BruisedCrew

Need a good outing from Woodruff tomorrow to keep the middle relievers out of the game and a win to keep a disappointing series from turning into a bad one.

I think a pinch hitter (Taylor or Hiura) would have been in order for Davis in the 8th. Take the shot at a possible HR to get closer.

Good thing Urias got in there. Dangerous send and it looked like he slowed down coming to the plate.

Don’t hold your breath for Peralta in August. Even if he is pitching by then it won’t be as a starter for the Brewers. From the reports I’ve heard the optimistic scenario would be for Peralta to make some appearances in August or September and be built up to be able to contribute at the end of the season or in the playoffs The offense is going to have to win some games without counting on great pitching because, for the foreseeable future, there are going to be something less than reliable starters 2 or 3 out of every 5 games.

Middle relief not doing the job again today.

Terrible base running by Peterson. On a line drive like that he has to be going back to the bag. If it gets through he can stroll home anyway.

Arenado is starting on another cycle with an HR following a Goldschmidt single. And Gorman follows with another HR and Yepez makes it back to back to back Still waiting for some of these new Cardinals to cool off. Then Carlson makes it 4 straight HR.

Tellez could have had a hit if he had unstrapped the piano from his back.

My guess now is that we won’t be seeing Renfroe until after the All Star break. Because he won’t be starting on field activities until after this road trip he wouldn’t be ready for games for at least a week. At that point it might just make sense to give him more time and take a few ABs in the minors and be ready to play after the break.

I agree about the offense. I’m a lot more encouraged seeing the offense score consistently in the 4-6 range against teams like the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Rays than I am about piling on 19 runs against the Pirates in a game that was all but over in the second inning.

I don’t think my viewpoint is extreme either. Put simply, it is that the Brewers have an offense that is close to NL average that will make it less likely that they will advance in the playoffs (if they get there) than teams that have better offenses and pitching that is as good or better, especially in a playoff setting facing only an opponent’s top pitchers.

Whether I include the American League or not, the Brewers have still scored fewer runs per game than all of the teams that they are competing with for playoff positions. If you don’t want to debate with someone whose opinions are extraordinarily flawed because he doesn’t share your devotion to the intricacies of advanced statistics, then don’t. But, it seems to me that whether you use runs per game or wRC+, or look at all of MLB or just the NL, the conclusion is the same. The Brewers offense is generally average and generally less productive than other NL playoff contenders. You said that some advanced statistics consider quality of opposition, but didn’t answer my question about whether wRC does. Do you know the answer? While we’re on the subject, after tonight’s game the Brewers have scored 368 runs, or 4.65 per game. Scoring 4 games worth of runs in one game does bump up the average, but unfortunately only counts for one win. 210 of these runs have come in the 33 games against the Reds, Nats, Pirates, and Cubs, an average of 6.36 per game. In the other 46 games they have scored 158 runs, or an average of 3.43 per game. That’s a pretty exceptional spread; make of it what you want.

As I have said several times, including on this thread, I compare the Brewers to the teams in the National League because those are the teams they are competing with for playoff positions. The NL average is 4.50 so the Brewers RPG is slightly below that, and lower than the other 7 NL playoff contenders. That is a FACT. Tonight’s explosion will obviously move the average up. As someone said earlier in this thread, huge scoring games can skew the averages Do the advanced stats take the opposition into account? Another FACT is that the worst pitching teams in the NL in terms of runs allowed per game are the Reds, Nats, Rockies, Cubs, and Pirates, all allowing over 5 runs per game. Another FACT is that after tonight, the Brewers will have played 33 of their 79 games against those teams. By the end of next weekend it will be 41 of their 87 games. Does it make sense that a team that plays more games against the most generous pitching staffs should score more runs than, say, the Cardinals, who have played only 24 games against those teams?

Good plan to get a lead in case the storms do come later.

So, he’ll resume throwing in a “couple of weeks” which means pitching in games at least a few weeks after that. Maybe not as bad as it could have been, but still pretty bad.

BTW, I also want to add that I question using a runs created formula as the best way to measure a team’s offense. I have known about the runs created concept since the late 70’s when I first saw Bill James Baseball Abstracts. I fully understand the value of runs created as it has evolved over the years as a way to measure a player’s performance and contribution to a team scoring runs. It does make more sense than the traditional things like RBI which are dependent on opportunities that are out of the player’s control. But, when it comes to evaluating a team’s offense, as opposed to a player’s offense, I think it makes more sense to go right to the simple measure of how many runs the team has scored. Maybe the team’s total as computed by runs created is a good predictor of how many runs the team SHOULD score, why not go to what really counts: how many runs do they ACTUALLY score So, when I say that the Brewers offense is below league average, I am looking directly at runs scored per game, not some advanced statistic that measures something else. If the Brewers runs created numbers rank them higher relative to other teams than actual runs scored, maybe that’s a sign that they don’t do as well as they should at taking advantage of scoring opportunities

