Lathund
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Everything posted by Lathund
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Indeed. deGrom has a 25-19 record over the last three years. With averaging 6.5 innings per start with a 2.10 ERA. So pitching really well but getting no run support = a deGrom. I like Jimmy and want him to have success. I don't like the Dodgers. I mostly don't want them to beat the Brewers though, I'm good if Jimmy and the Dodgers stomp the Cubs...
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Spring Training Battle: 3B (and SS and UT)
Lathund replied to brewerfan82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Perez was a useful player for a time with his positional versatility, a good utility man is often a good thing for teams to have. But he was never an above average hitter, not even close. -
DL might buy them a bit of time, but I don't see how Nottingham fits on the roster. I doubt they'll run with 3 catchers, and I don't really think Nottingham has the bat to play 1B really. Remains to be seen if there will be a trade, or if they'll try to sneak him through waivers.
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I hope Jimmy pitches really well, but gets deGrom'd.
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Yeah it's hard to see how they could keep Vogelbach and Fisher both. I really am curious to see where Fisher ends up, because while I'm sure they didn't give up a lot for Fisher, they still did trade for him. And they would surely have been in on JBJ at that time as well. They probably didn't trade for him intending to DFA him, so there has to be some kind of plan. With 4 established OFs already who will be getting a lot of playing time, a 5th OF-only player seems like poor use of a roster spot. Besides Fisher, there's also Nottingham, McKinney, Black who are on the 40-man and out of options (Piña too, but I think he's safe). We'll have to see if there will be some minor trades, or a DFA wave at the end of camp. And who ultimately makes it.
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If we went by Cubs fans evaluations of Brewers rosters and moves, Brewers would've averaged about 65 wins per year from 2017-2020.
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I don't like the eidea of both Wong and Cain at the top; Have one high-OBP but overall average-ish hitter at the top, not two IMO.
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Murray reporting the same thing now
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Murray reporting the same thing now
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He is still retweeting this. Guy seems to be a Red Sox beat writer with the Boston Globe. Like there is no doubt this makes the team better. I think it'll mostly be a "double platoon" type of thing where JBJ will essentially platoon with both Cain and Garcia against righties, occasionally spells Yelich when he needs a day off. Double switches, injuries, suspensions, 10 DH games etc. Plenty of plate appearances to go around to essentially have 4 "starters" and have them all play a lot. But if there was money available, a glove-first OF seems an odd way to spend it. Though I suppose if this was the Turner money, there's not a lot else (Odorizzi maybe, but he seems to want more years) to spend at this point of the offseason. But it's a multi-year deal (Based on the tweet I presume it's 1 year + player option for a total maximum of $24m) so it's not purely a Grandal/Moose type signing either.
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He is still retweeting this. Guy seems to be a Red Sox beat writer with the Boston Globe. Like there is no doubt this makes the team better. I think it'll mostly be a "double platoon" type of thing where JBJ will essentially platoon with both Cain and Garcia against righties, occasionally spells Yelich when he needs a day off. Double switches, injuries, suspensions, 10 DH games etc. Plenty of plate appearances to go around to essentially have 4 "starters" and have them all play a lot. But if there was money available, a glove-first OF seems an odd way to spend it. Though I suppose if this was the Turner money, there's not a lot else (Odorizzi maybe, but he seems to want more years) to spend at this point of the offseason. But it's a multi-year deal (Based on the tweet I presume it's 1 year + player option for a total maximum of $24m) so it's not purely a Grandal/Moose type signing either.
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Yeah to me Lindblom looked fine after the initial adjustment period. The metrics agree with the eye test on that too. Can look at the basic stuff like FIP (3.88) or at statcast metrics where he was solidly above average in almost every category, good at limiting both hard contact and at inducing whiffs. I expect him to be a solid #4-5 type who costs almost nothing and seems like a great clubhouse guy. In a season where SP depth is going to be more important than ever, there's absolutely no reason to "cut our losses" at this stage.
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Yeah to me Lindblom looked fine after the initial adjustment period. The metrics agree with the eye test on that too. Can look at the basic stuff like FIP (3.88) or at statcast metrics where he was solidly above average in almost every category, good at limiting both hard contact and at inducing whiffs. I expect him to be a solid #4-5 type who costs almost nothing and seems like a great clubhouse guy. In a season where SP depth is going to be more important than ever, there's absolutely no reason to "cut our losses" at this stage.
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I don't think you even could have traded Hader for a haul much earlier, because he'd simply be too valuable with 4-4½ years of service time. There's a limit to how much a team is ever going to offer for a reliever, even an extremely good one, because there's just so much risk involved in it. It's probably still a factor in why he hasn't been traded yet. Logically it might not make much sense, but when you factor in some human psychology and risk aversion it starts making more sense; trading the farm for a reliever is a risky proposition that might stick with a GM for a long time or even play a part in losing the job. Trading less of the farm for 2 years of the same reliever instead of 4 is a safer proposition, even if it's worse. You take away the extreme outcomes. Basically what I'm trying to get at is that you're not going to get twice as much for 1 year of a reliever as you are for ½, or twice as much for 2 years as for one, or for 4 years vs 2 etc. Teams are very willing to pay for the immediate here and now production of a reliever, but want to pay for the future production (and risk) at a discount. Now I'm still very much in the camp that the Brewers should have tried hard to trade Hader this winter if not before anyway. I think that David Stearns is also of the same mindset in that regard (Hence all the rumours of trades over the last year and a half; no smoke without fire), but that there simply hasn't been anything remotely acceptable offered. I think teams are getting wiser to paying absolute top dollar (or top prospects) for relievers.
