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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    You are incorrect about value. Pro sports teams have become the ultimate investment. They are scarce. There is no risk of losing your money: they’ll never go out of business, and the sale prices only go up. Plus only the elite investors can get in due to the amount of capital needed to buy one. The value of Attanasio’s team isn’t tied to fans in the seats it’s tied to what other teams sell for, and intangibles like “heritage” and “brand”. Judging by the teams they fielded during his ownership, he is aware however the revenue generated from the smallest market in MLB is influenced almost entirely by the product on the field. Good teams on the field mean more luxury suite leases, more consumers of game broadcasts, more licensing fees, internet clicks, merch sales, ticket sales, concessions and parking, etc. With their run the last 5 years the potential market revenue is very likely maxed or close to maxed out. So there really is no reason for him to sink more money in his team, and while fans might be disappointed to see Burnes and Adames leave for more money elsewhere the fact they do probably doesn’t bother him that much as an owner.
  2. Jopal78
    The Dodgers didn’t get where they are by giving away talent. May has tore his elbow ligament twice, an increasingly common occurrence (de Grom, Evoldi, Buehler, Taillon, Drew Rasmussen, etc.). He missed last year not with an arm injury but with an esophageal tear. I’m sure if the Dodgers wanted to trade Dustin May, there would be any number of teams lining up for the reasons you state thereby driving up the price to the realm of legitimate talent.
  3. Jopal78
    My point is, someone will always pay money to broadcast baseball games. The rate they pay may fluctuate as technology changes how the game is consumed, but there is zero chance teams won’t have someone paying them for rights. Secondly, a team doesn’t have to be in a major market to have a competitive advantage financially over the teams they’re competing against. DeWitt can afford to hire better players than Attanasio can because the Cardinals media market is huge geographically. He might be cutting payroll in 2025 because he doesn’t have the horses to compete with Milwaukee but that doesn’t mean there’s an interest in ceding that competitive advantage in the future. Same for the Tigers, in the long run the Ilitch family has no interest in making their path in the AL Central more difficult by giving the Twins, Guardians and Royals more resources. Eating the rich always sounds good, but I think you’re over estimating how willing the middle market clubs (which make up most of MLB) would be to change their status quo financially.
  4. Jopal78
    Quero #15 Pratt #44 Black #56 Jesus Made (!) #78 Misiorowski #87 Of note, thinks Black should be Brewers 1B full time because he would out produce Hoskins. Black projects as a better defender at 2B or CF than 1B but is blocked at those positions. Misiorowski’s shaky command will limit him to relief work in the majors. Jesus Made is the only player on his Top 100 who has yet to play stateside. Pretty high praise.
  5. Jopal78
    Anything is possible, but if you think Bill DeWitt would vote to share his market revenue with Attanasio without the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox sharing with him you’re dreaming
  6. Jopal78
    The ship has sailed on increased revenue sharing. The big boys already have their own networks which they co-own with private equity firms and other investors. Even if the vote to share all broadcast revenue was unanimous there would still be no practical way to unentangle the clubs from their business partners. This disadvantage is why they’ve expanded the playoffs to 12 teams. Only 3-4 teams have a legit chance to win it all, but if teams play .500 ball for the first 100 games they have a shot at the playoffs and who knows they could always get lucky.
  7. Jopal78
    My question would be does increased payroll directly correlate to increased franchise value or even increased profits? They’re professional baseball teams after all, and not some entity that has any sort of fiduciary duty to their fans. I think the Brewer’s owner has done a fantastic job with the product he has put out on the field compared to the last 10 years before buying the team, and in comparison to similarly situated franchises: Pittsburgh Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit, etc. Attanasio doesn’t owe me anything, and is unpopular as it may be doesn’t owe any of you anything either. I don’t understand why people think someone should invest more money in payroll without a direct correlation to it benefiting him somehow, especially if it means running his team at a loss or investing more revenue (his own money) than his market will bear.
  8. Jopal78
    Small cell lung cancer is a death sentence. I must’ve listened to Uecker at least 3,000 times in my life. The passion he had for Brewers baseball was incredible in light of what he likely was physically experiencing during the 2024 season, and mentally knowing the end of his life was approaching.
  9. Jopal78
    They do injury settlements in the NFL. They’re common with players who get hurt in preseason and don’t make the team. In this scenario Watson gets a chunk of cash (likely the pro rata amount of pay he would get for the weeks he is projected to miss) and the Packers release him. Packers get cap space, Watson gets to sign with another team and potentially not miss an entire season on IR which would almost certainly be the case with the Packers
  10. Jopal78
    The longer Ha Seong Kim remains unsigned the more likely I think he winds up with the Brewers. Too many traits the Brewers like to ignore: defensive skill, versatility, good speed. Plus his OPS last year outside of Petco was .750 and career it is .725, and not quite 30 yet. Short term fix at SS for 2025, they just have to wait him out for the right price.
  11. Jopal78
    Not surprising at all, Montas and Severino have been able to pitch effectively after suffering significant arm injuries. Houser has missed time with multiple elbow injuries since June of 2022, a time period which coincides with his production falling off. He’s on an MiLB deal because of those reliability issues.
