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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    That's a great point. I guarantee Kris Bryant and Boras remember how he was held back before being called up. They've tried locking him up long term and he's resisted. I would be very surprised if he stays in Chicago, barring an overpay. I feel like Bryant is going to end up on the Dodgers in 2-3 years when his team control is up.
  2. KeithStone53151
    I'm ok with the pick. I'm glad we targeted pitching. They've been big on guys with funky deliveries, this fits the bill. I'm personally less interested in the flamethrowing type aside from relievers. Everyone can throw mid 90s these days, I'm more intrigued by control and offspeed the last couple years than pure velocity. This is all just opinion of course. Here's hoping it pans out. I'm also hopeful he's able to regain a bit more of that velocity as he fully matures and distances himself from TJ.
  3. KeithStone53151
    This. People can come up with every excuse in the book to justify this move, but we just sent down a hitter that has helped us win games for a hitter who probably cost us games when he wasn't on the DL. This move stinks. Hiura has made this team better offensively, and it is highly doubtful that his defense is any worse than Shaw/Moose at 2B. This is a backwards move. Just stupid. +1. And Hiura will only get better with more reps at the MLB level, especially considering he's 22.
  4. KeithStone53151
    Hey if you want to use something that isn't errors we could point to his horrendous weak arm or the terrible range it creates. He also had one wicked throw the other day when he had no chance at 1B that probably lands 10 rows deep into the stands more often than not. He was not pretty in his short stint...and honestly, never will be good. I would guess never even average. That is okay though because I don't think he needs to be, but that doesn't change the fact his defense is not good. I definitely didn't see every inning, but I saw a decent amount of Hiura and only saw 1 error(throw off a players back...which is fluky) and saw great hands/footwork at 2b. And his arm didn't look all that weak to me, especially on a few of the double plays he turned...most notably in that extra innings game in Pittsburgh. He probably could use a bit more consistency to avoid the errors, but I think he's fine/solid at 2b. Makes the routine plays for the most part, and of course mashes the baseball.
  5. KeithStone53151
    I think you are wildly overexagerating Hiura's defense. He's much better defensively at 2b than you're giving him credit. You're talking like he's Braun at 3b. Had 4 errors in 17 games or an error every 4.25 games. Braun made an error every 4.3 games at 3B. Now, I don’t think he’s Braun bad but I also don’t think he’s very good there. Needs work. He will get that playing regularly in AAA. Because errors are all that matters in fielding...
  6. KeithStone53151
    I'm going to remember this thread if/when Shaw is terrible and we miss the playoffs by 1 or 2 games. He had more time he could have spent in AAA including his option. This move didn't need to happen yet.
  7. KeithStone53151
    that lineup doesn't include Shaw. It would certainly look a lot worse putting a 550 OPS hitter in there.
  8. KeithStone53151
    I'm likely going to get destroyed for this opinion, but since they are sending Hiura down anyway I wouldn't hate seeing him get some reps at either first base or left field while back in San Antonio. I think having him with the flexibility to alternate between a couple of defensive positions for at least limited innings would be helpful late in the season. The obvious counter is that he hasn't exactly mastered the second base position yet, so maybe additional reps at 2B are too valuable to waste. I think you answered it yourself. Until he can play 2B reasonably well it’d be hard to have him get reps elsewhere. I think you are wildly overexagerating Hiura's defense. He's much better defensively at 2b than you're giving him credit. You're talking like he's Braun at 3b.
  9. KeithStone53151
    I'm likely going to get destroyed for this opinion, but since they are sending Hiura down anyway I wouldn't hate seeing him get some reps at either first base or left field while back in San Antonio. I think having him with the flexibility to alternate between a couple of defensive positions for at least limited innings would be helpful late in the season. The obvious counter is that he hasn't exactly mastered the second base position yet, so maybe additional reps at 2B are too valuable to waste. I don't think it would be THAT bad a decision considering, but we have so much roster flexibility that I don't think it's necessary. Thames/Aguilar/Shaw/Moose/Perez/Grandal/in a pinch Braun...can all play 1b. Cain/Yelich/Braun/Gamel/Perez/Thames can all play corner OF. If we were less flexible, it would be a better idea.
