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CheeseheadInQC

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Everything posted by CheeseheadInQC

  1. CheeseheadInQC
    It all depends on situation, though, doesn't it? If the top couple tiers of hitters are gone (No Ford, Cowser, McClain, etc.) and the team has the next tier of players being pretty broad, an underslot deal could yield more collective upside in the draft.
  2. CheeseheadInQC
    If college pitching drops like some have suggested, might Ty Madden be the guy who is unexpectedly still on the board?
  3. CheeseheadInQC
    If you want to make the case that Wicks is the most likely pick, fine. There is a case to be made for it, especially if you are like me and are skeptical Ford lasts until 15. But if someone offers you any player vs the field, take the field. If someone offered you any three guesses vs. the field, I might take the field. I am not sure I have seen a compelling reason to say any player has a better than 15-20% chance of getting picked by the Brewers.
  4. CheeseheadInQC
    Also, congrats to Jesus Chirinos on having already doubled his career home run total just three games into the season. Seems like he has been in the system for awhile, but still just 19.
  5. CheeseheadInQC
    Really good pitching performances last night by the Rattlers against a team that has given their pitchers some fits this year (I swear it seems like half the runs Reese Olson has given up came against QC). Luna obviously still has a sub-1.00 ERA. Chirino has been throwing well, and Reifert seems to be settling in after a rough start at Wisconsin. The walks are trending down while the strikeouts stay high. As for the opponents, I am guessing the Royals weren’t expecting Lacy to be this erratic.
  6. CheeseheadInQC
    If the Brewers consider Luna to have any big league potential at all they need to get him up to AA to see how he fares. They've got a decision to make on him this offseason and simply getting guys out at high-A isn't probably going to give them enough data to make it.
  7. CheeseheadInQC
    If they had more electric stuff back when they were in college, how come they lasted until the 4th round? The answer is that they didn't have more electric stuff - some good pro pitching coaches made some adjustments with them that made their stuff more electric. My post was in response to a comment that Wicks didn't have upside; my analogy was that Burnes and Bieber weren't thought to have much upside coming out of college, and that some adjustments and development brought out that upside. If Wicks didn't have some upside, he'd be talked about as a 4th round pick. To be fair, you do have guys like Woodruff, who are touted as upside college arms but fall because the college results don't match the stuff.
  8. CheeseheadInQC
    1. I notice you didn’t mention Small because no one projected that. 2. If you look back at the thread for the Hiura draft, in the weeks leading up to the draft, there was more Adell and Beck than Hiura and a few others received more prominent mention as well. 3. I seem to remember a lot of Ray, Puk and Perez. The higher the draft pick, the easier it is to predict. 4. The Medeiros draft I believe a few places included the rumored deal the Brewers had with him in their last update, but not this far out and it was always explicitly mentioned to be a rumored deal which none of the Wicks projections have been.
  9. CheeseheadInQC
    Still second round, not first, but I remember a lot of low-ceiling complaints about Jimmy Nelson and he was proving anything but before the shoulder injury. As far as Wicks goes, I think the reason he keeps getting mocked to the Brewers is two-fold. First, the Small similarities mentioned earlier, and second, the fact that pretty much anyone can see that the Brewers are lacking in pitching depth, especially at the lower levels. Hopefully getting a lot of the guys back from injury next year would help, but you could tell me that they were going to use 16 of their 20 picks on pitchers and as long as the value was solid I wouldn't be opposed. At the same time, a lot of the services have him in the 12-20 range in their rankings, so he makes sense rankings wise. Even the Fangraphs one made it seem like they thought the Brewers would take a college pitcher and Wicks was the top one left on their board with Hoglund and Madden having come off the board in the two prior picks, even adding that they figured they'd go Hoglund if he was still available.
  10. CheeseheadInQC
    Hopefully they can either get something out of Gustave or have finally become convinced (and are correct) that Barker is a legitimate prospect because it kind of felt like they traded both Richards and the guy most likely to take his place.
  11. CheeseheadInQC
    Nice debut from Vargas thus far.
  12. CheeseheadInQC
    I believe Kirby would have been a minor league free agent at year’s end. If they didn’t see him earning a 40-man spot, they would have lost him at year end anyway.
  13. CheeseheadInQC
    Interesting list, especially how high he is on Olson. Still felt weird having a list that goes that deep and not seeing guys like Cousins or Sanchez who aren't exactly looking overmatched in the big leagues right now.
