Cool Hand Lucroy

This can only be justified by short-term market logic, and it's long-term bad for society and the game. I'm no fan of the sports books (it's fine for gambling to be 10-20% of our relationship to sports, but it's become so much more), but at least they a) are restricted to sports and b) have a deep and vested in ensuring that markets are insulated from insider trading and bet-rigging. Obviously, there are deep concerns about part B, but nobody WANTS game fixing, and the entire business is predicated on some foundational level of trust in the bet menu. Polymarket not only lets people literally bet directly on mass death, but it's incredibly hard to police. Anybody can trade on insider info all the time, and the regulatory space is super ill-defined. Why MLB wants to open that door, I have no clue, other than some oversimplified intro business course some commish crony took once as an undergrad. Bad deal for everybody.

Looking forward to a few tips on Saturday: Michigan-SLU: Tough break for SLU having to turn around and play the early game after finishing after midnight Eastern last night. Three teams scored 100 Thursday. These are two of them. Should be fun. I'm skeptical that SLU's offense will work against Mara and Yaxel (if I were Dusty, I'd just station one of both of them in the paint and not late the Billikens get those easy cuts to the rim), but Georgia had a week to prepare and looked like they were playing on ice. If nothing else, expect points. Duke-TCU: Let's see if the Blue Devils learned anything from getting pushed to the absolute brink by Siena. The injuries are catching up to them a little bit, and, as Badger fans saw up close, the Frogs are a dangerous team. If there's a 1-seed upset lurking, it's probably this one. Louisville-Michigan St.: Two very balanced teams, one of whom wants to play relatively slow (MSU) and one of whom wants to run (Louisville). Looks like the Cardinals have Brown healthy enough to contribute. One hall of fame coach against one who might get there when all is said and done. Two big, big names in the sport, both of whom have been under the radar lately, for different reasons. Nebraska-Vandy: GAME OF THE DAY. OKC going to be rocking with Husker fans. I think Vandy is a sneaky FF team. They looked like far and away the best 5 on the board; you could argue they deserved a three. Put that up against the best team in Nebraska history, and you're going to get a very meaningful S16 for somebody. Expect off-the-charts intensity in this one. Nebraska would be the vibes favorite, but Vandy's the better team (the bookmakers seem to be on board with that--'Dores a 1.5-pt. favorite). Must-see. VCU-Illinois could be fun (I could see anything from a narrow Rams win to an Illinois blowout); same for Gonzaga-Texas. That's six games with a ton of potential. I'm not sure High Point can keep it going against Arkansas and Acuff (the Hogs terrified me as a potential Badger opponent--I think they're another great SEC team), but always good to see a mid-major playing for a S16. Houston-Texas A&M feels like the clunker of the day, but maybe that press works against the Cougars. It's March!

5-second call late with a timeout in the pocket. Oof.

Just two morning after thoughts. Good to see the High Point coach call out the scheduling issues that really hurt D-1 hoops as a whole, both in the on-court postgame and the presser. He's right. I'd actually like to see Gard schedule more home-and-homes and neutral site games against good mid-majors. Go to Illinois State or Bradley (Wardle has such Wisconsin connections, I'm shocked this game hasn't happened already). Play UIC or Loyola in Milwaukee (honestly, I really miss the in-state round-robin that was part of this schedule for so many years--when Iowa lost the Des Moines showcase where ISU and Iowa played Drake and UNI, it really symbolized the consolidation of power in the sport). I know scheduling space is limited. And I know high-majors want home games, but the basketball benefit to a game like that is so much better than hosting the kinds of buy-game opponents we usually see. Seeing teams like that can really help when you're up against a good 11, 12, or 13 in March. A few years back I think we played (and lost to) Saint Mary's on a neutral, but that might have been an MTE. At the very least, I'd like to see something like BracketBusters come back. The idea that something like that wouldn't benefit EVERYONE (you're telling me coaches wouldn't scout potential transfer candidates?) is pretty crazy to me. Second, you know a healthy Winter makes the difference in a one-point game. I thought our bigs were really bothered by High Point's skill on the wings and in the post. The defense was a bugaboo all year. It looked like it was improving in late February and March, but some old habits came back to bite. We'll finish in the 50s in defensive efficiency at KenPom, which isn't going to get it done most years, even with a borderline top-10 offense. I like the shift to a more up-tempo style. It's important for drawing talent in this era. But you've got to be able to gel that talent on both ends of the floor. Something was missing on that end this year, and hopefully they can fix it as they build to next season.