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Ashbys breaking stuff has gotten good reviews from the alternate site, and I could see why. Will get a lot of swings and misses on that.
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Spring Training Battle: 3B (and SS and UT)
Lathund replied to brewerfan82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yeah Shaw is a good defender at both 3B and 1B. I think that unless Shaw looks terrible in ST, he'll be the primary 3B. I expect Urias will win the SS job and probably play the occasional 2B against lefties too. Robertson/Arcia will do some platooning at 3B, but will also together be the 5th OF when Brewers run only 4 "proper" OFs. This to be able to keep Vogelbach if he looks decent, and/or fit another pitcher onto the roster. -
Yeah I think most of the 'pen is fairly set. Williams, Hader obviously. Topa and Rasmussen seem very likely to me. Then there's the 3 who miss out on the rotation; Suter, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Lindblom in order of likelyhood of getting into the pen IMO. I think Black and Boxberger have a good chance by virtue of not being optionable, while Perdomo, Wahl, Feyereisen and Bickford have options remaining. I think they'll keep Bettinger stretched out in AAA.
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Maile is almost guaranteed to be on the roster because he has a minor league option. Nottingham (and Piña) don't, so it's highly unlikely both will be on the roster to start the year.
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Teams obviously look more at those numbers than they do things like ERA, wins or saves, but they look at a lot more than that. They also don't read too much into 19 innings. Thing with Hader is that he had that 5 walk game against the Pirates, that accounted for half his walks and a quarter of runs given up. It's not as if he generally started giving up more walks; he didn't walk a single batter in the 11 games he had after that Pirates game. So whatever was up with him that one game is something that has not been an issue at any other point in his career. Batters were .123/.269/.292 against him even with that game included. His Statcast page looks like this. Point is, don't read too much into FIP in 19 innings. So yeah, I think he's still viewed as an elite reliever by most of the league. More importantly than that though, is that he's probably the best *available* reliever, which is the key. A team might want Chapman or Hendriks more, but they can't have them. So if you're going all in for the next couple of years like SD, and the bullpen is the worst (Still pretty good, but not elite) area of your team, Hader makes a ton of sense. All that being said, he won't get anywhere near the kind of return most people think, simply because relievers just aren't that valuable. Chapman was an overpay, and rental relievers haven't gotten that kind of return since, and it's 5 years ago now.
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Red Sox acquire Bryant from Cubs Details in the tweet.
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Versatility helps roster construction, might allow them to keep bats with inconvenient positional fits, or to run with a 4-man bench to fit another pitcher in. Like if they want to keep Vogelbach and have that extra pitcher, then you'd only run with one pure OF on the bench and would need the bench guys to be capable of playing there too. They want to see what Urias can do at SS, and while he's there why not see if Arcia can handle other spots? I really don't get how it's "insulting" to do so. I do think he's too slow to be a good CF, but no harm giving it a try in ST.
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Freddy Peralta being stretched out as a starter?
Lathund replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
2021 will be a unique year, even more starters (Or "bulk pitchers" of some kind) than usual will be needed. A stretched out starter can go to the bullpen and be effective almost immediately, it's harder to do it the other way around. Which is why Peralta, Suter, maybe even Rasmussen, will at least be somewhat stretched out for the start of the season. Injuries can happen too in ST, it's not at all far fetched that Peralta might be needed as a starter even if the plan right now is to use him in relief. So best to be prepared. I would also think that if he shows better results against LHH, Brewers would still see him as a starter. Or, the way the Brewers view pitchers, as an out-getter who gets many outs in each outing. But starter or not, to solve the workload puzzles some relievers will be doing longer outings with more rest inbetween, Peralta being one of the obvious choices to do so. -
To add to the above, as it doesn't inclde framing; Narvaez went from one of the worst, to the very best framer in baseball in 2020. A shorter season, and seeing more of the same umpiring crews, could have an impact on that. At the same time, pitch framing is a metric that stabilizes very fast due to the sheer amount of pitches seen, so while it may very well be the case that he wasn't truly the best defensive catcher in the game, it at least tells us without a doubt he improved considerably. And framing is a coachable skill, so it's not unheard of. Contreras made a similar leap as well. Anyway, yes the Brewers are significantly improved on defense. Shaw is very much not a flashy defender, but is very effective. Cain (Even if he loses a step) and Wong are gold glovers. Piña is an excellent defender. Urias looks very good. We don't know how good Hiura will be at 1B, but with throwing being his main issue I can't imagine he'll be worse than at 2B. Either way, you have a couple of GGs in up the middle positions, while the only bad (1B) and potentially below average (LF and RF) defenders are at the three least important defensive positions.
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I don't know if a Cain trade is all that likely. Like if a team wanted to trade for Cain while taking on a good chunk of the money, wouldn't they just go sign JBJ instead? We'll have to see how serious this interest really ends up being. I suspect it's more along the lines of Moose/Grandal; we're into spring training, free agent hasn't had the market he expected, Brewers have at least some money (Or Turner wouldn't have been an option), so figure to swoop in. It *could* still mean a Cain or Garcia trade, but I also don't think you can have too may good players. Easily enough playing time to go around for Cain/Yelich/Garcia/JBJ with L/R platoons, rest days, injuries, double switches etc. This front office is all about value. If they feel like they can get a good player for less than what they reckon he's worth, they'll do it.
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Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
Lathund replied to TexasCheesehead's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Without the DH I don't think he's back, nor should he be.