BruisedCrew

I’ve been going to Brewers games for 52 seasons and this was only an issue last year. I was hoping after the Cubs game that this year would be back to normal.

If the only Brewers games you saw were the ones we’ve attended the last two years you would assume they were a 100 loss team.

The Demons of the Weekend 10 pack are alive and well. Lose a game and a pitcher.

Today will be a good test to see if the Demons of the Weekend 10 Pack that haunted us last year have really been exorcised. Last year there were several times that the 10 pack included the only game the Brewers lost in a series. This year we went to the Saturday game against the Cubs, a comfortable 9-1 win, but the Brewers were shut out on Sunday, making me think the Demons might have thought that was our game. The pitching matchup looks favorable for the Brewers today, but the Demons have been able to overcome that in the past.

To be complete he went to 3-2 on the fourth batter and was one pitch away from bringing the tying run to the plate with one out. I think Counsell was squirming a little and didn’t hesitate to yank him after that.

I would question whether that’s an accurate use of the probabilities. I would say that teams win 99% of the time in those situations because in many of them they are using their best relievers. If you throw Perdomo out there that percentage is going to go down, especially if he has to face 3 hitters no matter what he does. Just to be clear, I am never one who recommends using Hader with a one run deficit. My comment tonight was simply that I get nervous using a pitcher like Milner in that situation, especially when Hader has had so little work in the last few weeks. I didn’t even say that I thought it was a bad move on Counsell’s part. It’s just that the situation is different than it was before the 3 hitter rule when you could yank a pitcher quickly if he, for example, walks the first two hitters to start the inning.

That is what he said, and that is impressive. Given that scoring is generally lower this year I wonder if a record like that would be that unusual for a team that has good overall pitching. I did a quick look at the Dodgers scoring and they are 25-3 when scoring 4 or more runs. So, while it might not be incredible, the Brewers are in good company. I also looked quickly at the Mets and Cardinals, two other teams among the league leaders in runs allowed. The Mets are 21-3 and the Cards are 17-5 when scoring 4 or more. The league as a whole is winning about 76% of the time when scoring 4 or more runs, so I guess it shouldn’t be surprising that teams that have the best pitching would be doing better than that, especially if they are scoring more than exactly 4 in most of those games. The Brewers have only scored exactly 4 runs 3 times and are 2-1 in those games. They have also scored exactly 3 runs 3 times and are 2-1 in those games. So, maybe the Brewers magic number is really 3 runs because they are 23-4 when scoring at least that many. In 10 of their 14 losses they have scored only 2 runs or less.

Scratch the labels and I’ll be more direct. I don’t like seeing Milner start the 9th inning with a 4 run lead because of the uncomfortably high risk that he’ll put 3 men on base before he gets 3 outs.

I apologize for not using the official terminology. I’m using “back end” of the bullpen the way you would use “back end “of the starting rotation. In other words, not one of your better pitchers or one of the first guys you’d want to go to in a high leverage spot late in the game. If they had a 3 run lead they would bring Hader in because it’s a save situation and he’d have a little cushion. With a 4 run lead and bringing in one of your lesser relievers you’re running a risk of giving away any cushion if that reliever allows 3 baserunners.

OK. I’m using the term “back end” when maybe I should use the less flattering “bottom of the barrel” or “mop up”.

He’s near the back end of the Brewers bullpen. And he’s making this one interesting.

With the 3 hitter rule I always think it’s a gamble bringing in a back end reliever with a 4 run lead. I remember the series against the Nats last year when the Brewers had big leads going into the ninth and ended up bringing in Hader anyway. At least Milner got the first out so at worst it would be tying run on deck with one out when Hader comes in.

Of course I arrived at the Honolulu airport from the resort. That can be done in few innings.

So, the unexpected happened. I got to the airport and saw that the score was 4 to 3 in the ninth inning and was able to watch most of the rest, including the game winner. A very good game and series win going into the off day.

Today I’m leaving Hawaii where the game started at 7:10 AM. I don’t think I’ll be spending much more time this morning checking scores. If the unexpected happens, great. Burnes has been hurt by solo HRs all season, and a 3 run HR figures to be too much to overcome.

Adames is going on the IL.

If you want to look at facts you have to look at all of the relevant ones. In the case of runs scored per game it is relevant who the runs are scored against (not just which teams but which pitchers) and how the runs are distributed among games. In the Brewers case, they had that string of high scoring games against the Cubs, Pirates and Reds that really inflated the R/G number, moving them from near the bottom of MLB to near the top. They have slid back some over the last ten days even with the double digit outburst in the loss to the Reds. Not all runs are created equal. Scoring 18 runs in a game by piling it on the back end starters and mop up men (including position players) and then combining that with two shutouts produces a 6 R/G average and a record of 1-2. Scoring 6 runs in each of 3 games produces the same R/G, but very possibly 2 or 3 wins with reasonably effective pitching. Maybe the Brewers’ overall mix of very high scoring games and very low scoring games is no different than MLB’s top scoring teams, even when taking into account how many games the teams have played against the league’s weakest teams. But it would require a dive deeper than the surface level of R/G. IMHO, a “narrative” that it might have been expected that the Brewers would have trouble scoring against a pitcher like Ian Anderson is not so easily dismissed.

This has turned into a really humbling trip. 3-5 is not great by itself, but what makes it worse is that 4 of the 5 losses have been blowouts. And none of the 3 opponents is currently over .500. The Brewers have been pretty bad in all 3 phases.

That was the highlight of the night for me. I’m glad I decided to watch the last two minutes when I saw it had gotten closer. Otherwise I can’t stand the hacking, flopping, and whining.

