TJseven7

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/brewers-sign-andres-blanco-minor-league-deal.html Veteran infield depth for AAA. Might loosen up Ronny Rodriguez's hold on a 40 man spot a bit.

Nothing. Frankly I don't know what's going on that's driving the hype train. No one really talked about him when MKE signed him but 1 place. Now multiple places are acting like they spent more than Medina money on him. I stated earlier, something changed with MKE's dedication to DSL/J2 3 years ago. The last 3 years they have been pulling value there. Above 8 guys who were J2 in the last 3 years are top 30 prospects. Those guys usually don't hit the majors until 22-23 and only a few have cracked age 20. Good things are on the way and if they can even bolster the farm it'll be more help than we've gotten from the international market for quite some time.

Houser should be a 5+ IP guy every five games. I hope this is correct but Houser rarely had an impressive ERA in the minors. He was a 4.57 ERA as a starter in his first go round in the majors. I'd love to believe there will be improvement but 2019 was the most impressive year he showed at any level. I absolutely expect him to have success in the pen. I'm not sure if he can match Chase Anderson as a starter. Chase without counting 2017.

I know he's not a world beater but we already have one pitcher who can't pitch in Colorado. Why not 2? Chad Bettis had bilateral hip surgery in August. It's a 6th month rehab. Makes me wonder if he'd take a 2 way deal. His numbers outside of Colorado are not terrible. 4.4 guy. Would be depth and a survivable starter if injury hit. Also had a (small sample size warning) 10 road start 2018. 59.1 IP and a 2.88 ERA.

This is very much the case. I think 3 guys specifically are the litmus test for the brewers staff. Lindblom has to be a 4.0 ERA guy who carries a good number of innings. Anderson has to be the guy from last year and give this team at least 25 starts. Knebel has to be the stud he was in 2017-2018. If Knebel is back to form Hader doesn't have to close. We still don't have the SU guy that I want, but Knebel Hader makes a quality top 2 in the pen. That allows Peralta/Houser Suter and Phelps to be the next 3. Claudio Black and X are good enough for the last 3. The shuttle can find a solid bottom 3. However, if Knebel comes back and is a low to mid 4 ERA in the pen, (and he was only studly in 2017. 2018 was a solid 3.5) the entire pen short wires and Hader is again forced to end games. Phelps or Houser/Peralta are forced to be the other top arm in the pen and the dominos start tumbling. Woodruff Lauer I believe will be fine. Lindblom being an inning eating solid 4 ERA would really solidify the top 3. If he land between that and the 3.5 ERA 2018 Chacin year, that boost would be huge. Anderson for 25 starts would cover most of a 4th spot and I have enough faith in Houser or Peralta to be the 5. It doesn't take a lot for things to get real bumpy. It doesn't help that our farm doesn't look likely to send anyone to the MLB before the deadline area of the season. That's why I think they are a run of the mill 4.2-4.3 ERA SP and sub 3 ERA SU short. As for the, DS isn't adding because there aren't options. Chicken and egg argument there. Guys fall all the way through the market. Capable MLB guys. I think there are a number of them still out there still. Then we say the 40 man is full but if they've already stashed Faria and are about to stash Guerra. Is Taylor Williams Ronny Rodriguez and David Freitas any different? That's 3 more spots. Yardley could be 4. Was scanning to see what's still out there on the "scrap heap." I've already been talking about Cashner in the pen for awhile. His numbers when moved to the pen in Boston were not bad (would have been better if his BBs didn't oddly spike) and he can go to a 3 pitch mix where all 3 are solid offerings. Can start in dire emergency. Starter had me bothered because of a lack of depth veteran options. Chad Bettis is actually a fairly interesting opportunity. Hurt to end the year but its a 6 month rehab so he should be fully back in the near near future. Numbers outside of Colo were 4.4 ERA which isn't great (in 2018 10 starts 59.1 IP 2.88 ERA is pretty great though) but its also not going to kill you, see Houser. Would allow Houser to pop back into the pen with Peralta if he shows well in ST. Due to the injury, MiLB +40 man spot deal? Like Healy. That could fit and add in that depth. Colorado pushed him into the pen last year. Tell him if he takes a 2 way deal you will use him as a SP. Makes a ton of sense for him to come to MKE and try to get right on a 1 year deal.

