KeithStone53151

This trade is a massive win for my dynasty fantasy league, I'm thrilled that Segura is moving to a fairly neutral hitting park...and will likely bat 1st or 2nd with Harper or Machado or both...and Hoskins as protection in the lineup. Counting stats for days. As far as this trade, I think it's a good for both sides. On the surface, it looks like a better deal for the Phillies. Getting the all-star caliber SS with a lot of team control. I wouldn't completely underestimate JP Crawford though, he's still only 23 and was very highly regarded coming up. He's just as likely to start hitting as Arcia, or as Andrelton Simmons was before he broke out. The Mariners also cleared future payroll space and took on a bad contract that expires after 2020. There are also likely a couple bad years on the tail end of that contract Segura signed. He's a speed first player which drives a percentage of his batting average. That speed is going to start to go soon, and his stolen bases and avg will suffer a bit when it does. Segura probably has at least 2, possibly 3 really good seasons left before the speed and avg start ticking down a bit.

I'm going to speculate that the moves by the Mets make them FAR less likely to trade Thor. Acquiring Cano/Diaz is a win now move. It wouldn't make sense to move someone the caliber of Thor unless they are absolutely terrified about his health for the coming year and going forward. If they were still entertaining offers at this point, I would walk away...it woudl signal to me that they know something about his health that nobody else does and that he's a bad target.

From a defensive standpoint on Dietrich, he's not like Shaw where his issue is range but he'll for the most part gobble up everything he can get to. I just think he's not a great defender. I've seen him botch plays he should make too often in the very limited amount of him I've seen. While being more athletic than Schwarber, he makes just as many bad reads/misplays on baseballs in the outfield. No matter where you put this guy, he's not going to be a reliable defender. The biggest plus I have on Dietrich is he comes across as a guy that puts in the work. You can look at his physique and improvements and assume that. I love hearing about guys that put in the effort, it's why I'm so high on Nelson and Nottingham. I would be surprised if you couldn't find those types of comments on Dietrich from coaches, media, teammates, etc.

We were a good match last offseason as well and that never materialized. Santana is a glove-like fit for that team. I hope it does this offseason. I personally would prefer Bauer of the 3 options they seem to be dangling as I think his acquisition cost would be the lowest.

I'm a bit blown away by the high ranking of Garcia. He must have really impressed in fall instructs as noted, because they rank him ahead of some quality upper minors players.

This seems the equivalent of saying "christian yelich is a good baseball player". I don't remember the overall state of the franchise being better than it is right now. Even in the late 00s with Braun/Fielder/Weeks/etc, we didn't have pitching or much for minor league talent in the pipeline. And once we traded for Marcum/Greinke...we had a clearly defined 2 year window, whereas I don't see a window with this current team. We are contenders for the forseeable future with plenty of identifiable talent in the minors. We probably have a 1-2 year lull with minimal contributions/callups from the minors coming. Hiura, Brown, Ray, Dubon that might be it for the next 2 years aside from role players and shuttle service bullpen arms. By that point, some of these 40-45 FV players in the low minors will likely have vaulted themselves into impact prospects...as we have a lot of talented players in the low minors getting 40-45 FV rankings currently.

Right. And a reminder that the Brewers were one of the biggest spenders last offseason...when nobody else was spending. I believe a new TV deal is coming after the 2019 season as well. I personally think $110M for an opening payroll makes sense, and could also see it inch a bit higher. I'll add that if the Brewers are doing well, I don't think payroll would be a huge factor in decision making at the deadline. Player payroll is obviously the biggest expense a team has, but all other operational costs are increasing year to year regardless of if the team is good or not. And I have to imagine MA is opening his checkbook a bit to try and keep Stearns from bolting to a big market when his contract is up. It's definitely not as simple as "that one time they got a $50M payout" or "ticket prices went up 8% this year, so payroll should go up 8%".