Yeah, bingo! I said to my wife, "up eight heading into the last couple media timeouts, you feel pretty good." Not to be today. One thing that surprised me was the athleticism of High Point's guards, especially Martin. That guy was outstanding today. They go 15/40 from 3, outscore us by 18 there, and Johnston goes 4/6 off the bench. Kid has 1 two-point FG all year, and it's the game-winner. That's March. I have seen so many mid-major wins unfold just like that. A confident team, launching triples, good guards, and they get a big contribution from off the bench. Not making excuses, but early tip out West seemed to impact us a little bit too. Also, add Louisville to the list of schools that fired a solid coach and then wandered the wilderness. Gard's the right guy here, and he deserves more credit than he gets.

Games like that are what the tournament is about. It sucks to be on the other side of it, but that was one of those classic March games everyone not in the Cardinal and White will appreciate. As others have said, Boyd is a super fun player. He had a great year and shouldn't get blamed. That said, there did need to be more touches for Blackwell down the stretch. High Point played with more freedom and fluidity, and being unable to extend an 8-point lead with about 8 minutes to go really hurt. Obviously, the last two offensive possessions were really not good. Rohde had Blackwell open at about midcourt, and I'd just rather him dribble into a 35-footer there than through to the FT line. Even if Rapp catches that, he's not Laetner. 2 seconds left, I get it, but still. The 11 seconds possession was worse. High Point played it perfectly, and it was emblematic of the late game stall. A lot of standing around watching Boyd. Winter obviously not 100%, didn't get much from Carrington and I thought a pretty poor performance from AB, who looked like he didn't belong in a game played at that pace. Some things you'd like back, but, like @Jim French Stepstool said, it's hard to rewrite too much. Sometimes, the other guys have a moment, and Johnston got his. That's what it takes for mids to win, and this one unfolded to the upset script. Feel for a team and coaching staff that's going to take a lot of unfair criticism. You want to know what it's like for basketball to be truly irrelevant, go ahead and fire a coach that's been a consistently good seed in March. Ask Minnesota or Memphis how that can work out.

Great effort by Turang on the SB in the ninth. I mean, if he were Javy Baez he'd have gotten the out, but... Hoping Chourio gets a big AB here in the ninth.

I'll take the L on UMBC. 🫣

Team Chourio for me! Hoping the atmosphere is as electric as last night. Been fun! And when it ends, there's just a little over a week until Opening Day.

He and Frelick can both race as the Italian.

Zerpa in line for the win. Chourio the rally starter.

Yeah, the seeding gets SUPER funky at the bottom of the bracket. Cal Baptist has some really good predictives. They're borderline top 100 at KenPom, and I'm guessing the committee kind of just defaults to that when it comes to the final 16 teams. Plus, the WAC was quite good this year, albeit on the strength of about two teams (Utah Valley would've had a shot to pull an upset, I think, had they pulled out a win late this past weekend). Of course, if they're looking at KenPom, there's no excuse for UMBC to be in a play-in game. Double conference champ, decent predictives, probably a 15 and definitely not headed to Dayton. they're 1.5 pt favorites (at even money) against Howard, and that looks juicy if you're into that sort of thing. I do have to say, this is the best bracket I've seen in a while. At the very least, Selection Committee chair did a good job giving actual answers, and bonus points that they were logical. Probably the most egregious thing that matters is Vandy as a 5. That team has been a sleeper F4 team for me all year, and they're playing really well. They get a tough McNeese matchup, but I think they'll be alright. I know Duke is banged up, but it feels like their year to me. Ohio State is probably the best 8, but I'm not sweating anyone else in that region.

The other thing to note is that the Badgers are in Portland, which is a long, long trip. That's the case for everyone in the pod. You might be able to win a bar bet (and maybe a free beer!) by asking which school of the four had to travel farthest. It's Hawai'i. Badgers and Arkansas are both about 1600 miles by air. At least there's no altitude to worry about.