Neftali Feliz got 6 mil and only lasted 27 inning. Corbin Burnes got 31 innings out of the pen last year and appeared in 28 games. After getting horribly rocked as a starter. I don't think the contract effects their decision making. I really don't think a contract under 2 million will force their hand. You can put me down for Cashner as a RP on a MLB deal with a DFA of Williams and a 40 man MiLB deal for Chad Bettis with a DFA of Freitas. I think both DFAs slide through waivers. Options options options. AAA starting rotation. Burnes Bettis Supak Miller Jankins and Brown(RP?). Go Missions!

I'm not broken up about it myself. There are a few other guys I'm interested in, and Phelps slipped past me on available targets. However, the whole redundant/we have guys with options stuff isn't without added risk and I don't want to forge ahead with unknown MiLB guys being counted on day 1. I'd probably be happiest with Phelps and Cashner. (not as a starter)

TWilliams, Yardley, Freitas (due to McDowell and Nottingham) are likely the next 3 up in some order.

Right now MKE has Hader Knebel (lets assume he starts the year) Suter, Peralta or Houser, Claudio, Phelps, Black. That's 7. Let's say we have 8 other choices who have options. If you put one in the bullpen day 1, you have 7 choices stashed. If you sign another vet for the bullpen, you have 8 choices stashed. More choices. More chances to get it right. Phelps was paid 1.25 mil, if he flops he's gone. Strop was paid 1.85 mil, if he flops he's gone. No different with Black. Eating a deal under 2 mil and eating a 6-7 mil pen piece is a totally different discussion. They canned Feliz when he flopped. They wouldn't hesitate to can Strop. They released Chacin and JJ last year. I'm with you in that we both do not trust middle and lower level pen pieces. That's why I want as many as I can cram onto our roster because the more you have the better your chances of having 8.

We see that differently. Since FA started, MKE has added Narvaez, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko, Healy, Garcia, Lindblom and Phelps. I don't count Urias and Lauer for Davies and Grisham. I don't count Anderson for Anderson. Those moves are 40 man neutral. MKE has added from outside the organization; RR MM Yardley and Feyereisen. They have jettisoned Faria and Guerra. That means at one point this off season they had roughly 10 spots open on their 40 man roster. What is the value of open spots? Nothing. There is no tangible value to having open spots. They are needed to add players but the moment you need one you can always DFA someone to open 1 up. So early in the off season, when you have 10 spots doing you no good, its wise to grab anyone on the WW who you have an interest in. Filling open spots is the only way to give them value. Even if that value is insignificant, you claim people under your umbrella of control if you have the slightest degree of interest or if they have the faintest pulse. It's just a way to horde value in every way possible. We've seen DS shuttle his 40 man every year. We've seen him scoop a guy and drop him to scoop a more interesting guy because he's trying to make the deepest 40 man roster he can get. He's trying to steal guys for the farm. The sooner the better because a lot of teams have open 40 man spots and competition is at it's greatest early in the off season for players like this. Then you go about FA. Spots start filling up. Ok 40 full. That doesn't mean stop. Faria was 41, he got bumped and slid into the minors because many teams are looking at a full 40 man roster this time of year. Guerra is on his path to the farm now, let's see if he's claimed. There's nothing that prevents MKE from trying to shuttle RR through DFA to the minors. Nothing that stops them from trying to shuttle Taylor Williams through DFA to the minors. Claiming these guys is no guarantee that they are highly valued or must be protected. It's just a smart way to gobble up depth for the farm when 40 man rosters have empty slots to slide them into the minors when 40 man rosters are all but full. It's following the trend of the market. Truly, if enough options were available that are somewhat interesting DS could have claimed his 40 man roster to full before FA even started. Then DFA'd a guy every time he added a guy to replace them. Always DFA'ing the weakest guy on the list. It's just strategy. It's one of DS's aces up his sleeve. One of the creative ways he generates value out of thin air. It shouldn't be seen as MKE tying themselves to a guy.

Part of the positive in having guys with options is that you can shuttle them. Part of the positive in having guys with options is that you can stash them. None of that guarantees they can't actually pitch at the MLB level. Right now a reasonable expectation for the pen includes Claudio who has an option. Black who could flame out and get cut. A wild card who is sure to have options. If we were to add Phelps and Strop you can eliminate the wild card in place of Strop. Only 1 guy that you'd consider shuttling has an option. 2 if Knebel doesn't break camp with the team due to rehab. All it will take is 1 flame out or one injury to push that to 3 right off the bat. I don't see flexibility being a problem with the wealth of players MKE has collected with options. I am far more concerned with having MLB quality pen pieces. I agree with having as many guys with options as possible. I also agree with having as many choices as possible. Starting the year with guys who have options in the minors helps you have more choices. We talk about Phelps and Strop like they are nobodies. Jay Jackson was a nobody. Phelps isn't that. Strop has been that lowly level 2 times in the last 8 years and there's no promise than any of these guys with options will be better than him.

