82brewcrew82
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Everything posted by 82brewcrew82
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Source? The only thing I've seen is a report out of Japan that was repeated by others. Which probably means it was put out by team Darvish to drive up his price and not by the Brewers. One can claim that Hardricout is doubling down on an old quote from Stearns but that old quote is more solid than anything I have seen on Darvish getting an offer from the Brewers. Rosenthal's about as pro as you get and I don't believe he'd say confirmed if he wasn't sure that his source was correct before tweeting this. All of these guys are trying to be as pro as it gets. But they get fed false information all the time. Heck, Crasnick walked his back after having two sources yesterday.
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I'm stunned.
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Source? The only thing I've seen is a report out of Japan that was repeated by others. Which probably means it was put out by team Darvish to drive up his price and not by the Brewers. One can claim that Hardricout is doubling down on an old quote from Stearns but that old quote is more solid than anything I have seen on Darvish getting an offer from the Brewers.
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I was imagining all of the tangled web being more along the lines of Stearns saying, "If I can shore up the rotation, then I'll go all in and trade one or more of Santana/Shaw/Brinson/Top 10 prospects. If not, we're going to be more conservative with in-house development for this offseason." Which makes sense in a more methodical sense. What doesn't make sense is lining up trades since November to that end. That suggests a much more deliberate approach.
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Do we know that they have made offers to Arrieta and Darvish? The only person reporting that several trades are set up is HH19 so, again, you are making an assumption here. I'm guessing there are literally hundreds of reports of teams checking in on players and I'd even say it's likely that most teams check in on quite a few free agents, this isn't news. So yeah, in my opinion, this adds up to a whole lot of nothing.
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Darvish isn't coming to Milwaukee, he never was. Gammons and Hardricourt have both reported that a "big splash" with regard to starting pitching is unlikely. Crasnick has walked back the "trade" rumors significantly so I'm guessing he got information to the contrary as well. I'm sure Stearns is working every angle he can but that is nothing different than what any other GM is doing. I'm hope I'm wrong but the more I see/read the more this stinks of a big nothing burger.
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The Brewers apparently have been putting multiple semi agreed upon trades in place since November and are playing their own hardball. This is to give the power back to Stearns. The Brewers have literally set up enough scenarios with multiple teams to fill any position deemed necessary to fill the void of the big trade. Apparently letting agents know that your free agent maybe of interest, but your going to play our game and not yours cause we have another avenue. That sure sounds like it is being implied that this was an intentional plan since November.
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What doesn't make sense? The possibility of a Darvish signing and the trade scenarios are completely different transactions and seem to not hinge on each other. HighHeat19 has been pretty clear on that. He has also broken some "news" on the Darvish situation as well. From the sounds of it, he's just reporting from his source(s) that he has and let us know what he can for the time being. I'd really hate if we push that type of reporting away from our forum because we don't take it for what it is. So you're buying that back in November that Stearns would weave this web of trades knowing that it all would hinge on "trade a" in late January? You're buying that back in November Stearns wove this web of trades because he knew that in late January there would still be an unlikely number of high end free agents still available and that he would need to leverage this web of trades? You're buying that Stearns has all these trades lined up and all these GM's are just standing pat waiting for the Brewers to decide what the market is going to do? It's not personal and I would never discourage anyone from posting insider info. I have absolutely nothing against HH19 and, as I said, I'll eat crow if I'm wrong. I'm perfectly willing to admit that I'm thick in the head and am just missing something here but, in my opinion, it just doesn't add up. I would hope that cordial disagreement would not discourage HH19 but if universal acceptance of his word is what is required then I'm not on board.
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I'm sorry and if HH19 ends up being correct then I'll eat crow but none of this makes sense to me.
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HH19 has been pretty clear that move A is a trade, not a signing and that Darvish is not a factor.
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Who says we can't do both? No one. But it doesn't seem like something the Brewers would/could do. That's the old Brewers. I think they have the financial strength, the prospect strength and the fortitude strength to pull that off if they really wanted to. Don't underestimate the owners desire to win.
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Honestly, I'm not seeing the smoke.
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I think it makes sense of the entire offseason. Let's say for example TRADE A (HH's term) falls apart and it involves a 2B, the Brewers likely turnaround and sign Walker/Nunez. Similarly, if the trade involves an SP and it falls apart, the Brewers turnaround and sign Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn. Honestly, the only guy that doesn't make sense to me was Moustakas given Shaw's presence. I just don't see the Brewers dealing Shaw in any scenario that doesn't include them overwhelmingly winning that deal. They could move Shaw to first. Cut or trade Aguilar and keep Thames as back up in LF (maybe RF) and 1B in addition to a nice bench bat.