I like the High Point matchup. They're pacy. The worst matchup would have been a grind it down team like UNI IMO. HPU basically plays UW's style with less talent. As others said, maybe they shoot the lights out, and we don't, but, of all the 12s, this is the one I'd have wanted. Arkansas, on the other hand? Yikes. I guess I'd rather get them than Bama, but was hoping for Kansas. Acuff will be the best player on the floor, and the athleticism on that side is going to be a huge advantage in the frontcourt. Plus, that team is smoking hot. Hawaii is very talented (I think they're better than High Point tell the truth), so maybe they clip the Hogs. Or maybe UW has really learned defensive cohesion and they give Cal trouble. Wouldn't be the first time. Some great games up and down the bracket. Looking forward to Thursday!

I know a lot of people feel this way, but can baseball always be like this? The USA-Canada game and the Japan-Venezuela one were so fun over the last two days. Every team has a clear rooting interest. It's like the best kind of spectacle, where I really don't care who wins because so many fun stories abound. I think I'm part venezolano for the next few days, if I had to choose. But I love the atmosphere and energy and joy and fun happening. Baseball is cool.

Good point on Rohde. Definitely an error from Carrington, but one you understand. Michigan can hurt you so many ways, and that felt like Mara was going to be option A and B. If Winter comes back (seems very likely) and they can keep Rapp and AB, that's a really strong front court. Who knows what happens with Blackwell, but, point is, I love the way those two bigs have gotten better in the second half here. Nice to see Garlock and Jones getting some minutes too.

Hard to feel AT ALL bad about that one. Fun basketball game. UW is basically the only team (aside from Duke) that's given Michigan all they can handle. Over 80 minutes, it's dead even, and neither game was at the Kohl. Badgers had a foul to give that last possession. I would've given it, but the much bigger issue is just completely losing Yaxel. Honestly? I can kind of live with that shot (you'd obviously like a better close out). Mara had gotten so many easy ones late that a 22-footer, even a wide open one, feels reasonable. He hit it, all credit to him. Badgers had two and a half stretches (one to start the game and one to start the second half) where they really struggled to score. They also couldn't capitalize on three possessions in a row at the end of the game. One an AB shot I didn't like (early clock, Rapp was on fire). One a decent look from Boyd for three. One Boyd missing in the lane. Other than that, it's the turnovers. Sloppy with the ball. Maybe some tired legs. Rohde was a spark early, so big credit to him. The thing you absolutely have to take away is that the defensive was very, very good. If they guard like that? This is a sleeper Final Four team. I know that's the case for pretty much everyone, but still. To say that after where they were after dropping the game versus Villanova and getting blown out in Lincoln is really something. It's March! Anything can happen. They could lose in a horrible performance on Thursday morning. But you really couldn't ask this team to be in a better spot than where they are right now. Hopefully the matchups cooperate, and this thread is still nice and active on the second weekend. This looks like a group that has a real shot to get Gard back there.

I had a similar thought. I don't think Miami has any business in Dayton,but I imagine it goes that way because the committee can easily justify it as a "compromise" between poor computer numbers and an undefeated regular season. Shrug. One of the massive issues in CBB is the abject fear big programs have of scheduling capable mids, especially in road/neutral environments. To earn an at-large Miami had to basically win every game. That they did it and still might end up one of the last four in, when the rest of bubble is SO bad, reflects poorly on the sport. Put them in the big bracket already (and away from UW).

I know the 12-5 scares folks, but I still think you'd much rather be a 5. Positions you much better for a shot at the second weekend. I think that's especially true this year, where the bubble is weak, weak, weak. Between that and a lot of 1 seeds (Belmont, Wilmington, etc) losing in the one-bid leagues, the bottom of the bracket could be soft. 11 seeds might well be undefeated Miami OH and SEC/B1G schools, or SMU or something. Full respect for a team like Northern Iowa or Liberty or South Florida, but I think you'd prefer them over any of those others.