Even if he plays 1st. He's redundant with Braun. Younger, but redundant.

That's sure an interesting path he's on. Rough year, great year, rough year, great year. As a 21 year old he needs to pick up the pace this year. A- to A and good results sure would help his prospects.

That's the idea. Stuff the 40 man early, release fringey guys to DFA as you fill our your roster and sneak them through to the minors. I was surprised Faria went 1st but Guerra was highly expected.

Unfortunately at the same ages Shaw was considerably better at every level. 22 A+ 305/411/957 vs 256/307/724 23 AA 221/342/736 vs 248/306/688 24 AAA 262/321/752 vs 218/305/703 OBP and SLG go from considerably worse to just worse. Wilson for reference 22 A-A+ 254/323/701 23 A+-AA 270/326/759 24 AA again 231/324/739 And no one talks about Wilson except for Clancy.

Good points. I see you and raise you. Pick 2 of Ray Black, Devin Williams, Bobby Wahl and JP Feyereisen. Are they better?

"Let's use the 9 million per WAR estimate: Betts = 7 WAR * 9 = 63 million - 27 million in salary = +36 million in surplus value Sogard = 1.1 WAR * 9 = 9.9 million - 4.5 million in salary = +5.4 million in surplus value Let's use the 5 million per WAR estimate: Betts = 7 WAR * 5 = 35 million - 27 million in salary = +8 million in surplus value Sogard = 1.1 WAR * 5 = 5.5 million - 4.5 million in salary = +1 million in surplus value" This is where I think the issue is though. If you look across FA it's pretty fair to say players in the 1-2 WAR range actually have a valuation of roughly 4 mil per WAR. They get short term low risk deals for about this price. I don't dispute the 9 per on Betts. He's the type who gets a monster deal of 35/7 where he is worth 56-63 mil while being a 7 WAR guy but the longevity of the deal flips into negative territory as he ages. Win now, lose later. With that in mind, I strongly dispute the stagnation across the levels of impact. You only have 25 roster spots to gain WAR. What's better a guy pulling 7 or 7 guys pulling 1? Simple math they are equal but in reality it's much more difficult to have a 7 war player than 7 1 WAR players. I think about it the same was as NFL QBs. Mahomes signs his deal and he becomes the #1 paid QB in the league. It's a bargain the moment the ink dries. But other teams will pay other starting QBs 25-30 mil who have no where near the same impact because that's what QBs cost. In that scenario I see a richter scale like effect to the valuation. I know NFL teams don't follow that as they are too scared of the scarcity at the position but I believe it's there. WAR is the same way. There has to be a richter scale like alteration in the tiers of WAR. Instead of 1 being 1 and 2 being 10. 1 WAR 4, 2 WAR 5, 3 WAR 6, 4 WAR 7, 5 WAR 8, 6-7 WAR 9 per WAR achieved. If you want to say Betts is 9 per because he's north of 6 WAR in 1/25th of your roster I'm perfectly fine with that. I don't think Sogard is 9.9 mil in value because he's only 1.1 WAR. 5.5 mil sure. 9.9 no. One is evaluated properly, one is evaluated poorly by a faulty standard. So with that in mind, the valuation on Price becomes a problem. Even if he holds constant at 2.3 WAR you'd likely be looking at 6 mil per WAR at that level. 7 total WAR over the next 3 years on a tier 2>3 level. Making his contract worth 42 mil over the next 3 years, roughly. (It could get worse than 2.3 WAR as age degrade projects.) 14 per vs the 32 he's paid puts him at a 54 million dollar deficit for that contract. Another example is Cain. 5 years 80 mil. Fgraph values his 5.7 WAR 1st year at 45.4 million. They use 8 and sub 6 war you can make that case. That leaves 4 years of 34.6 mil value to break even. Now year 2 he plummets to a 1.5 WAR season. They say that's worth 12 mil. Still 8 used as the measuring stick. I don't think he was worth more than 7.5 mil as a 1.5 WAR player. One train of thought leaves 3 years and 22.6 mil to earn for break even. One leaves 3 years at least 26.1 mil left to earn for break even. Also in both flat examples 7 or 8 Sogards is worth a Betts. In mine it would take roughly 36 Sogards to be worth Betts. It's a nonsensical hypothetical but 7 Sogards for a Betts doesn't seem right. That's what I'm getting at here. I just do not think you can use the same value per WAR throughout. I think WAR/roster spot has to be factored in to a degree. Betts is 7 war coming from 4%, 1/25th of your roster. It would take 6-7 Sogard's to get that WAR which is around 25% of your roster. That should matter for something. It's not that Betts is wrong. Price and Myers are wrong. Myers as a 1 WAR player costing 67.5 mil over the next 3 years is -55.5 mil. Price as a 2.3 WAR players costing 96 mil over the next 3 years is -54 mil. If you degrade him like you do with the .5 WAR projection he's worth 9 6.5 and 3.2. 18.7 making him a -77.3. If the same is done on Myers he's basically 67.5 mil of nothing. These are both terrible deals and I think the flat 9 per WAR doesn't put that in the right context. Head to head Myers traded for Price is an interesting case. One is terrible and 10 mil cheaper per year. The other is terrible but more useful at 10 mil more per year. If the teams swapped them it actually makes a lot of sense straight up. Boston shaves 10 mil, SDP gets a player that has some worth (small) on the field.

