CheeseheadInQC

I know that his numbers aren't quite as gaudy as some on the list, but I'd toss Demi Orimoloye into the surging category. After last season, I was afraid that his line would be closer to what Lara is putting up. Instead, he is leading off and his OPS just topped .800. That is definitely boding well.

I don't foresee a huge go for it trade, but if they are still in it at the deadline I could see a minor deal, maybe for Craig Breslow if the Twins fall off the pace or someone similar. Something like that shouldn't cost any of their top prospects, maybe just one or two of the guys the Brewers wouldn't have room for on the 40-man.

Cooper would make more sense if Aguilar wasn't already on the roster (the fact that he is the one player hitting better away from Colorado Springs is also intriguing). Unless they really want a lefty, I think Cordell makes the most sense. You could make a good case he's been the best of the three 40-man OF at CS. Also, given his age I don't think they'd be as concerned about service time issues as with Brinson, and Phillips' K rate could make them leery about promoting him.

I feel like that is going to be a pretty crowded group vying for that award. Just a hunch, but I would predict the catcher holding his own in the Midwest league at 18 years old is probably going to get that award. Honestly he has been insanely incredible considering his stats, age, and the fact he is a catcher. If his stats are even close to what they are now he probably ends up in the Top 15. For people already in the Top 25 Orimoloye, Gatewood, and Harrison could be pretty big risers. When I wrote that I'll admit I didn't think Feliciano would be able to keep up that pace for even this long. I still think Supak's in the conversation along with the guys you mentioned, though (as well as possibly Stokes, who just keeps on hitting). A better than 5-1 K/BB ratio and a sub-1 WHIP will play, especially for a guy who supposedly has decent upside. You're right, though, it should be a pretty packed competition.

Given the preseason notices and his performance thus far, I think there's a good chance that Supak ends up being the biggest riser when it comes time for the next list to be done.

There's a chance Thames already has the record. If not he is one game away. Only 20 players have gone at least 6 consecutive games with a home run, and none of them were Brewers.

I think Harber was one of my responses to something like this last year, and he's done nothing to change my mind, especially if he has indeed earned a rotation spot at Carolina. Others: Preston Gainey: My pick to pull a Jacob Barnes and force his way onto the 40-man at year's end. Jose Cuas: While I agree with a lot of the 2016 picks mentioned, there are a couple from the previous draft at Wisconsin who intrigue me. Cuas was fed to the wolves last season, getting pushed up to BC because of a numbers game, and this is one case where a demotion, and the playing time that goes with it, might actually be a signal of confidence in him by the Brewers. Jordan Desguin: Not as much pitching experience as most prospects his age and was successful in an extended stint in Wisconsin last season.

I wonder if they are going to be doing some tandem starting in Carolina. Their website lists Burnes, Medeiros, Ponce, Diplan and Harber as starting the first five games, which would leave Peralta and Yamamoto without rotation spots. Regardless of who starts, however, that is an interesting group of pitchers.

This is getting tougher. When I started breaking things down I tossed names into lists of guys I thought definitely should be in the top 25 and those who I might put in there. I ended up with 28 definites and another 10-12 maybes. 15-28 are really close. 1. Lewis Brinson: 1 vs. 2 is a coin flip 2. Josh Hader: Possibly the Brewers' most important prospect 3. Corey Ray: Close between the next five. I'll trust the draft order for now. 4. Lucas Erceg: Wouldn't shock me if he is No. 1 by the start of next season. 5. Isan Diaz: Just keep hitting. 6. Brandon Woodruff: Spring reports have sounded pretty impressive after last season's breakout. 7. Luis Ortiz: Hoping the peripherals take a jump this year. 8. Trent Clark: Placement in Carolina a big vote of confidence. 9. Marcos Diplan: Probably the best of the next tier of pitching prospects. 10. Phil Bickford: Suspension costs him a couple of spots 11. Cody Ponce: I've got a feeling he bounces back. 12. Mauricio Dubon: Is the power for real? 13. Brett Phillips: More consistent contact would bounce him back into the top 10. 14. Ryan Cordell: Really nice spring. 15. Gilbert Lara: Hopefully proves Wisconsin placement isn't overaggressive. 16. Monte Harrison: Just stay healthy. 17. Jorge Lopez: Hopefully staying out of Colorado Springs helps. 18. Demi Orimoyole: See Lara, Gilbert. 19. Trey Supak: I know basing things off spring reports isn't always the best idea, but if he has started to put it all together the way the comments from camp indicate, this might be too low. 20. Kodi Medeiros: So much potential, but can he harness it? 21. Zack Brown: Woodruff's success might have me overconfident on the latest better stuff than results college pitcher to make a successful transition to pro ball. Outside of Perrin's ridiculous stat line, I think he led the Rattlers in K/BB rate last season. 22. Corbin Burnes: Here's hoping he continues his Wisconsin success at Carolina. 23. Taylor Williams: Interesting that it sounds like they are putting him into the rotation, even if it is as part of a tandem for innings consideration. 24. Freddy Peralta: Temporary spot that could change depending on how the A+ rotation shakes out. 25. Mario Feliciano: Has drawn some impressive notices this spring. Just missed 26. Jacob Nottingham 27. Nathan Kirby 28. Jake Gatewood 29. Conor Harber 30. Jacob Barnes Also, although given that I couldn't find room for Jacob Barnes I definitely couldn't squeeze him in, it wouldn't surprise me if Preston Gainey repeats Barnes' performance from a couple of years ago and forces his way onto the 40-man at year's end.

