Humans Need Water

Huge fan of the Jeffress trade. Some guys are just much more comfortable in certain places and that's been the case with Jeffress in Milwaukee. Small things like this can have a huge impact on one's mentality. A place of comfort is needed for some guys to hit their potential. Additionally, as someone mentioned already, Wade Davis wasn't even a FA so how could the Brewers have signed him? He was traded for Soler. Davis is a FA after this year. Holland signed for 7M and if the option vests he'll make up to 15M next year before hitting FA (mutual option I believe). It made zero sense to offer him that. The bullpen wasn't built to compete for the division/playoff run this year. It was built to give guys an opportunity. Feliz was a good sign but it just didn't work out for whatever reason, similar to Jeffress in TX. Feliz has been plenty good in KC this year though.

I recall saying a handful of days ago that Brinson (even though it's actually Phillips because he was a lefty and already up filling in but said he should be brought up as the 4th splitting time with Brinson and backup for up Santana/Braun) can take over immediately and be an upgrade and I was met with a resounding "you don't know sheet and if the Brewers wanted someone up they'd do it already". How's that working out? Good times Broxton is an average startin CF. wRC+ only covers offense and while his defense isn't as up to par as last year he's still a strong defender and his skill set and talent are that of an average starting CF flashing better than that sporadically throughout the season

Tongue in cheek comments coming from the guy advocating letting Oakland have an open house at our prospect store for a mid-rotation starter with a ton of red flags and only 2 years of team control. We should see if they'd also want Arcia and Nelson in your prospect giveaway. How often do elite pitchers (since you seem to believe Gray is elite) get shelled when they have their A-game velocity and break on their secondary pitches? Point being nobody ever says "he could get shelled today" when speaking about the likes of Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale, Scherzer (all elite pitchers).

For starters, I agree with MrTPlush's post above. You shouldn't be counting on unproven minor leaguers as your franchises core unless maybe they are a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball, and even then I'd pause. I do agree that Arica could be considered a core player because he's finally doing it at MLB level and is controlled for quite a while. I also think that Lewis Brinson has a more than 50% chance to become a core player also. However, the way I see it: SS Orlando Arcia Best Case comp: Francisco Lindor Likely comp: Alcides Escobar Worst Case comp: Jose Iglesias 2B Keston Huira Best Case comp: Ian Kinsler Likely comp: Kolten Wong Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Scooter Gennett LHP Josh Hader Best Case comp: Chris Sale Likely comp: Drew Symly Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors as a starter/bullpen LHP RHP Corbin Burnes Best Case comp: Michael Wacha Likely comp: Jered Eickhoff Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Jed Bradley RHP Brandon Woodruff Best Case comp: Dan Straily Likely comp: Collin McHugh Worst Case comp: Doesn't make it in the majors/Cody Scarpetta We all have high hopes for these minor leaguers and I hope at least one reaches their talent ceiling (best case comp) at the Major League level as a Brewer. However, I simply would not consider Alcides Escobar, Kolten Wong, Drew Symly, Jered Eickhoff, and Colin McHugh as core players on their teams, I guess. Valuable league average regulars and mid-rotation starters, yes. Core players? not yet, at least. I appreciate the response and effort you put in but I asked for your reasoning. Not player comps. Everybody is capable of throwing out player comps, which shields them from articulating what they see/know/think about a player's skill set on both sides of the ball as well as other variables (work ethic, attitude, cultural fit, etc) For example, I'll use your likely comparison of Arcia vs Escobar but mainly focus on Arcia since he's on our team.... Arcia is head and shoulders better than Escobar. Their defense is equal enough where it'll be splitting hairs once Arcia gains experience. Offensively, in 6 of Escobar's 8 full seasons he's had a BA above 261 TWICE, an OBP above 293 TWICE, an OPS above 642 TWICE, more than 4HR in a season TWICE and his SB total has dropped off hard since 2014. Like Arcia, he's a guy who puts the ball in play so doesn't BB or K much. Arcia is 8yrs younger and already putting up what would be the best season in Escobar's career. His approach at the plate is far better than Escobar. His ability to consistently hit middle/oppo is insanely polished, especially given his age, and that is a tremendous asset for him moving toward becoming a consistent all-around hitter as he continues to physically and mentally mature. As a rookie, he's already made mechanical adjustments with his timing mechanism that allowed him to stay back more consistently and keep his bat in the zone longer barreling up the ball. He's no slouch at stealing bases and will swipe 20+ but he most likely won't be as good as Escobar in that area, however, he will hit 4x as many HR as Escobar typically hits. Nothing but positives regarding his work ethic, being a great teammate and enjoying playing the game. Arcia was a blue chip prospect at the ultimate premium defensive position and thus far in his first full season he's showing everyone why and how good he can grow to become. This is what a core player looks like (and not sure how you can say Escobar hasn't been a core player when he's been KC's starting SS for 8yrs straight including back to back WS appearances and a ring). Once Arcia taps into consistency on the offensive side he'll be a multi-time AS. Regarding the highlighted comment, none of those guys are on our team and no 2 players are exactly the same. It doesn't matter if you consider them core players on their respective teams. Put them on another team and they might be - every team is built differently. They're not the subject matter, our players are and you were asked to explain why and you couldn't so you resorted to player comps. Also, your original post stated you said Arcia/Hiura were average middle infielders and Hader/Woodruff/Burnes were back-end starters....now you're saying they're mid-rotation? Which is it....

