BruisedCrew

I never questioned the projection models showing the Brewers as division favorites, but I did question some of the percentages, specifically those that show the Brewers with a 70-75% probability of winning the division. That’s what prompted my comment that I think that a bet on the Cardinals winning the division at 3-1 would be a better bet than one on the Brewers at 1-3. A subsequent post showing current Vegas odds backs me up on that. Because of yesterday’s exchange I looked more closely at the FanGraphs projections for the rest of the season, and they also support my points. They show the Cardinals going 56-50 the rest of the way to finish 80-82 with the Brewers finishing 82-80. So, they consider the Brewers a very slight favorite. I don’t think they would agree with your opinion that the Cardinals would need to win something like 17 in a row to come out on top. The FG projections also show the Cardinals allowing 4.54 runs per game the rest of the way to the Brewers 4.56 RAPG. The individual projections for the Cardinals SP show virtually all of them having ERA’s a half a point or more lower for the rest of the season. They seem to agree with my general expectation, which is admittedly not founded on advanced metrics, that the Cardinals pitching will be better the rest of the way than it was for the first month or so. I don’t really care how much of this is attributable to the starting rotation, but the assumption of some Brewers fans that the Brewers pitching is going to be significantly better than the Cardinals is not shared by FanGaraphs. The FG projections also expect the Cardinals to continue to score more runs than the Brewers (4.80 RPG to 4.54). My read on this is that Fan Graphs is doing a better job (or at least one that seems more accurate to me) than the ones that show the Brewers with a significantly higher probability of winning the division. You can say all you want that my opinions are “just Pro Cardinal spin”, but I think there is factual support for them.

When I was growing up there used to be “big holiday doubleheaders” on days like Memorial Day, July 4, and Labor Day. But, over the years I think teams have found that attendance lags on these holidays and there is no compelling reason to play if a lot of fans prefer other holiday activities.

I don’t see my comments criticizing the Brewers and comparing them to the Cardinals as “defending” the Cardinals or “attacking “ the Brewers. I see them as a counterbalance to some of the extreme homerism that appears on this board. I don’t “swiftly dismiss” some of these advanced stats, but I do question how predictive they are of what’s going to happen in the last 4 months of the season. Several of the Cardinals SP are performing significantly worse than they have in their careers and how they performed as recently as last season. I don’t assume that that will continue and that the only way for the Cardinals to improve their pitching is through acquisitions. Maybe my view of the Cardinals pitchers is skewed by how I see them shut down the Brewers. The focus on the Cardinals SP problems doesn’t address the question of whether whatever advantage the Brewers have in that department might be more than offset over the course of the season by the Cardinals clearly superior offense.

Didn’t take you long to pull out the LOL. You really can’t resist that, can you? The easier schedule point has not been made factually. Series against teams over .500 in one month is hardly a conclusive argument. I think that for the season to date the teams’ schedules have been equal enough to not be significant. Who has had more injuries by number or by days spent on the IL isn’t all that meaningful by itself either, especially when the discussion is about future projections. It may be relevant for making excuses, but unless there are high quality players who can be expected to return and perform at a high level, they are irrelevant. Which brings me back to my original point of how well projection sites can anticipate the impact of returning players. When you or anyone else tries to conclude that I am a Cardinals fan, they lose a lot of credibility with me. It means you are cherry picking certain comments and ignoring hundreds of others. As a point of fact, I have been a Brewers fan for twice as long as you have been alive, and I take that into account when I evaluate your comments.

I’m really not buying the “much tougher schedule” argument when 2 of the Brewers series were against the Giants who are only over .500 because of winning 5 of 7 against the Brewers. The Cardinals had several difficult series in April too, including Atlanta, the Dodgers (with whom they are now finished for the year,) and Blue Jays. I also factor in that the Cardinals started May 0-5 to finish a stretch of losing something like 11 of 12 to fall to 10-24 and 10 games out of first place. Since then they have gone 14-8 and have carved that deficit to 5.5 games. If the Cardinals can pick up 3.5 games over the Brewers in about 3 weeks, I don’t think they need to win 17 in a row, or anything close to that, to make up 5.5 games over 4 months. I don’t find the injuries and underperformance argument very persuasive either. I guess I would agree that if all of the injured Brewers return, nobody else is injured, and all of the players who have underperformed improve their performance, while none of the players who have performed well slide back, the Brewers will be the favorites to win the division. We might disagree about the likelihood of all of those things falling into place But, I also recognize that a lot of other teams (including the Cardinals) have had injuries and underperforming players too. I can see that some Brewers homers see refusing to declare the Cardinals dead means that I think that they are unbeatable, or shoo-ins to win the division, or (the most laughable) a closet Cardinal fan. I just think past experience, including the last two seasons, tells me that harping on the Cardinals flaws is like whistling past the graveyard.

Then why have the Brewers gone 10-15 in May? There is obviously a lot more to winning games than some of these advanced stats that are thrown around. There are so many of them that it can’t be hard to find some that make the case for one team over another.

I’d rather be known for expressing my opinions than what some others on this board are known for.

The Cardinals starting pitching has undeniably been terrible, and yet as a team they are only allowing about .25 runs more than the Brewers while scoring almost a run per game more. Is it more likely that the Cardinals SP will improve, or that the Brewers offense, which has barely managed 3 runs per game over the last month, will suddenly start producing at something close to the league average? Unless something changes significantly, the NL Central is going to be won by a seriously flawed team winning barely more than half their games. If I were betting, I would take the Cardinals at 3-1 over the Brewers at 1-3.

I always wonder how well these projections factor in how existing injuries will affect future team performance, and the greater ability of some teams to make impact deadline deals. With those factors in mind I think the Brewers chances are being overstated relative to the Cardinals and, to a lesser extent, the Mets, Phillies, and Padres.

Looks like Taylor twisted or hyperextended his knee on that play.

A weeks worth of runs in two innings.

Out of a “get on base” position and into a power position. 🙄

Some hitters to make the games entertaining so we don’t have to focus on sideshows.

They did show the video from the third base side camera on the news this morning. Adames saw the ball coming and threw up his arms and was turning away from the ball, so the blow hit him in the back side of his head.

I was confused about that last night too. If you assume there should have been an out on Peralta’s error, in addition to Miller’s to open the inning, only one run would be earned because there were two doubles before the fly out that should have been the third out.. If you don’t assume an out on Peralta’s error a lot more of the runs would be earned. I looked at the box this morning and Peralta was charged with 4 ER, which seems right. The ugly truth remains that he was pretty awful already in the second inning before the Adames incident. With this offense giving up 3 quick runs is usually going to lead to a loss.

You couldn’t see it on TV and if they have it on a different camera they didn’t show it. But, the JSOnline report says he was hanging over the dugout railing (as he often is) and was hit in the side of the head.

Not on a blow to the head. That can cause serious problems even if it doesn’t knock him out immediately.

I think the best case for Adames is a concussion IL stint.

Mercy call from the umpire to end the inning.

I sure don’t feel like going tomorrow.

The game is delayed because Willy Adames got drilled by a foul ball that went into the dugout.

A bad night just got worse.

What a terrible pitch to Bailey. A high, looping curve ball that must have looked like a watermelon.

And after that promising start the Giants take the lead.

He does now.