MKE81
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What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
MKE81 replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Because he's 25, has more raw talent than anyone on our roster, and was one of the best players in MLB at an age when most players haven't even hit Double A. I do get why people are scared off by his immaturity concerns, but especially given where we are at right now as a franchise, it shouldn't be hard to see why people are intrigued by the idea IMO. Of course I agree with this. I would love to keep Braun the rest of his contract but it absolutely makes sense as why the Brewers would trade him for Puig. Braun can only be traded to a small number of teams without his approval (plus LA area is his home). Puig can be traded to any team. Braun is 33 next season and Puig 26. Braun has 4-5yrs remaining vs Puig 3yrs at half the price (McCarthy 2yrs remaining) - so all of Braun's money will be off the table within 2yrs instead of 4-5. If Puig bounces back to his All Star ability of 300/380/880+ over the next 1-2yrs he'll bring back a great haul of top tier talent given his age. He's playing to get paid massively so he'll have plenty of motivation along with a change of scenery to a young team where he somewhat becomes "the man". The return for Puig at this point would be greater than whatever we'd get for Braun. In 2017, Puig isn't blocking any prospect from playing. The season starts with Santana/Broxton/Puig and still needing a 4th OF. Brinson turns 23 in May and has only played in 31 AAA games over career. He can play the entire year in AAA then start in CF in 2018 with the Brewers OR, more likely to happen, he'll be up at some point next season if he's performing well in AAA. At that point there's the potential to trade someone or just run with a 4 man OF as everyone will still get plenty of ABs that way Brinson can be eased in. 2018 is the year it would become an issue if nobody is traded as we'd have those 4 + Cordell and possibly Phillips. Reality is several OFs will be traded over the course of the next 3yrs or so (I think Puig, Broxton will for sure be gone - Broxton because he's 27 in May). It's just a matter of who the others will be as room will continually need to be created with Ray and Clark following all the other guys. This doesn't even include Liriano if he's back next year given he just started playing in winter ball. The highest performing OFs will be staying here. Carter is at 1b in 2017 (most likely) and people have mentioned Santana moving to 1b after that but what about Cordell? He played 49 games in the IF in 2015 (33 3b, 14 SS, 2 1b), is more athletic than Santana and is a 6'4 target. I actually think none of our OFs end up playing 1b but these two are the most likely candidates if that does happen. -
Erceg played 42 games in A - over his final 38 he slashed 255/304/767. So, yeah, he still has things to work on. Like I said, I can see him starting in Carolina but can also see him spending a month+ in A again before the promotion. It happens all the time with good prospects, they split seasons at different levels. Additionally, Diaz wasn't 100% shifted to 2b last year. He will become a 2b long-term hence the beginning of a transition but he will split time between SS/2b like he's done and is currently doing in AFL. Regardless, it doesn't take away from the point of Erceg not playing SS in A+. He potentially could though at A given he's spent time there at instructionals as it would allow him, Gatewood, Gideon to be in the lineup every day. If I recall correctly, it appeared as though the Rangers were trying to push Gallo on us. Given the types of players Stearns acquires it doesn't make sense for him to want Gallo over Brinson. Either way, there's absolutely no way Guerro brings back Gallo (Top 15). Getting a Top 100 for him I'd drown in tears of happiness.
