KeithStone53151

No. No. A thousand times no. http://disciplesofuecker.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/YB.gif Arcia probably makes this play without even having to dive.

I think their estimates are low on Walker and possibly Swarzak as well. The only thing going against Swarzak is he only had the 1 good year. It might be tough to get a team to buy in on that. Walker I think will get more in the 3/40 range. Arrieta's contract is probably about right, but we damn well better not be signing him. That's one of very few moves Stearns could make that would get me to turn on him.

I think some of you are looking at this offseason far more complex than is necessary. The core of this team came within a game of making the playoffs. Moderate upgrades and improvement in our young guys should vault us to being a serious contender. We do only have the 2 established guys and then Woodruff/Hader likely filling 2 rotation spots to open the season. We will likely need to sign someone in free agency(or trade for someone) and have some depth options until Nelson/Burnes are ready to go. We will likely need to sign a couple guys in the bullpen. We will likely make a "spare parts" trade and deal Broxton. The ideas of trading Perez, trading Santana, trading Woodruff, trading Brinson...are very very unlikely. It's interesting to speculate, but Stearns doesn't need to get overly creative to put a contender on the field in 2018.

Me too. I think he's a dark horse candidate for an MLB bullpen spot. I wonder, though, if they'd assign him to AAA and stretch him out as a starter? The team doesn't have many pitchers in the system with his type of stuff/make-up. If he does manage to work out and be a contributor, that Gomez/Fiers for Hader/Santana/Phillips/Houser trade goes from great to magical. This trade is on the verge of being magical whether Houser does anything or not. Santana has been incredibly productive and projects to continue. Phillips will likely open with the MLB club. Hader will either get a chance to fulfill his ace ceiling or get relegated to Andrew Miller duty, hard to say which route we'll go. That alone makes it a crazy good trade. If Houser ends up helping to fill the 8th spot/shuttle service role between AAA and MLB, I'll be happy. That will give him a chance to get his feet wet against MLB hitters and see how he does. I'd put his ceiling closer to Jacob Barnes than Knebel though.

Agreed, much appreciated. This might be a good thread for a mod to pin to the top for easy access.

Drake might be kept as a low cost insurance policy, considering he's a min salary guy, and then cut in spring training assuming we don't have like 4 bullpen injuries. I have no idea his option situation, but I wouldn't hate keeping him in the system in AAA. He shouldn't be pitching much if at all at the MLB level...and never any meaningful innings.

This makes sense, I think it's more likely we roll with Villar than sign someone like Walker. But if we did make a signing, someone would have to go. With a projected young rotation, we'll need 8 in the bullpen more often than not.

You can't simply look at OBP, OPS, and WAR and determine the value of a player. It isn't nearly that simply. Having Perez allowed us to roll an 8 man bullpen and a 1b only as one of 4 bench bats that posted an 850ish OPS(I'm too lazy to look up the exact number). That alone has a ton of value, even if he's an awful hitter. Perez also rolls with a decent AVG despite the low OBP and has significant pop in his bat. The OBP is an obvious flaw in his game, but no player is perfect and every player can improve in some aspect of their game. I think you would be extremely surprised at the type of return Perez would get if we shopped him, that said I'm not interested in extending him. Dubon/Orf/sogard are available to fill that super utility role. Orf and Sogard wouldn't be able to play CF, but we'll have 2 of Brinson/Phillips/Broxton on the roster to fill that spot and still maintain a good 4 man bench with Aguilar. Perez is a decent player and fills a need, but we shouldn't get in the habit of extending decent players. That's Melvin-type GMing.

I like the target, I'm not so sure on the cost. With how scarce pitching is as you say, other teams would surely be in on Ryu if made available.

I'd tend to agree for the most part. It would be very easy to say we should have sold high on Guerra after 2016, but every other team saw a 31 year old SP that is first finding success now, he starts, and he throws a split finger pitch. Hard to say what kind of offers we were getting for him, if any. I mentioned in another thread that the 1-2 year of remaining control mark is probably the sweet spot in terms of maximizing value in a trade. As far as extensions go, I think we are highly likely to be done with extensions for this season. It's possible Santana or Shaw get offered an extension, but I don't expect that to happen. The only deals Stearns has handed out aside from 1 year deals have been very team friendly. Even the offer to Villar at the time was very team friendly. I don't think either Shaw or Santana would take a very team friendly deal, and I honestly don't think those types of talks would happen anyway.

If we ate most of the salary, they are not getting anything special. Probably not even a Top 25 guy. Just an organizational type player. This depends so much on how the 2b market shakes out. I think their ask will start with 2 fringe top 100 guys. Depending how desperate they are to trade him to shed the salary and how many teams need/want him, he could go as high as that or be a pure salary dump. Look no further than the Tigers trading Verlander to Houston. Detroit got a big haul, yet Verlander is paid significantly more than fair value contract. I think it takes 2 fringe top 100 guys to get him after the year he had. That said, I have no interest in paying that price. I'd consider trading for him as more of a salary dump trade, but it's highly likely another team values him more and prospects less and overbids us...which is fine.