Now, to answer the question posed in the thread. My expectations have not changed for 2018. I expect to see Broxton traded in the off-season with Brinson starting in CF but Phillips also playing a ton alongside Braun and Santana. I expect to see the same IF and catching group. I expect to see Woodruff in the rotation and Garza traded. I expect to see Hader given a shot for a rotation spot. It's up to him to stay there. Otherwise he falls back into a dominant pen role. I expect some regression from Nelson and Chase but also much improvement from Davies. Woodruff upgrades over Garza. The rotation then, overall, is upgraded from this year. The position players as a unit are upgraded as I can't see any way possible where Brinson/Phillips are worse than Broxton. Villar is talented and even decent improvement is a huge upgrade from his performance thus far. The pen needs to be shored up so I expect Stearns to focus on that by this deadline and in the off-season. 2018 is the start of us competing at a higher level than this year and I see us getting better and better with the more experience the young guys get as well as adding dudes like Burnes, Dubon, Ortiz, T.Williams, Derby, etc next season or by 2019. I expect them to stay the course but also improve in certain areas where needed (namely the pen)

Extremely short-sighted take overall and a dangerous accusation. Regarding your final point. Here's what I'll tell you about guys in their early 30s with his academic background. I'm an Executive Recruiter for a Fortune 185 company (before spinning off we were a 12B arm of a Fortune 8 company) and part of my scope involves high level analytics and strategy roles within the company working directly with our strategy, analytics, M&A leaders. I speak with guys weekly from top tier management consulting firms who have their Bachelors/Grad degrees from Harvard, MIT, Oxford, U of Chicago, Penn, Stanford, Northwestern, Berkeley, Dartmouth, Columbia, etc. These guys are no different than Stearns - and I listen to Stearns every time I can because these are the guys I enjoy speaking with most. Their personalities vary, obviously, but they're all cut from the same cloth. They're very intelligent, articulate, poised, polished and calculated. They possess a very high level of critical thinking ability. They're very hands-on; they see and understand the big picture playing an integral role in developing and mapping a strategy then navigating through obstacles to that end goal while living in the details. Stearns' age and years of experience are in the sweet spot of who I speak with (28-34yrs old with 6-10yrs of experience) and they're all making 300-600K driving strategy for Fortune 100 (and smaller) companies working directly with, and influencing, those C-level folks. Stearns does this same thing but in a different, more unique industry. Still learning the nuances of the game? How in the world has he pulled off the trades he has the past 2yrs then? Have you seen the insanely quick turnaround in performance at the MLB level as well as literally turning the farm from a bottom 5 to a top 5 in that same 2yr span? But he is still learning just like everybody else. The game changes over time, how you operate changes over time. Life experiences change over time. Name one GM who's stopped learning? But to insinuate Stearns' understanding of the nuances of the game are essentially at a below-satisfactory level is beyond insulting. He's been involved in MLB for almost a decade spending time in the Commissioner's office as well. His background is well-rounded allowing him to pull different perspectives based on his varied experiences. Not to mention he surrounded himself with a ton of front office talent who bring their perspectives and experiences. These guys don't work on an island. They're utilizing everyone and every tool at their disposal. Stearns didn't get beat. He places Quintana's value as X and offered that. The Cubs, based on reports, offered "by far and away" the best deal. These weren't the only 2 teams in the mix either. The Cubs can afford to blow up their farm as they're in a legitimate run to win back-to-back rings. The Brewers are just getting started for making consistent runs at winning the division then hopefully putting it all together during those playoff runs. Both teams are operating in different environments and will always operate in different environments unless we get a billionaire owner. Also, you're assuming the Cubs were guaranteed to stay in that same under-performing and mind set bubble from the first half. These guys have a veteran staff. They have some veteran position players. They have a lot of young talent. They just won a ring, without Quintana, so they've been in the pressure cooker. They didn't need Quintana for a mental and performance boost but clearly a talent like him will surely help in both areas. 5.5 games can be lost in the blink of an eye with a team like that in the division. If the Brewers make the playoffs then great. If the Cubs surpass them then so be it. Present day, the Brewers are in a much better long-term position than everyone in the division and that's exciting.

