Jopal78

My point isn’t about Hoskins, it is what the going rate for free agents is. Spend a minute looking around at what even mediocre free agents with warts are getting. I think you will find, any player who plugs in as an everyday player is close to $15-18 million: Hoskins, Joc Pederson, Profar etc. Career year by Grisham in ‘25, yeah maybe. He wouldn’t be the first player to cash in after a career year. For sure there will be teams looking for an everyday center fielder or to add power and speed to their lineup and he’s coming off a big time season. So you might think he’s trash but the demand will likely be there .

Sure he hit .235 but his OBP was .348 and his slugging was .464. Away from Yankee Stadium he was a monster in ‘25 .269/.367/.537. Grisham would have lead the Brewers in slugging and homers in 25. He plays CF and won’t be 30 until the 2027 season. Predicting contract length is hard, but Grisham is more than likely closer to 20 million AAV than 15 (Hoskins older and coming off a major injury got 17 mil AAV with the Brewers) as refernced in the above projection .

Professional sports are exploitative by their nature. Cost controlling players for a certain number of seasons after they turn pro. Forcing amateur talent in the US to be in a draft with slotted values in order to turn pro. Solely in baseball, signing kids from the DR for pennies on the dollar of what they’d earn as a draftee stateside. Early contract extensions where the player is leaving tens if not hundreds of million dollars on the table for more up front.

I think you need to take Woodruff‘s metrics with a grain of salt. The Brewers nursed him through 2025. Woodruff was babied through the 2025 season receiving a full five days rest between nearly every start, sometimes more. When he was pitching, the Brewers rarely pushed him past 85 pitches. In the 4 starts they did, he had an ERA over 6.00. In the starts where he threw 90 or more pitches he had an era over 9.00. Then, despite being eased back into action with kid gloves he suffered additional injuries in May, and again in September (not to mention getting hit by a line drive on the elbow). People also forget Woodruff missed a huge chunk of the ‘23 season with a different shoulder injury before tearing the capsule and rotator cuff and has made it to 30 starts just once in his career. So one guy gave up too many homers at Wrigley in ‘25, the other’s medical file and durability are huge red flags. But I think you’re right time will tell soon enough.

The Cubs declined a 3 year/57 million dollar option on Imanaga. Kind of similar pitchers: Woodruff more of a track record, but marginally older and greater history of major injury. my guess would be if the Cubs are unwilling to go 3/57 with Imanaga they probably aren’t many teams that are going to go 3/60 with Woodruff. Perhaps Woodruff‘s availability is a problem for the Brewers. If not, they have nothing to really lose by offering him a one-year at the QO price with the club option for the following year in the same neighborhood with a small buyout attached. Woodruff performs well in 2026 declines the player option he would’ve done better than just the QO and re-enters free agency. If he is injured or pitches poorly they have a bad contract on their books for one season. When 40-year-olds like Verlander and Charlie Morton are getting $15-$16 16 million a year. There’s not a whole lot of downside to keeping quality starting pitcher around if you can.

Why does it rub you the wrong way? There is a finite amount of resources to be spent on Baseball Operations. $700-$900k saved might not gain them much on the major league roster but it could mean all the difference between signing an international kid they like, and not. Secondly, it’s professional sports; there’s no loyalty either way. Teams don’t pay players more than they have to simply to be nice, and players don’t take less money than they could otherwise earn just to be cordial.

Ok, why would the Brewers declining their half of option bother Contreras a bit? Unless he and his representatives are all nincompoops, they would have known at the time he signed it, that he would unlikely be awarded a salary in excess of 12 million dollars. Thus he’s got nothing to lose and gets an extra $100,000 for an option unlikely to be exercised anyway. The only alternative explanation is he and his agents believed he would likely do better than 12 million for 2026 and he inexplicably signed the club option anyways. That would mean they’re all idiots .

In the last ten years the Brewers have signed 1 free agent with a total guarantee of more than 50 million dollars. Anybody truly expecting them to dip their toes in the first wave of free agency hasn’t been paying attention and will likely be disappointed. Arnold doesn’t start shopping until late January. Brian Anderson: January 23 Luke Voit: February 21 Hoskins: January 26 Junis: February 7 Elvin Rodriguez: January 17 Gary Sanchez: February 21 Tyler Anderson: February 15 Quintana: March 5

Don’t be a cheapskate “as I remember it” from an article written 18 months ago. Go read the actual article. It’s crystal clear what he means. Anyways, your mid is made up and infallible, so no point in discussing it further.

