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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    Great. In hindsight, it’s easy to look back and say “look at the trajectory”. What is factual, however, Priester wasn’t with the major league club in Boston, but he was traded. I think that’s pretty compelling evidence that they did not consider him near top of the rotation at the time they traded him. That’s where the patience part comes in. Perhaps Boston thought with some further refinement he could become a top of the rotation starter, but they’re trying to win as many games as possible in a tough division and need their 40 man roster for players who can help them sooner than later. The Brewers are good at what they do, and have earned the benefit of the doubt. But I push back at the notion they are playing chess while other teams are playing checkers, or that every prospect they acquire is without warts and seemingly infallible.
  2. Jopal78
    You need to read more carefully, notice the word “impatient” referring to Boston. Also I realize (hope) you’re making a joke, but Priester finished fourth amongst the ‘25 Brewers regular starters in FIP, so not really a top of the rotation arm just yet. And FWIW there were numerous posters here who were incensed the Brewers traded Yophery Rodriguez to get Priester.
  3. Jopal78
    What’s arrogant about it? People who write about minor league baseball players for a living who have actually seen these players play said years ago that Harrison struggles with command because of arm angle. To date, the lack of command has showed up in the major leagues as evidenced by the BB/9 ratio. Boston’s front office may be impatient, but they’re not stupid, and likely to trade away a young controllable arm if they feel the player is close to developing into a TOR starter, and especially not for Durbin who is a useful versatile player but likely not superstar material. So it’s not arrogance it’s skepticism ground in reality. Yet, on this site to suggest any prospect acquired by the Brewers will end up less than a key contributor is met immediately with claims of being arrogant, stupid etc. Like I said, we can wait for the other shoe to drop, but creating a hole in the infield without a ready replacement to get some young pitchers they don’t immediately need, seems like shuffling pieces around to seem active as opposed to a strategy to build the best best 40 man roster they can.
  4. Jopal78
    For context, in 2023 MLB had the Giants farm system ranked 21st. It was lower in ‘24. Harrison was also traded in the Devers deal where San Francisco absorbed $250 million dollars in guaranteed salary and the word on Harrison then was he struggled with command/ developing secondary offerings. I get unconditional prospect love is paramount here, but I’m not relevance of pointing out what a great prospect Harrison was multiple seasons ago. … and yes I am aware the Brewers may have the patience to work with a pitcher to help them reach their apex that Boston doesn’t, but still unless there is another transaction coming, it seems like creating a roster hole in the majors to shuffle pieces around rather than strategic building. Time will tell.
  5. Jopal78
    What’s negative about it? In fact it’s entirely factual. I guess the point is, Williams was a premium reliever whether the Brewers “needed him” or not. After these series of moves, what do they have in exchange for a bona fide ace reliever? Lockridge (almost certainly ticketed for AAA OF duty) A couple of minor league pictures who very well may or may not be good and a utility infielder who they already traded away once before in a salary dump to move JBJ’s contract to Boston. original point: they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt, but it seems like a lot of shuffling pieces around right now.
  6. Jopal78
    I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt but to me it seems like shuffling players around: Devin Williams -> Durbin & Cortes Cortes -> Lockridge Durbin, Monasterio, Siegler -> Harrison, Drohan, Hamilton. So Devin Williams for a two talented but un-proven arms, an infielder they traded away once before and a 5th outfielder.
  7. Jopal78
    Do you believe Skubal filing for $32 million dollars took them by surprise? Or that the Tigers have had no contact with Skubal’s representation since they agreed upon his salary last year? After Skubal filed at 32 million dollars months ago, the Tigers could always have negotiated with him for a lower number and chose not to. The reason why gos back to my original point, had the Tigers theoretically settled with Skubal at say $25 million dollars before hearing; the sum would become a data point that every pitcher will point to in filing for their 6th year salary. Over time it will increase the arbitration salaries for all pitchers across MLB. That Skibal used a narrowly defined clause to get 32 million dollars this year, to me means it’s less of a comp., and more of a one off situation because the majority of other players coming after him will not have the same achievements to argue they’re similar. I am sure the Tigers are disappointed with the results of the hearing, but satisfied they didn’t establish any new comps that players can use to argue they deserve more pay.