  10. KeithStone53151
    The Brewers are better with Hiura, Shaw and Moose all playing at a high level. You cannot get that if Shaw is not playing at all. Shaw can play at AAA until he can learn to hit meatballs down the middle. 3 weeks ago...he couldn't even do that. I wish I would have seen him take BP I bet he was swinging and missing even at BP pitches.
  11. KeithStone53151
    Come on man..I dont like the move either but how about we don't cheer against the best interests of the team? It is in the best interest of the team. Shaw is not as good as Hiura, even at his best. In my opinion, the Brewers are better with Hiura at 2b and Moose at 3b than Moose at 2b and Shaw at 3b. This is a bad decision that is going to cost us wins. Shaw has done nothing at AAA to indicate he's ready to hit MLB pitching at an acceptable clip. I would rather him tank for 2 weeks and make the correct decision that much more obvious to the decision makers, I think it results in more wins than if Shaw were mediocre(650ish OPS) for 2 months while Hiura destroys AAA pitching.
  12. KeithStone53151
    I honestly hope Shaw is terrible for the next 2 weeks so we bring Hiura back. I don't want him to hit like 2 HR over the next 2 weeks while striking out 40% of the time and management to think he's close to breaking out. I fear they'll give Shaw way way way too much lee-way in trying to figure it out...and cost us too many games.
  13. KeithStone53151
    I thought he looked pretty good from what I've seen. I didn't see everything and saw none of his errors, but he's seemed generally capable. He has quick hands and good actions in general. Probably could use a few more reps to get more consistent, but that isn't much of a reason to send him down. He's better at 2b defensively than Moose/Shaw.
  14. KeithStone53151
    Your roster construction would rely on hoping a 22-year old carries you the rest of the year. Mine would be to get as many of our players going as possible. I'll take my chances that the latter would be in the best interest for the Brewers. Also, Thames has an OPS of .850. To say that he is struggling is just a downright lie. I quoted the number I used to say he's struggling. He might have hit well in April in very limited AB, but he's struggled in May. He's sporting a 34% k rate and 369 BABIP. So even his full season OPS is very lucky. If you want to get all our players going, why not keep shaw at AAA? The MLB club is not where you try and get guys going, results come first and he's terrible right now. It would do him good to see worse pitching as it might help him get going. Rather than go up there and flail miserably against MLB pitching and hurt the mlb club. Did you even watch the guy play before going on the DL? I was watching this guy swing through meatball fastballs down the middle regularly. I bet he was whiffing like crazy in pre-game BP...he was THAT BAD. The Brewers needed game 163 to win the division last year. Every game matters. We'll win more now if Hiura is playing 2b regularly and Shaw is in AAA getting consistent atbats. When Shaw learns how to not swing through 92 mph fastballs down the middle, maybe then we consider bringing him back.
  15. KeithStone53151
    Yep. This was my point. This team needs Shaw to get going. Keith talked about three guys struggling. Who are these three guys? Aguilar is the only one who is struggling and even he has done much better lately compared to his start. Just glad the Brewers FO doesn't make decisions so hastily. The three struggling guys are obviously Shaw/Aguilar/Thames. OPS of 335/708/686 OPS in the month of May. I don't care if 708 OPS is better than his start, it's still not good enough for 1b on a contender. Look what Rizzo/Freeman/Muncy/Hoskins are doing. We need a 1b doing something closer to that. If Hiura is going to rake at 2b, we don't necessarily NEED Shaw to get going. I don't think the very best version of Shaw is as good as Hiura, and right now he's at his very worst. Why send Hiura down to hope that Shaw can be maybe 90% as productive as Hiura has been? Also, a full season at this level for Hiura likely means even more improvement next year. He's a budding star, where as Shaw at his best is maybe the 4th or 5th best 3b in the NL.
