CheeseheadInQC

One of the interesting things is the sheer number of at least moderately intriguing pitchers who didn't make the list. The fact that it would be easy to see a scenario where Pennington (if healthy), Brown, Herrera, Kirby, Jankins or Webb make the midseason version should make the staffs, especially AAA through A+, fun to follow.

On the older side, but this week's episode of "Brooklyn 99" inspired me to go back and watch the "Homicide" episode "3 Men and Adena." That show was, for the first few seasons at least, one of the best I've ever seen, and it was also fun to watch Andre Braugher go back and do what was basically a comedic version of perhaps its best episode on "99."

Between injuries and aggressive promotions, it seems as if the Wisconsin rotation would be a good place to look for sleepers, if only because of the opportunity. I could see Bowden Francis putting together a season like Webb had last year where some early struggles give way to a strong second half.

I will say, after a frustrating night at work, that is the way to send me home happy. And after waiting all night for the Cubs game to end, the Brewers making the comeback decisive was doubly appreciated.

I believe one of the interviews said the lineups starting today would be closer to the actual ones. If that's the case, they are using the more aggressive of the two possible placements for Nottingham (AAA), Ray (AA), Grisham (AA) and Z. Brown (AA).

Nice to see a few names that I don't remember seeing previously among the blog posts and lineups from the past few days (namely Feliciano, Herrera and File)

Loving Loyola's run. Glad to see, especially after some declared the Valley irrelevant after Wichita State's defection.

Am I forgetting someone, or are they down to 27 possibilities for the opening day roster? I could see Woodruff getting sent down until they need a fifth starter and Choi being the hitter sent down.

The two radio interviews have me really confused about the Wisconsin roster. I figured the Rattlers would be returning four or five position players from last year's squad max (Hairston, Lara, Orimoloye, Clark and maybe Gideon or Segovia for the final bench spot), but Erickson said six or seven. On the pitching side, Cline seemed to indicate that it would be entirely new from last year, which was equally surprising. I was expecting going into the season for the Wisconsin rotation to be anchored by Webb, Herrera, Kirby, Pennington and Rose. It sounds as if Pennington is definitely starting in extended spring, Herrera and Rose also haven't appeared on any of the lineups I've seen (although maybe I missed them, and they've been less thorough with the pitchers), and if the staff is going to be all new to start, Webb might be ticketed for Carolina. The guys who would be new who have either started or have been listed in the descriptive tweets as going as least three innings: Kirby, Bettinger, De La Cruz, Rubick, Francis, Hernandez and Taugner. 1) Not exactly the Rattlers rotation I was expecting (although there could be other guys who have been going more innings in relief and would slot in) and 2) I'd guess from that group Kirby and Francis would be the guys on a pitch count in the tandems.

The Braden Webb post in the voting thread reminded me that I was going to move him into my top 25 after noticing something similar earlier. He's my pick to post a dominant first couple of months at Wisconsin the same way that Perrin and Supak did the last two years. Hopefully if he does he won't suffer the same Carolina letdown Supak did after getting promoted. Also, there is no way that I'm putting him in the top 25 after the walk rate he posted last year, but one longshot breakout pick might be Conor Harber. I figured he might be fighting for a roster spot after last season, but he's been getting starting nods on the spring lineups thus far. If that means he is still being looked at as a starter, the Brewers must see something there stuff-wise. He was one of the best performers on that absolutely stacked Wisconsin pitching staff in 2016 (his numbers were actually better than Yamamoto's and not that different from Freddy Peralta's).

Basically, if a guy is routinely playing three levels higher than where he finished last year, it is a good sign that he is probably ticketed for one of the rookie league squads and is just filling a hole in the lineup caused by someone being in big league camp (see Thomas, Sibrian, Coca, Martinez, Lujano and likely Carmona, although the fact he had been with the Wisconsin squad the two previous days at least gives me a little pause).