  8. Jopal78
    Teams fight tooth and nail for the lowest arbitration salary. Offering more to Skubal raises the floor for everyone else years down the road and as you point out only gives them “a shot” to save some money in the here and now. Every team who heads to a hearing knows the figures if they lose. Each team has people who calculate these things for a living. They did offer Skubal nearly double his salary from last season, and a number which was consistent with prior comps. If Detroit was not comfortable with the worst case scenario they would’ve traded Skubal earlier in the offseason. If anything deserves criticism, it’s the rules for the panel of arbitrators who have no discretion but to choose one figure or the other.
  9. Jopal78
    Buying and rehabbing all the real estate in Chicago surrounding Wrigley Field wasn’t cheap, and may explain why the Cubs aren’t laden with free agent talent. Then again, Jason Heyward 10 years ago (8 years/ 180 million dollars) is their biggest free agent contract to date, and they didn’t resign a single hero from their World Series team, so there isn’t really a huge track record for the Cubs being big players in free agency either.
  10. Jopal78
    Agreed. The difference in local market revenue between Milwaukee and St. Louis isn't daunting. It is the difference between Milwaukee, Los Angeles, New York, etc. that is daunting. The real problem for any future change is the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Mets own their own TV Networks. Another half dozen have an equity stake in an RSN. Those teams can’t just simply roll up stakes and walk away from those entities even if they wanted to. Further with long-term distribution contracts, plus long term debt incurred building out the TV networks, there likely isn’t a practical way for those companies to unwind from their networks even if the vast majority of owners decided to share all local revenue tomorrow. Also importantly, the local revenue is part of the valuation of a franchise to strip that from the Yankees and Dodgers would destroy their valuation, and compress the valuation of all the other teams. That is why the current system is a compromise . Finally, with the Dodgers and their deferments of player salary for example has made diminution of their local revenue impossible; they’ve committed the money already and would need to declare bankruptcy to void those obligations or receive a bail out from the other owners/MLB neither of which will ever happen. TL:DR local revenue sharing is a nice talking point but the next CBA is going to simply kick the status quo can further down the road.
  11. Jopal78
    I wouldn’t be too worried about Tyler Black. A college player who turned pro nearly 5 years ago. The Brewers are likely closer to needing his 40 man spot than they are to penciling him in at the major league level. Although, Lockridge is an extreme roster redundancy and will be 29 by Opening Day, so he just as easily could be DFA’d with less risk of being lost on waivers than a former first round pick from a half decade ago.
  12. Jopal78
    The Brewers do have recent history of signing a washed up starting pitcher to a guarantee for that person be the long man out of the pen/spot starter. (Jordan Zimmerman, Jose Urena, Tyler Alexander etc.) so I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up with someone like Patrick Corbin.
  13. Jopal78
    Bassitt is still available, right? He’ll be 37 shortly, but was much better than Quintana last year. He probably has his choice of one year deals, and is holding out for a multi-year offer but would be the best fit for Milwaukee. The rest of that list is pretty picked over and I wouldn’t be surprised if many of those pitchers retied. I don’t see anyone giving a guarantee to Mikolas, Buehler, Stroman, Morton, Gray (out for season), Corbin. Paddack is a tweener, stats say NRI but he’s still 29 so maybe a one year guarantee. If Verlander and Scherzer play in ‘26 they likely have destinations where they’d be willing to pitch and will wait until one of them comes calling.
  14. Jopal78
    There is a position that’s tasked with knowing the scouting report reports and other pro players in the league. It’s called the Director of pro personnel. For the Packers, it is Richmond Williams. I doubt any coaches know every player on all the teams in the NFL, but they probably would watch film if asked on certain players
  15. Jopal78
    They’ve cut it down to the bone in St. Louis, it will be interesting to see how long of a leash Chaim Bloom gets. I can’t imagine the Cardinals piling up 90 losses in consecutive seasons, yet I don’t see a way their talent is anything but last place unless Herrera, and Burleson suddenly turn into the best hitters in their division and they hit on a couple of pitching prospects all at the same time.
