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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    There's a pretty significant gap between him and the next guy as well. Hard to not expect a much better season based on that.
  2. KeithStone53151
    Iglesias, Hughes, Romano, Garrett, Duke, Lorenzen...all decent or better options in the bullpen. It isn't a bullpen like ours, but in reality what other team has a bullpen like ours? Maybe 1 or 2 others? And it's a massive stretch to say Winker is better than Puig, and Senzel is coming back from injury and is on roughly the same timeline as Hiura for MLB impact. Plus, Senzel will probably play CF, not a corner. A lot of my projection of the Reds being an upper 80s win team involves DJ helping their staff quite a bit. They have a few seriously talented pitchers on that roster that simply haven't posted results to this point. If that doesn't happen, they probably top out around 81 or 82 wins barring a deadline firesale...which would knock them lower.
  3. KeithStone53151
    I tend to agree that I'm kinda meh on whether I like it from the Brewers side. Moreso adding some stats in as you noted that you didn't think his 2018 was fluky. I think it was a little fluky, not a massive outlier by any stretch but he was more than just a little lucky. I think if he was unlucky instead...to the degree that he was lucky and sported a .320 BABIP, he might be closer to a 4 ERA than a 2.8 ERA with maybe 10 less innings. And yeah you make a good point about the pitchers available. I'm sure they are comfortable with what they have in this guy, I just don't see a ton of potential surplus value here. Best realistic case scenario for the Cardinals is this guy is worth roughly as much as his contract pays, with quite a bit of risk.
  4. KeithStone53151
    .279 BABIP on his batted ball profile is pretty lucky. Putting up a sub 3 era with a 6.55 k/9 is pretty lucky. It certainly helps that he basically walks nobody. Considering how often the ball is in play when a guy has such a low k rate and bb rate, having a very favorable BABIP will seriously swing a guys ERA. Also factor in the Cardinals are going to have a few weak spots on defense this year. Carpenter at 3b, Gyorko will probably play some 2b, Martinez sometimes in corner OF. I can't see this guy posting another sub 3 era season. He'll probably settle in the upper 3s somewhere over the 3 combined seasons, with his 33 and 34 seasons probably being underwhelming.
  5. KeithStone53151
    So his current year $8M contract remains intact. So this covers seasons 31-34.
  6. KeithStone53151
    I can't decide if I like this from the Brewers perspective. There's enough of a chance that he caught the league off-guard last year as a brand new arm, he didn't really get worse down the stretch though as guys saw him more. There's also the argument against signing a guy on the wrong side of 30 to that much $s and years.
  7. KeithStone53151
  8. KeithStone53151
    I feel like many are ignoring the Coors effect with Arenado. 832, 882, 772...his road OPS the last 3 seasons. Thats a very solid OPS, but is that a top 5 position player in baseball OPS? Even with elite defense I don't think so.
  9. KeithStone53151
    I feel like we are about 4 years from saying what a mistake this contract was, but right now...players and agents are pretty happy about the move.
  10. KeithStone53151
  11. KeithStone53151
    I saw this too, there's also potential for an 8th year vesting option from what I saw. That seems like a very good deal for Arenado, I know it only takes him through age 34(35 if vesting option)...but tough to turn down that money. That AAV is insane. If that offer is real, I can't imagine an agreement not being reached by opening day(or much sooner).
  12. KeithStone53151
    I guess I'm in the minority as one that thinks the Reds are going to be very very good this year. I previously predicted the Reds ahead of the Cubs and am sticking to that. The Reds were a very good offensive team last year, and I think DJ could be a very positive influence on some very talented arms the Reds have. I'm also expecting Puig to finish in the top 10 of MVP voting, I feel like the whole contract year thing is going to make him focus and be much better than he was with the Dodgers.
