CheeseheadInQC

Hey, fair point. It’s not like Small’s strikeout rate was 11 per 9 in 2021 or anything. That would’ve been nice. He struck out about 14 per 9 in double-A and about 6 per 9 in triple-A. If you think that the triple-A stats were a blip, then you probably have him higher. If you think he's going to have trouble missing bats against more advanced hitters, then you probably have him lower. I'm not saying one or the other is correct, just that there is some evidence to back up concerns over his upside even if I think he probably at least becomes a Brent Suter type.

Freddy Peralta I don't think Freddy Peralta K'd less than 10 per 9 in any stop after he was a 20-year-old in high-A. Peralta might not hit 100 on the radar gun, but that doesn't mean the stuff isn't electric. Small's walk rate did come down in winter ball, but the strikeout rates were closer to what he posted at AAA than AA.

The causes for concern are the higher walk rate last year and the precipitous drop in strikeouts after moving to AAA. The 5-8 range feels right at this point

It is possible both are correct. There is no rule preventing them from talking but the league has told them not to in order to avoid any appearance of bad faith.

If I recall correctly, they seemed to hint that 2-4 were pretty close, with all being bubble top 100 guys. There are things to like about Turang (the defensive reports, the fact he was one of only two Brewers prospects in the upper minors with a 10%+ walk rate and a less than 20% K rate, the level for his age) and reasons for concern (the power). I'm looking forward to the Fangraphs one, especially if the lack of instructs doesn't affect it too much, just to see which sleeper prospects they feel warrant at least a sentence at the end. Is there a random mention of Blayberg Diaz or Shane Smith or someone like that to go with hopefully a bit on a few of the complex league pitchers?

I'd add Miguel Segura, Jefferson Figueroa and Brailin Rodriguez to that list as well (the fact that the Brewers pushed Rodriguez up to A-ball despite his age and stats to me seems to say they see something in him). I'd say we might encounter a couple of these on the Fangraphs list, but it seems like they routinely got a lot of their info on the under-the-radar complex guys during instructs, and given the Brewers didn't have traditional instructs this year, we might see fewer appearances by this type of player on their list than normal.

I believe you are correct, so I am not sure about minor league free agents signed after that date (I wondered if a few of them weren't officially announced until later for that exact purpose). I disagree with a few of Damuelle's picks, but I do think there is a very good chance the Brewers lose someone in the AAA phase, unless the pandemic year has left every team in this position.

Now the word is postponed indefinitely, which makes more sense. I think there would have been an uproar from teams that cleared spots were it canceled outright. I imagine it will be two days or so after the lockout ends. I had read the plan had been for the minor league portion of the winter meetings to go on as planned, so I am not surprised they are splitting the two drafts.

Of the two prospects, I prefer Hamilton, but I kind of regret having to send out Binelas more simply because he offers a skillset that the system doesn't have in abundance, unlike Hamilton. That being said, I like the trade, especially if it frees up money to make another move.

All of the stuff regarding steals and playing other positions are kind of secondary, though, right? If Martinez can consistently make contact against higher level pitching with that swing, he pretty much has too much physical projection to not be a big leaguer. The problem is, with him, that is a big if.

Sadly it's become an irrelevant forum for egotistical writers to grandstand, considering the arguable greatest player of all time is very likely to fall off the ballot this year. Might there be a number who can get a bit sanctimonious, sure. But can you say with certainty Bonds or Clemens would get 75% from any group, be it former players or even fans? To some degree, it kind of feels like there is some notion that they are taking a “we didn’t create this mess; you decide how to handle it,” in just passing off the lot of them to the era committee. I can’t completely blame them. They have murky instructions and a plethora of options (take the numbers at face value, put none in, try to divine who would be in the Hall without steroids and who wouldn’t). With no set standards of course you aren’t going to get consensus.

Howell seems to be somewhere between the upside stashes, who are often younger, and the ready to contribute guys. I could see him getting picked, but I could also see the K rate scaring teams off. It seems like there are usually a couple of guys like Wilson and Fry who get picked, but who knows which team's version gets taken. I'd say that it seems like they will lose one of these guys, but I thought the same thing the last couple of years, so ... While I don't know if they will lose anyone in the major league Rule 5 draft, looking at the numbers, it seems like there is a decent shot they lose someone in the minor league phase. Numbers-wise, they might have expose a couple of guys who could attract interest, be it an outfield prospect (Abreu, Ward, Castillo, Lujano) or a young pitcher (Murphy, Vassalotti) or a chunk of the organization's catching depth (Hall, Diaz, Rios), a rookie ball guy (Chirinos, Larry Ernesto) or someone coming off an injury (Lemons, Sunitsch). It isn't like last year where, in part because of the COVID purge, they just protected almost everyone. Will be interesting to see if we get a preview (albeit not a perfect one) of who they protected on the Nashville roster page in the next couple of days like happened last year.