Buying and Selling should always be options if it makes sense in the short-term and long-term. Who would you think about selling The reliever market is insane. I'd mainly shop Knebel for someone like Juan Soto maybe Robles if the Nats are desperate enough. I think this team has a chance at the playoffs albeit small, but I just can't see a scenario where the Brewers aren't washed by the Dodgers or Nats.I'd keep Knebel but your thought process makes sense overall and I agree with it. I knew the Brewers could be a 500 area team but it's only a matter of time before the Cubs figure it out and surpass us, nobody should be shocked by that. It's about putting this team in the best position long-term to consistently compete for the division and make playoff runs. Knebel has a lot of control and Robles is an immense talent. I don't see Stearns doing it given Knebel has a lot of control and because we're close to becoming that consistent playoff caliber team. He can use Knebel for 2-3yrs still then trade him for an absurd return so he gets the best of both worlds.

Buying and Selling should always be options if it makes sense in the short-term and long-term. Who would you think about selling

Maybe I missed something but if you don't think we are actually in contention now then why trade for Sonny Gray? If nothing changes then in 2yrs you're looking at Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips, Shaw, Arcia, Dubon, Thames, Aguilar, whichever catchers, Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz, Davies, Barnes, Knebel (other potential pen arms being Suter, T.Williams, Derby). In 1-2yrs you can trade for a big piece or so from the top prospects - Bickford, Ray, Clark, Diaz, Erceg, Peralta, Hiura, Nottingham, Harrison, Gatewood, Diplan, Ponce, Kodi, Lutz perhaps, (I think Herrera follows the Peralta path) etc....that's more than half of our current Top 25 then add in future top draft picks over next 2yrs as well as any other prospects acquired via trade of MLB players (potentially Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Villar, Perez, Thames, etc) That looks like a terrible position to be in

Or because they had Correa/Altuve making him expendable. He was terrible in 2013/2014 and pretty decent in 2015 while Sneed was a 2014 3rd rd pick and split between A/A+ performing very well.

Oakland got back a solid MLB pen arm with control + 2016 2nd rd pick college bat who's putting together a fine season in A with ability to play middle IF but might stick at 3b + 2016 3rd rd pick who's just getting back from TJ (lefty with #3 upside and 3 average or better offerings including a plus change with really good control - prior to TJ was touching 97 - high ratings for his pitch-ability). They got a good return.

2 average middle infielders and 3 back-end starters? Oh boy. What's the reasoning behind your take

Extremely small sample, he hasn't done much of anything his previous couple of years in Biloxi. Finish the year strong and start in AAA next year. Still highly doubt he is a 40 man add after the season. Taylor isn't remotely close to being similar to Brinson. Dealing Brinson wouldn't be as painful because Phillips is ready to go. Taylor is like the 9th best OF prospect in the system

