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Lathund

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Everything posted by Lathund

  1. Lathund
    So the title is obviously a nod towards the Steamer projections thread and not an actual question. I posted this there as well, but figured it could use its own thread as I'm sure we all like to see positive stuff about the Brewers. In that thread I talked about Steamer, projections in general and how ZiPS and PECOTA would be interesting to follow. I also expected those systems to like the Brewers more, as they had in the past. But now with PECOTA projections out, I'm a bit surprised at how much more positive they are. Win totals are down, but that's more to do with the entire division projected at .500 or better, it's going to be a real bloodbath! https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ The interesting thing about the Brewers individual projections is that none of them seem unrealistically high. The pitching ones are, as they tend to be, fairly conservative. Interesting to see that they expect Brandon Woodruff to be our most valuable pitcher in terms of WARP. Also noteworthy that they project the Brewers to have the 2nd best defense in the majors (Behind Cleveland) in terms of FRAA. The projection for Cubs pitching made me look a bit deeper; I knew they overperformed their peripherals, but hadn't quite realised it was quite this bad, Along with having the oldest pitching staff in the majors last year, it's not surprising that it's not projected very highly. Cubs 2018 ERA-: 7th FIP-: 17th xFIP-: 23rd DRA-; 21st K-BB%: 25th (All of those non-ERA metrics are better at predicting future ERA than ERA itself is)
  2. Lathund
    The Yelich package probably had twice as much value as this package, maybe more. Well yeah, it was 5 years vs 2 years for players with not dissimilar production so twice as much value makes sense even if there are obviously other considerations in play too. But as a baseline it makes sense. Alfaro is also probably being underrated by many. It's 5 years of team control for a catcher who has a 99 OPS+ (i.e far above average for a catcher) in his first 500 PAs,
  3. Lathund
    FINALLY
  4. Lathund
    Earlier in the thread I talked about Steamer, projections in general and how ZiPS and PECOTA would be interesting to follow. I also expected those systems to like the Brewers more. But now with PECOTA projections out, I'm a bit surprised at how much more positive they are. Win totals are down, but that's more to do with the entire division projected at .500 or better, it's going to be a real bloodbath! https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ The interesting thing about the Brewers individual projections is that none of them seem unrealistically high. The pitching ones are, as they tend to be, fairly conservative. Interesting to see that they expect Brandon Woodruff to be our most valuable pitcher in terms of WARP. Also noteworthy that they project the Brewers to have the 2nd best defense in the majors (Behind Cleveland) in terms of FRAA.
  5. Lathund
    I'd be very happy to buy out a year or two of free agency, and having some more cost certainty (And likely savings) during the arb years. Shaw is a really good hitter, fundamentally sound. I expect him to be even better next year. In 2018 he cut his K rate by 4%, upped walk rate by 3%, maintained the exact same .ISO, swung at more pitches inside the zone and fewer outside of it. Basically, he was a much better hitter, but got BABIPd (.242 in 2018, averaged just above .300 in previous years). Good defender at 3rd and 1st, and doesn't embarrass himself at 2nd. He just strikes me as a fundamentally sound player who will be useful for a long time. I'd prefer a shorter deal than what clancy is proposing, but at the same time that AAV is low enough that I'm not overly concerned with the years due to the discount early on.
  6. Lathund
    Will be really interesting to see what Miley does going forward. Miley in 2017: 128 ERA-, 106 xFIP- Miley in 2018: 63 ERA-, 106 xFIP- On the one hand he did revamp his pitch arsenal completely. and with the way he used his Cutter and the weak groundballs it kept inducing you see just the results exceeded the peripherals, and how he'd be the type of pitcher to exceed his xFIP. But at the same time, K/BB ratio (Which is what accounts for most of xFIP) is an excellent predictor of future results, and if you have a 5.6 K/9 and 3 BB/9 you don't have any margin of error. Get hit slightly harder, have some bad BABIP luck, and it can get ugly quickly. I keep flip-flopping back and forth between how this will last (even if it'll be more like mid 3s ERA) or will crash and burn.
