This is a message board on the internet, every argument is tired. Still, that is what outlier means so, yeah. I don't know why one third of the sample would carry more weight than two thirds of the sample. The problem I have here is that you are actually the one putting this in a vacuum. The context here is baseball, which we all know is built on the bones of "one hit wonders". Guys who came out of nowhere and had a great season and then disappeared only to be remembered fondly in threads just like this one. In that context, yes, 2017 is certainly the outlier for Jimmy and in no way is that trumped by the notion that the other two years don't count somehow. I've not once said he won't be 2017 Jimmy. I desperately hope he will be but given the actual context (which does include a serious shoulder injury), there is ample reason to question whether we will get 2017 Jimmy. I think a cautiously optimistic approach is far more reasonable than the sentiment that he is fully back to being a front line ace that some are espousing. Even more so, the notion that "he was an ace two years ago so he is an ace now" is far more tired than anything else. Ok then. Jimmy finished ninth in the Cy Young voting in 2017 so yeah i’d say he not only turn the corner but he was an ace. And I don’t think I’m the only one that thinks barring injury that he will be that pitcher again at some point in 2017. Based upon the evidence that I’ve seen I would say that is being “ cautiously optimistic “. Chase Anderson also put up ace-type numbers in 2017. I would say that was much more of an "outlier" than what Jimmy Nelson did in 2017, simply because he had proven to be an average major league pitcher over several seasons previous to 2017, and he returned to that mean in 2018. I don't think Jimmy Nelson had enough of a track record, though, to even have an "outlier" type season. If Nelson comes back this year to post similar numbers to what he put up in 2015-16, then yes, I would feel more comfortable saying that 2017 was the abnormality. But that history is yet to be written.