Well, there are a number of guys who probably were on the projections who might be hurt. (I might have missed them, but I can't say I've seen Pennington or Fox in the minor league box scores. Likewise, Grist and Owenby have been missing among likely Carolina pitchers, which would open spots for others to be promoted.) Plus, another spot may come from starting Kirby in extended spring training to better control his innings, which one of the podcasts said they were leaning toward.

I don't know that I see him having a ton of trade value given that he was cut now and doesn't have the K rate that a lot of teams would be looking for. I'd have rather just gone with Cravy. While it is a small sample size, he has been successful in the big leagues as a reliever. Even in AAA last year, most of his struggles came 1) as a starter and 2) in Colorado Springs (his relief splits: 2.38 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB). I know the scouting reports might not be overwhelming, but at some point if a guy keeps having success, give him a shot to continue it.

Just looking at the lineups from the last week or so and listening to the stuff Mehring is putting together, I'd guess the answers are going to be yes, no, maybe and no. Each team seems like they have 14 position players in the mix right now, with one catcher likely to come down with third-catcher-itis and then one decision to make. For Wisconsin, it seems like Aguilar, Rodriguez, Gideon, Neuhaus, Lara, Cuas, Morrison, Harrison, Segovia and Aguilar as near locks and Oquendo as somewhat likely. I think the last spot is dependent on where they want Orimoloye. If they want him at Wisconsin it is his, if not it is Whalen's.

Yah, the depth is fine. DeJesus, if he is back, is a fringe big league player, Rivera can function as a short-term fill in at least thanks to his defense, and the team seemed to be giving Nate Orf a lot of playing time this spring. None of these guys are likely starters, but for AAA depth they aren't bad. And there is no real need for more than one extra on the 40-man just to have one. I'd rather put off a roster move than make an unnecessary one and lose somebody.

I have still no idea what is going on with the pitchers, but if feels like with the exception of maybe one bench spot, the AAA-A+ rosters are pretty predictable right now. Of the main bubble players, Dubon looks like he's headed to AA instead of AAA and Clark and Gatewood are headed to A+ instead of A. And with Mehring's podcasts making it sound like Lara is a lock for Wisconsin, the biggest bubble hitter looks to be Orimoloye. He's been playing a lot with Wisconsin, but wasn't mentioned in either of the discussions, which pretty much only alluded to Harrison as being a lock for the Rattler outfield.

I've got a feeling that if they trade Peralta I'm going to be underwhelmed. He's anything but a sure thing, but the Brewers have enough minor league depth where the potential benefits of waiting to see if he improves his value outweigh the possibility of getting nothing if he tanks. Unless, of course, the Rangers are willing to pay a premium simply because of the lack of arms on the market, but I've got a feeling that they're bargain hunting. Cutting Garza outright seems more likely to me, although they also could be sitting down with him and gauging whether he'd be as opposed to moving to the pen as he was a couple of years ago (not saying this is a good idea, just a possibility).

If Feliz and Knebel can solidify the back end of the bullpen, admittedly a large if, I think the Brewers will end up with a good bullpen this year. It might not be the one they start with, though. Between injuries, trades and the natural churn of the season, a lot of guys will probably cycle through the last couple of spots. I believe a couple of the Barnes, Jungmann, Blazek, Cravy, Magnifico group will show themselves to be effective pen arms (I might be one of the last Jungmann optimists, but I'm sticking to it). They've got options, including a couple of the NRIs who seem like potential late bloomers. There might be some pain along the way, but I think a good group will stabilize by season's end.

