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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    Look at the totality of the circumstances. He made 11 starts, went 5 IP or more in 8 of them. Made only 1 start where he allowed more than 4 runs (that was the last week of the regular season when playoff positioning was no longer in question). The back of the rotation was a mess in 2024 with Miley and Gasser blowing out their elbows. Bryce Wilson barely averaging 4+ innings per start, Dallas Keuchel running on fumes, then ultimately Joe Ross. Ross was moved to the pen when Montas arrived. Ross as the #5 starter had an ERA of 4.97. The last two months of the season in the pen his era was 1.97. Adding Montas improved the rotation AND improved the bullpen. I get it, you don’t like Montas and liked Joey Wiemer, but there are no facts that support the position that Montas was anything but a solid acquisition for the Brewers.
  2. Jopal78
    You may be right, but whether he’s worth rostering is not wholly dependent on his metrics, but is equally dependent on who else they have that could take his spot. It’s unrealistic to assume they’re going to reach a breaking point and call up one of their higher ceiling prospects who has a lower floor currently than Rengifo then let that player repeatedly fail in the majors while the team has postseason ambitions. Fact is, no matter how bad their SS and 3B play offensively, they’re going to run them out there until the decision makers believe they have a player ready to take their jobs, and by all indications there isn’t right now.
  3. Jopal78
    Montas took the ball every 5th day, ate innings at the back of the rotation and kept them up in every game but one. And for that production they gave up a renal middle reliever who had missed three months with an injury and a journeyman outfielder. How is it anything but a huge win from the Brewers prospective?
  4. Jopal78
    Indisputable talent, but is Sproat going to be anything when he’s staked to a huge lead and has trouble finishing 5 innings .
  5. Jopal78
  6. Jopal78
    Rengifo may be a declining player but his OBP is 30 points below where it was last year and 50 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 60 points below where it was last year and 100 points below below his career average. His exit velocity is the same as last year and he’s hitting more balls in the air than last year. Unless Rengifo has truly hit the the wall physically at 29 which doesn’t seem likely, his statistics suggest he’s going to start playing better
  7. Jopal78
    With thoracic outlet syndrome, it is probably wishful thinking that he would ultimately avoid surgery, but obviously the best thing for his career would be to try to rehab the injury. First time will tell.
  8. Jopal78
    Yep, trade Made and Williams tomorrow for Machado and call up Pratt to SS. Sheesh
  9. Jopal78
    I thought the Cardinals were supposed to be rebuilding
  10. Jopal78
    A CFer with a .750 OPS and Mitchell’s speed and defense would play in the majors for a decade or more. Lorenzo Cain 13 years .749 OPS Mike Cameron 17 years .249 BA .782 OPS Carlos Gómez 13 years .724 OPS Devon White 17 years .739 OPS [Collectively 8 All Star appearances too] If Mitchell has super star potential then yes, he should pick up his game. If this is his ceiling (low BA with .750 OPS) the Brewers don’t need to worry about CF so long as he’s healthy.
  11. Jopal78
    Crazier to think that Clemens threw 6 more innings than Higuera (254 to 248) that year while starting one less game (33 to 34). Clemens allowed 47! fewer hits (179 to 226) and struck out 31 more (238 to 207).
  12. Jopal78
    A team can’t leave someone on the 60 day IL after the World Series. They’d have to DFA Zerpa or keep him on the 40 man until late February early March when the 60 day Il applies again. Could it happen? Sure, but the Brewers are also going to have minor league players they want to protect and other loves they want to make which could place 40 man spots at a premium. if Zerpa has surgery as rumored he’s done for this year and possibly/probably into next year. 2028 would be his final year of control. So just considering Mears could give the Royals 110-120 innings before free agency after 2027; Zerpa may not even get to that number of IP pitched between now and September 2028 if he has an elbow injury requiring surgery. Sorry, but it looks like a bust. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but the circumstances don’t look good right now for Zerpa to contribute meaningfully as a brewer. Then again, if the biggest thing to argue about is the future of a middle reliever, it means it’s a good time to be a Brewer fan
  13. Jopal78
    With a .390 OBP it doesn’t really matter
  14. Jopal78
    Of course it’s bad luck, but if he has hurt his elbow to where he requires surgery (unknown but getting a second opinion is an ominous indicator) and is out until some unknown time in 2027, while already heading into his second year of arbitration. If all those things turn out to be true, he likely will never pitch again for the Brewers (this is especially so considering all the talent they will need to add to the 40 man roster in the short run). Thus, if you give up a pitcher like Mears who has been decent for the Royals, along with a depth piece in Collins for 11 innings of Zerpa, it’s the definition of a bust: more talent and production went out the door than came back.