Every team needs some degree of filler. Nobody has 25 guys for every affiliate with a potential major league future. Tim is a funny guy, and as noted above probably has a future with the organization beyond his playing days. I wouldn't be surprised if Burgos hangs around in a similar fashion and ends up a pitching coach. He sure maximized results based on his abilities.

If Stearns/Attanasio go into the season with Jungmann and Suter as known commodities in the 5 man rotation with a $70 million payroll, we can just pack this thing up and rebuild again. I guess you're adding Walker so we'll say $80-85 million. Suter has probably earned some confidence but I'm not there yet with him. If an injury occurs, it could get real nasty with rotation depth. You have a small bullpen with Suter who only is a 5 inning guy and I would assume Jungmann should only go 4-5 innings most games if he's even an MLB pitcher (I don't think he is). Woodruff might also be a concern to go deep into games. In no universe is Jungmann or Suter going to open the season in the starting rotation with Hader in the pen, barring them showing up to camp with a drastic uptick in velocity/stuff. I know many of you don't like Hader in the rotation...that's fine. But Hader won't be stuck in the bullpen over the likes of Jungmann or Suter...guys with number 5 upside and downside of having stuff that would get shelled up in Appleton. Hader is getting that 5th spot unless we add significantly from outside the organization, and I honestly find that more likely than not.

Gilbert is kinda in the Demi-type prospect status for me. He has the tools, but has a ton of developmental time to go and really needs things to start clicking. The Brewers should have someone like Jimmy Nelson mentor this kid, someone with an incredibly work ethic that can hopefully rub off on him a bit. Everything I've read says low-energy and half-assing everything, unless you are an absolute premium talent/athlete...that simply won't work in this game at this level.

While I generally disagree with how you calculate your surplus value, we came to the same general price tag. I think Miami would accept 2 prospects in the 12-20 range in our system. The brewers have 14-15 guys that would fit into the top 10 in almost any system aside from ours. Diplan and Gatewood might get it done. If they don't want to buy low on someone like Diplan, maybe they accept Supak instead. The market for 2b should be much more of a buyers market with the guys available. Gordon isn't THAT much better than Walker, and there are other solid if unspectacular options available. I also don't think there are a ton of teams in need of 2b. How that market plays out will be interesting. The villar for gordon trade makes no sense whatsoever. Trading Stanton, especially with their pitching situation, likely means long rebuild. It's possible the return on stanton ends up being similar to the Sale return and they vault back to contention in a year or 2, but I don't think Dombrowski has the prospects to make that kind of splash again and no other GM is as foolish as him. Best case scenario for them in getting Villar is either he sucks for cheap and helps them get a good draft pick, or he bounces back and is a somewhat valuable trade chip while lowering their draft pick. And I don't think anyone would pay 2016 offseason price for Villar regardless of what he does. Less team control, and nobody is going to pay a premium for such an up and down player. They are better off going for a couple good prospects for Gordon now, at least that's what I would do.

Right team and position, different player - Tyler White. White's career minor league line is .301/.397/.500, and this past season he played over 100 innings at every position in the infield with 3B being the most often. Career minor league K rate of 15% and BB rate of 12%. wRC+ of 130 at AAA this past season. Kemp's career minor league line is .310/.388/.419. Tyler White seems like a more versatile version of Nathan Orf. I'd really like to see that guy get a crack as a September callup. It seems that if you don't have big time power or speed, it's easy to be overlooked in the minor leagues.

Those are some mighty odd prospects to group in with Burnes in trying to predict the future Brewer rotation. But seriously, I have a hard enough time trying to imagine who the Brewers will be looking to trade in 1 year much less 3. Generally speaking, it seems teams aren't valuing rentals even remotely as much as that 1 year and 2 month of control...for obvious reasons...and excluding the absolute premier players at a position. For example, cubs and chapman. Much more common is the piddling return the dbacks gave up for martinez. I would think as a general rule, Stearns should and will be looking trade guys somewhere between 1 and 2 years of team control left...giving him 3 real chances to trade. Teams generally won't pay an amount assuming more than 2 years of current production levels either...so that's really the sweet spot for maximizing return. And I'll add to Adam's comment about your odd choices of SP to group with Burnes. That would be like commenting how good our future outfield will be with Philips, Brinson, Johnny Davis and Brandon Diaz.

My biggest concern with Anderson is him getting comfortable because he got the financial security and not putting in the work to return to 2017 form. He reportedly busted his butt this offseason and it showed in his velocity uptick...which jumped about 1.5 mph. I think the team options with low buyouts help motivate him to keep at it with the work ethic, but I still have concern. If that velocity fades, he's back to a low-mid 4s era guy versus a low-mid 3s guy.

Why can't Stokes be a Khris Davis with a little less power but faster and better defensively (and a better walk rate and lower K rate)? He was only 21 this past season. 40-HR seasons are not likely, but in 2014 Davis put up a 2.1 bWAR season with 22 HRs and a .756 OPS. Davis only once hit 20 HRs in a season in the minors, 22 in low A at Wisconsin at the age of 22 (*probably would have hit 20 if not injured in 2012, but he was also 24 that season). Stokes hit 20 at one and two levels higher and at a year younger. You have to look past the slightly above average numbers and look at his raw tools. Guys with below average tools making it at the mlb level are the exception not the rule. As far as the khris davis comp, stokes doesn't hit like davis did in the minors or have nearly the power potential. The two frankly aren't comparable.

