Cool Hand Lucroy

Okay. Settle him down, and let's get back at it.

Yeah...You have to figure either he's coming out early, or the Brewers are in the 5-6 run range. Either way, a good start.

Getting to the point where the DBacks are really going to have consider going to the pen here soon. Love to see that. Make them think about it at least.

That dude is fun. When he connects, boy is it pretty.

I sort of like the bunt from Turang there. He's good at it. Make them make a play. Little better bunt would have been nice, though.

Let's go. Good ABs, drive up the pitch count, put some runs on the board!

Contreras needs to run into the hitter there. Gotta at least try to throw that one when he's swinging across your throwing path.

Game 5 of that 2011 series is the one where it all went wrong for me. You get a great performance from Randy Wolf in Game 4 and basically steal one to even the series, and then Greinke's going in Game 5. He gives up a run in the second, but then Hairston boots an easy play, and it's 3-0 instead of 1-0, and the Brewers are toast. I've basically been reliving playoff trauma all week to try to...I don't know. Process it as an act of radical acceptance or whatever. Nothing that can happen in this series will break my heart as much as 2011 or 2018 (watching Chris Taylor turn a pretty sure out into a sure hit only to make it an out again is just the pain that will never go away), so there's that, at least.

I watched enough years of bad baseball to know that you never take a postseason gameday for granted. The build-up, the excitement, the abject terror of defensive half-innings, there's nothing else in sports that compares. So, enjoy it. Enjoy it in all its horrific, painful glory. The Brewers won the division. They had a successful season. They're in great organizational shape, and none of that will change after this beautiful dice roll. Just getting to be part of the dance is what this sport is all about. That being said, I hope we win the whole f----ing thing.

YouTubeTV has a free, 21-day trial for new users. I don't believe ESPN+ has the WC games. The YouTubeTV option also gives you the NLDS, should this series go well. Sling also has a deal where it's 20/month for its ESPN package (which will include TBS for NLDS games).

I'll take Blue Jays in 2. Picking the Twins to lose until proven otherwise (Sorry, Brock...I assure I am rooting for the Twins, just feeling my wife's Minnesota sports fatalism more and more all the time). Marlins in 3 (when Miami makes the playoffs, they win the WS). Rays in 2. DBacks in 3. We're good. We're probably better. I just think the DBacks can win in more ways. The Brewers have a TON of pressure on them Game 1. The DBacks can lose Game 1, get a low-scoring win Game 2, and then be in the driver's seat. I hope I'm wrong. I'll be all-in emotionally no matter what.

Alright. This sucks. A few thoughts, some more optimistic than others: 1) For his entire career, Woody has been one of the pitchers I've trusted most. He's just a horse. Cool, great personality, a franchise stalwart. Feel terrible for him. Yuck. 2) This obviously hurts our (already very small) chances of winning the WS. Boo. 3) It's also the baked-in risk of building a team around pitching. Pitchers get hurt. I'm not saying I'd rather the org take a different approach (I think the opposite, actually). But we've been pretty lucky on the injury front on the pitching side. Bad time for that to change. 4) I'm not sure this has an intense impact on our Wild Card odds. FanDuel moved from Dbacks +154 to Dbacks +124 and now has seemingly stabilized at +126, Beyond that, of course, it's hard to estimate the aggregated impact. For now, though, it really just means Peralta has to pitch Game 2, and Game 3 becomes a BP-heavy affair. 5) As another poster mentioned, this staff is still way better than 2018. Houser has a better FIP than Chacin did that year. Pitched fewer innings too, so might be fresher. Essentially, Houser/Miley/Rea are going to have to give you the 40 outs or so you would have got from Woodruff in the Wild Card and NLDS rounds, with some BP guys taking on a little added workload maybe too. I would have Rea on the roster because I think he's pitched pretty darn well lately (4ER in 20IP against decent competition). 6) Bottom line: this team needs magic to make a deep run. Baseball teams, even really good ones, always do. That 2011 Packers team had it. 2021 Bucks did too. Both had to deal with massive injury-related difficulties. We'll need more magic than we would have to get deep into October, but not that much more than we otherwise would have to get to an NLCS, especially considering Woody would only have gotten 2 starts in the first potentially 8 postseason games.