  7. Lathund
    Besides the moose trade, has this guy broken anything? Wind. Source??!?
  8. Lathund
    If the Brewers had a starter who pitched as well 3rd time through the order as he did the 2nd, they'd let that guy pitch longer, I'm sure of it. Counsell alluded to as much himself at one point, talking about how you do the most with what you've got. Compared it to the early 2000s Diamondbacks which Counsell was on, where they had Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson who you'd certainly use quite differently than what the Brewers did in 2018. The quick hooks are a way to avoid a specific issue, the weakness third time through the order that many (or even most) starters have. If that weakness isn't there, then there's less need for them. Having one or two spots in the rotation being guys who can go deep into games just makes the other rotation spots stronger, allowing you to use the bullpen more efficiently and more aggressively on those days. I imagine that even if Keuchel or Nelson or someone else turns out to be a real workhorse we still won't see a ton of 110+ pitch games or a 220 IP season, but they'll get a longer leash than the guys had in 2018.
  9. Lathund
    The man himself says the changes aren't massive. Which is probably good.
  10. Lathund
    Arrieta was just one of the free agent pitchers available though. Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn wouldn't have done anything to improve our chances, and while it's easy to judge in hindsight it's not as if it was obvious who would or wouldn't have performed well. And while playoff experience and all that might matter, it's not like Arrieta was all that great. Philly defense didn't help, but his ERA and FIP were very similar to the Brewers starters overall. Also consider how $25m for Arrieta would have impacted the ability to make additions at 2B and C this year. I'm fine with what we have at 2B while awaiting Hiura and Dubon, though I wouldn't mind a Marwin Gonzalez as he'll be useful all over. When we have our top prospect almost ready at a position, I'd generally prefer to spend money elsewhere. And to get someone who we could be fairly sure would be a big improvement over the current options + Hiura it would have cost a decent amount. Murphy and DJ got 2/24, Dozier 1/9. I think spending the money we have to spend on Grandal and hopefully a pitcher of some kind improves us more.
  11. Lathund
    I don't think we should read too much into this. It's just a deal to buy out his arbitration years (And one pre-arb year); for Merrifield it gives financial security, no risk of being non-tendered if his performance falls off. That in exchange for giving up some money if he keeps playing the way he has so far.
  12. Lathund
    He has the mutual option if he decides he wants to give Milwaukee another go in 2020. If the 2019 Crew does well, maybe he comes back for 2020. Two years of a .850-.900 OPS and 30-35 homers could have him get a nice deal as a 1B/C/DH for an AL team. Mutual option isn't going to be exercised, no way. If Grandal does well he'll want to cash in, with no QO hanging over him and no lingering memories of his NLCS performance. He could stay with the Brewers, but if he does it'll be on a new deal.
  13. Lathund
    Yeah that worries me a bit. I'd imagine all players tinker a bit with their swing, trying different things etc, even if on a small scale, and I imagine he'll have tried to lift it more at times. If this kind of change felt natural to him, surely he'd have tried to incoporate it by now? I mean if someone can maintani their contact profile but raise their launch angle, that's nearly always a good thing. But that's not a given. An uppercut swing compared to a more level swing would usually lead to more misses. But then again we don't really know what kind of changes he's making. Could be pretty minor things, could be fixing actual flaws etc. Will be interesting to see.
  14. Lathund
    Dubon would be a decent shout to potentially be a Perez, although I still think he has a chance to stick at SS/2B. I don't see Spangenberg in that role though, as you want your super utility guy to be able to play SS, as from a roster standpoint it's likely the best way to get a backup SS on the roster while not sacrificing too much offense. I also view Marwin somewhat differently; I see him as more akin to Ben Zobrist or Chris Taylor. That is to say as a starting quality bat but with no set position, the kind of player who you plan on starting almost the majority of games even if it's in 4 different positions. Whereas Hernan Perez is someone you intend to be a bench player, who will fill in for injuries, enable double switches, act as a defensive substitute etc.
  15. Lathund
    4/$55m, with an opt-out after 3 years. 5th year is a player option for $10m or a buyout for $5m.