Sorry, this has nothing to do with Troy Stokes. Why does a Troy Stokes thread have to turn into a Stearns bashing thread? Can't we save that for the 'What do with this of David Stearns at this point' thread? It's like the in-game-threads, where every third post was twisted to attack or criticize (INSERT PLAYER/COACH/MANAGER/OWNER NAME). I'm not sure why any thread would turn into the Stearns bashing thread. Not much to bash. Back to Stokes, he isn't highly rated because his skill set is highly unlikely to play up as well as it is currently. No different than some of the best college football players not translating to the NFL. He's going to have to do like Jason Rogers/Brent Suter and force our hand with his play...whether it be trading him to a team that believes in him or finding playing time due to injury or poor performance.

Epstein is a nob. What is he going to round out his rotation with? Hopes and dreams? I suspect he'll try to utilize MLB talent to acquire a SP and sign a veteran bounceback candidate for the 5th spot. I also suspect he's going to run into a road block when he grossly overvalues guys like baez/Schwarber/happ and doesn't get far in discussions.

Remember, these are early contract values, though. I imagine Harper starting at $30 and ending at $40/year. Maybe I'm undershooting that a bit, but they could backload their two big deals to make it work during the Heyward years. Yeah, and it's possible that somebody goes insanely high for Harper like maybe the Phillies. I think Arrieta goes 6/$175 and starts in the high 20s and ends in the mid 30s per year. You're probably right, though on Harper and also it's possible that the Cubs should use all of that money to overpay bullpen help. Might have been a bit off on Quintana/Rizzo, but that's pretty negligible in the projection. I'll again note that Harper isn't going to take a backloaded deal. He's going to want cash up front with opt outs. With the type of money he's going to command, he will surely have full authority to basically write out the contract however he chooses. I also don't think Lynn or Arrieta get the type of money you are referencing. The Zimmerman contract is awful. Awful contracts shouldn't be used as comps. Lynn will likely shoot for inflated Matt Garza money, 4/64 type of deal. Arrieta probably gets 4/80, maybe 4/90. I highly doubt anyone goes 5 years for a guy that will be 32 before opening day.

I think it'll be close as to whether they can add two massive contract guys and hang around the tax threshold. I could see them going over for one or two years if it means they can bring in Bryant's buddy Bryce Harper. Arrieta, Heyward, Lester, Harper about $100 million in 2020. Bryant is probably another $20 in arbitration, Quintana is $10, Rizzo is $15, Hendricks is $15. Baez, Russell, Edwards, Schwarber will probably all be in the $5-7 million range. Hand-wavy, but that's probably about $185 million for 12 players. That means they'd have about $20-25 million for the other 12-13 players if they wanted to stay under the threshold in 2020. They could do it. 2019 is similar to the example above. They'll still have Zobrist and Lester makes more (adds up to $20 million extra) but they probably save that in earlier arbitration rates for Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, etc. A lot can and will change. They may shuffle things around a bit, of course. I think if they're real creative they can probably sign 2 more massive contracts and maybe even squeeze in a high priced reliever and make things work. Of course, that example above basically shows you that they'll have no bullpen at that point. They'll probably have to shuffle some things around. Or maybe they'll just pay the tax for a year or two as first time offenders. As you pointed out, they'll have next to no bullpen, are short 2 starters, and the other 3 starters will likely be back of the rotation starters at best at this point. Your exercise vey clearly illustrates how difficult a situation they will be in very very soon, and that's with you underestimating the cost on Harper.

I'd be fine with this trade. He's on a contract year, you know how guys can miraculously have career years on a contract year. It's a 1 year commitment, and he's been very good about eating innings the last 3 years...averaging over 6 ip per start and throwing 200+ innings. The Giants might also be willing to add a mid-level prospect in exchange for dumping the entire salary. I know they really want to get under the luxury tax and don't look like they are going to do that without trading a big salary or two. I'm not sure what I was looking at. 3 years 60 million. In that case I'm much less interested. I don't think I'm willing to gamble on him being good for 3 years at that price.

mid-season article https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzijas-oddly-dominant-season/ Not sure how he would fare away from the NL West ballparks. So I would want the Giants paying a good chunk of his last year on his $59.4M / 3 years left on his contract. He does get hit nowadays, but led the league in innings pitched last year and has pitched at least 200 innings the last five years. I wonder if he shouldn't throw more crap to players and give up a few more walks, but also less hits to them. He had 32 starts and 32 walks last year. I'd be fine with this trade. He's on a contract year, you know how guys can miraculously have career years on a contract year. It's a 1 year commitment, and he's been very good about eating innings the last 3 years...averaging over 6 ip per start and throwing 200+ innings. The Giants might also be willing to add a mid-level prospect in exchange for dumping the entire salary. I know they really want to get under the luxury tax and don't look like they are going to do that without trading a big salary or two.