Don't know if this is the place for it, but I saw at least three former Brewers prospects added: Hummell, Francis and Gillaspie

Well, that was really wrong. I was getting less confident Howell would be protected, but I am surprised that no one was. It will be interesting to see if any get picked.

With tomorrow being the deadline, I'll give my guess as two of Howell, Wilson and Fry (I'll say Howell and Wilson) and if there is a third it is Andrews.

Until I looked him up and realized it was a different player, I thought that the Brewers had 1. brought back Johnny Davis and 2. he'd gotten formal.

Ditto. Thrilled for Burnes and glad that it really did come down to him and Wheeler. While they weren't the biggest names, those were the two best pitchers in the NL (and really all of the MLB) last season.

I do think Reifert is being undersold a bit, if not here then elsewhere in discussions of this trade. A large chunk of the bad walk rate can be traced to a stretch where he pulled a Jimmy Nelson and saw his walk rate shoot up for a stretch after getting a midseason promotion. From July on he was I believe between 9% and 10%, which while not ideal is pretty standard for short relievers. I think you could make a good case he was the Brewers pitching prospect below AAA most likely to eventually reach the majors. His 2021 is basically what we're hoping Abner Uribe does next year. And although I gave him his one vote in the poll, I think he still deserved a spot in the top 25 before this trade happened. If you think Brosseau will bounce back, it still makes sense from a Brewers perspective, but I think the Rays did this for more than just the 40-man spot, as has been speculated elsewhere.

Looks like a nice pickup, but selfishly sad to see Reifert go. It was nice to have someone from my area both in the Brewers system and succeeding, especially since the last one was Cody Adams.

Britbox and Acorn have a lot of good mysteries. The longer form than most US procedurals really adds something.

The news that some of the presumptive minor league free agents actually aren't adds a few possible names to this list. Would some team take a flyer on Dahl or Perdomo? Is Luna highly enough thought of (and healthy)?

I had Majik and then was thinking Dilweg but that was two years prior. I won't spoil the other 2 names after I had to look it up. I think one is arguably and sadly the most successful QB to come out of Ohio State at least since 1980. I believe the other had multiple stints as the Packers’ No. 3 QB.

I know he's been out a couple weeks, but I really hope the Malik Taylor who was getting open fairly regularly against the opponents' No. 1s in the preseason shows up tonight.

Gute's 2019 draft is pretty impressive despite not having a ton of picks....Gary, Savage, jenkins are a pretty solid 1st 3 picks I still see some angst around Gary on here and I don't really get it...as he's figured out how to play OLB in this system he has become really solid against both the run and pass. The angst is just the fact that as of now, every 1st round DT/DE or LB drafted behind Gary, according to profootballreference has provided more value than Gary has. He was the Uber project but legit 4 others at essentially the exact same role were on the board. Making matters worse was how high they must have thought on Savage. The fact you didn't find a trade partner to move down is why Gary was a bad pick. He's at least starting to live up to that value drafted but as mentioned above, the immediate impact should have been there at 12 not a project who becomes expensive around the time he lives up to #12. Montez Sweat is a better player drafted last of those 4 clone types after Gary. Hundreds in trade value opportunity missed. The profootballreference value stuff might have some value 10 years out, but after three years, outside of a few elite guys it seems to be mostly just playing time, whether the player was any good or not. Basically if I remember correctly, you had three defenders on the board with top 10 talent each with a different red flag that led to them being available: health (Sweat), rawness (Gary) and injury (Simmons). It actually looks like all three are going to turn out, which is pretty remarkable given draft percentages, and the Packers took the one they were likely most comfortable with. Also, outside of Sweat and Burns (who didn't fit the defense at the time as a pure speed rusher), who are the other two you're talking about? I can't remember any other pass rushers on the board who were talked about going anywhere near 12. Also, there are precious few cases where you you can trade down and be sure you're still going to get your guy, and Gary (or Savage if that was the pick you were talking about) wasn't among those.

Kelly is not taking part in AFL Hadn't seen that note. Wonder if he will be replaced.