It's tough to see Syndergaard moving specifically because of all the quality SP options available, and his team control. Syndergaard also has the injury risk tag on him. He's a guy that could realistically improve his trade value at the deadline or next offseason, while most guys floated probably can't do that. A healthy 3.5 months of sub 3.5 ERA from Syndergaard will boost his value quite a bit. On a side, Syndergaard is the type of guy that it makes sense to include a guy like Hiura for. 3 years of Syndergaard vs 2 years of Realmuto, the value isn't even close. And if I'm trading Hiura, I don't think I would be willing to include one of those major 3 arms in the trade. Hiura, one of Brown/Ray, and one or two other lesser prospects...or Hiura and a current MLB arm like Anderson or Davies. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I think we can still create a valuable enough package without Hiura/Burnes, but I imagine the Mets will insist or stand pat.

I think marlins fans are going to be in for a rude awakening when realmuto gets dealt. And then they'll all blame Jeter when in reality, they simply misjudged the realmuto market significantly

I've been putzing through marlins fan forums a bit. The general consensus is that Realmuto should get any prospect in baseball not named Vlad Jr as a starting point in any offer. The guys most mentioned are Whitley and/or Tucker coming over from Houston with even more significant pieces in return. A deal that Rosenthal threw out there was Tucker and James for Realmuto, is viewed pretty well on the Marlins boards. Most on this board think the Realmuto return will be far, far below that including myself. It's interesting to see what the other side thinks.

This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams. Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at. A monster bounce back first half is the only way he might get a similar return at the deadline to what he probably can get now. A reminder any trade now, the team can make a QO to MB. Traded at the deadline eliminates the QO, so there would be no comp pick. You need a perfect storm to happen to get a Cubs style overpay at the deadline, it's much smarter for the Giants to trade now than hope for the perfect storm in July.

This 1st article is a bit lazy. It quotes Jon Harper from an article from June. All 3 guys for Syndergaard have gone up dramatically in value. While Syndergaard has gone down a bit. There's certainly a lot of smoke regarding us targeting a high end rotation arm.

CC would die before allowing Perez to get fewer than 300 ABs +1. The only way that doesn't happen is if Sogard has a mediocre or better ST and makes the club.

I'll agree for MB is a bit of a stretch, I think it's a minority of people willing to include Peralta in that deal. It's usually higher caliber players that he's being mentioned in trade scenarios. I'll also add that I hope you're right about how good Peralta will be. I think all of us do.

Right. And I'll add that anybody that considers Woodruff a slightly better prospect than Peralta isn't taking a shot at Peralta. Hard not to get excited about the guy after what we saw from him the last 2 months of the season. I think all 3 of these guys are far and away better than any pitching prospects we've had come up since Yovani Gallardo, and they may in fact be better than Gallardo. Most discussion of trading these guys has been in conversations for Realmuto, Syndergaard, Kluber, etc. It's not like we are actively trying to dump any of these guys, and it's all speculation anyways. For all we know, Stearns is making those guys virtually off limits.

You can probably look online and find the breakeven point on SS, if it isn't online then any financial advisor can certainly help. I talked to my parents about this recently and they are both planning to take it right away at 62 despite not really needing to. I think they said the break even would be 76 but don't quote me on that. There certainly isn't a singular correct answer, every situation is different.

Im ok with the guarantee if that's all it is. Prudent move if that's the case

True Blue, how many starters at the mlb level succeed with multiple versions of a fastball and a slow curve? The changeup is still a question you haven't addressed. I get he's still young, but he's doesn't project to add much if any velocity. He's small and already has a lot of effort in his delivery... which you haven't addressed as a wart that impacts repeatability of mechanics and therefore command. I get his low 90s plays up to mid 90s for a variety of reasons and that's solid, but not really enough if that and the curve is all else you have. Basically he'll be the next kluber or he darn well better develop that change.