Maybe it is because I was at the game where the River Bandits took all of their frustrations over being made to look absolutely foolish by Adrian Houser out on Owenby, but I'm not sure what to make of his 2017. He undoubtedly proved two things: 1. the injury was no longer an issue and 2. his 2016 wasn't a fluke. But the problem is, he shouldn't have been in Wisconsin, and if it weren't for the injury, he wouldn't have been. And there's the thing, if you had put Owenby's stat line in his first full season up and asked how that pitcher would do in a second go-around in the Midwest League, you probably would have gotten guesses of a slightly lower ERA and slightly lower strikeout rate (maybe 10.0), but otherwise the same. And it's not like we haven't recently seen guys put up some absurd numbers the second time around in Wisconsin: Jon Perrin had a 47:1 strikeout to walk ratio (still one of my favorite minor league stat lines) and Trey Supak posted even better stats than Owenby across the board (including a .76 WHIP) before seeing his K/9 rate slashed from 11.6 to 7.1 after getting promoted to Carolina. That being said, he also probably didn't get the recognition he deserved for his solid first go-around. I think his route might be the bullpen though, and it wouldn't shock me, depending on if any relievers get held back in Biloxi to avoid CS, if he skips Carolina and battles QTC, Kuntz and possibly Ramirez if the spring lineups are any indication for the title of best lefty in the AA bullpen, where he'd probably be ticketed for anyway if he hadn't gotten hurt.

I think you're going to see a fair amount of bumping guys down. There's a decent chance that the only AAA opening day starter currently in minor league camp is Dubon. Broxton, Phillips and Wren could open in Colorado Springs. That could bump Coulter, Taylor and Davis to AA, and Grisham and Ray to A+ and Orimoloye to A. Franklin and Orf could bump Allemand and Noriega to AA. Hiura could bump Hairston to A. I am only seeing three position players who didn't either play on the major league side yesterday or in one of the lineups the last two days, Mario Feliciano, Nathan Rodriguez and Javier Betancourt, and given that catchers seem to get shuffled to the big league side often, the former two might just be that.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the fifth spot in the A+ rotation assuming Medeiros is bumped to AA. Do Owenby or Roegner start (I'd figured both would be looked at out of the bullpen, with Owenby potentially getting a bump all the way to the AA pen depending on the numbers)? Does Webb start the season in Carolina?

1. Brandon Woodruff: Top three are pretty interchangeable to my mind, but I'll stick with Woodruff here. 2. Keston Hiura: Here's hoping the glove doesn't slow the bat 3. Corbin Burnes: Another season of that caliber, and he'll either be on top of this list or off it from having exhausted his rookie eligibility. 4. Luis Ortiz: I'll buy the working on his changeup excuse, for now. 5. Freddy Peralta: Man that strikeout rate is impressive. 6. Brett Phillips: Blocked, but when he gets his chance needs to prove that the hit tool will play, because everything else looks good. 7. Tristen Lutz: Great start, but has to shine above rookie ball to be any higher than this. 8. Lucas Erceg: Strong finish. Might take a little longer than it looked in spring training last year, though. 9. Trent Grisham: Would be higher if he was better in center. Could be rookie year Aoki type eventually 10. Corey Ray: Tools shouldn't be ignored, but few college draft picks have those types of struggles and make a significant big league impact. 11. Mauricio Dubon: Kind of the between tier guy. Too little upside for the top tier, higher floor than the non-relievers below him. 12. Zack Brown: I fully realize that this will likely be his highest ranking, possibly by a great deal, but I think he's the most likely Wisconsin or Carolina pitcher to break through this year. I know, small sample size, but for a guy who's been given some control red flags, the 23:2 strikeout to walk ratio to close the year in Carolina is pretty impressive. 13. Mario Feliciano: Might take a few years, but my favorite of the catching prospects 14. Taylor Williams: I'm slowly learning to value relievers more 15. Adrian Houser: A step behind Williams, but I think he can be a strong bullpen piece. 16. Marcos Diplan: Has to bounce back 17. Kodi Medeiros: The news he's almost certainly ticketed for AA bumps him up a couple of spots. 18. Cody Ponce: Solid, but still feels vaguely underwhelming 19. Jacob Nottingham: Hopefully last season's progress continues (and the stats start matching the peripheral progress) 20. Jake Gatewood: He got the improvement that was needed to stay on the radar, but more is needed 21. Troy Stokes Jr.: Still somewhat skeptical, but the performance has been there 22. Trey Supak: The scouting reports saying the raw power stuff never really developed are a bit disconcerting 23. Braden Webb: A real nice finish last year for a guy who had less experience coming in than your typical college arm 24. Carlos Herrera: If he continues to progress, that Lind trade could look even better 25. Jon Perrin: At some point, results matter, and all Perrin has done is put together results 26. Phil Bickford: The longer the offseason goes, the more the negative reports from instructs convince me to drop him 27. Josh Pennington: Might move him back in if his name shows up in a spring box score, but the injuries are becoming a concern 28. Bubba Derby 29. Caden Lemons 30. Jorge Lopez

Vassalotti was an addition to the one posted yesterday.