Collymore's release was surprising. Even with Clark looking more and more like he's starting in Carolina, he seemed like he had the best case for the fourth outfield spot there along with Ray and Stokes. I was looking forward to hopefully some of the mid-level guys caught up in the prospect status massacre that was last year's Brevard County season (Collymore, Houle, Rijo, Allemand, Cuas, Derby, Hanhold) having bounce-back years this season. Not happening (at least in the Brewers' organization) for Collymore, and a couple of the infielders look to be decidedly on the roster bubble. Terry's fate was probably sealed when he wasn't promoted at all last season while some of his teammates who put up worse statistics were. It's too bad. Before his injury he was putting up some legitimately intriguing stats.

Depending on when this happened, I wonder if this is related to Michael Reed getting sent to AA. They could have figured that it's better to get one of the AAA guys more at-bats until Taylor's healthy rather than promoting someone who might not be ready for AA just to have a warm body there to go with Coulter, Roache and Davis. While they have an overabundance of pitchers and a smaller surplus of infielders, their outfield talent in the upper minors is definitely more quality than quantity at this point.

With Nottingham, Ray and Harrison in the lineup today, by my count that just leaves Tyrone Taylor among position players and a handful of pitchers (Salas, Grist, Owenby, Pennington, Fox, Chase Williams, along with the known TJ guys) among players who haven't shown up on the minor league lineups yet.

With it sounding like they are going to keep all 6 starters on the roster, it seems like the opening day roster is pretty much set. There are a couple of possible surprises (DeJesus over Gennett, Susac over Bandy, Barnes getting optioned, 13 pitchers), but for the most part, I'd say it is looking like: C: Bandy, Pina IF: Aguilar, Arcia, Gennett, Perez, Shaw, Thames, Villar OF: Braun, Broxton, Nieuwenhuis, Santana SP: Davies, Garza, Guerra, Nelson, Peralta RP: Anderson, Barnes, Feliz, Knebel, Marinez, Milone, Torres I'm not really surprised about Chamberlain. It was a nice idea, but given his track record over the last several seasons (even his good year last year could be argued wasn't more impressive than what Cravy and Scahill did at the end of the year for the Brewers) he was always going to have to force his way onto the team, and that didn't happen.

From what I remember, a lot of guys play a level up at the beginning of these games to account for the guys who are still in big league camp. If you make a composite of all of the games when they break camp and pay most attention to the last week, you could probably predict the levels with 95 percent accuracy, but I'm not sure I'd read much into the first day. For example, all three of the outfielders in Colorado Springs are likely ticketed for Biloxi, which would bump the Biloxi outfielders to Carolina and so forth. Similar things seem to be taking place at several of the infield spots.

If Broxton proves the end of last season isn't a fluke and keeps hitting at a .850+ OPS clip, this might become moot simply because not only would it be difficult to justify trading a top-3 center fielder on a pre-arb deal, but you're also not going to have many teams that can afford to trade for one, especially in a pitching-centric deal. I mean at that point you're talking Giolito+Kopech or Glasnow+Keller given what Eaton fetched this offseason. The teams that have that kind of pitching prospect quality are going to be loath to give it up.

To be fair, his breakout offensively came the previous year with an .840 OPS in the International League, so it's not necessarily all Colorado Springs related.

One interesting part was when he said that the early camp was primarily for guys being looked at as starters. That could mean the Brewers' minor league rotations will end up being something like: AAA: Hader, Woodruff, Wang (pick two of Burgos, Barbosa, Espino, Wilkerson) AA: Ortiz, Lopez, Perrin, Salas and Olczak(?!) A+: Diplan, Ponce, Meideiros, Peralta, Harber A: Z. Brown, Burnes, Webb, Supak, Yamamoto, Jankins, Kirby, Drossner, Walters(!) The most surprising name that's missing from that list in my opinion is Josh Pennington, although I guess it would be easier to stretch out a piggyback starter later, so maybe that doesn't mean anything.

Nottingham is a lock for AA, and they've signed so many AAA infielders that it makes me think that Dubon is at least 60/40 to start there as well. I guess they could conceivably push Erceg, Diaz or Ray past high A, but I doubt it. Especially in Ray's case, the Brewers already have five likely AA outfielders, and I think they want to give Coulter, Roache and Taylor at least half a season to reclaim their prospect status (and that's going to be tough enough with Phillips likely still in AA and Davis getting the occasional at-bat). Diaz and Erceg are possibilities, but I've got a feeling they'll spend at least half a season in Carolina to get the affiliation off on the right note. You'll probably end up with Demuth or Charles at first, Betancourt at second and Iskenderian or Allemand at third. As for the other guys, I think Gatewood gets pushed to A+, but Clark likely goes back to Wisconsin, although I could see an early outfield promotion if either he or Harrison get off to a fast start.