How many young arms like Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta do you see with the stuff they show and making they impact they made at the MLB level? These guys don't grow on trees, would you rather pay those guys league min or pay Samardja 18 million a year the next 3 years. All 3 of those guys will probably be better than Samardja almost immediately and have a ton of upside. And Hiura is rated as one of the best pure hitters in the minors right behind Vlad, and he's also showing a ton of power. If he was a Yankee or Cub, he'd probably be a top 5 prospect in baseball. Mind you, those guys are clearly in a tier far above guys like Ray, Brown, Turang, etc. It's not as simply as "well this player is good, therefore we have to give up our best prospect". It's not that simple when our best young players are better players than the guy we are getting. With more and cheaper control. Did I miss discussion about Samardzija? I thought everyone has been talking about Baumgartner who is a ton better than Samardzija. And only costs 12 million or something this year I'm using Samardja as an example. You can insert any over the hill mid rotation starter. My point is that these 3 are highly valuable and young impact SP don't grow on trees. Most teams are going to fill out their rotations with guys like Samardja or Leake or Alex Wood or insert any over the hill mid-back end SP that you hope can hang on for one more year. I can't remember the last time before 2015 that we had even 1 pitching prospect as good as any of these 3. Nelson was an ok prospect that improved significantly at the MLB level. Thornburg was an ok prospect that peaked as a setup caliber RP. Wily Peralta, LOL. For a couple years we all hoped Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley would be good. There was a year or two that everyone complained about Tyler Cravy not finally getting a chance at an MLB role. None of these guys above were even close to the prospect that these big 3 prospects are.

I'd tend to agree mostly here. Stokes makes the most sense playing for a 2nd division team. I wouldn't feel good about him getting extended playing time here. I think you are underselling Brown a bit. He's definitely a big step behind the other 3, but that's primarily due to where he's pitching. He took a bit more time to develop, but he's a very very good prospect and I could see a Burnes type role for him in 2019 at the MLB level. I'll add that I strongly hope that Braden Webb doesn't get included in a trade. I think he's better than most and I don't think we'd get proper value for him in a trade.

How many young arms like Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta do you see with the stuff they show and making they impact they made at the MLB level? These guys don't grow on trees, would you rather pay those guys league min or pay Samardja 18 million a year the next 3 years. All 3 of those guys will probably be better than Samardja almost immediately and have a ton of upside. And Hiura is rated as one of the best pure hitters in the minors right behind Vlad, and he's also showing a ton of power. If he was a Yankee or Cub, he'd probably be a top 5 prospect in baseball. Mind you, those guys are clearly in a tier far above guys like Ray, Brown, Turang, etc. It's not as simply as "well this player is good, therefore we have to give up our best prospect". It's not that simple when our best young players are better players than the guy we are getting. With more and cheaper control.

They recently just did this with 94.5, had been country up until a few weeks ago and switched to talk radio. 92.1 promptly filled the void by switching to country. I imagine another station will jump into the top 40 mix. Your point on sports talk radio is a good one. I personally have no interest in it, and I'm a pretty big sports fan especially Brewers. I can't imagine where they are getting their ratings. Maybe music licensing is getting so expensive that paying a guy to babble about sports is less expensive and overall more profitable despite less revenue. I'm completely guessing on that, I really have no idea. I'm sure there's a good reason this is happening though.

I don't think it's best to project value on a straight line basis when looking at WAR. A 4 WAR player should not cost only twice as much as a 2 WAR player. There's more of a curve there, or at least there should be if the analysis is any good. There are far more than double the amount of 2 WAR projected players than 4 WAR.

Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout. you don't think being undersized and only having a low 90s FB would qualify as warts or potential issues? I'll add that Peralta doesn't really throw his changeup at the mlb level. That pitch probably comes around in time, but who knows how much time and how good the offering will be. I understand his fastball has a lot of variability and is probably 2 pitches...but the list of quality mlb starters that throw different variations of fastball and a curve is extremely short. Kluber is the only one I can think of, maybe Arrieta in his first 2 seasons in Chicago as well. Size, velocity, control, effort in delivery, and lack of changeup are his warts. With all that, I still like Peralta quite a bit and I've said I think his ceiling is probably beyond what Woodruff could be. I just think overall their values are probably close because Woodruff is better right now and probably will be for 1-2 years minimum...and he could permanently be better if Peralta doesn't fully develop as we hope.

Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Syndergaard, Paxton, Bumgarner...list of high end SP on the block that we know of. Let me know if I'm missing anyone.