KeithStone53151

This is a greater possibility in a couple years when Woodruff/Burnes are off the roster, but that will also probably be during a rebuild where it's not the best use of $. To sum up your post, it sounds like you're more frustrated with the execution of the philosophy than the philosophy itself. That is certainly fair. Winker is in the top 18 in PA at DH this season. With a wRC+ of 64, that is 24 lower than the next lowest which is Miguel Cabrera at 88. Guys like McCutchen, Pederson, Blackmon, Vogelbach, Bell, Ozuna, Cabrera are all getting 180+ PA in the DH spot and all are outperforming Winker by a fairly wide margin. Mind you none of these guys are jumping off the page, only Pederson has an OPS over 800 and he's strict platooned. So at the end of the day, the philosophy seems fine and widely used across the league. You can either chalk it up to the Brewers chose poorly, or we chose fine and simply got exceptionally unlucky to pick Winker over the similar options available.

The Brewers philosophy has been to rotate a few different bat first players into the DH role. Saying we do anything else is incorrect. Last year, we had a bit of an outfield log jam so Renfroe and McCutchen got a lot of DH at bats. We went into this year with Voit/Tellez/Winker figuring 3 players to start in 2 spots most of the time with Winker getting occasional outfield reps. The goal is to platoon effectively and maximize production on low cost players...which is unfortunately something the Brewers need to do due to budgetary constraints. This is also something most teams do. If you look around a bit, most teams don't have a designated player at DH. In 2023, 4 players have more than 300 PA as the DH. Ohtani, Meneses, JD Martinez, Byron Buxton. 8 other teams have a player getting at least 200 PA at DH. That means 26 teams are getting at least 100 PA and 18 teams are getting at least 200 PA this season so far from someone other than a designated DH. As I scrolled teams, approx 2/3 of teams have at least 5 guys getting 20 PA this season at DH. Point being, what the Brewers are doing isn't unusual...it would be unusual if we were the team paying JD Martinez $10M to DH for us full time.

If you had to rank the Brewers compared to other teams in developing pitching, top 5 without question. You could easily argue higher, but it's not necessary for this exercise. If you do the same ranking developing hitting, bottom 5 without question. It's too early to tell if we're getting better, or if high picks/high dollar intl FA like Mitchell/Black/Chourio/Quero are succeeding due to Brewers development or despite Brewers development. It's tough to look at Atlanta and see Arcia hit his way to the all-star game after we couldn't unlock him at all. My point, the Brewers are clearly much better at identifying and developing pitching and rightfully so have a lot of confidence in it. They probably can very quickly judge based on stuff/command/success/etc and fly the best guys through the system. They don't have the same success/confidence with hitters so move them more slowly. That's my guess anyway.

I think you made a great point but by accident to a degree. Maybe part of keeping Black in AA is so his numbers stayed up for a potential trade target. Imagine if we sent him to AAA a month ago and he posted a 600 OPS for the month? I'm honestly just not that concerned about replacing Winker. I don't see a scenario that he we don't bring in at least another option for DH. If we add say Tommy Pham and CJ Cron for example, we didn't specifically address DH but now the guys playing RF and 1B would become bench/DH options. Also when Tellez comes back, he could roll into the DH over winker if he still isn't getting it done. Winker has about 2 weeks left of everyday playing time that he either needs to hit, or he's going to become a bench option or possibly a DFA option. I appreciate the amount of leash he was given, but at this point it's been half a season and it doesn't seem to be happening.

I struggle with reasons like this for not giving a call to AAA. Black is a higher priority by far than any of these guys except Urias. We can punt one of these guys or move to AA if they think Black is best suited for AAA. What's next, Chourio beats down AA next year but shouldn't get called up to AAA only because we have too many versions of Tyler Naquin on the roster?

The scenarios that involve Misiorowski coming up in late August would involve probably 4 or 5 relievers/starters either getting hurt or completely losing it and getting creamed...in between the trade deadline and August 31. That scenario would also include Misiorowski being healthy/effective/improving over the next 2 months. It's tough to imagine all those things lining up. Also worth noting, Misiorowski is probably going to have a fairly low innings limit and having a young guy potentially pitching into late October and starting ramp up again in early March is not great for a young electric arm.