You don’t have to take my word for it; here’s the exact quote from May 17, 2024 as reported to Todd Rosiak regarding an extension with Milwaukee. “I’m not interested in that. I’m here playing my game, and I know my time is going to come”. Like I said earlier, every player will say they “want to stay”, or “love the city,” “feels like home” etc. It’s good PR to do so. But at the end of the day, they play for money and almost all pro-ballplayers don’t really give a crap where they “work” as long as it’s for the most money they can get. So if you want to believe the platitudes go ahead, but money talks always.

Go search the JSOnline archives from 2024 and you’ll find the quote from Contreras paraphrased: he’s not interested in an extension that would delay his free agency. Now, from a PR standpoint no player (except maybe the brutally honest Aramis Ramirez or Yasmani Grandal) wants to appear greedy so they always say they are open to an extension. They just leave out the second part: if and only if said extension is at top of the market prices.

He’s barely played and will be going on 31 when’s Mitchell is eligible for free agency. I don’t know why anyone would pay a premium up front to secure the services of an injury prone player as he moves into his early 30s. Now, I’m sure Mitchell would love to get some guaranteed money up front instead of going year to year in arbitration where his chronic unavailability will certainly hurt his pay. But what value would the Brewers get from giving him an extension?

The front office would not be very good at their jobs if they declined a $12 million option without knowing the likelihood they’ll end up paying more. If MLB TradeRumors can put up arbitration projections that are fairly accurate; I think it’s safe to say the Brewers, with non-public data and algorithms, know already what they’ll have to pay Contreras in 2026. Frankly, the ability to decline the club option in 2026 is the point of having it. With no real comps (most catchers at Contreras’s age and service time are making far less money. The highest paid players at catcher are all far more experienced, and on multiyear deals) they’re protecting themselves from the possibility of an adverse award at arbitration. It certainly won’t come as a surprise to Contreras either. If he didn’t know his chances of eclipsing 12 million dollars when he gave the team a club option, then either he and/or his agents are incredibly stupid.

I believe the JS reported back in 2024 that Contreras is not interested in an extension. Of course, most players would interested in an extension if it’s for top of the market pay, but outside of Yelich it’s not something the Brewers do. There is no need to extend Frelick he’ll already be 30 by the time he’s a free agent. The Brewers would have to be supremely confident Sal will continue to improve up until his 30s to derive any real value from an extension into his 30s. Same deal with Turang. Milwaukee would have to be convinced the value of Turang’s performance as he ages into his 30s will be worth paying more upfront now than they have to going year to year. Durbin will already be 26 on Opening Day next season, and his rookie status is still intact. Nuff said. The Brewers would be prudent if they could get Misiorowski to sign an Ashby like extension. But I think if Misiorowski was willing to give the Brewers cost security for arbitration years, and club options beyond his six seasons of control, it would have been done already. The others: Henderson, Patrick and Made have too many questions to accurately assess their future value and determine if an extension would benefit Milwaukee.

$12,000,000 would place Contreras 5th highest paid at the catcher position, and his salary would likely then grow exponentially after that for 2027. Pretty easy business decision for Milwaukee to decline the option and go to arbitration. Not only for their budget, but inevitably for suitors when Milwaukee trades him at some point after January 1, 2027.

Pitching talent is scarce; that’s why Woodruff likely will have a new home in 2026. Fading vets Charlie Morton and Verlander each still got a 15 million dollar guarantees this past season. Woodruff at nearly ten years younger will certainly get a multiyear deal and for likely well above $15m per season. The Brewers have nothing to lose by picking up their half of his mutual option and offering him the QO if he declines.

You got it right, should read “will never happen”

A salary cap and full revenue sharing will never happen. For 3 main reasons: 1. Players will likely never give up the right to sell themselves to highest bidder. If they were not willing to do it in 1994 when the largest salaries were 6 million per year, why would it be given any consideration now when the average salary is approaching 6 million per year. 2. The large market teams have no interest in Kansas City, Cleveland or Milwaukee being on more even financial footing and potentially making the competition stiffer. It wouldn’t expand their market, improve their market share or tap into any new revenue sources. 3. Small market owners would never agree to a salary floor (a condition precedent for both full revenue sharing and salary cap). The thought of being forced to spend money on talent when in the down side of a success cycle, instead paring payroll to the bone is as repugnant to those owners as a cap is to the players. Maybe 30 year ago they had a shot at this, but the strike and intervening CBAs since then have made it impossible.