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Is that why he got 40 ABs in the minors vs 17 ABs in the majors with us after the trade? I like the pickup and am interested in seeing how he develops, but he was a secondary piece in a trade of a reliever. I don't think there are any strong indicators that he's being pushed to be our everyday catcher in 2017. Especially at a position that usually splits a lot of time anyways, I think being the right-handed side of a platoon may be a good way to ease him into the majors and put him in a situation to be successful early on. He only received 17AB with the Brewers because they allowed Maldy to show what he could do as a full-time player since he's been here forever then promoted Pina because he performed in AAA all year - they rewarded the guys who were already in the system given there was a 0% chance of making the playoffs. Susac started 4 games and slashed 286/375/946 during those games. He's 24yrs old for the majority of next season. I don't care if he was the 5th piece of a deal. In 2015 he was the Giants top prospect and a Top 100 overall and if he wasn't blocked by Posey he would have already been given the starting opportunity in SF. He needs to be given the opportunity to earn the starting job; not the platoon job. Again, 2 of the past 4 WS champions had almost no LH power bats. It's not a prerequisite
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I'd push Erceg to Carolina and if he hits there, I'd move him to Biloxi for the 2nd half. I certainly wouldn't block him with a guy (Gatewood) who's a year younger. My guess is that they move Gatewood around and at Carolina and let him settle at 3B when and if Erceg gets promoted. Gatewood and Ghelfi could share time at 1B at Carolina. I agree with the premiss of this. Erceg won't be blocked by anybody. I can definitely see Erceg starting in Carolina but if he stays in Appleton for the first month or so before a promotion I could see him at SS with Gatewood/Gideon at the corners as that doesn't disrupt either of them. When Erceg is promoted he slides to 3b in Carolina given Diaz will occupy SS. I just think Gideon has to start at 1b in Appleton - he was on pace for 45 doubles, 38HR, 92rbi in rookie ball (at age level) if given 500AB and he's only 1yr older than Gatewood. Gideon should outperform Gatewood in Appleton next year and I would actually package Gatewood in a trade if he can't figure out A ball by mid-season
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Given that his defense at third is perhaps adequate, though probably not much more than that, and given that Cecchini's .316 wOBA was about 70th percentile for the PCL, I have a tough time seeing the argument for above average AAA player. I like Cecchini and don't think it would be a mistake to keep him on the 40-man roster this offseason. And it is working in Cecchini's favor that the Brewers don't have a ton of minor leaguers that will need to be added to the 40-man (though Taylor Williams' re-emergence might cost someone a spot). But I would be modestly surprised if the Brewers don't outright him in the next few weeks/months. As for Valbuena, thank you, no, unless he's willing to sign a below-market deal. I don't rely on specific sabermetrics as they never tell the entire story but I understand your argument and sure, one can be made for not being an above average AAA player. He has the skill set and tools to be an average MLB player and needs a chance to prove this regardless of him not having a great year. Whether he steps up and seizes it is on him. I think they'll keep him off the 40 man too but sign him to compete in ST because, like you said, there aren't any other 3b at the moment at this level at I don't think they should give up on him right now. I'm more excited to see if Stearns is going to make a trade for a young, blocked 3b though.
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These are just the numbers of players thrown out at home - it doesn't tell you how many runners were thrown out on close plays or by 10 feet. Those are the numbers that actually tell you something. For me, if the average is 16-19 and we're 8+ runs more than that I personally could care less. You're talking over 162 games and unless there's a break down of whether or not those specific runners thrown out could have altered the outcome of the game then who cares. Additionally, when you're struggling to score runs you take more chances on the bases to try to make something happen. The Brewers led baseball in SB this year (at least I think we did but could be wrong!) and were much more aggressive on the bases across the board, which is why we went from average the past 2yrs to leading the league.
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I don't think people should have expected Cecchini to hit 300 this past year given his 2015 was so awful. His 2014 and 2016 years in AAA were very similar overall and on the surface that's not what you want to see given he's older with more experience but his 2015 was so bad he had so much to work on to start getting back to where he was. I think he gained confidence this year having a solid bounce back from where he was. It wasn't a great year but he was an above average AAA player. The main thing I wish he did better was get on base, get closer to a 340-350 mark. His 2016 road numbers were nowhere near what they were in 2014 and 2015 (2014 had better road numbers across the board than home and 2015 had better BA on road, similar OBP for both and higher OPS at home). If he can get back to having those much better road numbers his AAA in CO moving forward could definitely be 300/360/760ish, which is why I think he should be given an opportunity to win the 3b job in ST just like Broxton was given the chance to win CF in ST competing against several other players. The Brewers got lucky with Hill for 3 months. His production in Boston was the same as his 2014 and 2015 years. I don't think he should be resigned and I don't think any other FA 3b makes sense either leaving Cecchini given an opportunity prove his worth and Stearns trading for a young, blocked 3b who's ready for this level (Perez is clearly working in at 3b too).
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Although I still think they probably pick up a third baseman another way, the Brewers' lack of infield options in the upper level of the minor leagues is why Valbuena makes about as much sense as any possible free agent signing. Perez would still get plenty of at bats as the top backup at three infield positions (which seems to be the role the Brewers would prefer to have him in). Rivera's defense will keep him in the picture, but his stat line last year, including AAA, makes it tough for me to see him as a guy you're reserving Major League at bats for. I could see Cecchini coming back on a minor league deal because someone has to play third base at Colorado Springs, but he struggled to post a .700+ OPS in the thin air. Basically, so many pointed out in the other thread, Erceg is the most advanced likely third base prospect in the system right now, and he hasn't played above A ball. I hear what you're saying overall but I don't think Valbuena or any other FA 3b makes sense at all given Stearns' strategy. In regard to Cecchini, he isn't a power guy so I don't read much into his OPS in an environment like CO. I definitely think he's "capable" of keeping his BA in that area while improving his OBP another 15+ so that would put his OPS in the 720 area (closing in on what Perez did but would get on base more). I think he's capable of doing that but even if he's a 265/330/710 guy he can still help this team. Even if him and Perez split time at 3b it can work. I would also do what you mentioned in bringing Cecchini back on a minor league deal and have him earn that job in ST otherwise he fills that spot in AAA. I think Stearns still trades for a young, blocked 3b and gives him a chance but if he doesn't I can see a split of Cecchini/Perez at 3b (both can fill in at 1b too).