  12. Jopal78
    Colin Rea illustrates how far the Brewers have come as an organization in raising their talent floor. Since returning from Japan, Rea had a 1.23 WHIP, a 3:1 K:BB ratio for the Brewers (49 starts/58 appearances), and in their analysis they believe they have enough starting pitching depth to make it worthwhile to let Rea go and reallocate his salary for 2025. 15 years ago those stats would have led the team and he’d probably be pitching at or near the top of the Brewer rotation.
  13. Jopal78
    I meant exactly what I said, Raleigh has more homers and RBI but Contreras has him beat in very thing else in “traditional counting stats”. Maybe the panel of arbitrators are all sabrematicians, but more likely they’re probably all just lawyers. None of this is rocket science and there’s no “pressuring players” to go to hearing etc. Contreras wants to make as much money as possible- that is after all the goal. I’m sure his representation did an analysis and opined he has a good shot at winning, so he decided to go to hearing.
  14. Jopal78
    Contreras knows what he’s doing. He has the better “traditional” stats than Cal Raleigh (avg. OBP, slg%, 2B, 3B, SB), and William is a multiple winner of the Silver slugger and two time All Star. He’s got a solid chance at getting his number and surely knows if he gets it his number this year his future earnings will exponentially increase the next two years. While it’s only a million dollars difference this year it likely means millions in career earnings so I’m sure he’ll also be disappointed if he loses.
  15. Jopal78
    Why would the Brewers clear the decks for Tyler Black anyways? He was outhit in AAA by several journeyman minor leaguers. I get it he’s a bonus baby and they have some cash invested, but nothing about Black screams difference maker. Bauer isn’t anything either but had a nice year as a pinch hitter for the Brewers last season.
  16. Jopal78
    That doesn’t happen either because agents take a percentage. Imagine if an Agent attempted to “push” or pressure a player, and got fired in the process;, they’d have invested all the time and effort only to get cut out of most of their fee.
  17. Jopal78
    Williams will probably get killed with all the hits he takes, but man it’s never over when he has the ball in his hand
  18. Jopal78
    Who wouldn’t trade Love straight up for Williams?
  19. Jopal78
    I wouldn’t imagine their thinking is different than any other year. They still have many of core group of players at the major league level who have won 360+ games over the last four years, so as usual they will go bargain shopping in late January and early February for some free agents to supplement the core group then head to camp figuring to compete for the NL Central title yet again.
  20. Jopal78
    You really think the Union pushes players to sign contracts where they don’t want to sign just for the sake of comps/benchmarks for the next player to hit free agency? Egads. Players almost universally go where the money is; because that’s what’s best for their livelihood. For example, Burnes’ AAV for the next two years places him 7th highest all time amongst pitchers, and if all goes right he gets to opt out in 2 years and try his luck again at even more money. Its nice for him he signed with the team local to where he makes his home, but really if another team would have offered better terms I’m sure it makes no difference to him where he is plying his trade.
  21. Jopal78
    There are way more rams than the Yankees who own their own TV Network which broadcasts their games: Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets and Red Sox. Some others teams have partial ownership interest in the network that carries their games. The Brewers are in the worst media market, hemmed in to the northwest by the Twins, the South west by the Cardinals, the East by the Tigers and the South by the Cubs and Sox. When video broadcast revenue is king, they have nowhere to really expand their local audience and can only try to turn out more viewers in a tiny geographic area
  22. Jopal78
    If I recall the strike in 1994 was over a salary cap. At that time the players would have agreed to a cap as long as the owners also agreed to a floor. Now, I don’t think the players will agree to a cap of any sort. Plus, there’s no reason for the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets etc. to share their local revenue. It’s their competitive advantage. Heck, the Dodgers probably cannot share their local revenue because of all the deferred money they’ve agreed to pay to Ohtani and others. If the Big Market Teams’ goal is to win a championship, sharing local revenue only makes that goal more difficult to attain, so it won’t ever happen.
  23. Jopal78
    It’s nice they made some snacks cheaper, but don’t be fooled that it’s some magnanimous overture; the high profit margin items (alcohol) are still full price and even at $2.00 they’re probably still making 100% profit on hot dogs and pop corn.
  24. Jopal78
    It has less to do with cash than playing time. Ian Happ and Crow-Armstrong are locked into LF and CF. Michael Busch is going to play everyday at 1B. When the Cubs traded for Tucker it meant the end of Bellinger (and possibly Seiya Suzuki) in Chicago. Given his anticipated production there was no reason to pay Bellinger nearly 60 million dollars the next two years to come off the bench and DH. What is interesting is if the Cubs had simply placed Bellinger on waivers would he have been claimed? Seems to me the Cubs kicked in cash to simply get a player in return: one who was a minor league free agent a year ago at this time.
  25. Jopal78
    Got any evidence of that? Sure it’s a huge media market in Chicago but here’s the 3 largest contracts ever handed out by the Ricketts family: Jason Heyward 8 yrs/184 million dollars, Dansby Swanson 7 yrs/177 million, Jon Lester 6 yrs/155 million. Never say never, but based on historical evidence It seems pretty unlikely the Cubs owners will suddenly authorize a contract for 10+ years and 350 + million dollars. In fact, they didn’t extend any of their World Series heroes over fewer dollars than that. Then there’s the question if that would even be an enticement for a top 10 hitter in baseball to sign an extension let alone forgo free agency. Tucker is a great player, but until proven otherwise he’s a one year rental on a 83 win team.
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