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I'm willing to believe HH19 but this seems so fantastical. It literally says "anything could happen" which isn't all that predictive to begin with. Never mind the intricacies of putting a web of trades together that has to change every time a trade is made or a free agent is signed and the opposing teams needs/wants change. I've seen a trade lead to another trade but I've never seen anything like the domino effect that is being implied here. Trade A must be an absolute blockbuster or this just doesn't make any sense.
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As of five minutes ago his Crasnicks twitter seems to be throwing cold water over the whole idea.
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If it's true there are dominoes involved and it's a one time deal, I won't get my hopes up for anything to happen. We're the Brewers, we're destined for disappointment. the sky is falling? this is an exciting time, I don't know how those kind of negative thoughts can even be floating around in your head today! Realism, not negativity. If all the other deals hinge on another deal happening first there has to be a certain amount of risk associated with the first thing. Of course that assumes that any of this is actually real though HH19 his given it all some credibility. Sounds like thing A is the determining factor in whether the Brewers "go all in" this year or not. If thing A doesn't happen, they hold course and that could be the likely scenario.
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How likely is A to NOT happen? If it were not likely, would they go through the trouble of lining up multiple other moves based on that first move?
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I agree in that I'd take as many top 100 prospects as I can get over a couple of top 20 prospects. How much difference is there really between 50 and 75 in the rankings?
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Great work first of all. I know there are those on this board that rely on nothing but a stat line to evaluate a prospect but this shows there is so much more data out there if your willing to look. I would have some quibbles with the rankings but that is strictly a product of my personal opinion and I understand that ranking folks under 20 years of age is a difficult task. I would say that while the luster is fading on guys like Lara and McClanahan, I think we are far from make or break on those guys. I would think both will have at least a couple of years of rope yet. I also think that what Feliciano did last year is far more impressive than folks are giving him credit for. At that age, and it's not like he DH'd ever other game, he more than hung with the competition. He'd be a clear number one for me all things considered.
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Fangraphs Top 30 Brewer Prospects
82brewcrew82 replied to homer's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
It's really not a bad comp at all and you're really not portraying the context correctly. What they are saying is that Harrison has a similar statistical profile as Craig Monroe at (generally) the same point in there careers. So yes, Monroe didn't steel many bases in the major leagues but he did steel 50 once and 40 twice (and over 20 many times) in the minor leagues while hitting a similar amount of HR's. They are not saying that the two have a similar career arch or that they are the same player or even the same style of player, just a similar statistical player profile at the same point in there careers. Same thing with Peralta. His pitching coach says he pitches between 91-95. That does not eliminate the possibility that he sits low 90's while touching 95 on occasion (as Homer mentioned). I don't see that as out of line with what FG reported. Frankly, this article is far from the first to suggest that Peralta sits in the low 90's. -
A few thoughts: 1) Not sure they would need all four of those guys. Seems to me that two of the four would put this team in the thick of it. 2) In looking at that roster I still feel like we need another bullpen arm 3) In looking at that roster they have to trade an OF, don't they? 4) Indeed, Domingo Santa would be an instant fan favorite, make it happen!
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Maitan is beginning to sound like a more hyped version of Gilbert Lara. Not against adding him but it sure seems like he is heading down a similar path.
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2017 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
82brewcrew82 replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
[sarcasm]Oh come now. You know darn good and well that all prospect development is perfectly linear and that you can get all the information you need with a quick glance at baseball reference.[/sarcasm] -
How Do We Feel About Phil Bickford At This Point?
82brewcrew82 replied to sheetskout's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
To state that a player could contribute or could wash out is a statement that applies to literally every single player in the system. In other words, that is not really making any statement at all. If you look at the numbers through the end of last season he is a top ten org. player with no question. Honestly, I'm not all that worried about a player getting popped for weed. Its not my thing but I'd like to think I'm educated enough to understand the difference between weed and meth. I am worried about a guy that doesn't have the discipline to do what he has to do to succeed regardless of whether you agree with the legal status of marijuana. If you want to ding him for his perceived lack of dedication, I understand. I just don't know that there are all that many pitchers in the org. that are genuinely more talented than Bickford. Based on pedigree alone he has a far better shot making the majors than any mid-round pick with a modicum of success in the low minors. -
I see this guy on Twitter. Who is he outside of a guy who spends a ton of ti,e at ball fields in AZ. He always sounds like he knows what he's talking about, but that's easy to do if you know some lingo and cliches. I was thinking the same. He can say the right words but his evaluations seem to be pretty contrary.