CheeseheadInQC

Crazy stat: heading into tonight’s games, only Walther had a wRC+ less than 100 among hitters with at least 10 at bats for the Mudcats.

Nice to see Hernandez settle back in after the rocky fourth. He has just been flat out solid this year considering he is the second youngest pitcher in A ball.

In part one of this examination of the international free agent market, we explored what constitutes reasonably average and above-average success. A big question remains, though: how do you achieve that success? Let's examine two standbys that people often suggest: money and age. Strategy 1: Throw Money at the Problem As time has gone on, excluding the occasional phenom from Asia, an increasingly large percentage of the top international bonuses seem to be going to hitters. So, the argument goes, the way to succeed is to simply spend a larger percentage of the international bonus pool on pitching. The question is, does it work? The answer: Maybe … kind of … occasionally a little bit. All Bonus Levels Have Seen Success Let's look at the same group as last time, those pitchers who debuted during the 2014-2016 seasons. Here is how those who totaled at least 1 fWAR through the 2024 season broke down by bonus (information mostly from Spotrac). table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; text-align:center; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; text-align:center; border: 1px solid #CCC; padding: 4px; margin: 3px; } WAR Bonus $300,000+ $299,999-100,000 $99,999-$50,000 <$50,000 5+ 0 3 1 2 3-4.9 1 2 1 1 2-2.9 1 1 3 0 1-1.9 2 3 2 2 Here are the results by player. Player WAR Bonus Sandy Alcantara 16.5 $125K Framber Valdez 16.4 $10K Emmanuel Clase 8.9 $125K Cristian Javier 6.7 $10K Cristopher Sanchez 6.6 $65K Dinelson Lamet 5.6 $100K Andres Munoz 4.1 $700K Bryan Abreu 3.9 $40K Jhoan Duran 3.8 $65K Camilo Doval 3.5 $100K Brusdar Graterol 3.2 $150K Diego Castillo 2.8 $64K Luis Gil 2.7 $90K Johan Oviedo 2.6 $1.9M Javier Assad 2.2 $150K Jose Soriano 2.1 $70K Edward Cabrera 1.7 $100K Edwin Uceta 1.7 $10K Ronel Blanco 1.7 $5K Jose Saurez 1.6 $300K Dennis Santana 1.5 $170K Jaime Barria 1.4 $60K Huascar Ynoa 1.2 $800K Gregory Santos 1.2 $275K Pedro Avila 1 $50K Oviedo was the least expensive (and among the youngest) of a group of seven Cuban pitchers who got bonuses over $1 million dollars in the 2016-17 signing period. While several of the others reached the big leagues in an up-down reliever role, the other notable name was current San Diego bullpen regular Adrian Morejon, who signed with the Padres for a whopping $11 million (it was a different time). Most of the others were more conventional — and lower bonus if Spotrac is correct. So what can we glean from this data? Well, there were a fair number of success stories from the sub-$50K group, but at the same time, a lot more pitchers sign for lower numbers overall. So money definitely did help, but it wasn't some sort of panacea. And if you did a good job scouting/developing, you can find gems for smaller bonuses. Ask the Astros, who signed a number of pitchers who didn't make a significant impact for more than the combined total of Valdez, Javier, Abreu and Blanco. Where Money Didn't Work Looking beyond those three seasons, though, you can see where the big bonuses for pitching might not always be the best use of bonus pool space. Spotrac lists 35 international pitchers (not counting Shohei Ohtani, because saying "we should sign Shohei Ohtani" took even less baseball scouting acumen than I have) signing for $300,000 or more during the 2017-18 period and 31 doing so during the 2018-19 period. Want to know what those 66 players have amounted to thus far? 4 Big Leaguers 0 MLB games started 204 innings (164 by one player) 1.9 WAR (2 WAR from one player) And the player that accounted for most of those totals? Orioles bullpen mainstay Yennier Cano, who the Twins signed at age 25 out of Cuba, so not exactly your typical 16-19 year old signing. To be fair, the early results from the post-pandemic classes look a little better, although some of that is the Padres. Say what you will about the all-or-nothing strategy they take vs. spreading the bonus pool money around, but unlike some other teams, when they've swung big lately they have rarely completely missed. Conclusions Throwing a bunch of money at a couple of pitching prospects doesn't seem like a winning strategy based upon the evidence. That being said, neither does hoping your next group of $10,000 pickups magically becomes the Astros class that produced their pair of starters. Being willing to occasionally go into the high five and low six figure range seems like the sweet spot of combining quantity with quality while not ignoring the hitting side of things, where the top players are usually more expensive. Strategy No. 2: Sign Older Pitchers Much like handing out bigger bonuses, the logic here is pretty straightforward. The older a pitcher is, the more developed both body-wise and stuff-wise he will be. This makes evaluation easier, for obvious reasons. So, did it work in practice? Let's go to the chart and compare the age when they first appeared in a game to the highest level each player reached in 2014-2016: Age at time of debut 16-17 18-19 20+ MLB 38 (9.11%) 39 (6.61%) 14 (5.47%) AAA 22 (5.28%) 31 (5.25%) 10 (3.91%) AA 25 (6.00%) 27 (4.58%) 10 (3.91%) A+ 42 (10.07%) 31 (5.25%) 13 (5.08%) A 35 (8.39%) 40 (6.78%) 17 (6.64%) R 255 (61.15%) 422 (71.53%) 192 (75.00%) Total 417 590 256 Doesn't exactly bear things out, huh? The younger pitchers were by far the least likely to flame out in rookie ball and the most likely to reach the big leagues. So the answer is to sign all 16-17 year olds, right? Well, the truth is a bit more nuanced. Several very good players were in the 20+ group, including the Astros with Valdez and Blanco. The 18-19 year old group also seemed to be the sweet spot for a lot of the top starters. Conclusions Still, though, the wait until they are older strategy doesn't appear to work out the way it should. Why? Well, let's turn to game theory for a second. Remember the old prisoner's dilemma? The crux of the problem is that you have two prisoners being interrogated. If both confess, they get one sentence, let's say 10 years each. If one confesses and testifies against the one who didn't, let's say the one who confesses gets 1 year and the one who doesn't gets 20. If neither confesses, they get them on a lesser charge for 3 years each. Basically, while the lowest combined sentence would happen if neither confessed, no matter what the other one does, it is in each's best interest to confess. So what does this have to do with baseball? The most efficient market for all teams would involve waiting until the pitchers were in their 20s. Because you can tell enough about a pitcher by 16-18 to pick out some of the top talents, there is an advantage for any team that does that, because so long as one team does, the talent pool for the rest has been diluted. I will admit the analogy is stretched a bit. The theory doesn't map 100%. Still, though, the point remains, so long as any team is willing to take the risk to sign younger pitchers, they are going to have an advantage over teams that dogmatically wait to sign pitchers. And even if every other team waits, that just creates an opportunity for the one who doesn't. That's not to say dogmatically only signing younger pitchers is the answer either. Basically, what it seems to be saying is scout all ages, sign all ages. There are inefficiencies to be sure, but they aren't really the kind that you can take advantage of the way that it seems as though you should. So What's Left? It might be, other than signing a lot like was mentioned in part one, there is no one perfect method of succeeding in the international market. You just have to out-scout, out-sign and out-develop the other teams. So how are the Brewers doing? More on that in part 3. View full article