Interesting summary. I generally don’t watch much of NBA games during the regular season because I don’t care that much for the style and the effort is often inconsistent. But, after watching most of the first game of the Bucks-Celtics series, I’m not interested in watching much more. The physical play you described is not basketball to me. I enjoy college games much more. I was a huge NBA fan in my younger days, and went to many Bucks games when the franchise was born in my high school years, and was a big fan until about the mid 80’s but became disenchanted with how the style of play evolved and how the officiating seemed to favor big stars and big market teams. The last straw may have been game 7 of a Bucks-Celtics series in 1987. The Bucks had a lead in the final minutes when the slightest contact would send Larry Bird to the free throw line while the Bucks were being called for offensive fouls away from the ball for “illegal screens”. If there was a league conspiracy to favor the Celtics they did a lousy job covering it. I still hope for the Bucks to win because it’s a neat thing for the community. But if I watch the games it’s often on replays after I know the result because it doesn’t make me as mad and I can fast forward through the dreary parts. That having been said, the way the Celtics dominated game 2 and the fourth quarters of the last two games gives me the impression that the Bucks are lucky to be at 2-2. Unless something changes significantly they’ll be lucky to get to a game 7.

To be complete about the story, the Dodgers used a bullpen game today. They didn't see one of their regular starters light the fuse for a double digit outburst for the second time in 3 days.

I made a post near the end of last night’s game after Devin Williams couldn’t get out of the 8th inning after starting with a 4 run lead, and the Brewers only got out of the inning when Urias made a diving grab on a soft liner that threatened to put the Reds ahead. The comment was: “The last few days have exposed the Brewers bullpen as not nearly the strong point everyone assumed it would be. And if the starters keep laboring to go 5 or 6 innings it’s going to become a big problem.” If you want to see the responses that comment triggered, you can see them on the game thread. First, let me make it clear that what follows is not a criticism of any of Counsell’s decisions regarding going with a 6 day rotation at this stage of the season or how he has used the bullpen. (Although in light of how the last week has gone with several short starts taxing the bullpen, Hader only pitching one inning in almost 2 weeks, and an off day on Thursday, it's harder to justify not bringing Hader in once it became obvious that Williams was struggling. It is fortunate that Naquin didn’t tie the game or put the Reds ahead. My comment about short starts from the starters comes from this perspective: 1. I understand that starting pitchers generally don’t cover as many innings as they did decades ago. 2. The Brewers are supposed to have one of the best, if not the best, starting rotations in MLB. So, IMHO, statistics showing that the Brewers starters are among the league leaders in things like average IP per start and quality starts are not the standard the Brewers should be held to. 3. This is especially true because so many teams occasionally have to resort to “bullpen games” in which the plan is for the starter to go one inning, or maybe 2, and those starts are going to drive down their averages. It seems like Brewers opponents have done this several times, including strong teams like the Giants and Braves. 4. Because of the 6 man starting rotation, and the desire to use Boxberger, Williams, and Hader in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of winnable games, even with 14 pitchers on the roster, that leaves 5 pitchers to cover innings when the starter can’t complete 6. They also have to cover innings in lopsided games and games in which the Brewers are trailing going into the 7th inning or the top end relievers are unavailable due to heavy usage. 5. Right now, those 5 back end of the bullpen relievers are Suter, Milner, Gott, Perdomo, and Mejia (replacing Gustave). Gott has been effective, and Suter is a known commodity. But these are generally not pitchers you want to see very often in the highest leverage situations. 6. The Brewers as a staff may be among the league leaders with an average of 5.1 (or whatever it is) IP per start and 13 quality starts, but that is largely Burnes and Lauer weighting the scale to cover very poor peformances from Woodruff and Peralta. The IP per start from the 5 top starters so far have been: Burnes 6.4, Lauer 5.9, Houser 5.3, Woodruff 4.4 , and Peralta 4.4. Even Ashby in his 3 starts has covered slightly more IP per start (4.55) than Peralta and Woodruff. 7. Of the 13 quality starts, Burnes has 5, Lauer has 4,Houser has 2, and Woodruff and Peralta have one each (both against the Pirates). So, again, Burnes and Lauer are carrying the load and Woodruff and Peralta are not coming close to the standards expected from them. 8. I understand that it’s early in the season and not a time to panic. But, I come back to my comment from last night about the recent run through the rotation and the impact it has on the bullpen. Forcing the back end relievers to enter just to get through the 5th and 6th innings reduces the manager’s options both in that game and possibly future games. And when one of the top end relievers like Williams has a bad outing like last night, and Hader will not be used before the 9th, you’re going to see things like Perdomo trying to get out of a critical inning. You can blame the bullpen for that, but short starts from supposed aces of the staff share a significant part of the blame. Needing 3 relievers on Sunday and 4 more on Monday just to complete 8 innings in blowout losses might have impacted Tuesday’s game. 9. BTW, I wrote this before Houser's awful start today that does nothing to help the problem. An off day tomorrow and another one next Thursday might help. But when the Brewers face a stretch of 18 games in 17 days after that (11 of them on the road) they're going to need better performances and more innings covered by their SP, not just Burnes and Lauer.

That’s an understatement on the level of “Albert Pujols doesn’t run all that well”.

According to the pitch by pitch on the MLB site Urias looked at a strike then swung at two balls out of the strike zone

I haven't had the telecast on yet so I don't know bad the defense has been but the highlights of the run scoring hits suggest that Houser isn't exactly on top of his game either. Another short start to further tax the bullpen that has been cuffed around pretty badly the last few days.