CheeseheadInQC

I believe that the Rodriguez-Ernesto July 2 class was the year after Abreu's so I'd think that group would be in eligible this season. Also, I think Ramey has one more season. This group is kind of a who's who of the 20-50 spots on a Brewers prospect list. I don't know if there is a single lock. Howell is the one guy probably ranked higher and probably the most likely to be protected, but if he struggles during the rest of the AA season, I could see the Brewers trying to sneak him through, especially in a Rule 5 draft likely to be pretty deep. Also, I wouldn't count out Andrews getting protected, even with the injury. He was looking like a lock to be added before it, and the Brewers seemed to be giving every indication he was in their bullpen plans for the future. Usually, the guys who get picked are either MLB-ready or have higher-end potential. The MLB ready guys on the list who could by picked seem to be Wilson and Barker (who, as I've said before, I hope gets taken for his sake), maybe Fry if a team thinks he can catch well enough to be a No. 2 at that spot. Andrews sort of straddles this category with injury stash potential. I don't know, other than Howell and maybe Lutz if a team thinks they can get him right, if any of the other guys are likely to get taken. If Uribe were eligible, he'd fall into the high-potential end of the spectrum, but I just don't know if guys like Robinson and Castaneda have that kind of cred to balance out not pitching above A ball. Webb has stuff but is older and has struggled. Brown has been hurt. Lazar had a great 2019, but the injury, velocity and not pitching above A-ball make him unlikely to be picked. Bullock is a maybe, but probably has to finish strong at AA to have a realistic shot. Martinez certainly has upside on the hitting end, but a combination of the swing, the strikeout rate and the distance from the majors make him unlikely, and I don't know that I can see anyone giving a big league roster spot to any of the High-A outfielders (Ward, Castillo, Rodriguez). As far as chances to get protected: 75% -- Howell 50% -- Lutz, Andrews 25% -- Bullock, Wilson, Fry, Rodriguez < 10% -- Everyone else

For as much attention as Clancy's picks get, in reality, so long as the number of voters stays at least where it is now, you could make a case that his ballot helps correctly place a certain type of prospect on the also receiving votes list. There isn't anything all that exciting about Fry, but the list of guys who have hit as well as he has (especially among those who don't have previous AA experience) since the Brewers affiliate moved to Biloxi is short enough where he probably belongs about where he is on the also receiving votes list. He is one of those guys who if he showed up in the 20-25 range on anyone else's ballot I don't think anyone would be all that shocked. Not defending where he has them placed (or his sticking by QTC over a host of more viable relief options), but when folded in with the other results those outliers who he ranks high probably have a net neutral effect on the final list.

This is really premature, but have the Brewers ever had a July 2 signing start the year in full season ball after just one year in the system? I'd imagine they'd prefer to take things a little more slowly like they have with Perez, but man Mendez hasn't missed a beat since coming stateside.

The issue with guys like Wilson and Fry is, do the Brewers see them as prospects? Because if they don’t, the chances of them making an impact with the team are minimal. I didn’t have either in the top 25, but if they are added to the 40-man at the end of the year, they probably move into the 20-25 range for me.

I wonder if this poll was taken now how many guys who are outside the top 25 would be in it. Maybe Mendez and Wiemer? It is interesting that there are about half as many players with single digit votes as last time despite I believe the same number of ballots. Although, perhaps in part because of injuries to some of the sleepers, it does really feel like there is a group of about 50 after which there is a pretty clear tier-break but not a lot of distance between 20-50, so having fewer single-digit guys I guess makes sense. Also, I'll stand by giving Reifert his one point. Since the calendar turned to July, in 25 2/3 innings: ERA, 0.70; WHIP, 0.89; K/9, 15.4; K/BB, 4.89.

