tmwiese55

I'd agree Brewers probably would've been darn close to saying yes to 7/166 if it was on the table before trade. I'm sure he expects way way more than that though. That seems a very low estimate right now as he's stayed healthy and performed well in a tougher division. I have a feeling even if general plan for NYM is play it cool for a couple years that the owner will get antsy and make a big offer. I'd put NYY in the less likely group to start based on expecting them to have to pay like 10/500 for Soto, while still having Judge, Stanton, Cole, etc. But if Soto leaves it frees up a lot. Random note, Stanton is down to 3 years left after this year, so its getting close. Could also start to see other teams start pulling the Ohtani deferred route before it gets banned, which would help a team like NYY spend for him and Soto at once

Yea a lot that could go into this discussion. I'd guess in the short term that injuries sort some of it out along with reminding that at this point no OFs have yet to lay a claim as locked in proven starting caliber hitters. If they're confident in MItchell and want to get him some ABs I'd just swap him and Frelick for a bit. Lets Frelick get tons of low pressure ABs/practice until an inevitable injury happens bringing him back up. See how Mitchell does up here for a few weeks. But mostly was gonna add for Black's long term spot, (I think OP said they didn't see where he fit longer term), I think I'd look at him as directly taking Bauer's spot next year, heck maybe in the next few weeks if they let Bauers go. Get him to be emergency competent at 2B/3B/OF but primarily getting a lot of starts vs RHP at 1B/DH. Seems his spot to step in is kinda clear.

It'll be interesting to see who pays up. Kinda sucks for him that LAD blew their load last year, unless of course they don't care and still get involved. Other big spenders like NYY, Bos, Phi, NYM, likely not as free spending as normal right now too. Maybe NYY though would still get involved or Mets owner decides they can't sit idle. Cubs maybe make most sense? Maybe Seattle, SD, or SF

Really surprising considering difference in rosters, Phi having such a better record, but most importantly that Phi is almost for sure getting 1st rd bye when MKE is likely not.

Popped in my head on the acquiring pitching posts in other threads. But have they 100% said Woodruff won't pitch this year? I think they have but couldn't remember for sure. Popped in my head as if they did plan on getting his rehab started that with their current lead they should be able to keep scrambling their way to winning the division and then maybe have the last month to build up Woodruff by playoffs. But I think they said they're not gonna bother trying that and will play fully safe and target next year?

Its a record year for offensive SS this year. Yea, prior to this year Swanson has been fine its not like I'm saying he sucks. But we're talking about the contract the next 5-6 years. People can overpay for ok hitting SS if they want, its my opinion its not good strategy. use of money But of course a market like Chi can afford to not be the most efficient. Just think we ran Arcia out of town as an elite defensive SS for not being a good enough hitter, and that was when he was cheap young on rookie contract. Now we're talking about teams not being upset about getting that production for 25 mil per year and the guy entering his 30s. Obviously Swanson has been more reliable than Arcia was back then, but 25 mil per year or 800k, Arcia had some .750ish years in there too. Funny part of of that is Atl let Swanson go for the exact reasons I'm saying and replaced him with Arcia for next to nothing who did just fine last year. And Brewers fans in general, we watched our system produce good defensive SS after another from Hardy, Escobar who we had to trade, Arcia, then get Adames for a relief pitcher, and now have Turang and Ortiz who can do it too. It's not hard to get good D at SS is what I'm saying so shouldn't have to pay this much unless they can really hit. And for the origin of this, is this a bad contract? If he stops being a competent 750+ ops and is instead 700 or lower like "right now" as I said then its a real bad contract since you can get D and that kind of offense for league min and my guess is the Cubs are not happy about the prospects of it right now.

When did I say he's have got it if he wasn't shortsop? I never said he wasn't good at D, in fact I think I said he and Willy are both good at D several times. My point is big time money isn't worth it for good D, blah O. You can get guys to play good D for cheap, we have 2 right now. Hoerner just won a gold glove at 2B and came up playing SS. My guess is Cubs management is the opposite of fine right now watching their big FA signee have to be batted bottom of the order while they're in last place knowing they owe him for 6 more years. Saw him get out with bases loaded tonight. The Cubs fans around me at the games I went to so far this year have already turned on him. But like you said, they knew the numbers more than me and are smarter baseball guys than me, they can think that if they want. IMO they're wrong though and the money would be better spent elsewhere. I also didn't say other teams wouldn't also regret their big contracts so I don't know how Trea matters. That said, his OPSs were in the 900s most years, it dipped his last year with LA. Then put up 778 last year and has been hurt most of this year while a journeyman stepped in for probably league min and did just fine in his spot. Yes, I think Phi is going to be kicking themselves for about 6-7 years at the backend, not sure how that makes the Cubs happy to be paying their guy 25 mil the next 5 years to hit poorly, they're happy and proud their only wasting 25 mil for 6 years instead of 10? Somehow you pointing out Trea helps my point, he was elite much better than Swanson and has already started declining starting at age 29. But, he's also one showing my previous point about paying elite guys being better, he was elite and now as he's dropping off he's still good for a few more years. If you're just good, when you drop off you're just a guy then, that's whats happening with Swanson, ETA: sorry, just realized this is in a different thread than the other discussion. So some of this is a combo of that, if you didn't read that this might not make full sense and been too much.

