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MadThinker88

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Everything posted by MadThinker88

  1. MadThinker88
    Well done Mass...
  2. MadThinker88
    A very good point being raised here (in bold). It also goes to the mindset of the player - is he being driven solely by the money (wanting the mega payday)? Why is Arrieta so focused on getting away from the Cubs?? Compare this to Tanaka with the Yankees. Most people (myself included) believed he would opt out the contract this off season. Instead he opted to stay in his deal. The idea of already getting a large chunk of money & playing for contender outweighed going somewhere else for even more money and might not be in position to contend. With many competitors, getting the title/ ring is the main driving force. But once they get 1, they break into 2 types: 1) I got mine & no one can take it away from me or 2) I got a ring, nice. Now I need to get back to work because I want another and another. I'm getting the sense that Jake falls into category 1. Players like Jeter, Posey, Papi Ortiz are in the 2nd category...
  3. MadThinker88
    I would not be surprised if the Brewers "suffer" a setback in 2018 like the Twins did in 2016. The Twins it can be argued over achieved in 2015, finishing 2nd in the AL Central behind defending AL Champs (& eventual) WS Champs KC Royals. In 2016 the Twins struggled out of the gate and eventually ended up with the worst record in baseball for the season. In 2017 the Twins rallied/ rebounded to finish in 2nd place again & this time get 1 of the Wild Card slots. Most places/ writers/ experts will say that the Brewers overachieved in 2017. That is not a bad thing. Thinking the achievements as an indication that the rebuild is completely over and the Brewers are in position to challenge for the division title and post-season each season moving forward is a mistake. I do not believe the Brewers will end up with the worst record in the division (or league) for 2018, but having a sub .500 season would not surprise me. If the setback is used as an opportunity to get more answers about current players and find out if certain guys are better for a starting or bullpen roles (ie Hader) then the year can be a spring board for consistent winning and playoff contention starting in 2019 & moving forward.
  4. MadThinker88
    Not knocking the idea but one thing to recall - Tampa manager Kevin Cash spent time in Cleveland before landing this job. He would be familiar with Aguilar and that could be a good OR bad thing (depending on Cash's experiences with Jesus in Cleveland/ spring training).
  5. MadThinker88
    I was listening to a podcast today from Baseball America about the AFL this year. I think it posted last week. During the podcast both guys were suggesting that Corey Ray has been a mess all year & at this point has been passed by Monte Harrison and Trent Clark (has power, can take a walk) on the depth chart. They also wondered if Ray will be moving up to AA or at least starting the year in Carolina (high A) to try and get some positive momentum before moving up to AA.
  6. MadThinker88
    Blows my mind, but there ya go. I thought the people saying zero votes were crazy. They were right. I was wrong. But we are crazy.. Crazy like the fox. I appreciate you acknowledging the final outcome of the NL RoY vote..
  7. MadThinker88
    Guys, I will agree that Beltran is not a 1st ballot HOF but I suspect he will be voted in at some point. His all around game and his incredible post season performances (overall higher post season numbers than regular season numbers) will be a factors. His candidacy will be a very good debate when the time comes. I realize some will try to correlate if Beltran gets into the HOF so should Braun or Manny Ramirez. In Beltran's favor is his longevity & never having a suspension for PEDs (that I can recall).
  8. MadThinker88
    clancy - I am only looking at your proposed extensions for Nelson & Knebel. Regarding the money I think your on the low side for each & I have attempted to give you my reasoning why I believe you are low. I grant you Nelson is injured and trying to come back. I think that injury offsets (or cancels out) the effect of inflation AND his being 2 years older than when Kluber signed his extension deal going into 2015 (or when Carrasco signed his 4 yr deal going into 2015). Nelson signing a deal equal to numbers of 2015 would be a hometown/ injury discount. As for Knebel, closers and top setup men are finally getting the large paydays. Knebel is a super 2 meaning he will get 4 years of arbitration (if he wants it) and the 1 thing I have not seen is players getting a pay DECREASE thru the arbitration process. I think if the Brewers offer him 4 yrs at 18M, he declines it because the overall money is low. Using Cody Allen (who has gone year to year with contracts as an example) Allen has gone from just over 500K (pre arbit) to 4.1M (after arbit 1) to 7.35M (after arbit 2) and is projected at 10.8M (after arbit 3 for 2018). Heck, Roberto Osuna (Toronto) going into arbitration for the 1st time this off season is projected to be over 5M. Again, its a solid plan to try to sign both to extensions. I just feel the cost is going to be more than you project/ believe.
  9. MadThinker88
    I like the idea of trying to sign Nelson & Knebel to extensions but I think you are very low on the values. As examples I forward Corey Kluber & Carlos Carassco. Both signed extensions effective the 2015 season Corey signed 5 yrs/$38.5M covering the 2015 thru 2019 seasons. There are also 2 team options(20&21). If picked up the contract becomes 7 yrs/ $65M Carlos signed 4 yrs/$22M covering 2015 thru 2018 seasons. There are also 2 options (19&20). If picked up the contract becomes 6 yrs/ $44.3375M Those were deals were hammered out about 3 years ago and the players were criticized for leaving money on the table. Both players were about 27 years old when the contracts were signed. Since that time salaries have continued to go up. Now Nelson is older & currently coming back from injury. I could see him getting the Kluber type deal of 5 yr/ $37.5M (Corey's extra money being option years or buyouts). On the other hand, Knebel is watching the salaries for relievers (especially closers) EXPLODE. I doubt he signs an extension for greater than 3 yrs and at a value under $24M. A few years back Andrew Miller signed for 3 yrs/ $27M and that looks like a bargain now. Cody Allen had a salary at $7.35M (just avoiding arbitration) last year and is projected over $10M if going thru arbitration this year.