Anyone who wanted to face the Marlins must be forgetting: Brewers first-round playoff record vs. NL East? 0-3 (2-7 all games). Brewers first-round playoff record vs. NL West? 2-0 (6-2 all games). May the trend continue.

So, going into the final three, the Cubs will need to gain a game on the Marlins to make the playoffs. They may need to gain two, depending on the finish of the Marlins-Mets game. Marlins took a 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth, currently in a rain delay, doesn't look like there's much of a window to finish tonight. Might mean they have to play half an inning in New York on Monday. The Reds are a game and a half out, a game behind the Cubs. At this point, my desire to avoid the Cubs is mostly emotional. I just don't want those stakes. Objectively, though, the Marlins, Reds, and Cubs are all deeply flawed teams (Cubs maybe most of all giving the lack of pitching options). Best case scenario for the Brewers is probably something involving the Marlins having to play an inning on Monday and then fly to Milwaukee to play in the WC series. That's a tough scenario to make happen, though, since the Marlins hold tiebreakers over the Reds and Cubs and in case of a three-way tiebreaker. They would only have to finish that game if a) they can't finish tonight and b) they finish a half game behind somebody. Still, I think I'd rather play the Marlins than anyone, if only to help maintain Central Division bragging rights no matter what. I'd prefer to win this Cubs series, then let the chips fall where they may. That makes it pretty unlikely the Cubs come to Milwaukee. Though I do think we'll be decent-sized favorites over all three likely opponents (and slim ones over the D-Backs should they get swept this weekend).

This was a great article. Good work.

3 division titles in 6 years. Never thought I'd write that as a Brewer fan. What this FO and organization has accomplished since CC took the helm is incredible. Such a well-run organization. We're the Rays of the NL!

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Oof. Suzuki. Drops one and then whiffs on a pitch way off the plate. One more! There is no bad way to clinch a division!

Ghost of Brant Brown!!!

In case anyone needs to know the state of the Cubs bullpen, Drew Smyly is now on in the 8th inning of a one-run game the Cubs really, really want to win.

Anyone know the Brewers record when trailing after 7? I'd be curious. I know they've won all of 1 game when trailing after 8, but that number's probably pretty low for most teams.

A note re: the Cubs. Ross is having to do a lot of heavy BP management. Assad had been starting. Now he's coming in a high-leverage hold situation. Alzolay is down. Fulmer is down. Nobody in that group is really trustworthy, so it's full mix-and-match mode in Chicago. That's going to be tough to maintain for five more difficult games, plus a playoff series.

This is just one of those games where Mikolas pitched pretty well, and the Brewers failed in their one big moment. I have nothing to back this up, but it seems to me like the Brewers are really good at creating one or two golden opportunities for a 3-run outburst every game. When they take those opportunities, they usually win. When they don't, it's tough sledding. It's especially tough when the potential big inning happens early. When they fail there, it often seems the offense struggles to create more chances. That'll have to change in the playoffs, which are all about continual pressure.

It's no fun to lose baseball games, especially when just one win basically makes the whole season a success. But this is definitely a case of good things come to those wait. Patience. We're going to score runs this series. The Braves are going to score runs too. I'd bet a lot of money on those runs being enough one of the next four games. There's also probably a better chance either of these two teams comes back tonight than the Brewers end up losing the next six. And, even if they do lose the next six and lose the division, they'll get to go to Wrigley and make up for it anyway. These are like the epitome of all-reward, no-risk games. At least as far as baseball goes. Nature of the sport.

I mean...it COULD. But if you assume coin flip per game, with 7 games left, that gives you a 3.5% chance.