  13. KeithStone53151
    I have a couple Cardinals questions for you. Are you concerned about O'Neill and Martinez getting less atbats, or generally about your team being too RH? Your only LH options are Carpenter, Wong, and Fowler(S)...and frankly Fowler should never play, and even Wong will sit a decent number of games for Gyorko and Munoz. Do you have concerns about the rotation with Martinez moving to the bullpen and Wainwright moving to LR(that's the vibe I got from you)? Mikolas, Flaherty, Wacha, and...? I wouldn't count on 180 innings from Reyes. I feel like the Cardinals have a ton of talent, but it doesn't really fit together as well as it could to optimize the talent. They would definitely get the greatest benefit from the DH of any NL Central club, but that's not reality right now.
  14. KeithStone53151
    Dude must have gotten an earful from his wife and/or agent. Maybe they sat him in front of hours of Peyton Manning/Tom Brady interview responses as training for how to act when you get paid $300 million to play a game. You have nothing to gain from making Johnny Hustle comments in public.
  15. KeithStone53151
    2 years $21 million. This is so much less than I expected for him, but I think I was much more bullish on him than most.
  16. KeithStone53151
  17. KeithStone53151
    I appreciate how open Tomlin is to change. Not everyone is open enough to reinvent themselves as a pitcher to this magnitude...at age 34.
  18. KeithStone53151
    Based on mlbpipeline's notes, does anyone else get the sense that Grisham could be alot better if he received better instruction? Why in the world are they letting him set up that way? I feel like Grisham is going to get poached at some point by the Cardinals or Dodgers and quickly be "fixed" and become the 300 MLB hitter that he was expected to be on draft day.
  19. KeithStone53151
    Add another $30-40 million in costs for this contract.
  20. KeithStone53151
    This one seems weird to me. I know he was mostly hurt last year and is 35, but man I would have loved to bring him in on a minor league deal. I know I've spoken at lenghts about not wanting an old retread taking starts from our young arms, but Santana has actually been very good in his early-mid 30s and could be very productive for us. He'd definitely be worth a look on a minor league deal.
  21. KeithStone53151
    I don't know the older Brewers as well, but I'm a bit surprised that Yelich is in so few outfields. Being the MVP isn't good enough? Burnitz and Jenkins were very good and for longer than Yelich at the moment...but neither ever had a season like Yelich's 2018. Burnitz made one all-star game and his highest was 19th in MVP voting. Jenkins also made only one all-star game and was never ranked in MVP voting. I also don't know why Cain isn't in more outfields. I can understand the argument for Thomas a bit better, but I still think Cain is the better player.
  22. KeithStone53151
    Burnes threw 145 in 2017 and Woodruff threw 158 in 2016. Also both guys are a bit bigger and a bit older than Peralta, so I would understand them being a bit more likely to be protective of his arm. All that said, I would think all of these guys would have a roughly similar innings "goal" in the 180-190 range. I don't think the Brewers really want any of them throwing 200+ innings yet, but I don't really see that being an issue. Even if all end up starting in either MLB or AAA, in September(assuming contention) it's very likely we shift to a similar strategy that we employed last September/October. These guys would probably be pitching 2-4 innings stints and it would be much easier to limit their innings for the stretch run.
  23. KeithStone53151
    With my 20 pack, I was given a free subscription to mlb tv. I spent some time rewatching condensed versions of the playoffs games. Some fantastic moments, with of course the unfortunate ending. One of the most fun takeaways that I didn't notice until rewatching, was that Brewers/Cubs playin game at Wrigley. Rizzo came out for a curtain call on his game tying HR in the 5th inning...a game that the Cubs lost. It was so much fun rewatching that happen, knowing that they lost.
  24. KeithStone53151
    I would love for these numbers to be correct, I just feel like there's some chance that Burnes doesn't open in the rotation...and some chance that Peralta forces his way in. Maybe I'd feel better if you went 90% Burnes and 10% Peralta. Overall I like it though, I hope it shakes out this way. I want to see Woodruff start so we can see him hit another dinger.
  25. KeithStone53151
    How is the NL MVP not in the top 10? I could pick this list apart if I cared enough. As much as Vlad will probably be easily within the top 50 of such a list next year, I agree it's weird to include him at this point.
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