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Boomer5

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Everything posted by Boomer5

  1. Boomer5
    This really disappointing. No wonder we got him. As an aside, one huge gap when evaluating a player is we never get to know how they are as people, only their various stats.
  2. Boomer5
    Well this post was poorly timed. Darn you Bickford!!
  3. Boomer5
    I do think he sold him high. Maybe it would have been higher had Thornburg had an excellent first half, but I'm ok that he sold him now to eliminate the risk of injury. That's not the issue; it's did we get a good return of 3 guys ranging from meh to interesting vs say selling him for one elite prospect and a useful MLB back up piece like the Will Smith deal?
  4. Boomer5
    Teams can't use FA dollars as currency much since the prices have gone into orbit so they are using prospects instead. The Nats still got fleeced unless we find out Giolito is a member of the Taliban or is about to have his arm fall off.
  5. Boomer5
    That's basically what the Cubs did with Heyward last year and then would up signing Fowler so Jason went back to RF. Heyward. The poster boy for the "6 WAR Elite" OF.
  6. Boomer5
    So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun. And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely. The first two are just simple facts. The defense argument suggests Eaton is elite if he is RF, subpar if he is in CF. Braun is a subpar LF. If the goal is to win the analytics/surplus value trophy, Eaton is compelling. If the goal is to win a WS in the next two years, Braun is the better player, hands down. More expensive, yes, but he is still a 900 guy, Eaton has yet to be a 800 guy.
  7. Boomer5
    I concur. This was such a lopsided trade, maybe they found something they really didn't like. His MLB performance was terrible, but it must have been something that was revealed while he was up besides the raw stats and more towards the lack of hope that he could develop. All that to give up and they still didn't get their closer included, who's they wanted to trade. For what's it's worth, the MLB radio guys on serious couldn't believe this trade.
  8. Boomer5
    Looks like we will get cash from the Cubs for Smith
  9. Boomer5
    Agreed and very well phrased.
  10. Boomer5
    The stats say he is scary bad in CF, where he will play. That's why projections say he will be a 2 plus WAR player. On offense he is a 790 guy. Not bad, but hardly the stuff of let's mortgage our entire farm system. Bad D and sub 800 offense. Sounds like an elite CF to you? For what's it's worth, people seem to think he was also a bad clubhouse guy since he was part of the Sale/LaRoache clique. Nothing available says Eaton is going to be quality CF for the Nationals. Cheap yes. Elite no. Your move.
  11. Boomer5
    I agree and yes I hope I'm wrong too. This trade looks like the Brewers think the same thing and rushed to unload him before that happens. I can't say I blame them.
  12. Boomer5
    I'd say no about Bryant and maybe about Machado. But I don't think it matters a whole lot about how Eaton compares to two random players you've selected. You're going to have to tell me why Eaton isn't worth what the analytics say. It's your argument. I'm open to an analysis of how the metrics got Eaton all wrong. Go for it. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11205&position=OF Check out his 2017 projections, for starters. Then look at his advanced fielding in CF, where he will play.
  13. Boomer5
    BA: .284 OBP: .362 SLG: .428 OPS: .790 OPS+: 119 HR: 14 RBI: 59 2B: 29 (WINNER) 3B: 9 (WINNER) SB: 14 BA: .305 (WINNER) OBP: .365 (WINNER) SLG: .538 (WINNER) OPS: .903 (WINNER) OPS+: 136 (WINNER) HR: 30 (WINNER) RBI: 91 (WINNER) 2B: 23 3B: 3 SB: 16 (WINNER) Braun is a better offensive player than Eaton and I don't have any idea how this is a discussion. Contract is a discussion. Age is a discussion. Defense is a discussion. Offense isn't. Not even close.
  14. Boomer5
    Umm...who said anything remotely close to that? That argument doesn't make any sense. You are just trying to make analytics look silly with something that has nothing to do with the topic. WAR isn't calculating future value. It calculates value of that year and only that year. The past three years Eaton has had a WAR of: 5.2, 3.8, and 6.2. The middle year being down due to playing CF. So yah I think it is safe to say he is a 5+ WAR player. To get 5 years of that at a ridiculously cheap price is amazing. What are the odds any of the players in this deal put up a 5 WAR consistently every year? Probably pretty low. I don't know if I would personally trade a guy like Giolito to get a 5 WAR player, but something like a Brinson/Lopez/Dunning would have seemed more in line in my opinion. Nationals probably overpaid, but it wasn't a total overpay like some think. He will be playing CF, so he is more likely to be the middle year WAR guy. All that and they still don't have a closer. Just to drive me more insane than usual, what would Braun and Thornburg have netted?