All the contract talk made me go back and look at Rendon. I did not remember him being thaaaat good with WAS before the contract, elite level numbers. Thought he was a tick below that more at All Star level not MVP discussion level. Still, Angels are paying two 33/34ish year old former elite guys about $70 mil to do nothing right now.

I go with Boston stemming back to the early 00s era duels with NYY. I never got how NYY was this hated team due to their spending and all that, remember 'evil empire' and all that talk. Meanwhile, Boston was the exact same thing but everyone acted like they're not. Essentially, at least NYY owned what they were, meanwhile Bos tried to act like they were some plucky underdog while in reality they were the same things. Combine that with overall Boston sports fans being unbearable. For example, I was just on a call with two Boston guys. Few mins of them talking about Finals tonight and how Celts are gonna blow it etc. You guys have won like 16 titles the last 25 years yet are non stop whining, pessimism, and negativity.

Of course I do. But that's not what I'm not talking about. I'm saying that people who can only muster low to mid 700s OPs are not special hitters worthy of mega contracts, no matter how good their D is because D can be had for cheap. To truly be worth big money you need to be an elite hitter. Having 300 OBPs and so so avg stats is just not that. And even when it comes to megacontracts, even elite guys usually don't live up to the contracts as they age, but at least before they fall off they're worth the money. And being elite even after a fall off you can still be ok for a while.. So we shouldn't be looking to give a megacontract to non elite guys, when they fall off a bit they become the same as guys you can get similar production from for league min rookie deals. When a 740ish ops level guy dips he's now putting up offensive stats AAAA or backup type guys can do. If you want to build a team paying that kind of money for defense, go ahead but I think that team would not be good. I know you can get good defense for a fraction of the cost, for example we have two guys on our team right now that can do it for league min. You can use what stats you want. To me the most basic quick and simple one for hitting that is a good aggregate that everyone understand is OPS. Every stat has something good about, something bad about it. OPS is one that while of course flawed provides a pretty steady middle ground of something to go off of and is quick and easy. ETA: and to Yelich is just logic. Guy with .750ish OPS we all tear apart and trash for being a crap hitter not living up tot he money. Fast forward 2 years, 750ish OPS level hitter we're now rushing to give 200 mil as he enters his 30s? Its just not all that logically sound. Big long convo here that can be done but it simply comes down to most big contracts flop and blow up in teams faces. We are the smallest market and don't have money so we can't be the ones risking it. If you think the contracts handed out to Swanson, Xander, and literally countless other guys the last 15ish year that have blown up in teams faces over and over and over are things you desire on the team more power to you. But I hope they're smarter about things, which they have been so I'm happy with how they've been doing things.

Nothing to do with what I said. I was just talking about their stats, which aren't anything special. We were all looking to run Yelich out of town for having similar production and calling him the worst contract in baseball. Now you're passionately arguing to give a similar contract to Adames. That's all Adames has been able to do at his prime/peak, he's about to leave his peak and you want to pay him 25 mil pear year until he's like 36. Go for it if you want,, I'm a hard pass though.

Sorry, he had a 717 OPS last year with a 310 OBP. Previous year he had a 298 OBP. These are not good numbers worthy of mega contracts. Matt Chapman had some very similar numbers the last few years as red flags, it made teams hold off on paying him and I bet San Fran wishes they held off too. No one is saying Adames is garbage, we're saying he's good at D but only OK at offense. That is not "garbage". Its just not worth 200 mil and whoever pays it is probably gonna regret it.

Yea how about that one. I don't think I've seen any explanation on it either. I was just throwing out a name though, IDK who else is potentially coming up that LA could get involved in, but yea the do make sense for Adames as you said. I just get the vibe LA is smart enough to stay away from a big deal to Adames. But as a point of comp, Bichette has been more in the 820 ops ballpark his career and would be a FA a year earlier. That 60-100 extra every year is a big deal. But yea, he's costing himself a ton of money right now. Kind of screwing Toronto, first just by hurting the team on field but if he'd maintained his 820ish again this year he could get traded at the deadline or offseason for a massive haul. After this year (assuming it continues), they probably just have to ride it out with him next year like Willy's bad year made us do. Even if he bounces back next year he won't get too much back at the deadline being a rental.