And for those thinking we can get Gray for table scraps. http://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Billy-Beane-insists-A-s-committed-to-major-11292397.php&cmpid=twitter-premium If you want Gray, chances are the package is going to have to lead with Brinson or Hader. That's fine if you don't want to pay that price but they aren't going to accept our 6th best prospect or something and then a bunch of guys in the 15-25 range because they feel they need a certain position or something. Prospect "ratings" are overrated and way too subjective. Oakland could rate Burnes or Dubon as our top 2 prospects in the system while we think Brinson and Hader are. Who knows what their view of our system is. Surprisingly I feel folks have been fairly decent in their package ideas, alot of times it's like you say, dump our junk on them for an all star! What some of you call junk or damaged goods they might see as valuable. Beane stated they used to prefer players that had a little more experience due to more information on them as opposed to simply targeting the best players. As stated above, we don't know who they view as the best players in our system just as we don't know who Stearns deems the best players in our system. It's great to say and market so-and-so as Top 100s but the reality is those guys have performed and showed their ability to be higher than their peers. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed success at the MLB level. Santana put up excellent numbers in A+, AA, AAA at 19-21yrs old and only made 1 Top 100 list for one year.

I wouldn't say stole by any stretch. Jimenez and Cease are very good prospects (probably understated). By the time their prospects are in the majors, the Royals and Tigers should be terrible. I also disagree. Jimenez is 1.5yrs younger than Moncada and he's in A+ whereas Moncada had 45 AA games by last season's end. Both were Top 5 overall prospects when traded. Cease is 4 months older than Kopech and has 14 A starts this year so could see some A+ action this 2nd half. Kopech had 11 A+ starts by last season's end. Kopech clearly is a higher rated prospect but Sale is also much better than Quintana. All these guys were in similar positions in both those trades. The back-end guys in Quintana deal have more experience than the back-end guys in Sale deal too (4th piece in Sale deal looks horrendous statistically but throws hard so maybe he figures it out at some point). "Rome is burning while Stearns is fiddling" seems to suggest that he needs to react to the Cubs landing Quintana to inject some life into the Brewers. That can be a very dangerous mindset to be in when making decisions that simultaneously impact this year as well as the next 5. I'd argue that adding 1-2 strong pen arms will put the team in a better overall position to contend. Having 8 dependable arms will keep them fresher and sharper creating a ripple effect. The pen has an opportunity to impact every game. He could get both Gray and a strong pen arm but that'll require a lot of farm usage - at least he's targeting guys with control (or so he says he is)

How many Brewers employees directly involved in developing players have been with the organization the past 2yrs (since Stearns)? Past 5yrs? Past 10yrs? Past 20yrs? It's a blanket statement going back to the number of controlled starters the past 20yrs. How many times in the last 20yrs have the Brewers had a farm system like this? How many of those times did it take 2yrs to create it as well as what did you MLB team look like at those times? Cahill was rushed and up by 21. That's one reason a lot of prospects don't live up to their hype. They never fully develop before coming up. Every prospect is different - build, stuff, feel for pitching, mental approach, intelligence, etc. When guys like Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes have performed the way they have you don't bypass them because not every pitching prospect lives up to their hype.

Edit: if we're talking guys who could be here a while (4yrs+) I'd say Santana, Shaw, Arcia, Knebel, Hader. I'd like to add Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff to that list by season's end.

I initially wanted nothing to do with Quintana/Gray type players given we were going to have to part with Brinson + Hader/Woodruff but since it seems that Beane might be targeting low level/high upside guys then that would work much better for the Brewers if it's true and I'd be on board with that. Ray, Ortiz, Harrison + flyer is something I'd be willing to look at if it keeps Brinson, Phillips, Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Dubon in place. These are guys who can play critical roles over the next handful of years and 4 of them are MLB ready with Burnes flying through the system and Dubon in AAA (will need time there next year too). Didn't realize Burnes was consistently hitting 95 touching 97 so I'd keep him over Ortiz as we'll have to part with a top tier pitching prospect one way or the other. I'd prefer to keep Diaz but would be open to including Erceg depending on others involved. Other guys that can float in and out of the deal are Clark, Diplan, Ponce, Supak, Herrera. Ray becomes their top OF prospect, Ortiz arguably their top pitching prospect (Puk) - both slot in Top 5 in system and were Top 100 coming in. I think Harrison as the 3rd prospect makes sense given their OF prospects are pathetic and he'd slot in as their 3rd best and potentially Top 18 in org. Just not sure if that's an overpay or not. Part of me thinks that, part of me doesn't.