On top of that. Without saying Arica point to our J2 signings who impacted the ranking of our system? It's really been non-existent. The old rules prevented MKE from buying into that market and the program as a whole wasn't fully committed into it. They've been committed to that for 2-3 years now. Well those 16-17 year old kids are now 17-20. That's still very young. However you are starting to see CRod, Garcia pop up in the rankings. You see the love fest articles about Medina and Perez. A good number of the top freak prospects that are in the top 100 are J2 19 year olds (in the past bought by CHI BOS and NYY alone) who are blowing up in A/A+. MKE is finally getting a few of those guys in the pipeline. The system being considered "bad" is also the calm before the storm. Some of these DSL kids are about to get noticed in our system. Crod seems to be the engine leading a building train of talent. I'm not saying Eloy is down there, but they've stacked up some talent down there. Before 2014 Mailen ranked 28 and Pierre ranked 22nd. 2015 Lara ranked 4th 2016 Pablo Abreu who was ranked 30th. After 2017 Carlos Rodriguez, of, Venezuela (No. 8 prospect), Larry Ernesto, of, Dominican Republic (No. 26 prospect) 2018 Eduarqui Fernandez, of, Dominican Republic (No. 28 prospect) Branlyn Jaraba, 3b, Colombia (No. 41 prospect) Eduardo Garcia, ss, Venezuela (No. 49 prospect) 2019 Luis Medina, OF, Venezuela (No. 13 prospect) and some are very excited about Hedbert Perez, OF, Venezuela our #2 signing. The oldest guys in this group are 21. Most haven't hit 20. Some are barely cracking A ball. That's going to pay off in the coming years.

Especially since both went for couch cushion money. Guerra's Arby projection was about the same as these 2 combined bases, even if you count the buyout/deferred money on Phelps. 14-18 the guy rattled off a 2.62 ERA and threw roughly 60 IP per year. Even has 19.1 IP post season '12 and 15-18. 1.86 ERA in those. I get that his FB velo dropped. His SL was still fantastic and the guy throws a good cutter. Throw less FB and more Cutters. Even throw only Cutters and Sliders. You are in the pen.

1. No. 2. Why? Garcia Cain Yelich are already starting in the OF and Braun is going to play there too. That's already set for 2020. Even 2021 would make this a log jam. 2022 would be the 1st time MKE has a true need in the OF.

But we had Moose and Grandal instead of the scrubs we have now. How could this be? How can the offense be as good as last year many wonder. Well, this could help. Frankly, I think this has a lot to do with the make up of the team. I think these type of random happenstances chances increase when you have high walk OBP guys who also K a healthy amount and live on power. Contact heavy teams are less likely to suffer this type of statistical variance. I think MKE has done a better job of adding contact bats and usually they don't do something without their numbers pushing them in that direction.

Him and Peralta/Houser should be 2 IP guys. If they are looking at him as the long man that's a waste.