I haven't calculated everything, but given the raw numbers, there is a chance this pitching staff is top three in the league in both strikeout and walk rate (and after last night Dorchies is tops among ACL qualifiers in FIP).

Would have saved me some time 🙂

It is amazing that the youngest lineup is also the best so far. Even before tonight’s double-digit output, the offense led the ACL in batting average, OBP, slugging and, by more than .100, OPS.

I know outside of the two extra base hits it was an ACL special, but dang that is a nice way to start things in Arizona. 7-0

I’ve been waiting for Baseball Reference to acknowledge the start of the Complex League season to get average ages, but for now 41 pitchers in their age 18 or younger season have logged innings in one of the Complex Leagues. Five are Brewers, including 4/17 to log at least 4 innings. 84 hitters in their age 18 or younger season have tallied 10 plate appearances. Nine are Brewers.

Yeager probably gets the first shot at the AAA bullpen, but if Stiven Cruz keeps stacking scoreless outings, he’ll be in the conversation as well.

I don’t even know if you can blame the 2023 class for the pitching woes last season. Yanez undoubtedly struggled, and Prado got hit around a bit, but Hernandez, Flores and Cortez all posted + K/BB rates. Overall the youngsters were probably slightly better than average for their age, it was the 20+ crew that was the biggest culprit. Jackson, Valerio, Mogollon and Vire all struggled massively to find the strike zone at times. Hopefully the early results are a sign that they can avoid the control related blowups this season. I am still leery about Yanez, but Meneses seems improved thus far. King struggled a bit in his first outing, but if he has difficulty I think he is more likely to be Prado than Yanez. It is too soon to tell on Carra and Espinal, but I am encouraged overall.

If my math is correct, the ACL Brewers pitchers, not including rehabbers, have a 55:15 strikeout to walk ratio.