Fact: humans indeed need water so why would you even ask it to begin with The Brewers, however, don't "need" a high level SP like you only suggest they target hence the question (and I did say in my 2nd post I should have rephrased to "high level" vs a SP in general but why would you pay attention to that!) I do enjoy the Kewshaw remarks though because it speaks directly to the overall point I made, which you still won't grasp after this

You're obviously a respected, knowledgeable, and honorable poster. My intent about using the word informed wasn't meant to say that only one view is possible. That's obviously not the case. I was trying to get at some people who look at these things closely, as compared with casual fans, have that view. I should have used the word "some" but I didn't intend any distress for my point. I disagree on drafting pitchers, but that's the fun of message boards. It's not interesting if everyone has the same view. And beyond that, some people can be persuasive. I understand. Sometimes things don't exactly read as you meant. Agreed on differing views though. Even some of the more unique viewpoints end up being accurate sometimes. Briggs was famous for his "every year is special" opinion and got a lot of flack for it. Now it is proving true this year and if we thought like Briggs, for building our bullpen for instance, we could have had Wade Davis instead of Neftali Feliz. Back on topic I don't think I would trade Corbin Burnes over anyone else thinking about it more deeply. I don't know if he can pitch to near ace levels at the MLB level, but I don't want to trade him and find out he can. We cannot afford to finally get a legit pitcher and trade him away. Especially when he's touching 97 now (when did this happen?) with 2 secondary pitches being controlled. Burnes I don't part with. I'd prefer not to part with any of our top 4 pitchers.

Tough to find anything to attack when you're the Clayton Kershaw of message board posters. Seriously though, I'm a bit irrationally worried that Cooper is going to come to MLB and just rake, but I get the deal. Webb has the chance to at least wind up as a solid LOOGY now and going forward, which would be a nice asset to have down the stretch. With Cooper behind Thames and Aguilar, a decision was going to have to be made about him before the year ends one way or another. Apparently, this was his value. I think Cooper will be a 270/330/750 type player. Plenty good to be a solid contributor to a team. And if he can hit both lines at Yankee Stadium he get some additional HR

Touché! But this expression means exactly what people think it means irrespective of what logic says. Therefore, I could care less

I never said their MiLB numbers were comparable. And I probably should've said Coopers ceiling was Overbay rather than a direct comp. But both have been good contact, high OBP, doubles hitters. Poor athleticism limits them to 1B, but decent glove. They even look similar. Rogers is a decent comp for numbers sake, but not much else. It's amazing how much stock is put into a stat line with zero context. I'll stay away from the personal attacks and snark except to say that my whole post was about context. If Rogers is a good comp for numbers sake, and we are specifically talking about numbers, how is that irrelevant? In either case Overbay was a significantly better hitter than Cooper at every single level without the benefit of CS. To say that Overbay is the ceiling for Cooper is giving Cooper more credit than he has earned. I'll let it be known if people want to personally attack me feel free. I could case less. This is the first time I've looked at Overbay's minor league numbers. Yikes. Killed it. I also think Cooper is better than Rogers for sure and can have a decent little MLB career. Glad he's getting a shot somewhere

What did he report about it...

Scooter hasn't hit 20HR in a season in his career. He should this year but he also might not. He's also hit 27% of his HR this year in one game. He also moved to a park that's 20' shorter down the lines. Moving to a smaller park and having a game for the ages doesn't mean you're now a "20HR hitter". Cooper isn't a 20HR hitter and there's plenty of "evidence" to suggest it. CS/PCL adds like 5% in distance - this is used to show that balls travel farther in that environment. Prior to AAA, Cooper's HR/FB ratio was a consistent 5.5% area. Last year in his short AAA stint it spiked to 14% and this year it's 20%. What does that data suggest? I wish people would ease up on the "nobody knows what xyz player is going to do....". Clearly If people did they'd never make a bad trade in their life. If people did they'd put their life savings on them to hit their exact numbers for that season at the beginning of the year making millions hand over fist. But there's evidence, data, etc that clearly shows patterns allowing for realistic expectations. Saying "nobody knows" is discrediting all evidence because that can literally be said about anything and everything in life.