paul253
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Everything posted by paul253
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I feel I need to be fair to DirecTV here. I've been their loudest critic on this thread, and I think they've all been fair complaints. Well anyway my reception went out yet again today. I've pretty much been ignoring the outages lately because I'm resigned to the fact that they won't fix it unless I pay them $50. Anyway I decided to call today because I had another question for them anyway. I don't know how it happened but somehow I was immediately connected to the Customer Retention Department. Before I even got to the reason I called the lady told me I qualified as some sort of long term customer or whatever they called it and I was eligible for $35 dollar off my monthly bill for the next year and $15 off for 3 months after that. I asked her what I had to do and she said nothing. I didn't have to resign my contract or anything. Then when I told her that my reception was out again and that I've always been told I had to pay a $50 service charge for them to come and adjust my dish she said "No I can do that for free". I was floored. I've been told over and over and over again that I had to pay them to fix what I considered their mistake (since I've never even touched my dish) and here she says without me having to debate that they'll fix it for free. She also said that if/when I move they'll move all of my equipment for free. My entire perception of DirecTV changed today, though I am still a little annoyed it took this long to get someone to agree to readjust my dish for free. And for the record, I also asked about Fox Sports 1. She didn't have any details but made it sound like they were negotiating to get it and she believes it will be included on the standard sports package. Certainly not a definitive answer but it's nice to know that they are trying to get it right away.
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I think Corey Hart ends up signing a one year deal with Milwaukee. They'll still need a first basemen as I doubt Hunter Morris will be ready. On a side note the Brewers completely screwed up the Corey Hart situation. He should have been traded for pitching years ago.
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I would trade Gallardo for Olt, Perez and Grimm. The Brewers need to take chances on high ceiling players and Perez and Olt both fit that mold. We have no long term solution at third base and really no long term solution at first either (unless you count Morris) and Olt could fit either position. With the $24 million you save on Yo's contract you could probably sign a free agent pitcher like Tim Hudson to a 2 year deal. Obtaining Olt would also make Ramirez expendable and you could trade him for a pitching prospect like Zach Lee.
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Well at the end of the day it doesn't matter what WE think and it doesn't matter what DM thinks. It's all in Mark A.'s hands Maybe so, but Doug Melvin is still the GM and he should be in Mark's ear telling him "look if you want the team to succeed in the near future this is what you need to do". I'm getting more and more irritated at Mark as he is treating Brewers fan like how Kohl is treating Bucks fans. Kohl thinks he can throw out some team that lands in the 7-10 spot in the East, maybe make the playoffs every now and then, and the fans will accept that as good enough. It seems like Mark is acting as though "competing" for a wild card spot each year is good enough. Or that the token free agent signing will get us excited. Don't get me wrong I was excited over the Greinke and Marcum moves from a few years ago. But that time has come and gone and we are now witnessing the downside of the trades. I'd rather a slow, steady incline that we can support over 5-6 years than a rapid incline for a year followed by a drastic decline like we've been seeing. I think most fans feel the same way.
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Why not shoot for the sky and offer Gallardo and Gomez for Olt, Profar and Perez? I know it sounds like a lot to ask for but the fact is Olt is really struggling in AAA and Profar is having a so-so year. Gomez's value will never be higher and Gallardo seems to have found something in the past few starts. It would take care of both of Texas' needs and get us three high ceiling prospects, all of whom are ML ready if need be. Perez has struggled pretty bad in the majors but just turned 22 and is killing it AAA this year. Assuming this move is made, the Brewers could also trade Ramirez or Weeks for pitching. If you trade Ramirez Olt could go to first and Profar could play third. If you move Weeks you have all sorts of options. Segura to 2nd Profar to SS. Profar to third Olt to first. Olt to third Profar to CF. Olt and Profar in Nashville the rest of the season and sort it out later. I think that's the kind of deal Melvin should shoot for.
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I'm not sure how I feel about Gallo. He's got tremendous power but he strikes out almost every other at bat. And he is still a LONG ways away. He'd easily be our best third base prospect (that doesn't really say much) but if I am going to trade for a third basemen I'd prefer one who could replace Ramirez in 2015, or even 2014 with Ramirez moving to first base.
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If I'm giving up Gallardo AND Aoki I'd want Olt, Grimm and Perez. Olt immediately takes over 1st base (or third base if you trade Ramirez) and Grimm can be put in the rotation right away. Grimm seems like he could be a serviceable #4-#5 type. Perez could either be a huge hit or a huge miss. But his ceiling seems to be pretty high at least.
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Does anyone know anything about this site? The writer just seems to be looking at this year's stats to determine who the Brewers should trade for. Don't get me wrong I like the idea of moving Ramirez, Weeks, Hart, Gonzalez, Lohse, and KRod, and I'd add Axford and Henderson as well. I'm just not sure looking at one year's statistics, especially for guys who don't even rank in their organization's top 15, is a good way to evaluate prospects.
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Forget about Morris for a minute. Why not give Sean Halton a shot?