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lol agree. It probably wouldn't be good for all the young guys on the team. I'm less worried about Puig because he'd be away from LA (the city, not Dodgers) so that could suppress some of the additional distractions plus he knows he needs to get back on track to land that next big contract in 2 years. Valencia is a just a jerk and that's not changing. If Valencia was a FA I'd understand pursuing him because he's pretty low cost and could be a productive place holder for a couple years but trading for him makes zero sense in terms of how Stearns goes about his business. And Lopez can definitely contribute as a late inning reliever - 94 with a great bender. Can throw multiple innings. He needs to be moved to the pen this year but that's another topic to be had elsewhere. Valencia just doesn't make sense trading for
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He'll continue to mature physically so he should be in the 15-20HR range consistently with maybe the potential to hit low-mid 20HR here or there
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He was at 6.1M this year and had the best year of his career in terms of production vs ABs so he should command that at minimum and I don't think he's an every day player to begin with let alone worth paying that much as a platoon guy. Clearly we don't have any 3b in the pipeline who are ready to take the position over like an Arcia coming into SS. I like Cecchini even though he lacks HR power. He'll give you good ABs and last year got back on track as a lower K type guy. I can see a 265/330/710 for him so I don't think Valbuena is worth it even though he packs more punch. I can't see Stearns signing him vs going internal or trading a prospect for some young talent that's blocked and needs an opportunity (ie Villar, Broxton and now Susac)
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What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?
MKE81 replied to SandyTolan's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Yah sorry the Dodgers are a contending team. Not only is that seriously hurting the entire point of trading for Braun(boost the offense), but they have no back up plan if they were to trade Grandal. The only reason they are trading Puig is because he is expendable, but still has value. I bet a lot of people would prefer Grandal, but it isn't happening. I can't believe this actually required an explanation. Additionally, a LH power boost to our 2017 accomplishes nothing. The Brewers trading Puig will bring back a much better return than us trading Grandal. I must be in the minority of people who want Puig over Grandal. I'd rather have Puig with Austin Barnes in the trade than take on Grandal for 1-1.5 seasons. -
The only thing Snell does better than MCW is shoot 3s. So if we just wanted to improve from that position while getting rid of MCW then we succeeded. MCW overall is a much better player than Snell though. Giannis already is an all-star caliber player and in the second half when he ran point he put up all-around insane numbers from that spot. Parker needs to take that next step this year, especially with Middleton out and it shouldn't be an issue doing so considering he averaged 19/6 in the second half when he was able to take more shots. I actually believe the Bucks need to make Middleton their #3 option when he's back and focus on spot up 3s/shots letting Giannis and Parker do their thing first while getting him open looks so he's not forcing. Snell/Delly/Teletovic will get a lot of 3pt opportunities so we have shooters from deep (plus Terry - and Novak is he's ever activated) while Giannis/Parker will be highly efficient from 2. Beasley will be highly efficient as well per usual (instant offense and rebounding). Plumlee/Henson just need to alter shots and rebound. Monroe should only be played as a matchup advantage otherwise let him rot on the bench as he'll walk after the season anyway assuming he's not traded at some point. This team can make the playoffs without Middleton.
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Giannis is running point and he'll be getting a lot of minutes. Delly, Terry can run point too. Beasley will average 10+ppg and that was an excellent trade. MCW off the bench would have been very productive. Swapping Snell for him I don't understand as I think we could have got more. Snell is a good defender and a better shooter than MCW but I still don't get it
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I happened to catch the final 2-3 innings of the game and thought Nottingham was fine receiving pitches. He did block every ball (5 I think?) I saw in the dirt but even doing so he needs to work on dropping to both knees and squaring up. He tends to get down on one knee with the other still a little off the ground. He's still 2-3yrs away from the Brewers so plenty of time to correct something that's correctable. His arm seemed fine for a MLB starting catcher but I only saw one throw. He seems like he has the potential to be average defensively so as long as he continues to work hard at it to improve and his bat sticks he'll be just fine.