Nice to see the Brewers climbing up the rankings a little bit. The MLB roster is pretty stacked with controllable talent that either graduated from the system or was acquired via dealing prospects... Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Hader, Williams, Suter, Cousins, Sanchez, Narvaez, Rowdy, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Taylor The high minors are kind of slim, but Ashby, Turang, Mitchell, Small and even Feliciano all have floors of MLB players with varying degrees of upside beyond that & have already started trickling into MLB with the rest likely to get at least a taste by 2022. Then there is the collection of hitting talent in the low minors, which while lacking in the sure things like Braun/Fielder, might be the most exciting group of position players coming up since the early Melvin years. Throw in the leaps & bounds that have been made in developing pitching since Stearns & company arrived and I can't really think of a time when the organization was in a better position to maintain long term competetiveness. I completely agree on the hitting prospects. That being said, as good as the Brewers have been with pitchers of late, the scarcity of pitching prospects below AAA is probably the biggest weakness. You could make a case that the best pitching prospects at Biloxi are a guy who was part of the COVID purge and another guy anonymous enough coming into the year that I mistakenly thought he had been. Similarly at Wisconsin, I'd say the best one is an UDFA reliever. At Carolina once you get past Kelly, especially with Uribe on the 60-day IL, maybe Cam Robinson or the newly promoted Jefferson Figueroa? Plus there are maybe five guys on the ACL rosters who look to ready for full season ball next year. They need some combination of this year's draft picks, the guys who have been injured most of this season and some of the young guys in the complex leagues to develop to keep a bit of balance in the organization.

According to the Carolina roster page, it appears as if Binelas, Murray and Jefferson Figueroa have all been moved up to the Mudcats. Between this and the Cantrelle news, I wonder if Valerio and one of the other infielders (Zamora, Holt or McGee) will be moving up to Wisconsin. The Timber Rattlers would appear to be a little sparse on the infield right now.

Think Cheesehead was talking about the K rate since returning from injury. Small sample of course, but only 8 Ks over 47 PAs (17% K rate) with a 357/426/667 triple slash since coming back. Yep, I was talking about since he came back. Hopefully he can keep it lower even when he inevitably cools off a bit.

And perhaps most importantly he is striking out at less than a 20% clip. If this isn't a blip, he suddenly becomes very interesting again.

He still is swinging and missing too much, but it is starting to feel like if he can stay healthy he at least might have a Keon Broxton-type of big half season in him at some point, whether for the Brewers or someone else.

I rarely hope the Brewers lose guys in the Rule 5 draft, for obvious reasons, but I'm to the point where I'd cheer if someone selected Barker after the season. Most true presumed AAAA guys (the ones who excel in AAA, especially from Day 1, not just top out at AAA) eventually get at least a chance at the big league level to show if they are more than that, and I really hope Barker gets that chance as well.

Except there are a few key differences between Turang and Arcia. The question with Turang is will be develop power. Arcia developed it, he just couldn't utilize it much because of other issues. Arcia is also much more of a pull hitter whereas Turang is a spray line drives to all fields guy. I'm sure you could find more applicable negative comps as well, but his statistical profile from Biloxi seems much more akin to Wong or Adam Frazier or the recent version of Miguel Rojas than Arcia. That type of profile can play, especially when it is attached to a solid middle infield defender. Also, the Brewers started the year with three healthy shortstops on their full season minor league rosters (Turang, Hamilton, Zamora) and one who was injured (Pinero). A lot of guys have seen time at shortstop simply because someone has to play there.

Not sure this is the best place to ask, but since I've seen him mentioned on several of the longer lists, anyone know why Daniel Guilarte isn't on any of the rosters? I know he was close in the pre-signing rankings to Barrios and Mendez, but I didn't include him because I wasn't sure if the signing had fallen through.

Otherwise forgettable game for the T-Rats, but Reifert has been dealing. Given it seems like I'm going to be making him the prospect poll's version of Mr. Irrelevant, since the calendar flipped to July, he has 20 innings, 10 hits, 1 earned run, 8 walks and 33 strikeouts. Walks are still a touch high, but everything else has been dominant.