We ran two very bad out of bounds plays late, one a TO and one the long outlet to Carrington who's not the guy you want at the line there. Still, that's easy to see and call out because this team did so many things well tonight. One thing I noticed is that, a few times in the last ten minutes and OT, Boyd was in a hurry to switch back on Wagler, even though Rapp's length and size seemed to bother him. Toward the very end, UW let Rapp guard, and he mostly did a great job. Similar vein, Rhode got left on an island in the paint a few times, but I think that wasn't as bad as the commentary made it seem. Sometimes you'll give up a two to avoid an open kick. Credit to Illinois for finding the mismatch. After the Badgers took a lead and then Illinois came back to tie it in the second half, they took a timeout. Gard drew up a great play to get Blackwell an open 3. Huge possession. Free throws made a huge difference late. I worry a little bit about hanging on to leads late with this team, but they were awesome today. Sometimes I think they do go into clock melt mode a little quickly, though that felt more like the case yesterday than today. Can't say enough about the guards and Rapp. He's really stepped up in all aspects. Is it crazy to think the Badgers have a shot at a 4? I mean, they should really be seeded equal to or better than Purdue. Feels like a 6 is the absolute floor, regardless of manana.

You said it last week. Twos versus threes. Purdue shot it well, but they put up a lot of 8-10-footers that were well contested. The numbers won't show it, but I thought Rapp and AB did a decent job of avoiding fouls and forcing tough-ish shots. Then, on the other end, you had Boyd getting to the rim at will late, a lot of nice dishes for easy layups, and open corner threes. This is not a defensively impressive team, but they do force inefficient shots a lot of the time. That's gold in March. I also loved Rapp, AB, and Rhode being aggressive. They stepped confidently into open looks. No timidity. Gotta have that with Winter out. Speaking of, I didn't see Nolan on the bench? Assume he didn't make the trip. I saw the "day-to-day" update, but it looked vague in a "let's not give the committee any reason to downgrade our seed" kind of way. Be very surprised if he sees the floor next week or if we get a substantive update. Good news is, it's looking more and more like this team is going to be on the 5 or 6 line, which is perfectly positioned to do damage. Sweet 16 should be the goal, but it'll take two very strong efforts.

The obvious solution, though, is to stop self-selecting so much for velocity. Breaking stuff is obviously stressful on the arm too, but being able to really command 90-92 (or, given modern training, 93-94) with a good change can still work in MLB, especially in an era of shorter starts. In a lot of ways, Freddy used this model earlier in his career, and he's been quite durable. Priester took a jump in velo last year, which probably factors into both his success and this news. Better training and conditioning can increase velo without increasing injury risk, but only by so much. The limits of evolutionary biology are real. I think there may need to be a market correction toward command rather that "stuff" if we're going to decrease IL stints for pitchers. If a pitch jumps out for its spin, velo, and trajectory, it's a good bet, in most cases, the effort of throwing it consistently for years is going to create long-term problems.

Oof. Nothing game, and Winter looks to have badly sprained his ankle. I've seen some amazing things with ankles the last decade, but you hope there isn't a tendon or fracture involved. You're looking at two weeks before a round one game. That's probably pretty quick for anything other than a mild sprain. Hope Rapp and JB are ready for a big step up.

Jekyll and Hyde road trip, but probably the better split from a resume perspective. Yesterday was the perfect example of how hard this team will be to beat if they make their threes. Of course, Wednesday was a case of why they'll be seeded mid-bracket. Blackwell has looked a bit tentative lately. Just not hopping around like we've seen at other times. Hopefully just a case of the February doldrums. Obviously be nice to add a big win or two in these last two weeks, but we're at the point where health seems more important. Just don't lose to Maryland, and you'll have to feel pretty good about where this team sits heading into the postseason.

Yeah, I thought Iowa played very well, but maybe got sucked in by a fool's gold first half. They didn't have much of a shot to keep up with that tempo, and the Badgers ran away with it in the 4th quarter. It also helps when you've got Boyd AND Blackwell. Stirtz is great, but Iowa is looking for a 2nd and 3rd scorer each night, and their victories are dependent on finding one. When Boyd has the game he did, and Rapp and Winter both get multiple triples, it's going to be tough to beat the Badgers anywhere, let alone at the Kohl. Second Jones getting some nice minutes. With Janicki hurt, he's going to have to put in some good stretches. Going 3-2 in a stretch of 5 straight Q1 games (we'll see if Iowa hangs onto that as the season ends) is a very good result. Minnesota hovering around 75 in the NET, and that's currently Q1 too, which makes the Badgers 5-7 in those games. If they grab one or two more and avoid bad losses, that should avoid the 8-9 lines by a ways, especially when you consider the quality of wins. I'm comfortable saying this is a tournament team, and they've finally got the profile to match.