As much fun as the Mudcats are, you could make a case that the strides taken by the pitchers who ended last year in Nashville (Misiorowski, Patrick, Henderson, Rodriguez) is the biggest story of the Brewers prospects this season. Staying on pitching, it will interesting if they stick with a somewhat conventional rotation of Mercado, Dubanewicz, Dorchies, Mercedes and Renz or if some of the others like King or Carra mix in as the season goes on.

Mercedes definitely didn’t disappoint. Hopefully this is a sign he is one to watch.

I am interested to see how Mercedes’ start goes. Him being brought over for spring training seemed to come out of nowhere since he barely pitched last year.

I don’t know if the process is repeatable at higher levels, but by day’s end he might be the Southern League’s second most valuable hitter this season.

Ortuno! First inning grand slam!

I imagine the answer might be one of the rehab pitchers, but otherwise it will be interesting to see who gets the opening day nod. One of the prep picks? Mercado or King? Someone out of left field like Mercedes?

As for the injured players, I can't speak for others, but I generally just leave them at the same tier unless it is an injury that typically affects performance once the players come back. With Lara, we've been spoiled with how fast other prospects have moved up successfully lately. Very few prospects from his signing class have reached AA, and outside of BABIP, his numbers are pretty much in line with someone like Nelson Rada of the Angels. For me the surprise was Bishop Letson not being higher. He was comfortably in the top 9 for me with a clear tier break beneath him and Gasser. After them, 10 through about 30 were fairly tightly bunched.

Jesus MadeJacob MisiorowskiCooper PrattLuis PenaJeferson QueroBraylon PayneLogan HendersonBishop LetsonRobert GasserMike BoeveTyler BlackBryce MeccageJosh KnothCraig YohoCaleb DurbinLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiCarlos F RodriguezEric BitontiErnesto Martinez Areinamo, Patrick, Wichrowski, Wilken and M. Rodriguez just missed and are on the same tier as 16-20. As much as I am looking forward to Anderson , Ortuno, Corobo and Encarnacion getting going in the ACL and Fenelon and Antunez debuting in the DSL, it is tough for me to have them crack the top 25 right now. I considered Dinges as well, but the likelihood of sticking behind the plate would have to go from possible to probable or he'd have to display this offensive aptitude at a higher level before I would have him crack this group. If the Brewers weren't still having Luiyin Alastre hitting behind Walling in the Mudcats order, I might have snuck him at least higher on the also-ran list.

Jesus MadeJacob MisiorowskiCooper PrattLuis PenaJeferson QueroBraylon PayneLogan HendersonBishop LetsonRobert GasserMike BoeveTyler BlackBryce MeccageJosh KnothCraig YohoCaleb DurbinLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiCarlos F RodriguezEric BitontiErnesto Martinez Areinamo, Patrick, Wichrowski, Wilken and M. Rodriguez just missed and are on the same tier as 16-20. As much as I am looking forward to Anderson , Ortuno, Corobo and Encarnacion getting going in the ACL and Fenelon and Antunez debuting in the DSL, it is tough for me to have them crack the top 25 right now. I considered Dinges as well, but the likelihood of sticking behind the plate would have to go from possible to probable or he'd have to display this offensive aptitude at a higher level before I would have him crack this group. If the Brewers weren't still having Luiyin Alastre hitting behind Walling in the Mudcats order, I might have snuck him at least higher on the also-ran list.

That’s how you get the 11th highest wRC+ in the league while hitting well below the Mendoza line.

Yah, but I wonder how it would compare to the draft if you looked by bonus rather than overall. For instance. the Brewers signed Manuel Rodriguez, Anthony Flores, Bryan Rivera, Wande Torres and Yorman Galindez in 2022 for less combined than Nate Peterson's bonus from the same year's draft. I couldn't find Daniel Corniel's bonus information, but there is a decent chance that you could add him to the aforementioned quintet without breaking $200,000 total. In all, the 17 pitchers whose bonus information I could find for that class from the Brewers signed for more than $60,000 less than Matt Wood got that year.

With the releases of Barrios and Gomez, it is clear that most of this roster is going to be from last season's DSL squads. On the offensive side, all that is left from last season is Pedro Ibarguen, Luis Lameda and Gery Holguin (Maybe Eric Martinez if he shifts back in time for the opener). Between them and Jayden Fielder, that probably leaves 11-12 spots for hitters from last year's DSL squads. We already know Luis Corobo, Handelfry Encarnacion, Jorge Quintana, Juan Ortuno, Jose Anderson, and Kevin Garcia. That leaves 4-5 spots for guys like Frandy Lafond, Moises Polanco, Kevin Ereu, Roderick Flores, Freider Rojas, Frederi Montero, Pedro Tovar, Yoneiker Lugo, Engel Paulino and Jonathan Rangel.

Alastre and Di Turi have kind of quietly been among the top 10 performers from their IFA class so far this season.