Adames was not very good the last two years. OBPs around .300. 756 and 717 OPS, those are not great numbers and I don't think many here would describe him as consistent. Of course they're not exactly the same, Adames has a bit more power. But the general idea of both are SSs who are good at D, but only OK (not great/elite) at offense is generally true. They're also hitting FA at the same age. Its about as good of a comp as you can get. On the baseball reference similar players list, Swanson is #4. Similar Batters through 27 Rico Petrocelli (954.7) Miguel Tejada (948.1) Juan Uribe (942.2) Dansby Swanson (936.1)

Because almost all big deals to guys for their aging seasons turn out to be complete duds unless they're truly elite players like Betts/Freeman. It's really that simple. I mean just in that other thread we had that talk on Swanson, they are very similar players going into FA in the 750-770 OPS ballpark with good D, and in year two of that deal it already looks rough. But yea of course there is a number that could work, but you and others just said some pretty high ones that just aren't feasible here. Think the Padres are loving that Xander deal right now? But to what the person said about focusing on buying out years for other guys instead. We all like Adames and would generally want him on the team the next 2-3 years if money wasn't factor, just not at 25 mil per year and for another 3-4 years after too. Lets say during that good first season he had with us that they'd found a way to get him to sign through the 26 or 27 season at what the price would've been way back then, we'd be sitting pretty well right now then looking at his next few years at say 8-12 mil per year.

Then don't do it. But that's the OPs point, put money in that area to get it to a number that does work, so if you say 60 doesn't, getting to 75 maybe does, or whatever example you want to do. Either way, its more cost efficient than paying guys 25 mil at age 35. There's others here who are bigger experts than me on doing all this math on their years/arby etc, but remember he's playing for like nothing the next 3 years gambling his health until he's in 30s before he can get that payday. So you don't have to give much for those first few years. Then its arby and a couple more years. Hey, you were just frustrated hanging in AAA at age 25 doing nothing, you've had 2 good months, here's 50 mil right now and you never have to worry about money no matter what happens. Or gamble year by year on your play and health, only to hit FA at a bad age where teams won't want to pay you since you came up late. That's the basic discussion, up to him. Just us brewers fans saw a few examples of guys in his similar situation who should've took a contract like that, Villar, Arcia, Keston, etc. And to a larger scale degree, Woodruff and Nelson

I assumed they'd pull back on spending a bit and/or look for a better spot than him. For example, Bichette after next year, though he's struggling this year

Generally I agree with you. But, the idea that poster proposed would be buying those very cheaply since you're doing it so early, might even be team options. Its not for 25 mil per year. The whole contract is probably under 60 mil.

I probably wouldn't' even do the 5/130 discussed but at least I'd consider since 5 years isn't crazy long. If you guys ae thinking he's going to drastically top that given the last posts, then yea its a not even close. Let the Angels do it and then wonder why they're winning 74 games. I guess one thing to note is the league is very strong at SS right now, I won't to say the best production ever, so his market might not be so hot. Random best guess of who could be a good fit for him is SF. They've been looking to spend big money and keep striking out, but did do the shorter terms ones late last offseason. Hope Willy gets paid and does well, but being a HR based player he'd get hurt by that park.

I would pass on giving him a contract in that Swanson world. If he doesn't like what he sees out there and takes our 1 year arby (I think that's how it works) I'm down for that but I'll pass on the ages low to mid 30s years for 25+ mil per year when even in his good year right now is at .769 ops and was in the low 700s last year. Remember he already turns 29 in a few weeks. Or say he decides he needs a Hoskins style prove it deal, sure give that a try here so its minimal risk to us. Love all the positives you say too but a team with our budget has to spend that money more wisely. There is two guys on the team now that can step in and play very good SS D for league min. Don't get me wrong though, if they did do some kind of deal like that I'll cross my fingers and hope for the best that he can stay above 750 ops with good D for at least the next 3-4 years before we eat it the last 2-3 years.

Well my post was about hitting, as it said. Either way, this overall was about bad contracts, You don't need to pay 25 mil per year for good D and just ok offense. And that just ok offense was in his prime, think what it will be in his mid 30s. And its already starting in the 2nd year of the contract. And then also how will that great D be holding up as he gets to 32/33 years old.

"right now", which is what I said, he has a 220/290 and 640 ops. Last year in that stellar year you spoke of he had a whopping .744 OPS. In his good years with ATL he's generally been a .760 area guy. He's signed for 5 more years. for 25-28 mil per year

Yup, the obvious move is that. I'd guess their issue on pulling the trigger right now is just depth. They probably don't guess that Black will do drastically better right now this year but if you do this move you'll lose Bauers to waivers (assume, I didn't double check his options). So if Black flops or gets hurt you then don't have someone. Right now, you have both to handle the grind and injuries of a long season.

Nitpick, but I'd certainly call Swanson's contract bad. I'd have said it since it was signed and its even moreso now. He has roughly 5/140 left on his deal for his 31-35 year olds seasons. Even when he's right he's just an average/ok hitter. Right now, you're paying 25 mil a year for what you can get out of a AAAA player for league min.

Problem with trading for a 1B/DH is that a portion of the days he is only replacing Contreras at DH. Which is actually likely a downgrade. And Sanchez has been competent. However, come playoffs there's no need to DH Contreras so then it is your max value in the lineup. Still I'd say most 'bang for your buck' in a trade would be outfield. Unless RF continues to do better like it has lately and Perkins manages to keep it up then its not a drastic need either, but I wouldn't be banking on both of those things to hold the next 4 months. And keep in mind that OF could also be part of the same DH rotation improvement the 1B/DH would be.