108 vs 135. 2018 vs 2019. Currently at 107. I'm not saying they need to spend another 28 mil. It also won't take another 28 million. It really comes down to what is "proven." Proverbial trash heap. Meh Veterans. Reclamation project. Mediocrity. Gyorko absolutely isn't trash heap. He cost 2 mil. Is he meh? If you chalk 2019 up to being an injury riddled down year he'd be worth 10-12 mil per. You can go as far as saying if he rebounds his option year (which is pricey compared to 2020) might actually be worth a lottery ticket in trade. He's a bounce back. He's also proven. He's just forgotten and cheap. Phelps is the same thing. 1st year back from a TJ. Showed up half way through June. Did top 5 bullpen work in each of the last 3 years he pitched. Is that meh? He's done more in the pen in the last 3 years he pitched than anyone we called up out of the farm in 2019 except for Houser. If he rebounds in year 2 of post TJ (which is common) he could be very good and then the bonus' kick in and he'd still be underpaid. Anderson is an injury prone meh veteran. Unless he stays healthy then he's a value despite the bonus'. Lindblom fits in there somewhere too. Those are the expensive ones, like Smoak and Sogard. Everyone of these guys has done it. They are cheap compared to what they are capable of producing. In every league there are guys who fall through the cracks and get paid zilch compared to what they do. There's no good way to explain that but its constant in every league. Someone will race to pay some average guy 12 mil and the same guy with a different name will slide past teams because he's not their guy they'll go to someone else for 5 mil because homes dried up and offers didn't arise. If MKE was the type of team that chased and paid these guys COST I wouldn't be recommending this. MKE is a team who buys low. They need to also be the team that buys low in bunches. At times they've done this, at other times they've let this pass them by. MKE understands the difference between paying Arby to Guerra and scooping Phelps. They nickle and dime. If you are smart enough to do that, attack at will. However, 2019 and 2020 have still been short on volume when it comes to the arms. I want them to be more aggressive on this front. There's 2 steps in front of them that they have seemingly ignored in the past 2 years. 1. Load up on cheap vets. If you can buy it undervalued, buy it. The kids can wait their turn. 2. Don't be afraid to sell off extras. If they said, ok we believe we got Woodruff but there's also Peralta Burnes and Anderson. That looks WAY too young. You add Gio and Lyles right away. They cost 6 mil combined. You can't do that, that adds 6 mil on to 135 mil TJ7. Great, then sell Anderson. 2 birds and a lottery ticket for 1 bird. Same cost. 1 less kid on the opening day roster. Sure they spiked cost last year with Grandal and Moose. They were very valuable. 1 cost us a pick. They netted us a lot of 2019 value. Nothing beyond. They helped keep the team afloat when the pitching side of the team was floundering. But why was the pitching side of the team floundering? I don't think they should spike cost like that. I think they should load up on options. Load up on depth and if everything works out, don't be afraid to sell extras. You're mid market, and DS is very very good. However, there's another level of genius he could hit if he would use his track record as proof and get even more aggressive with his capabilities. Ballard in the NFL is one of those bright minds who pushes the envelope. You look at his work and you have to admire it. But you also see how good he is and know that he's still being too tame. When you are good, trust it and attack. DS has that capability, he needs to be more aggressive in his value hording.