  15. Boomer5
    Baseball Reference has Bryce Harper at 1.6 WAR last year. Yes he did not have a great year, but does anyone think Eaton is going to be more valuable the next 3 years than Harper? Analytics has jumped the shark with this trade.
  16. Boomer5
    Two completely separate calculations arrived at about the same number. BPro's WARP was about 6 as well. According to the currently understood measures of value, 6 WAR seems to be accurate. Adam Eaton is not worth what Machado is. I'm not saying the calculations are wrong, I'm saying the data and more likely the weighting used to arrive at that conclusion are wrong. Bryant is 7.7. Machado is 6.7. Are analytics saying Eaton is in their class?
  17. Boomer5
    Something is wrong with that WAR. Is analytics saying Eaton is worth about the same as Manny Machado? Plus he earned that 6.2 in right, and he'd play CF where is supposed to not be as good. I'll have what Rizzo is having.
  18. Boomer5
    Because Braun is 28, has good defense, controllable for 5 years, and for an average salary under $10mil yearly right? Heck regarding WAR Easton had a higher WAR even before factoring in defensive value. Braun's value is no where even near that of Easton's. Not even close. I'll take Ryan Braun any day, all day on my team over Adam Eaton. And that's not to knock Eaton, he's just not in the same class of a ballplayer. I agree. In the next two years, Braun is more valuable to a team like the Nationals. Eaton won't even be playing RF, where much of his excessive WAR came from. Let's face it, we all loved Gomez, but was he really a MVP caliber player in reality, despite what his WAR said? Defense seems to be inefficiently calculated in WAR. IF Eaton was worth that, what is McCutcheon or Braun worth? Even if it is 80% that haul, trade him now.
  19. Boomer5
    Except they kind of can't, because in a few months he'll have full 10/5 rights and will be able to veto any trade. It's not the best situation for the Brewers to be in. I'm of the viewpoint that they need to trade him this off-season (and will likely not get as much as we're hoping) because they don't want to be paying a likely oft-injured, declining Braun 20 mil in his ages 36 and 37 seasons. I forgot about the 10/5. Good point. I'd rather trade him too, especially seeing what Eaton returned.
  20. Boomer5
    I like the Thornburg return better. I guess you could still call Soler a prospect but he seems like a guy that isn't going to be complete player for arguably the best 3 year reliever run in baseball.
  21. Boomer5
    Exactly, Harper can and Braun would play left. The Nationals think they are an Adam Eaton away from a WS title? Is that even a viable sentence for any GM?
  22. Boomer5
    We couldn't have, because Eaton and Braun aren't comparable players. A player is worth whatever a team will give up for him. Just the way it is. We can say til we're blue in the face that Braun should be worth a top 25 and top 50 but if no one will give us that, he's not. I hear what you are saying but I'm having a difficult time imagining a baseball man with a team that needs to win now wanting Eaton over Braun. Maybe I'm old school, but to put it another way, if the Brewers traded Braun straight up for Adam Eaton, I think most Brewer fans would burn Miller Park to the ground.
  23. Boomer5
    You're right, Shaw was brutal in the 2nd half. But why doesn't his first half count for anything (2/3 of his ABs came first half)? Why doesn't his 2015 count? Or his age for that matter? There's value in a player like him. Regarding your last comment, so those are the only two scenarios that can play out? Given Thornburg's career you have no idea which guy you're going to see moving forward. He could be a 2.2 ERA, 2.8 ERA or even injure his elbow again. There's risk associated with him. If Shaw provides value at 3b and Dubon becomes a valuable MLB middle IF in 1.5-2yrs then we landed 2 MLB players for 1. There's value alone in landing a starting MLB 3b over a certain prospect. Obviously there are a lot of what ifs in any trade. I'm just saying that in a vacuum, the season Thornburg had plus the reliever market, plus 3 years of team control equal way more than we got back. We as Brewer fans think his arm might fall off at worst or regression to mean as most likely, so in that sense we got three useful, though not exciting, pieces for a guy who is good but not elite. This is a market that just saw Adam Eaton bring in THE prize minor league talent based only off analytics and team control so, yeah, this haul for Thornburg is meh.
  24. Boomer5
    Wow. That trade is based on analytics, not on reality. No way on this planet is Eaton worth that. If we knew a package like this was out there we needed to find a way to get it.
  25. Boomer5
    If the argument is Thornburg isn't elite then the equal argument would be we most certainly didn't bring back anyone elite back either. Maybe Dubon but the guy is 160 lbs so that says slap hitter more than anything else. Time will tell. Shaw was brutal the second half of last year. If Thornburg is the guy from last year in his prime with 3 more years of control, it was a terrible trade. If he was the guy from before that then it was a good trade.
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