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I like Hanson but if the Brewers are going to make a trade with Pitt I'd like to see them go for Heredia. He's still young but Milwaukee desperately needs to upgrade their pitching prospects. I'd definitely settle for Hanson though. I wonder if Pitt is looking for an upgrade at 3B. Alvarez has 14 HR and 38 rbi but is only hitting .214 with a .281 OBP. Ramirez, Gindl and $10 million for Heredia and Hansen? These two would immediately become top 5 prospects, maybe top three prospects along with Nelson.
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Unless you see the picture being sold online or something I'm not sure the police are the best option. The whole criminal aspect, which is what they deal with, requires them to prove that the picture was stolen before they can do anything about it. If the pic cannot be located it is going to be hard to prove that the framer guy actually stole it. What would happen if the police even responded is that you are going to say you dropped it off and he is going to say he gave it back. They'll have zero evidence to actually do anything about it unless, like I said, you see the picture being sold. I think a much more effective strategy would be to contact a lawyer and go about this civilly. Essentially, sue the guy.
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Rams' Quick and Dirty Top 50 Update
paul253 replied to ramssuperbowl1999's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Assuming they sign, do Williams and Neuhaus fit into the top 10? -
MLB should change the rule so that a HS can declare for the draft, get drafted and still go to college. However the MLB team would retain his rights for a certain amount of time (say 6 years). Kind of like how the NHL does it. In my opinion there is so much wrong with the MLB draft. The bonus pool alone doesn't solve anything really.
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It's different in baseball than most other sports. Are there any other sports where a team loses a draft pick if they sign a certain free agent? Can you imagine how pissed people would be if the Brewers traded, say, Ramirez to the Yankees for a first round draft pick and then the Yankees sign a player who turned down a QO and lose their first round pick? Then what? I think what could work would be to allow the trading of picks on draft day. It would have to come with the stipulation that the bonus pool remains unchanged. Right now teams are avoiding drafting the best players anyway because they want save money to help sign another pick. So instead of, for instance, the Royals taking a "signable" player with the #8 pick instead of taking the best player available, let them trade that #8 pick for either additional picks or a prospect and then they can draft that same player 20 spots lower where he should have been drafted in the first place. Meanwhile, if the good teams want to trade up they still have the same bonus pool to work around.
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Your Milwaukee Brewers 5-season plan
paul253 replied to TooLiveBrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If the Brewers truly are looking ahead 2 to 3 seasons now would be the ideal time to trade Gomez. He'll be 28 at the beginning of next season and 29 the year after that. That means if the Brewers are looking towards 2016 you'll have a 30 year old centerfielder making $8 million. If they trade Gomez now you'll have 2 years to evaluate Logan Schafer. If he fails miserably you can always move Aoki to CF. They also have guys like Caleb Gindl, Kentrail and Khris Davis, maybe even Mitch Haniger to try out in the meantime. Braun obviously isn't going anywhere. Aoki could be traded but with his age and lack of power he may not bring much back. If you are looking to rebuild you trade your valuable pieces and right now Gomez is one of those pieces. If the Brewers still believe they can win with what they have then obviously you keep Gomez. It'll be interesting to see what happens this season considering Ramirez, Gomez, and Gallardo should be able to bring back a lot in return but in trading them you obviously give up on the next year or two. -
It isn't like they just open up the money truck and give every player with a year of success whatever they want. They target a player and offer what is a lower than market offer if they continue to produce. IF they continue to produce. That's been the problem with Melvin. He seems to be offering a lot of multi-year deals to players who don't continue to produce. Can you imagine how far back the franchise would have been set had Casey McGehee accepted the long term offer? Or John Axford? Rickie Weeks contract is looking like a killer. Corey Hart's trade value in the final year of his contract is next to nothing. And who knows, even Gallardo is struggling mightily this year with 2 more years on his deal. In his defense the Braun deal looks solid. But Braun is a once in a generation type player and they was little risk in that one. And the Lucroy deal seems ok. The key will be what to do with Lucroy when his current contract is up. The Gomez deal is too early to judge.
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We are far from a perfect franchise but we are nowhere near as bad as people want to make it out to be either. I disagree. I am looking less at individual moves and more so the trends under Melvin. To me the four most troubling trends are: 1) The complete inability to draft quality pitchers 2) The over-reliance on certain guys which leads to multiple long term deals 3) And as a result of #2 the fact the young players rarely get a chance to prove themselves 4) Melvin's unwillingness to move guys when their value is at it's peak. I'm not saying trade everyone when their value goes up but you don't need to offer every single player a long term deal after one or two good seasons.