  16. Jopal78
    …. Matt Arnold is probably getting out his shopping cart.
  17. Jopal78
    I don’t think Saurez really lines up with the philosophy the Brewers have. They’ve made an obvious shift away from having a bunch of 3TO sluggers into contact hitters with early aggression, and pressure with motion on the bases. He would have easily lead the Brewers in Ks, (he struck out nearly 50 more times than Turang in the same number of PAs). His OBP would have bested only Joey Ortiz. Saurez hunts mistakes and often hits (and strikes out) from behind in the count, and his sprint speed is contrary to what the Brewers are trying to do offensively. That he only got a 1 year 15 million dollar deal after hitting 49 bombs and 28 doubles in 2025 indicates the rest of MLB has concerns about his game too.
  18. Jopal78
    They play for money. So as a general concept if a team wants to add talent they have to pay for it with cash, or the future potential from minor league players. With 162 games season and 7 game playoff series it is rare for a team to make the World Series and win as a fluke. Most often it’s the team with the most talent/depth. Being in the worst market, the Brewers are a bit more conservative than most because the value of being competitive year in and year out is more than “going for broke” to win it all then spending several seasons as a second division team rebuilding. They just had the best record in baseball last season yet it was not even one of the 10 best seasons attendance wise. If fan interest is stagnant/warning when they’re a top team in the league, imagine what would happen if there was sustained losing for several years?
  19. Jopal78
    How many luxury suites are they going to lease when Giannis isn’t there an a bunch of nobody’s are getting their lunch fed to them nightly as the team drifts rudderlessly searching for their next superstar? It’s too bad they mortgaged the future to keep him around and are now looking to trade him anyways, and a Giannis trade immediately puts Milwaukee back into irrelevance. .
  20. Jopal78
    Turang will be 30 by the time he’s eligible for free agency too. He’d need to pick up his game even more to be worth an extension into his mid to late 30s.
  21. Jopal78
    Maybe money? Brewers have $3.1 million in bonus money invested in Wilken, $1.3 million in Pratt. Probably makes sense to be a little more deliberate with a college player they have a good chunk of bonus money invested into, than automatically clearing the decks for the 20 year olds.
  22. Jopal78
    Take a look at 2016 then. MLB Pipeline had their system ranked #1 in the mid season rankings. Yet, just 3 players out of their Top 10 went on to become regular contributors for the Brewers (Hader Arcia, and Williams). 2 never saw the major leagues (Gilbert Lara, Kodi Medeiros. Grisham was traded away. The other four were fringey major leaguers who were traded by Milwaukee and subsequently released/put on waivers by their new club, then bounced from organization to organization (Cody Ponce, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez and Jacob Nottingham). Prospect love is cool especially to keep hot stove going, but the real probability that more than a couple of the Brewers current crop of heralded prospects pan out as regular contributors in Milwaukee is slim.
  23. Jopal78
    I chose 2020 because that year is mature. We know what happened to those players. 2021 might be the last mature year, and there are six players in the Top 10 who aren’t in the Brewers plan anymore. It’s math 50% or more aren’t going to make it, unless like I said, it’s nice in a lifetime luck and the Brewers are busting at the seams with talent.
  24. Jopal78
    Take a look at the Brewers Top prospect list from 2020. Four of their Top 10 never saw the majors (Tristen Lutz, Antoine Kelly, Eduardo Perez and Herbert Kelly) three made token appearances for the Brewers (Small, Corey Ray, Feliciano), one was traded (Rasmussen) and Turang and Ashby are regulars in Milwaukee. Point being, unless they are once in a lifetime lucky, it is an inevitability that some of these prospects will flame out before Milwaukee and some will be flipped for different players, and who plays where will work itself out that way.
  25. Jopal78
    Maybe you’ve seen him play, I haven’t seen him play. However, Keith Law has seen him play and writes, Pratt needs to develop power and make better quality contact to be more than a soft regular in the major leagues. So there’s someone, certainly with some credibility, who has seen him play that’s questioning the potential of the bat.
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