  14. CheeseheadInQC
    I'd almost toss out last year as an anomaly in some regards (at least in the HS vs. College side of things) given that the team would have had much less of a track record to go by for prep players than normal. With the exception of the Small pick (and I'm guessing the similar profile might be sparking a lot of the Wicks predictions), the Brewers seem to be value chasers, especially among position players. Either the dropping guy (Mitchell, Turang), the guy who is going a lot lower than he would have a season ago (Turang, Gray, Cantrelle), the injured guy (Rasmussen, Hamilton, Zamora), the Can-he-play-catcher? guy (Warren, Dillard, Fry, Harrison).
  15. CheeseheadInQC
    That is what happens on this board though. Years ago I pitched a trade around Scooter Gennett et al. for Hunter Renfroe and was scalded for not giving enough in return for our lefty hitting scrub 2B. Overvaluing of our own guys (AKelly and his shoulder) and belittling others' is the default here. Another thing is the on going love affair with former Brewers or those that once stopped at a Culvers. I don't get it. It seems like saying Moran would be an upgrade if Hiura returns to his early season form while simultaneously being a non-tender candidate is more a comment on how bad the Brewers’ first base situation would be in that scenario than some attempt to justify a cheap trade. Slightly over replacement level first basemen haven’t been getting paid.
  16. CheeseheadInQC
    I can't remember when Bello was expected back, but if it is soon, that would be another possibility, as similarly would Pablo Abreu.
  17. CheeseheadInQC
    OK, I was going off of both the left field thing (no real reason to keep him in left if he has a good, and I guess accurate, arm) and an old fangraphs system rundown from early in his career that said he was unlikely to stick behind the plate because of his arm.
  18. CheeseheadInQC
    It seems like the Brewers have been treating Hummel like a two-tool player. Even so, though, if they think the bat will play he could be a less expensive filler for Vogelbach’s spot next season. Curious if, with Hiura back in Milwaukee, they try him at first to expand his versatility at positions where arm strength isn’t an issue.
  19. CheeseheadInQC
    Will be interesting to see the rosters when they come out in a few days. Still feels like they need 3-4 more catchers and 10 more pitchers.
  20. CheeseheadInQC
    I think you kind of answered your own question to some degree. The value you are going to get for him post-injury is small enough where you might as well let it ride given the upside if he does get all the way back.
  21. CheeseheadInQC
    Moustakas had four individual seasons with more fWAR than Moran has in his career when the Brewers re-signed him. The fact is, the market for first basemen of Moran’s value this past offseason puts him squarely in coin flip territory as far as getting tendered this coming offseason, kind of negating the added value of his years of control, and if the Pirates already have decided not to tender him at the deadline, it is basically best offer.
  22. CheeseheadInQC
    Just because a team unwisely overpaid someone for production doesn't mean that other teams also need to do so for an unrelated player.... Says you. Look around the league it's not 2004 any more. Any type of every day starting player in the major leagues in making 7-10 million. Heck, Moustakas got 14 million from the Brewers for 2019. It's the reality, if a team is looking to sign players for their starting lineup for less, they're shopping in the bargain bin of older veterans, players coming off major injuries, etc. Thus, the fact Moran is making 2.8 million for the Pirates and has two more passes through arbitration makes him incredibly valuable. If Moran was a free agent right now he'd be looking for 4 times as much or more per year. Among first basemen, only Carlos Santana got more than $3.5 million this past offseason. C.J. Cron, for example, got $1 million. Unless you still think Moran is a third baseman, people just aren't paying for marginal first basemen. If he has a second half of the season the same as the first you could argue he'd be a borderline non-tender candidate.
  23. CheeseheadInQC
    I doubt that Kelly gets dealt. His value is too tough to figure. The way the Brewers were talking about him at the alternate site, it sounded like he might have passed Small and Ashby, but the other teams didn’t get to see that, and then the injury … The return simply isn’t going to be enough to justify giving him up. Maybe I am wrong, but I doubt then Brewers give up but I doubt the Brewers would be willing to give up any of their top 10 for any of those guys.
  24. CheeseheadInQC
    Given his situation with him presumably being a free agent at year's end, if they think he has any chance of being a big league contributor, he probably should be in AA by the all-star break. Bullock has also been really impressive. Since his promotion his strikeout to walk rate is 21:1.
  25. CheeseheadInQC
    Jorge Lopez was the first, although he was a draft pick out of Puerto Rico. Miguel Diaz made it to the majors, just not with Milwaukee. Some made it really close before topping out at Triple-A, like Angel Ventura. If you want to get really technical, Orlando Arcia pitched in the majors. I completely forgot about Lopez’s stint there after struggling in Arizona.
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