  10. MadThinker88
    The fact he would be able to swing a bat regularly might be enough of an enticement, especially since the Yankees are still looking to fill their manager and coaching slots....
  11. MadThinker88
    Interesting ripple into the discussion today. a) Logan Morrison did not get a qualifying offer. He will become more valuable to team that need power/ 1B assistance and do not want to sacrifice any draft picks or pool money. b) Carlos Santana do get a QO from the Tribe. Assuming he declines it (not a for lock he does), someone signing him would have to sacrifice draft picks/ pool money..
  12. MadThinker88
    I can't see the Yankees trading Tanaka, especially the way he pitched in the playoffs. Better question: does Tanaka opt out & if so, do the Yankees pay even more to retain him (a la ARod & CC years ago)??
  13. MadThinker88
    There is still talent in Dellin & I expect the Yanks are willing to move him if the price is correct. Highly doubt Villar would be enough. More likely you hear the click of the phone hanging up once you confirm your entire offer is Villar for Betances. I suspect the Yanks will be trying package Dellin with 1 of their bad contracts (Ellsbury/ Headley) so they can get closer to resetting their luxury tax & get ready to spend big next offseason.
  14. MadThinker88
    Maybe. Depends if he & the Crew even got in front of a arbitrator. What happens if he goes out in 2018 and messes up the shoulder? Going year to year he would not have gotten much if anything for 2019 & 2020. With the contract in place he has money levels guaranteed for those years & assuming he has decent performance those options will get picked up & he will make a lot more than $12MM over the course of the contract. This reminds me of the contract deals the Indians cut with Kluber, Carassco & Jose Ramirez. All look like major bargains at this point but the player got security in case of injury or poor performance.
  15. MadThinker88
    Hold on. Counsell is well deserving of the honor & I tip my cap to him. That said, there are other well deserving candidates in the NL & I suspect 1 of them will get the Baseball Writer award for NL Manager of the year. Was anyone expecting Bud Black (in Colorado, 75-87 in '16) & Torey Lovullo (in Arizona, 69-93 in '16) to lead their respective clubs to the post-season in their first season? I know many publications were not expecting that. I checked the mags I still have here (Athlon Sports, Lindy' Sports, Sporting News) & all 3 predicted Colorado for 3rd place & Arizona for 4th place in the NL West. Although Francona got the Sporting News award for the AL, I think the Baseball Writers will go with Molitor. My guess is the Baseball Writers will go with Lovullo in the NL & the main reason for him getting it is guiding his team to the post-season. Remeber: all the ballots had to be in BEFORE any wild card games were played. This is not a knock on Counsell. Please look again at what I underlined earlier in this post if you think I am knocking Counsell.
  16. MadThinker88
    Interesting tidbit you bring up as the Indy Indians are the AAA affiliate for the Pittsburgh Pirates & have been the affiliate of the Pirates since 2005...
  17. MadThinker88
    Just because someone is under control to X date, doesn't mean a team couldn't look to cost control those arbitration years and maybe buy 1 or 2 of the initial Free Agency years. From the player perspective it guarantees the income even if they suffer a career-ending injury or their production falls off the cliff. Once the money is spent in one place, those same dollars can't be spent on another player..
  18. MadThinker88
    ??? Did you mean Kris Bryant or did mean NEXT offseason for Harper? Harper is a free agent after the 2018 season so the Cubs can't pony up a contract for him this offseason...
  19. MadThinker88
    They have also been having end of spring training exhibitions in San Antonio for the past few years with some similar success. Anyone know if they have been doing anything similar in Portland? On a side note I am surprised that MLB is not looking to put a major league team in Charlotte. City/ Area has grown immensely since the last round of expansion....
  20. MadThinker88
    I was curious on how Las Vegas was compared to the rest of the PCL regarding the impact/ favoring of offense. A google turned up the attached article which was a nice read. https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-triple-a-ballpark-factors/c-208823408?tid=185364810 Now I realize that the ballpark itself plays an impact so assuming there are some differences between the new park being built & the current one, it will be interesting to see if the Vegas rank improves/ gets worse/ remains the same.
  21. MadThinker88
    Thank you for a piece of good news on this dreary day after the Evil Empire took out my Tribe last night...
  22. MadThinker88
    ACab is nothing like the player he was when he came up with Seattle & Cleveland. You have a better chance of Villar rebounding than ACab putting up good numbers and good D (at 2B).. I would locate a different option to pursue..
  23. MadThinker88
    Your absolutely right on that. Don't know why I read the article and believed it said Reno...
  24. MadThinker88
    Looks like the Crew has some money it can go spend. I trust DS will make some wise purchases & move that number up...
  25. MadThinker88
    FYI... Announced today https://www.milb.com/milb/news/new-york-mets-to-purchase-triple-a-syracuse-chiefs/c-258019052 The above article means Reno will be open come 2019 & Washington will be looking for a place in '19 as well..
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