  16. Lathund
    Yeah the full details of the escalators and opt-outs will be interesting, as anywhere close to 5/60 would be a steal. It's more years than you'd like, but it's just a $60m dollar commitment which is nothing to the Dodgers. Despite the missed time due to injuries he's still averaged 3+ WAR per season, and is well worth taking a chance on.
  17. Lathund
    The biggest news is the contract extension. The main point of the promotion is to keep him from being poached by other teams. Rejecting approaches from other teams for what is seen as a promotion isn't a wise choice in the long run; Brewers basically had to make this move after rejecting the approach from the Giants. I mean they probably considered doing it anyway, but that sealed the deal. Remains to be seen whether it means any real change in his duties; my impression was that he basically had the same kind of control that a PBO does in other organizations. Which also brings me to the issue of PBO in general. I sort of get it when it comes to a guy like Billy Beane, a reward for long and faithful and successful service. It's a way to give a pay rise to your current guy, while still paying the next guy (initially anyway) like a normal GM by simply hiring him as a GM and not PBO. But I also don't see why this isn't abused more; assuming a club can afford a pay rise (Which they all can), why don't more clubs simply make their GM into a PBO, preventing other teams from poaching them, and making it easier to poach a succesful GM from other teams? Isn't it just a paper excercise, creating an arms race that will eventually see all clubs with a PBO, creating a level playing field again. Except with clubs already paying them more. Sort of like why no team will pay minor leaguers more, even if they get an advantage in the short term. But with executives they'e already got the ball rolling so it'll be hard to stop. Next step is to create the position of "Grand Poobah De Doink Of All This And That'
  18. Lathund
    They have Yamamoto in their feature of guys who they predict will enter the list next year. And from a chat that's currently ongoing: FWIW those guys are ranked 46, 50, 53, 54. So if he had slightly fewer days in the majors, that's where Burnes would be. N
  19. Lathund
    Fantastic news.
  20. Lathund
    Davidson, unless it turns out he can in fact pitch well too, is a RHH corner IF/DH who doesn't add anything on the bases, doesn't add anything on defense. The issue with him would be a 25-man roster spot; most pitchers are RHP, and so is it worth carrying someone to only hit against lefties, platooning in one position only? He might get, what, 250 PAs at most? From a roster fit standpoint I'll agree that Moustakas isn't an amazing option either, but his OPS overall is the same as Davidson against lefties only. And Moose is also a good defender. Worth pointing out too that Davidson only has 250 PAs against lefties too, when platoon splits in reality need a lot more than that to treat as stable. On a minor league deal? Sure, makes sense. After roster expansion someone like him would be a very sensible way to get a bit of extra offense. But for the whole year? No. I'd echo the sentiment that Gonzalez seems like the ideal addition at this point, and I hope Brewers are seriously looking at it. Either as a Perez replacement, or as a complement; with those two on the bench, you can carry whichever bat-first player you want.
  21. Lathund
    Baseball Prospectus' preseason top 101 ranking is out: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46653/2019-prospects-the-top-101/ Keston Hiura at #6 is the only Brewer on the list. Their Brewers prospect rankings should be out soon too I think.
  22. Lathund
    Beer themed name for the Brewers just made so much sense. But then again, Miller Park is also just a coporate name albeit a catchier one so it's not like I really care a whole lot. Just hoping it's a significant bump in money. I really hope you're right, and that the M and barley isn't something the club actually does on its own. Not exactly a club with a great track record of logos; they did find the best one in spots, but then moved on to some of the worst.
  23. Lathund
    I'm a big Greinke fan, would love to see him back. I don't think Brewers would be looking to take on this much money though.
  24. Lathund
    Jerry Dipoto couldn't bear seeing a trade go down that the Mariners weren't part of, so had to get involved.
  25. Lathund
    I suspect you meant to link to something else? I honestly like Keuchel, just not quite at the prices and years likely to get the deal done; just too much risk. Should definitely be someone, like with Cain and Grandal, to keep a close watch on and swoop in if the market doesn't materialize.
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