Fitzgerald's numbers are nice but this isn't an "MVP" of the rookies vote, it's just ROY and Fitzgerald, in my opinion, doesn't have the counting stats (and 50 to 60 games fewer) to measure up to the Jacksons. Same with Winn, getting a bit heavy lean to defense, which is great but this is traditionally a mostly offensively focused award and Chourio has him beat.
Merrill has 4.4 fWAR, Chourio 3.5, Winn & Fitzgerald 3.3 each. Skenes is a legit threat if he doesn't get shut down.
Barring a Skenes win this is Merrill's race to lose - unless Chourio goes nuclear (which I'm all for).