  16. KeithStone53151
    It is? That would seem to me to be the definition of a subjective statement. I sure am glad that the Brewers' front office doesn't give up on players as easily and as quickly as we do around here. I suppose maybe a little. Hiura is likely to be an impact talent for 6 cost controlled years. Shaw has 2+ years of team control at most...and if he doesn't start hitting his tenure might be done at the end of the year.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Except I don't really view it as jams. None of our 1b are hitting, the only jam is which of the 3 struggling hitters should play 1b...and then I guess Gamel is arguably jammed for playing time in the OF to some degree. You are proposing sending a guy down that's hitting so a guy that hasn't hit all year can play. Also it's completely indisputable that Hiura is more important to the team going forward than Shaw.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I tend to agree, not a good match. There are a good number of 1b/DH options available in trade, Encarnacion is not the best but he's definitely the most expensive from a $ standpoint. Also factor in our payroll is already fairly stretched.
  19. KeithStone53151
    Isn't that what a projection is though? For stat projections for a player that's fine, I just wish they didn't use those to try and figure out team records. Especially midway through the season. There's better data/criteria they can use that isn't so flawed. I personally think stat projections are completely useless, so when those get incorporated into projecting team records...it pretty much ruins them.
  20. KeithStone53151
    Right, I'm sure the model is working appropriately. It's also working off of likely very flawed projections. Probably some combination of preseason projections slightly modified. Yep, all flawed in some way no doubt to varying degress. Fangraphs seems to be currently the worst at figuring out the Brewers. They just as easily could be the best predictor for other teams. I think what FG struggles with most is the way the Brewers play splits so heavily. Both on the hitting and pitching side. Agreed. Projections systems are all terrible at projecting out regression on older players and everything on young players. So big markets with name players tend to get over projected and young players tend to get underprojected. They also are really bad at factoring bullpens in general. I would like to see a projections system look at run differential, strength of schedule, current record...measurable facts vs projections...and project off that. I think all the projection models look too much at how players are going to do going forward...which they are simply terrible at.
  21. KeithStone53151
    Right, I'm sure the model is working appropriately. It's also working off of likely very flawed projections. Probably some combination of preseason projections slightly modified.
  22. KeithStone53151
    I haven't been a believer in Grisham for a couple years now. Over his last 10 games, 410 avg with 4 hr, 9 bb, and 3 ks. Jeez, it's like he's playing with cheat codes.
  23. KeithStone53151
    Kinda crazy, in the AL the 5 playoff teams already seem locked in and we have 100 games yet to play. The highest odds on fangraphs aside from those top 5 is the 29-30 Indians at 29.6%, next highest is under 10%. In the NL, all but 4 teams have over 10% odds. I also find it a bit annoying that we're 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs but they have significantly better odds of winning the division. They really aren't THAT much better than us on paper...if at all.
  24. KeithStone53151
    I'm not so sure these IL stays are phantom stays. I don't think perfectly healthy players would agree to simply accept an IL stint. Especially someone like Gio who is hurting his market value and/or bonuses for IP/starts. They might be a touch exaggerated, but I highly doubt there isn't at least some truth to them. I'm also super excited to see Jimmy on Wednesday. I hope everyone tempers their expectations a bit. He hasn't pitched in the majors in 2 years and I believe I've seen reports of diminished velocity. His results in AAA also have been very mediocre. It will still be nice to see him pitch again.
  25. KeithStone53151
    It seems like it would be crazy to send Hiura down. Hiura is such an important cog in our lineup as a RH hitter that is hitting right now. Braun has been solid, but Cain/Aguilar have been bad lately. Hiura is so important for balance in 5-7 spots in the lineup. I don't think the Cain/Yelich/Braun/Moose/Grandal top 5 is going to change much anytime soon. Most often, it will be Thames/Shaw batting 7th...so having a RH hitter that's actually a threat hitting 6th is huge to keep teams from running a LH reliever out from Moose through Thames/Shaw without potential punishment. I know Grandal has been hitting LHP this year, but that's probably small sample as he's much better as a LH hitter. Aside from lineup/balance reasons, the kid deserves to stay. He's been hitting so well, especially after a somewhat rough first couple weeks. He's also been surprisingly solid defensively. He helped turn a couple critical double plays in that extra innings game against Pitt that were absolutely not easy plays. I don't think Shaw or Moose have the hands/footwork to make those turns. The Brewers can try to play roster games to keep all their talent, but eventually 1 of Shaw/Aguilar/Thames is gonna have to go. Especially since if I had my way about things, we'd be trading for Justin Smoak over the next 2 months and all those guys would have their playing time disappear.
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