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Your Milwaukee Brewers 5-season plan
paul253 replied to TooLiveBrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Schafer is not near Gomez' OPS and Gomez is a really strong defender. Logan is just now getting his bearings...maybe. Gomez' OPS is about 150 points higher than last season and .234 points higher than his career average. I'd like to see him keep it up over a full season, maybe even two, before I believe it's anything other than an anomaly. And since Schafer has been relegated to pinch hit duty most of year I think he is quite capable of doing better. He is also quite capable out there in center. I say if a good offer comes up for Gomez you take it. His value may not get any higher. -
Odds are, the Brewers would have gotten a lot less in value for him than what he's produced to date. My plan for Gomez would have been let his contract play out. After this year you either offer him a multi-year deal, offer him a QO or let him walk. I thought the most likely would have been the QO. He may have accepted but he also may have been looking for a multi-year deal worth more total money. Obviously we'll have to wait til the season ends but I would not be surprised in the least bit to see his numbers somewhere around .280 with a .320 OBP when the season ends. Not bad but certainly replaceable. Maybe I'm wrong. I am certainly not rooting against him. I just think this is one part of a bad strategy by Melvin. He has been pretty successful at developing position players but unless they are can't miss guys (Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart) or there are no alternatives (Lucroy, Hardy) they never seem to be given a legitimate chance to succeed. Green, Gamel, Schafer. Quite possibly Gennett and Khris Davis. Melvin would rather spend millions of dollars signing players to multiple long term deals then to trade them when their value is high and let a younger player get an extended opportunity. Then we get stuck with bad players with bad contracts like Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks (and thank god Casey McGehee said no).
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I don't see how keeping one of their best players on an affordable contract is any kind of issue. If they had traded Gomez in the offseason for a solid, but unremarkable starter, we'd all be kicking Melvin for trading a budding star for a run of the mill player. Last year Carlos Gomez hit .260 with a .305 OBP and those were both career highs (in 5 seasons with at least 230 at bats). You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I don't consider him one of our best players, offensively at least (I think Braun, Lucroy, Segura, Ramirez and Hart are all better offensively). Maybe he keeps up the .300 BA and .360+ OBP this year. Only time will tell. But I think Logan Schafer, who is no slouch in CF, could hit for a higher average and get on base at a higher rate if given the chance. And if he doesn't Aoki can play center with someone like Khris Davis or Caleb Gindl playing RF. And Melvin didn't sign to him a 4 year contract to trade him half way through the first year. Like I said I just think he is overvaluing the home run numbers here. You have a guy who had 5 years to prove himself and didn't really do anything. I just don't understand the need to offer him a 4 year contract.
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The Brewers don't need a complete tear down. What they need to do is stop relying on certain players for so long. Guys I am thinking of specifically are Rickie Weeks, Carlos Gomez, and Corey Hart. Corey Hart should have been traded years ago. I like him. He's a good player. But the time comes for every player. We could have gotten a very good prospect for him a few years ago. Now the best we can hope for is that he turns down a QO and we end up with a comp pick somewhere in the 30s. Weeks and Gomez too. The Brewers completely over-value power. Weeks is a career .248 hitter yet for some reason Melvin threw close to $40 million at him because he hits home runs. His defense is average at best and his OBP has been declining 4 years straight now but we are stuck with him. Gomez has all the potential in the world but outside of power and defense he is average. He doesn't hit for average or get on base But again, he can hit home runs so Melvin throws a multi-year, multi-million contract at him. Carlos Gomez could have easily been replaced by Logan Schafer if he had left. Rickie Weeks can be replaced by Scooter Gennett. Hart, back when he had trade value, could have been replaced by Gamel. Taylor Green was coming off a very good season in Nashville in 2011 but was never even given a chance to win the third base spot. What the Brewers need to do is stop pissing away so much money and use your system to replenish your team. Not everyone has to be a 20 home run guy. It's ok to have some role players. Then the money that is freed up can be spent on pitching or even on international free agents. I think if the Brewers stop overspending on free agents, including their own, and start drafting better, they'll be fine. They don't need to trade Braun.
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Or put, what happens to the ML guys our upper AAA guys are going to need to take over. All the pitching coming in. Do we set guys back down to AA? This would fall in regard to these pitchers: Estrada, Fiers, Narveson, Rogers, Burgos, Thornburg, Hellweg, and progression forward: Nelson, Jungmann, Pena? Well Rogers is hurt and will probably never pitch for Milwaukee again. So cross him off the list. Jungmann and Pena can stay in Huntsville all year. Hellweg and Thornburg should be starting in Nashville the rest of the year but we all know that at some point they will get called up so they can sit around in the bullpen. When Burgos gets off the DL he can go back to Nashville. Nelson can stay in Nashville. So I think it lines up like this the rest of the year. Huntsville: Jungmann, Pena Nashville: Thornburg, Hellweg, Nelson, Burgos, Fiers Milwaukee: Narveson, Estrada, Peralta Next year depends on who stays and who goes. My guess is that it will line up something like this: Milwaukee: Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada, Peralta, Burgos Milwaukee bullpen: Narveson, Fiers Nashville: Thornburg, Hellweg, Nelson, Jungmann, Pena
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I think if the Brewers moved Lohse, Ramirez, Henderson, and Gonzalez/Gorzelany they could both dramatically improve their minor leagues and not set the franchise back too long. They'd also save a ton of money.