  15. Jopal78
    Of course they don’t have insurance in Woodruff, it doesn’t make any financial sense for the team. Same idea with an insurer. It would e like writing a policy for a motorist with a history of crashes, why would any company write a policy for a pitcher who already has significant injury history, it would not be a likely money making situation. Maybe if a player has a 250+ million dollar guarantee they could be insured, as you mention, for very specific outcomes: career ending injury, injury resulting in multi-season disability,
  16. Jopal78
    I’d rather have Mears than Zerpa straight up. I’d take Collins even with a bad start over Greg Jones too. Even at a more base level, Zerpa goes down and somebody has to pick up the 50 or so innings he was likely to pitch the rest of the way weakening the depth. So yeah, a bust.
  17. Jopal78
    D’Oh. An era of nearly 7, with his stuff. Example #1 he needs to learn how to pitch.
  18. Jopal78
    While low stakes a bust of a trade and it’s not even May 1st yet. 2nd opinion almost always means the ligament is damaged and it’s a question of rehab or TJ. If he needs TJ surgery it means he’s almost certainly getting non-tendered after the season.
  19. Jopal78
    Yeah, you could be right. Clearly Perkins is a fringe major leaguer so playing once a week isn’t going to make much impact. If the organization still views black as someone who might be a regular contributor in the future, they probably want him to play every day than be a soft platoon getting at bats here and there. Time will tell.
  20. Jopal78
    It’s too bad Black isn’t viable at 3B, he’d already have gotten his shot to be a regular. But he’s not going to play regularly over Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Yelich and Vaughn once(if) they’re all healthy. So then they probably ship him back to AAA to play everyday instead of pinch hitting and spot starts. Maybe if Vaughn lays an egg this year and gets non-tendered that would open up a spot for Black. Otherwise his best path is taking over the Jake Bauers role next year 1B and OF reserve
  21. Jopal78
    Pratt has a whopping 3 extra base hits against AAA pitching where there isn’t a Skenes, a Mitch Keller, a Edwin Cabrera, a Chase Burns, Yamamoto, Sale, Elder, etc etc. I’m not defending Ortiz but there’s really not many replacements who are likely to be significantly better despite how low the bar is.
  22. Jopal78
    But they didn’t pay Jordan Montgomery $22 million. The season was 66% over when he was acquired an it was absorbing approx 7 million dollars of his reming salary to acquire Shelby Miller without having to ship out talent in exchange. It’s creative it just doesn’t change the premise that they are not going to have much interest in trading for veterans with hefty contracts/commitments. Arnold as GM just hasn’t taken on a big contracts in trades, and it’s not really in the brewers history overall to carry a stack of big contracts/commitments. The last 15 years it’s been Braun on a market rate deal and one or two other players, then Yelich on a market rate deal and one or two other players. I don’t expect that to change before 2029 unfortunately.
  23. Jopal78
    No. It’s not like the Brewers are tanking where losing is tolerated as part of the bigger picture. They’re trying to win as many as possible. They’re not going to call up Pratt to be overmatched at the major league level just for the sake of making a change at SS. They’ll call him up when they believe the totality of his game is superior to what Ortiz offers. It could happen this year, but early indications are Pratt is going to need significant playing time to develop against advanced minor league pitching let alone major league pitching.
  24. Jopal78
    Other than one of the points of the extension was to unburden Pratt’s development. Calling him up to the major leagues when he’s currently overmatched in AAA is exactly the opposite of their initial intent. Ortiz is awful with the bat, no argument there, but they’re short on pragmatic alternatives so he’ll continue to get ABs until someone else’s performance takes his job away.
  25. Jopal78
    You might want to check Williams and Pratt’s numbers in AAA this year. Neither of them are going to force the Brewers hand anytime soon. Leonard isn’t on the 40 man roster which means his path is more complicated. Where Joey is at with the bat and what would be acceptable for a strong defensive SS is t that wide of a chasm. He’ll keep getting chances until somebody takes his job from him, but without someone breathing down his neck they’re not going to make a change for change’s sake.
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