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The Brewers aren't signing a FA 1b. If Carter isn't back it's because they're trading for a young, blocked 1b since we don't have one in the system kicking the door down. I think Carter is back though and will be getting less than 8M. Anyone saying Carter's production hasn't change from last year just blows my mind. He set a career high in doubles, HR, RBI - his BA bounced back to his normal level, highest OBP in 3yrs, highest OPS in 4yrs. And he's nowhere near the worst 1b overall or defensively. He's not good defensively but he's also not a liability to the point you can't have him in the lineup. He's serviceable. Wily, Chase, Thornburg, Torres should all be back. Scooter needs to be traded. Maldy and Kirk I could care less what they do with them as long as they're not back on this team. Assuming Braun is gone we're looking at Santana/Broxton/Puig with them all missing time so the 4th OF needs to be of a certain quality. I hope Reed is given that chance and he earns it.
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Offseason trading partner - LA Angels
MKE81 replied to LouisEly's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
What exactly do you think Scooter will bring back in return? Even the worst system's in baseball have quality prospects, they just don't have depth of quality but every team has good upside players that aren't ranked in the Top 30 but the general public doesn't pay attention to them. Scooter isn't bringing back a high ranked prospect. Missaki, Peralta weren't even Top 30 in the Mariners system and now Peralta could very well crack the Top 20 of arguably the #1 system and he was actually rated behind Missaki. Scooter is a great example of a player to trade that can add low level prospects while improving our MLB team (Villar slides there - switch hitter who's much better offensively and will be a defensive upgrade as well). Scooter's an adequate starter/good platoon 2b who's a lefty with a few years of control left. He can contribute to a team looking for that. The Brewers don't need him and it's the perfect time to trade him. -
1 - Lewis Brinson 2 - Josh Hader 3 - Luis Ortiz 4 - Phil Bickford 5 - Isan Diaz 6 - Brett Phillips 7 - Brandon Woodruff 8 - Corey Ray 9 - Trent Clark 10 - Marcos Diplan 11 - Jacob Nottingham 12 - Ryan Cordell 13 - Jacob Barnes 14 - Lucas Erceg 15 - Corbin Burnes 16 - Cody Ponce 17 - Jorge Lopez 18 - Nathan Kirby 19 - Freddy Peralta 20 - Kodi Medeiros 21 - Michael Reed 22 - Devin Williams 23 - Brent Suter 24 - Damien Magnifico 25 - Taylor Williams
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Out of the 28,575 fans that attend the game, on average, what percent of those people don't purchase food/beverage? Clearly their analytics don't support your opinion of the average fan not purchasing food. "Adding more overly expensive food" - name the product and pricing for all the new foods/beverages coming to the park next year? You can't. Additionally, people go to restaurants and bars left and right every night in the greater Milwaukee area paying too much for products so what's the difference other than getting to watch baseball and partake in other activities in a different setting? The Brewers have $1 hot dog/soda days as well.
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Hey guys, the team on the field looks horrend.....whoa bro, look at that Mac N Cheese stand, lets see what it's about. Good thing that food stand was there to distract us from watching this (supposedly terrible) team. Imagine a franchise creating a better "overall" experience for baseball and non-baseball fans who can come to the park to enjoy what it has to offer. They don't make decisions based on die hard baseball fans who never leave their seats.
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Agree regarding starting pitching. Guerra will be traded eventually but for the future we know Davies can be a very effective 3-5 (if you want to put numbers on him). Adding Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Bickford over the next 1-3yrs is just a start. Stearns will continue to add quality pitching similar to these guys.
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I very much enjoyed watching this season. Villar was great. Carter HR champ. Braun putting up his career norms. Lucroy was his usual self and we got some great talent for him. Thornburg improved greatly and now takes over the closer role. Broxton flashing and Santana coming back, finally, showing what he's capable of and Arcia up for a couple months - all of them for a full season will be a lot of fun to watch. Young pen arms like Barnes performing well. Guerra a huge surprise and Davies performing how you'd expect. Adding Susac as catcher (hoping he starts next year) and Pina. I'm actually more excited to watch these guys next year, especially when adding Hader and Brinson to the mix.