Yah, there has been a lot to like about Turang’s performance even if the results have been meh. He doesn’t swing and miss much, his strikeout to walk ratio is still above average, he hits a lot of line drives and uses all fields. I am a little surprised that there wasn’t a corresponding move from Carolina, where seemingly 2/3 of the position players on the roster are in a position where they could get promoted and no one would bat an eye. Maybe they want to give Pinero a chance to show he belongs. Will be interesting to see if they keep playing Howell at short. With Pinero there, it wouldn’t be a “well someone has to play there” thing either.

Notes: 1. I held off posting until after the trade deadline, but I legitimately had Olson, Henry and Hummel 18-19-20 2. Both the strength and weakness of the system is that there doesn't seem to be much difference between 20 and 50 1. Garrett Mitchell: Hopefully can get back soon 2. Brice Turang: Pretty young for level. Not shining, but not overwhelmed 3. Sal Frelick: Thought this was a pretty solid pick 4. Ethan Small: Drop in K’s at AAA a bit of a concern 5. Aaron Ashby: Needs to hone the command 6. Hedbert Perez: So far, so good, but still far away 7. Mario Feliciano: Lost season, but still a top-10 talent 8. Joe Gray Jr.: Seems to have adjusted to High-A 9. Antoine Kelly: Six slots too low or 20 slots too high depending on if he can get all the way back 10. Tyler Black: Sounds like he can hit 11. Jeferson Quero: Living up to the hype so far 12. Eduardo Garcia: Was hoping he’d force his way up to Carolina 13. Jake Cousins: Too good thus far to place much lower 14. Korry Howell: Assuming the defense is solid, versatility is a plus 15. Zavier Warren: Biggest question is still position 16. Felix Valerio: Love the walk to strikeout rate 17. Freddy Zamora: Giving him slight pass with injury then COVID season, but bat must improve 18. Dylan File: One of many lost seasons for Brewers pitching prospects 19. Jheremy Vargas: One of the top performers in Arizona thus far 20. David Hamilton: I’ll admit, no clue where to rank him 21. Tristen Lutz: Not ready to give up on him entirely 22. Justin Topa: Still think he can be a good bullpen piece next year 23. Abner Uribe: Command must improve, but 103 … 24. Hendry Mendez: Perhaps overreaction, but one K in first 40 plate appearances with pop 25. Evan Reifert: Fangraphs writeup and recent success have me optimistic 26. Max Lazar 27. Jackson Chourio 28. Miguel Sanchez 29. Angel Perdomo 30. Russell Smith 31. Alec Bettinger 32. Justin Bullock 33. Corey Ray 34. Carlos Luna: Will be watching if they put him on 40-man 35. Alex Binelas 36. Darrien Miller: Having better A-ball hitting season than Henry at same age 37. Joey Wiemer 38. Jesus Parra 39. Micah Bello 40. Victor Castaneda 41. Zach Brown 42. David Fry 43. Hayden Cantrelle 44. Israel Puello 45. Weston Wilson 46. Luis Medina 47. Thomas Dillard 48. Ashton McGee 49. Noah Campbell 50. Pablo Abreu 51. Carlos Rodriguez (OF) 52. Taylor Floyd 53. Nick Bennett 54. L.G. Castillo 55. Ernesto Martinez 56. Alexis Ramirez 57. Mark Mathias 58. Brandon Ramey 59. Luke Barker 60. Gabe Holt 61. Jhonnys Cabrera 62. Eduarqui Fernandez 63. Je'Von Ward 64. Clayton Andrews 65. Logan Henderson 66. Noah Zavalos 67. Jesus Chirinos 68. Gregory Barrios 69. Eduarh Colina: One of my favorite deep, deep sleepers 70. Alexander Perez 71. Patricio Aquino: Him and next two guys’ have eye-popping stats thus far 72. Miguel Segura 73. Stiven Cruz 74. Yujanyer Herrera 75. Harold Chirino 76. Brandon Knarr 77. Luis Contreras 78. Jesus Lujano 79. Branlyn Jaraba 80. Alexander Vallecillo 81. Nick Kahle 82. Terrence Doston 83. Mario Perez 84. Jose Gonzalez 85. Jadher Areinamo 86. Lun Zhao 87. Justin Jarvis 88. Andre Nnebe 89. Carlos Roa 90. Cam Robinson 91. Erys Bautista 92. Edwin Jimenez 93. Nick Belzer 94. Juan Geraldo 95. Alex Hall 96. Antonio Pinero 97. Alexander Cornielle 98. Scott Sunitsch 99. Brady Schanuel 100. Cam Devanney