I tried this when the spring roster came out and got much of the same thing, but with some differences. Here are a few, many of which are pretty minor -- I think Cooper Hummel will start the year on an active roster. He had a strong showing in his time at Carolina and actually made a few prospect lists (albeit at the tail end of them). -- Staying at catcher, I actually think Henry stays in Helena simply because of a numbers situation. I don't know that they push Feliciano up to Carolina before he's ready simply because it is most convenient, and I'm not convinced after last year that they think he's ready. -- I've got Berry sticking and Coulter and Grisham pushed down a level, although I could easily see it coming out your way. -- Given the fact both of them struggled last year but Hairston is considered the better prospect I think he'll fill one of the starting infield spots at Wisconsin with Morrison getting the "well someone needs to be there" spot as the backup shortstop in Carolina. -- Pitching, I could see Burnes in AAA and Houser in the AAA bullpen, but with Colorado Springs, those are so tough to predict. -- If healthy, I've got Gainey and Spurlin at AA over Barker and Olczak, but who knows what their situation is. I'm still stubbornly holding out hope that Gainey can stay healthy and turn into a bullpen arm. -- Bold calls on Ortiz and Kenilvort.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I was making a joke about it being a curse for the following season (should have probably put something in blue). In a larger sense, though, the spring hype has a tendency to make it seem like these guys are knocking on the major league doorstep, but in a couple of these cases, that wasn't true (we'll never really know how fast Williams could have moved). Haniger lived up to the hype, but it took him a few years in the upper levels of the minors and a couple different teams to do it, and while I am still high on Erceg, the statement that he made AAA last year should come with an asterisk given the circumstances. Basically, these spring successes can offer a tantalizing glimpse of what a player could be but, especially for guys who have seen little time above high-A, should probably be taken with a grain of salt when analyzing what the player is now.

And Wren looks like Ted Williams. I'm excited about Hiura too, but we really REALLY need to put ST performance in context, especially extremely small sample sizes. After three of the most recent prospects to get really hyped in spring training either underwhelmed (Erceg, Haniger) or got injured (Williams) that season, perhaps that is for the best.

I will say that unless there is corroborating evidence on some of the dinners, I don't see how those will lead to anything as I'd imagine even if they split the check the agent or agency employee would expense his or her half. Now those "loans" on the other hand ... Unless someone from the school is found to have played a role in facilitating the payments, I doubt this latest round of info takes down any coaches either. The bigger scandal would be if more info linking schools, shoe companies and payments to recruits comes out. That has a chance to cause a legitimate shakeup. This current batch of documents just seems like a minor ripple compared to the tidal wave that has been hinted at.

I might not have him that high, but I think it is understandable. Once you get past Peralta, the pitching prospects kind of level out. You could make a case that going off of just a combination of talent and how advanced he is, Houser is the next guy. Circumstances knock him down because of the option situation. He'd probably have to pass at least three of the guys ahead of him to get a starting shot out of spring training in 2019 and thus is probably going to end up in the bullpen. It does seem as if he under other circumstances would have had a better chance of sticking as a starter than Williams or Lopez.

Isn't a big part of the question with Aguilar where did the regular platoon splits come from? His numbers against righties aren't all that surprising given his AAA numbers and the fact that the International League is tougher to hit in, but he was a reverse platoon split guy the last couple of years in the minors. If the improvements against lefties are from some sort of repeatable adjustment, his regression might not be as big as you're predicting.

Maybe this has been covered elsewhere, but have the Brewers stated that it is actually an organizational strategy to target almost solely hitters with their bigger international bonuses, or is that just how it has seemed to work out the last few years?

This could also be a sign that we're going to see more of the starting prospects staying in Biloxi rather than exposing the to CS but still wanted decent pitchers just to make their record more attractive when seeking a new affiliate.

As weird as this sounds given the logjam with the major league roster, the Brewers just needed to sign an outfielder and might still need one or two. Unless I'm missing someone, before this signing I only counted a max of 11 outfielders total between AAA and A+, and that is assuming Phillips starts the season in AAA and the Brewers promote two guys who each posted a sub-.600 OPS at Wisconsin.