Changed it a bit because this is the flip side of the, well you have to give kids a chance at some point stance being said as a rebuttal. If you go into the season with veteran options in place (Lets say for instance Guerra in 2019, JJ in 2019, Phelps in 2020) some of them won't pan out. Some of them will get hurt. 162 games is a very long time. A very very long time. The kids chances will happen naturally for them. If you go into the season counting on kids (Lets say for instance Burnes Peralta Houser) quite a few will not pan out immediately. Some won't be good, some will be initially over matched. If they flop, now what? More kids? Time to scour the WW to see who they can scoop up and get up to speed? This is a depth/bench marks based model of a baseball team. MKE gains an advantage by having "next man up" in place. They weather the chaos of the season very well because of depth. When you fall short of those bench marks you waste games. You can't win the division if you waste games. Our depth prevents us from wasting games. But when you lead with kids, and behind them you have more kids you are at risk of doing just that. Hader forced his way to the majors and pushed his way into a fireman role by dominating in non-leverage situations. He was given garbage man stuff at 1st and he dominated in a way that pulled the team out of the fire. That Yankee's game stands out. You see his leverage moving upwards in his games log. Grisham forced his way to the majors. (and really wasn't that good in his first time through) Houser was worth a pen spot, and was forced into a starter spot where he survived. That happened only because Burnes was handed a starting spot and failed. He earned his pen spot in 2018. Peralta who had shown well in the pen was pushed back into a starting spot and failed. Woodruff got forced into some starts (and earned it) in 2017. He pushed his way back up into the pen in 2018. He took the starting role in 2019. Burnes pushes his way up into the pen in 2018. 2019 he got handed a starting role. Things work out if you let them take their course. By adding a vet starter, and a SU man you aren't blocking anyone. If they earn the spot they'll get that spot. You just aren't going in expecting them to earn it. There are 3 spots in the pen that are low impact and open competition but you have to take care of the top 5 spots. If youth puts themselves in that bottom 3 and produces they'll force their way into the top 5. That's the course. If Burnes started 2019 in AAA and he pitched well, I'm fairly certain he'd have been given the call when Chacin sucked. His time would have still come but instead of him clogging up the 25 man roster with youth, he'd be stashed in the minors and MKE might have had Lyles or Gio on the roster day 1. Putting vets in place to add to the level of competition throughout the depth of this team doesn't hold back anyone. It makes it easier to have stability over the full year and it makes it easier to have a quality 13 arms. It adds options to sort out. Opening day isn't a time for kids. They start in the minors they prove they are the best option and when a domino falls (and they always do) then it's their time. There's a very obvious reason for this. Kids are easier to stash than Vets. Stashing vets into the minors is very tough to do so it stands to reason that you stack up some vets on the MLB squad and stash the kids and away we go. Let the sorting begin. Again we aren't talking expensive vets because David Phelps is nowhere near expensive. JJ isn't expensive, Strop isn't expensive. Cashner won't be expensive. ETC ETC. But it takes a Shelby Miller and Jason Grimm to get a MiLB deal on a vet. (Yes I know they did this with Miley and explaining this should make it resonate with you how HIGHLY UNLIKELY that salvage job was) It's better to work from OLD to YOUNG. As said above, DS does a great job about churning the WW as the season is going on. He's done a great job of grabbing filler looking trade pieces that outperform their status. That's well and fine for late June July August. You can put yourself behind the curve by then. You can waste a year by then. That's the part I don't want to see. They aren't a team that has talent so superior to their competition that they can afford lulls in the season caused by a roster that isn't properly prepared for the season. I'm a football guy 1st and foremost. 53 guys, zero control beyond 53 guys (unless you count IR stashing). If a kid is equal to or close to equal to a vet you play the kid. MLB is totally different. You have 25 guys on the roster. 4-5 don't really have much impact. Another 15 are fully protected. Even more are in the minors with options and teams can't take them during the year. You can have a team 60 options deep for 25 spots. It's totally different. Your best chance of having a great 25 is to have as many bullets as possible. You can't do that by putting guys who you can stash onto the 25 in the place of vets who you can't stash. When kids prove their way up the ladder, that's great. I'd love to see File have a wrecking ball season where he torches AA again, then dismantles AAA as well and he's sitting there waiting for a domino to fall because he's proving start in and start out that he's the best option. I'd love to see Burnes tell him to hold his beer. Then if Anderson goes down and Houser limps we got a vet and 2 kids fighting for a few spots. If they thrive and make 2021 Woodruff Lauer Linblom Burnes File Peralta a 6 man battle, that's going to save some serious money for MKE. Or give them pieces they couldn't afford to buy. But that's not 2020, and they need to add the rent a vets to make sure those spots are filled until those kids force their way into the next man up spot, and earn that spot once they get into it. All off season I've been saying the same thing like a broken record. I get that. I also am very happy with David Phelps of all people. My sights on adds aren't set very high. It's not about them being solid or consistent or proven or expensive. It's all about options. I'd love Cashner to be added to this pen for a Phelps like deal. Will that work out? No idea. The numbers say it's plausible but it's another option. Every single option that you add is another chance to find success. Yes that pushes Devin or Feyereisen or whomever into AAA. Good. They can be stashed, so stash them. Make the AAA pen a super pen with 8 options jostling to be the next man up. That's GREAT because when a domino falls, and one will always fall, someone's going to have earned that spot.

I'd rather throw 1.825 mil at the wall and hope than go into the year knowing the team is short a pen arm. I'd rather gamble on Strop than start the shuttle day 1. I had read 3-4 teams were after him and that his price was relatively high. This is that at all.