I'm not even sure that the value is off, but I wish that a comparable value hitter would have been dealt instead. We don't have nearly the same depth of pitching prospects in the lower levels of the minors as we have hitting prospects. Olson was one of the guys that I was kind of hoping wouldn't get dealt unless it was slam dunk value for that reason. And yes, I thought this year's high school Rule 5 group was the Lutz, Lazar, Bullock group with Olson, Turang, Gray, Bello, etc. after next year.

How many of these have been updated? I know Fangraphs has Duran about 130. I also wonder if there is also more inertia in those rankings than some teams, who might be more willing to think the improvements are real because of the missing year. Not saying it was a good or bad trade, just that evaluating based on prospect rankings is dicier than normal this year.

Not a whole lot going right on the minor league side tonight, but since he homered, is Darrien Miller getting slept on a bit? No clue how he is defensively, but despite missing last season, he is producing better than Henry did at the same age and level, and last I looked he was clearly having the best offensive season of any of the prep catchers in his draft class.

The problem is, given where the Brewers have played him the past two seasons (2019, 2021), it seems they view him as an emergency catcher only who would be an option next year in left field (don't think they are moving Yelich to right at this point), DH (if it comes to the NL) and 1B (if the experiment went well). He would have been more competition for Vogelbaugh's roster spot than a Garcia replacement. Like I said in the minor league thread, I've come around to him likely having a big league future, but I'm thinking more Yandy Diaz if you substitute LF for third base as that half of his position split.

Alberto Ciprian signed for $500,000 in 2019. While he still falls into the category of “lottery ticket”, he was a somewhat expensive international acquisition for the Brewers and likely isn’t just some total throw away prospect. Obviously being in the DSL he’s someone teams have a much better handle on than prospect writers. As a comparison, Hedbert Perez signed for $700,000 in 2019. Between the dollar figure and the early performance, you could make the case he was the third best prospect on either DSL team, behind only Chourio and Mendez. Not a top prospect by any means, but perhaps one of the better long-term sleepers.

I was wondering if they were showcasing Hummel for a trade with him playing catcher again and then some first base recently.

Luna just keeps getting guys out. It will be interesting to see if the Brewers are high enough on him as a prospect to add him to the 40-man at year's end.

Why do you consider him a backup? He's fourth on the team in plate appearances despite not being activated until the end of May. Since then it seems he's played about as regularly as anyone other than maybe Green. For me there are 14-15 prospects who really stand out and then a very large, flat tier, and Hummel's strikeout and walk rates at such a high level make him as good of a guess as any of them. Upside is tantalizing, but let's face it, better than 50/50 if we go back in a dozen years and look at the WAR for everyone eligible for this list, a reliever like Cousins is in the top 10. Sometimes there is something to be said for likelihood of being a passable major leaguer.

He's a backup at AAA. Never played an inning of 1B before a couple days ago, but OK. You do you. While he does need to show he can actually play the position and isn't Khris Davis defensively, among guys with at least 100 at-bats, Hummel ranks among the top 5 in the system in walk rate (#1), K rate, ISO and swinging strike rate (only non-middle infielder in the top 5). Age and defensive value are definite knocks but the idea of Hummel being able to be a competent big league hitter can't be discounted at this point. Compare him to Thomas Dillard, who kind of seems to have a similar profile at this point (defensive limited emergency catcher). It is getting increasingly tough to make the case for Dillard being the better prospect. He's going to be on my list this time around, albeit more in the 15-20 area.