The Brewers situation this year is entirely different to prior years when we've targeted relievers. In the next few weeks, we'll be wanting to add 2-3 mlb arms and not have 2-3 guys that deserve to be sent down. Ashby, Lauer, Strezlecki, etc could come back once healthy or once they re-figure it out later in August as well. We're in a much different spot than last year, where sometimes we had trouble getting the ball to Williams/Hader...and also specifically considering we traded Hader for value. It's certainly possible we add one arm, but I doubt it and think it's more likely we utilize all outgoing resources to improve run production. Canha could effectively be a rental if nobody wants him for $11.5M. It's very possible that's the case as he enters his age 35 season. Also the season is more than half over, any acquiring team would owe closer to 1/3 of his salary if traded at the deadline. You're completely missing the point on Hernandez in that you're mischaracterizing the Brewers hitters. Hernandez has had a successful career with a lowish OBP and near 30% k rate. That profile works when you can hit for average and power. The Brewers don't have a "litany" of players that fit that profile. Of the guys you mentioned, Tapia/Perkins is lazy and you know it. They are below replacement level players due to injuries and will be replaced before the deadline. Turang is not a low OBP high k hitters, he hasn't been in the minors and once established won't have that type of profile. Tellez and Adames both have higher career OBP and lower career k rate than Hernandez. Wiemer could have a fairly similar profile to Hernandez with the primary difference being a GG defender while Hernandez is meh on defense. Bottom line, we don't have a "litany" of hitters that profile similar to Hernandez. We have a few guys with lower OBP's due to underperforming or being below replacement level players is a much more accurate characterization. Jimenez, so you pick one stat(which as a stand alone stat doesn't say much) to justify him as this super valuable commodity. I'll add another, because I'm a helper. Jimenez has 251 rbi in 378 games. That would be 108 over a full season. What a player! You completely and conveniently ignore the fact that his controlled seasons are all going to be expensive. The option aspect has value, but if he hits to career norms and you exercise the options you're paying a DH $50M over 3 years to post a low 800s OPS. That's maybe market value? Maybe? What's a 1.5 WAR DH worth anyway? I bet the Brewers could entice the White Sox for far less than you think, if we were inclined.

You've taken a very pessimistic to the Brewers perspective view on every item you've mentioned here. You might try to say you're attempting to take an unbiased viewpoint, but it seems very skewed intentionally away from us. Canha, he's 34, he's on an $11.5M deal this year and has the noted option for next year. As primarily a below average defensively corner outfielder, he's cracked 800 OPS once in his career, 5 years ago. I'm not so sure there's going to be a line of people wanting to pay him $11.5M next year. I don't really want the Brewers to get him because I'd prefer we aim higher, the argument that a deal can't happen because he's a controllable talented player is a weird argument. Hernandez, I agreed with this until you're snarky comment about the Brewers litany of low OBP high K hitters. We don't actually have a lot of players that fit that mold, a few guys have underperformed this season and have low OBP for that reason...but we don't have many that, when things are going right, are in the 28-30% k rate with OBP under 320. Jimenez, are there really going to be teams lining up for an 822 OPS(5.6 WAR over 5 years) that's having a down year, has struggled to stay healthy his entire career, and will be quite expensive next year and even moreso if the options are exercised(16.5 and 18.5). His cost would likely not be nearly as high as you think, but for that reason he also probably doesn't move because I don't think the White Sox are inclined to sell low. How would you say low strike out numbers is a trait the Brewers look for when you previously commented on our litany of high strikeout hitters? Sounds like you contradicted yourself in your own post. I also don't really see the Brewers targeting pitchers, we have quite a few reinforcements coming and pitching has been a strength.

This could possibly be the most impactful deadline move of all time, even surpassing CC sabathia and Aroldis Chapman as the top 2 most impactful i can remember.

To a degree yes. The manager has been quite the weenie this year, and it's not fun playing on a losing team...he should know that as well as anybody through his time in Colorado. Nobody expected the Cardinals to fall apart quite like they have to this point.

What an interesting problem we'll have when Woodruff comes back. Currently Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Teheran, Rea, and Houser all starting. The obvious answer is probably moving Rea/Houser to long relief and kicking back to a 5 man rotation. There aren't any bad stretches of games in a row that a 6 man rotation is really necessary, so I see that going away quickly. They will probably try to have one of Rea/Houser available on days Miley/Teheran pitch, but you can't get away with strict piggybacks at this level. Sending our worst 2 relievers to AAA in favor of 2 effective starters shifting to relief should solve to a degree our problem created by the worst relievers in the pen, while adding length to what the bullpen can cover. Relief decisions/rest is certainly simplified when the starter goes 5 innings, Houser goes 3, Williams nails down the save.

Considering the nature of projections, and the fact that FG had them at around 2% at the end of May, I'm concerned about the trajectory and find zero comfort in 54 vs 30% that FG is noting currently.

The original deal appeared fair for both sides on paper, at least that's what I thought. But based on what we got for Ruiz...it's possible if not likely that prospect rankings pundits(and all of us) were completely wrong on the value of Ruiz. The prospect rankers I'm sure do a fine job, but they are lightyears behind the talent evaluation capabilities of mlb teams.

That generally makes sense. Back when 4 teams made the playoffs, you might have 6 to 8 teams at most in each league trying to win and the other 7 to 9 as sellers. Now 6 make the playoffs. The only guaranteed sellers so far in the NL are the nationals, cardinals, and rockies. The cardinals also probably won't sell stars as they'll retool for 2024. The padres, pirates, cubs, and mets are potential sellers...but one good week of baseball could easily change that equation. The other 8 teams will be buyers unless they have a catastrophic losing streak out of the gate. So the ratio is 8 buyers, 3 sellers, 4 maybes. I assume the ratio is similar in the AL. Definitely going to be more of a sellers market at deadlines going forward.