The straw man is back! Too bad I didn’t say Ohtani or Sasaki would’ve stayed home. What you continuingly fail to recognize is players play for money. Already earning millions of dollars a year in Japan, their players typically do not come to America just “for the love of the game” or “to play against the best”, they’re coming here to make even more money. I’m willing to bet not a single one crosses the pacific without first having a guarantee that they’re making much more than they could in Japan. Plus, whatever costs are required to get the Japanese team that holds their rights to give them up. Unless you believe superstar ball players don’t generate revenue in Japan like they do here in the States. You’re the one with the idea for an international draft. How do you get a player who’s making millions of dollars a year to give it up to come to the US and play for a team or city they don’t want to when they always have the option of staying in Japan and continuing to get real paid? Even assuming for the sake of argument, MLB has an international draft. Who is going to use their choice to secure the rights of a Japanese player should they ever choose to come to America and play when they can select a kid from the DR who would jump for a six or low seven figure bonus. Or how do you do an international draft where salaries for international players are cost controlled for the teams without players from wealthy foreign leagues scoffing at it. Back to my original premise there’s no practical way to do it. And I don’t know why you keep bringing up European league basketball when they’re paid pennies on the dollar compared to NBA salaries. That’s a better analogy to baseball players from the DR or Mexico. Of course, they’re going to come to the States the minimum is more money than nearly all are making locally.

Why do Americans who don’t cut it in MLB go to Japan, because they’ve always wanted to play in an inferior league? No, they play for money. Don’t confuse the highest paying league with the best league. Players come to America to play for the money, not for the cache that comes with being able to say back home that they played for the KC Royals. And of course they’re going to give the rah rah PR lines: want to play against the best, for the love of the game, etc. etc. That’s marketing. More importantly it takes two to tango. I suspect to most involved in Japanese baseball the system is not broke so why fix it? A Japanese superstar nears the end of team control, team posts him and gets a huge infusion of cash when they ultimately sell them off, player ostensibly gets to select where they play in America and for how much. What’s not to love?

You’re wrong for a couple reasons. First of all NPB team control a players rights for 9 years. They can agree to post them earlier like Sasaki but are not required to. So the number of Japanese players worth drafting in an international draft format would be incredibly small (More Nori Aoki’s than Yamamoto’s). Next, you’re not realizing star players in the NPB like Yamamoto, Ohtani, even Imanaga already made millions of dollars during their years playing professionally in Japan. Do you honestly believe a millionaire Japanese born baseball player is going to come to America and play for a salary, team or city that they have no say in? Maybe you’d get a few again like Nori Aoki or Tadahito Iguchi, but there’s a reason nearly every star player from Japan has ended up on the West Coast, New York or Chicago. And that’s why it’s apples and oranges with kids from the Dominican who are not bound to local clubs for almost a decade and are looking at their first ever big pay day when they sign a contract as a 17 year old.

Williams got lit up for ten runs in his first 10 innings with the Yankees, yet still wound up with his H/9, BB/9 HR/9 K/9 at or near his career marks and pitched a career high number of innings. He won’t need to take a pay cut from the 9 million he made in ‘25 or play for incentives, and will almost certainly get a hefty multiyear deal somewhere not called Milwaukee.

Nothing practical can be done. Even if they made an international draft or put caps in place, star professional players in Japan are well compensated compared to the other foreign leagues. Therefore, the next Yamamoto or Sasaki could decide there’s too much culture shock in Milwaukee, or not enough chance to win in Minnesota, etc., and simply refuse to come stateside and play if selected by a team they do not prefer or wait until preferred destination becomes possible. I suppose teams could set up a baseball academies like in the DR and start scouting amateur Japanese players and beat the NPB to the punch in contracting them, but that sounds quite expensive with no guarantee of it ever being worthwhile.

Anyone who was in favor of the last labor deal should’ve known it would be bad for teams like Milwaukee. It’s been a double whammy. Prices Since for even mediocre free agents have reached 10+ million dollars a year. Leaving teams like Milwaukee to bargain shop in February when the free agent class has mostly been picked over two or three times already. Then with the prices being what they are, even the big dogs recognize with the costs of talent acquisition they need to have a pipeline of young cheap talent and don’t trade blue chippers. As for a salary cap, there is no reason for the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies to want a salary cap; they’re more than satisfied playing an opponent on unequal footing most nights. I’m not convinced small market owners in KC, Cincy, TB, Milwaukee etc, want a salary floor either. In rebuilding seasons where they don’t have the horses on the roster to win they want to retain the ability to pare salary down to the bone and not sign 10 million dollar a year free agents simply to meet a floor.

Back up catchers don’t play much if at all in the playoffs, they’re basically there to avoid catastrophe if the starting catcher must leave the game; that rules out pinch hitting them except in extreme desperation scenarios. Milwaukee seemingly had either Bauers or Vaughn pinch hit late in games when they were desperate. Hard to say Jansen who hadn’t played much with the Brewers (only 25 out of 54 games after being acquired) would have been more likely to deliver a miracle.