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That's where I differ. Every major league season is precious. Purposely not putting your team into position to improve (when the path is so obvious and not detrimental to long range goals) hurts in the long run. The young players on this team need to learn how to play in pressure situations. I'd go out and get a LH hitting OF to spell Braun and be in soft platoon with Santana who hit just .231/.318/.408 vs. RHP as opposed to .312/.404/.532 vs. LHP. It's a glaring need that won't go away in 2018 either unless it's addressed. Nieuwenhuis just isn't quite up to that role. Neither was Flores, but the fact that both were tried showed they recognize that they needed a balance regardless of where they are in rebuild process. So you want to platoon Santana because, as a first full season player (which was half of that due to injury), he slashed 231/318/408 vs RHP while just turning 24 a couple months ago. You don't platoon guys like Santana, soft or otherwise, for obvious reasons (I mean, clearly you do because Santana is the guy that forced the trade of your boy Davis so you don't like him by default). 2012 A+ vs RHP he slashed 307/394/951 - 2013 AA 242/332/815 - 2014 AAA/MLB 264/360/775 - 2015 AAA/MLB 288/385/888. But hey, again, that would require people to look beyond this past season to see if 2016 has a trend, which it clearly doesn't. For comparison Davis was 241/299/815 vs RHP this year with 32% of those hits being HRs. Santana will be just fine vs RHP.
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Briggs, I disagree regarding LH bats. They should be adding talent regardless of whatever form that comes in. Is it great to have balance in that regard? Of course. But given we aren't competing for the playoffs next year I personally could care less about that then. The lefties will be in the lineup by the time they're playoff contenders. I think Scooter needs to be gone during winter for sure. He serves no purpose on this team as he blocks Villar from playing 2b, a position that will be his best for defense. Yes that opens up 3b to be back-filled but even if Perez stepped in you upgrade the IF defense by plenty. And even though he might have a lower OBP than Scooter he'll provide similar or more pop while providing much more speed. Plus, like Villar, he's versatile in the field. Scooter is hitting arby years and has 3yrs of control coming off a bounce back year. Someone will take him on even if it's in a platoon role given he's a young, experienced lefty. Susac had limited PT after coming up and in that type of situation I don't pay attention to what they do off the bench vs when they start. Susac started 4 games with a 286/375/946 line. Clearly he's not repeating that for a full season but he should be given every opportunity to start next year. It's realistic to see a 260/330/780 line with 15HR, which is a huge upgrade to Maldy. I like Maldy but he needs a change of scenery with Pina stepping in alongside Susac. I think Stearns fills 3b via trade and tries to acquire someone like a Villar - talented but in a situation where it's difficult for them to break through. I also wouldn't mind if he takes Cecchini off the 40 man resigning him with a ST invite. He's a happy medium between Perez from last year and this year while being a lefty (there's your plug Briggs:) Even if him and Perez split time there it makes sense. He could eventually provide value off the bench moving forward considering he plays both corners. He can be a contributor and have a MLB career regardless of not having a lot of power.
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I'll only speak for myself on why I think Rivera has a locked spot with Kirk not on the team. I do think Braun/Puig trade happens and the starting OF is set. I wouldn't be shocked if we only have 1 backup OF to start and I think it'll be Reed. Santana/Broxton/Puig are playing 150 games barring injury. Reed is a cheap 23yr old who plays all 3 spots but will get on base at a much higher clip than Kirk while also bringing speed to the table. Kirk won't change as a player - you know what you're getting, he's terrible away from Miller Park and he's more expensive. Reed could still manage to get 150 AB and flash some value that makes him a great backup for us or potential trade bait. More importantly, Brinson will no doubt be up at some point, which then puts the OF situation at Santana/Brinson/Puig/Broxton + Reed then. This is why I see no point in having Kirk back because he isn't remotely close to being a starter nor someone we can trade for good prospects when needing to clear space for others coming up in the system. There's no PT for him to bring up his value. Combine all of that with Perez being able to play all 3 OF spots, which is another reason I don't see us starting out with 5 OF. Regarding Rivera, I do think Scooter is traded before the season with Villar shifting to 2b. Right now I have Perez starting at 3b but only because that's the only option that makes sense with the current players. I do think we'll end up with another veteran IF who can play 3b though. Rivera is a backup who can play 2b, SS, 3b at a high level defensively and that by itself matters greatly. His hitting is what it is but you're not asking him to give you 350 AB. Arcia/Villar/Carter will be playing 150 games barring injury so you literally just need someone to fill in on occasion or late in a game if the starter is removed for precautionary reasons or something odd. Rivera can do that. Plus he's young and cheap.

