds of questions moot. Also, I would love to see a footrace between Sanchez and Hoskins. After the season. When there are fewer consequences resulting from any potential injury.

FWIW, I didn't think Frelick really had a shot to catch that. Not going to criticize the dude for the hustle. That's his makeup. It's probably why he's a big-leaguer. Just really too bad he couldn't manage to turn down the intensity a tiny, tiny bit.

Hopefully that's just a hip contusion. Hurts like hell, but if x-rays are negative, he should be able to bring something for the WC round.

Um, maybe Frelick should rev down a little? Love the effort, but dude...

It always rains in Pittsburgh! Surprised they don't lead the world in double-headers. I tried to look this up, but couldn't find it. I'd love to know which stadium has hosted the most DHers in the last decade. I'd have to think Target Field and PNC would both be top 5.

Followed this one through 3, took a few innings off, came back at 8-6. What an awesome 8th inning. I know it doesn't matter in terms of portending anything, but it's stuff like this that makes this team FUN. There's zero point in arguing about "how disappointed will we be if they crash out early?" because we all want this team to win the whole thing. What I will say is that the joy quotient of this team is through the freaking roof. The '21, '22, and '23 teams were painful to watch, despite being very good. Just the emotional exhaustion of trying to win every game 3-2, praying the offense could actually secure some baserunners and the pitching could somehow hold on. It was the least fun I've ever had playing winning baseball. Win or lose in October, this season has been a blast. The process of watching this team has been so many steps beyond that, it's just wild. I hope we get to see them as long as possible. Be great for Milwaukee, be amazing for us, and, yeah, it'd be damn good for baseball. Let's see speed, defense, and balls in play win a World Series.

Silver lining, I suppose, is that we're making it less likely we face the DBacks in round one. Rooting for the Phillies tonight and hoping the Braves hang on in Miami. My ideal scenario, at this point, is that this comes down to the last day between Atlanta and NY. As many high-stress innings for as many of their pitchers as possible is going to be the best way to give the Crew an advantage. It also opens up the option to really approach that Mets series with a "make them throw you pitches" philosophy.

At this point, rooting for the race to come down to the last day may be more beneficial than hoping for a specific opponent. With only one day between the end of the regular season and the start of the Wild Card series, having the Mets, Braves, and DBacks all have to throw their good starters and high-leverage guys would be a win. So, easiest thing is to root for the Braves and against the Mets, and they happen to be playing each other Tues, Wed., Thurs. Beating the DBacks obviously helps a little at the margins too. The closer the race is, the better for us.

They can call it Brewers Devil Magic if they want. All I know is, we've become the team to beat in the division.

NL Central champs! Win tonight and celebrate.

A's take a 4-3 lead vs. the Cubs. 6 defensive outs, and this will be a celebratory atmosphere tonight.

Looks to me like it's coming down to the Mets, DBacks, or Braves. Currently, the Mets and DBacks are tied (assuming Arizona goes on to lose to Colorado tonight--they trail 5-1 in the 7th). The Braves are two back. DBacks lose tiebreakers to both teams. Braves and Mets tiebreaker is TBD, depending on outcome of their final 3-game series. Currently, it's 5-5. Schedules: DBacks go 1 Rockies, 4 Brewers, 3 Giants, 3 Padres Mets go 1 Nats, 4 Phillies, 3 Braves, 3 Brewers Braves go 2 Reds, 3 Marlins, 3 Mets, 3 Royals Mets have the toughest road but also have been playing the best baseball. DBacks have that terrifying lineup, not to mention last year's deep postseason run, which began in a way we'd all prefer to forget. Braves can throw Sale and Reynaldo Lopez in a short series. It's a tough call. I think...the Mets are the team I DON'T want to see. They've really been pitching well, they hate Hoskins, and they got some bona fide good hitters. That leaves ATL and AZ. I can see the Brewers having advantages against either of these teams, although the DBacks offense is maybe the scariest element of any of the three teams. Their pitching is such a mess, though. I think I'd take the Braves if I could pick. It's close, though. And we all know it's random, small sample playoff baseball. The only way it might be worthwhile to face the Mets is if they're having to go all out against the Crew those last three games. Curious to hear what others think. Obviously, the hope is that all three of these teams stick close and come in to the playoffs having had to manage every game with maximizing TOR starts and "A" bullpen innings.

Show me Fernando Vina!!!

Just couldn't get to Wheeler tonight. Dodgers are really struggling and still have a series with the Padres coming up. They go 2 Marlins, 3 Rockies, 3 Padres, 3 Rockies. Brewers pretty much have to hope they go 6-5 and then we close our tougher schedule 9-2. I don't see it, but that's why they play the games, I guess. In better news, Cubs lose! Let's clinch tomorrow!

Bummer not to get the fourth. But I would guess Suarez won't come out for the 5th. Good start to this one.

Just me, or is Rhys looking a lot better at the dish? Love to get that guy going in the playoffs.