On the World Series percentages, the most recent one I saw was today on Baseball Reference which showed it at 1.3%. If other sites have it higher fine. That really has no bearing on the bigger issue of the Brewers offense. On the issue of the hottest teams, you seem to be ignoring my point that the Braves last year had the best record in the NL in August and September, and the Nats in 2019 had the best record in the league from July 1 on. They didn’t just suddenly turn it on in the playoffs. As I said, If the Brewers put together the best record in the league in the second half of the season I will be more bullish about their playoff prospects. Time will tell if having to play a 2 or 3 game playoff series just to advance to the Division series puts a team at a disadvantage. If nothing else, you would have to agree that even playing that series significantly reduces a team’s chances of advancing to or winning the World Series as compared to a team that gets a bye into the second round. It is my understanding that, after the regular ends on Wednesday, October 5, the wild card round be played on Friday through Monday and the division series will start on Tuesday and Wednesday. Presumably, the league that starts its wild card series on Friday will start its division series on Tuesday and the other league will start its wild card series on Saturday and the division series on Wednesday. For the teams that get the byes, even if they had to fight to the last day to win their spot, they can set their rotation for the division series however they want with every one of their pitchers having at least 5 days rest. For the teams that have to play the wild card round, they might have as little as one day between their last regular season game and their first playoff game. Using the Brewers as an example, they might want to have Burnes and Woodruff starting the first two games of that series unless they were needed in the final day or two just to get into the playoffs. If they win that wild series, the first games of the division round would be just 4 days after their first playoff game. Unless they are willing to start throwing their pitchers out with only 3 days rest, they might have to use a fourth starter against their opponent’s ace. They would also probably be limited to using their best starting pitchers just once in the series. IMHO, that ability to set the pitching staff can give the home team a real advantage in what is already a short series. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that as there is no past history to rely on in this unprecedented format. But, you know there will be a lot of talk about it when the playoffs approach

Kind of ironic to be criticized for picking and choosing dates after a post about the offense over the last two weeks. I choose the May 5 date because it followed the 9 games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Reds in which the Brewers exploded for a disproportionate number of runs. But, if you want to look at the whole season to date, the Brewers are still outperforming their projected Pythagorean record by about 3 wins. Some objective observers would look at that as a sign that the Brewers have been a little fortunate. Their offense for the whole season is still below league average, even with the recent uptick. As far as the team going forward, we really can’t be sure who will be playing and how they will perform. We don’t know who it will be but we have to assume there will be more inuries, both for the Brewers and other teams. We also don’t know what player movement there will be and if the Brewers will improve themselves more or less than the competition. As I’ve said many times, one of my fundamental differences with several posters on this board is that I am not just hoping for the Brewers to slip into the playoffs by winning the weakest division in the NL, and hoping for a hot streak to get them through 4 playoff series. The same projection sites that give the Brewers a good probability of making the playoffs give them about a 2% chance of winning the World Series, which is significantly lower than it was last year and lower than it was at the start of the season. I don’t subscribe to the idea that the playoffs are a complete crapshoot and all a team has to do is get there. In the new playoff system, the top two division winners have a significant advantage from a pure mathematical perspective, not to mention the advantage of going into the division series with a lined up starting rotation and a rested bullpen against a team that may have had to use up a lot of ammunition just to get out of the wild card round. If the Brewers can step things up and put together the best record in the league over the last 2 months like the Braves did last year, or the last 3 months like the Nats in 2019, I will be more bullish about their chances of making a playoff run. In the meantime, I’m not going to apologize for looking at the team through a critical lens.

It’s my understanding that teams are required to submit their lineups to the Commissioner’s office, and have them processed and approved, before releasing them to the media or posting them to players. The goal is to prevent bettors from getting inside information about who is and isn’t in the lineup before it is available to the general public. This submission usually takes place 2-3 hours before game time. I doubt if Counsell is trying to gain any competitive advantage by posting later. Last night the Brewers had their lineup out before the Pirates.

My opinion about the offense has been as consistent as it could be, starting in the off-season and continuing to today. It’s not the worst in the Nl and it’s not the best. It is squarely in the middle, which makes it the worst, or close to the worst, among the NL playoff contenders. The question coming into the season was whether elite pitching could be enough to counterbalance a mediocre offense. Now that the pitching is not elite due to injuries and underperformance, the offense has to be better for the Brewers to make the playoffs, much less make a deep run in them. A somewhat larger sample of games going back to May 5 shows the Brewers going 26-26 with a run differential of -20. That is also the worst record and run differential of any of the NL playoff contenders during that period. An objective observer might say that the Brewers are fortunate to have the record they do. Maybe a more favorable schedule will help turn things around, but that has to be accompanied by better play. There were hopes that Lauer and Houser would recover from their terrible June performances, but any comeback from Houser is now on hold indefinitely.

It wouldn’t be a trip to Pittsburgh without at least one rain delay. Tonight’s game could be a candidate. If it happens, I hope it isn’t one of those mid game delays that cuts Burnes’ appearance short.

I think Pirates fans are happy with any game they win against the Brewers.

A homer in the top of the ninth would be huge.

Is the ump sure that 2-2 pitch didn’t catch the top of the zone?

Are you assuming that the Brewers TBD on Saturday is better than the Pirates TBD? if Ashby isn’t ready it might be Gonzalez.