That certainly reduces the odds and potentially the return, but he certainly could have teams he's interested in moving to. He also seems a bit disgruntled where he's at, so he might be more open to moving to really any big market that's legit contending. The Yankees and Dodgers are actually specifically good fits for him off the top of my head.

I think the Cardinals probably trade him because I think they can get real good offers right now. Arenado is 32 and still a star, the Cardinals are bad and a rebuild would make more sense for them than trying to spend their way to wildcard contenders for a couple years. The farm system isn't quite the same as it once was. Add to that, the corner infield market is very thin. He won't come here, but think about how impactful Arenado could be on the Brewers right now. Complete game changer, whereas aside from him the best obviously available bat on the market at any position is Jeimer Candelario. The only thing the Cardinals could do that would be smarter than trading Arenado, is to not trade him AND immediately hire Molina for whatever price it would take to be the manager. If that happened, I would immediately place a bet on the Cardinals winning the division before vegas changed the odds.

One other aspect to consider, every team values prospects differently and certainly have a better feel for success than prospect guru's do...and much better than any of us. Look no further than the catcher trade over the winter. The A's must have valued Ruiz incredibly high to make that trade. Also your viewpoints on blue chip prospects is severely flawed. By the time the guys you referenced hit AA/AAA, they were literally untouchable. By that point, every team can see the makings of a superstar and wouldn't trade them for anything. I'd argue Harper/Bryant would have never been realistically traded for anything from the day they were drafted. You aren't wrong that none of our prospects are the same caliber of prospects as some of the best prospects in the history of baseball...it doesn't mean they aren't viable options in a trade for Robert. Of the three holes you poked in our prospects, the only really fair one is Frelick. Black won't necessarily need an average mlb caliber arm to make a big impact at the mlb level...and virtually all 21 year olds don't have mlb caliber command, especially 21 year olds that can hit triple digits. If Misiorowski had mlb caliber command today, I don't think we'd trade him for Robert straight up.

One fun, cheap idea if the Cardinals are willing to play ball would be to trade for O'Neill. He's really talented, and I suspect part of his issues this season relate to bad management. I remember him getting called out for not running the bases hard enough. If there's bad blood with him and the organization, there's some added motivation we'll say...for a bounce back second half.

I would say moreso I think Yadi got so much more out of the pitching staff than probably anyone else possibly could...which also helped hide the defensive woes a bit.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the specific teams we beat or lose to. Bottom line is we won 5 or 7. The Mets payroll is at least double ours and the roster is loaded with quality players. Slumps can end at a moments notice. The best part of this week was 24 runs against the pirates in 3 games. Hitting is the greater concern. The pitching has been better than the hitting, and we have significant injury reinforcements coming on the pitching side with no hitters on the horizon really in the minors or injuries. Maybe frelick, maybe Hiura. Both would specifically fill a need and it would be great if they put up big july numbers in AAA to provide an option.

I had to check, Yelich really is grading as above average defender this year. But, that's an improvement at age 31 over three consecutive below average defensive seasons. I suspect that's not going to continue over the life of his contract, it may not continue as soon as next season as this could simply be a small sample size. Yelich's career trajectory is most easily explainable by being a great contact hitter, and in his peak years MLB juiced the ball leading to him hitting a lot more HR than he rightfully should have...which he parlayed into a big contract extension. I have a lot more hope that the current slash line is sustainable for a few more years, and he keeps stealing 30-40 bases for at least 2 more years. That probably puts us at 2 more years of paying 25-50% above market and 3 years of paying 60-80% above market. I know that seems doom and gloom, but coming into this year he looked like he'd be in a position to get kicked to the bench by the young crop down the stretch. So this improvement is quite huge for this contract not being a massive failure.

Agreed. An epic fail by the jets likely means Rodgers was trash, and in that case getting literally anything is better than having bad Rodgers in 2023 and the cap problem in 2024. There are far more scenarios that the Packers win this trade than the jets. The jets basically need Rodgers to be MVP Rodgers, but even in that case it would be a win/win if Jordan love is the real deal.

Even in an extreme case? Let's say the jets are 1-8 to start the season and Rodgers looks old/bad but is healthy? In that case they are also in serious risk of that pick being an ultra valuable top 5 pick. I generally tend to agree that the 4-7 jets are not punting on the season, I think it takes a very extreme scenario for them to consider benching Rodgers to save the draft pick. I'll add the GM would almost certainly be fired at the 1-8 mark if Rodgers was bad and potentially benched.

Yeah, pick 42 obviously completely changes the valuation. Overall this seems like a pretty reasonable compromise based on what the reported offers/asks were...although the Jets didn't protect themselves from a scenario where Rodgers only plays 1 year.

Ehhhh, the Pirates have a good young core. One of that young core is out for the season, but they have young talent and it was more a matter of when not if they would get good. I didn't think it would be this quick...still might not be. Changing of the guards happen in baseball much quicker than projection systems can catch them. The year the Cubs won like 100 games and went deep in the playoffs with the Baez/Rizzo/Bryant core...most projection systems had them around 80-82 wins.