You can't assume either way, it's a risk. He'll be a year older, could get hurt and miss a big chunk, could play and hit poorly, etc. Or, he could do roughly the same or have better numbers in MP. Either way he gambled that 41 mil and I wouldn't have done it. He could be supremely confident in his ability, do all the needed offseason work to have a great year, and if he takes a foul ball of his wrist just right it could cost him tens of millions of dollars. Basically, to get a better deal after this year (3/40ish) seems less likely than getting a worse deal. As in, assuming all goes well he'll probably get roughly the same thing (and I'd bet he puts it in the bank this time) but if things go poorly he's out a lot.