monty57

Why is everyone so hung up on offense? This is a team that was built on pitching. Their offense is 8th in baseball in Fangraphs WAR, and 10th in Runs scored. They aren't the most fun offense to watch because of their "all or nothing" approach, but the end results are a lot better than you'd think judging by all the flak the offense gets around here. Meanwhile, they're 14th in pitching WAR, and 18th in ERA, so we've had an above-average offense with an average pitching staff this year. Of course, most of our starting pitchers (the team's biggest strength) missed significant time due to injuries, which is really the reason we're not in the playoffs this year, so the thought of blowing everything up seems misguided. That we were so close to the playoffs while our starting rotation was in shambles most of the season seems like a positive to me. We do have a lot of talent hitting free agency following the 2024 season, so that will probably start being addressed this offseason with some trades. I'm think that trading Burnes and extending Woodruff could be a reality this offseason. Otherwise, we'll probably trade one this year, and the other next year. Both would bring back a ton of talent, some at the "MLB-ready" stage, and some still in the minors. Our starting pitching (assuming they stay healthier than this season) should still be a strength even if one of Burnes/Woodruff is traded. I expect Frelick and Mitchell to be opening day starters, and Turang has a good shot at a starting spot as well. Other than that, we will probably have a lot of the same players on the field. The main addition would be that a Burnes trade should bring in a good young player to "fill a hole" somewhere.

A deal involving Yelich would likely be something like the Reds and Mariners did this past off-season where the Reds had to give the Mariners Winker just to get rid of Suarez’s contract. I don’t want the Brewers to hand someone Burnes just to get out of paying Yelich, so no, I wouldn’t do the deal. Yelich isn’t worth what he’s being paid, but he’s still an above average MLB player who can help the team. When/if we trade guys like Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, we should get as much talent back as possible to play alongside guys like Yelich in hopes of winning a pennant. You only act like the Reds when you want to end up in the Reds’ current situation. We’re not shooting for a rebuild, we still want to win.

Every player who ever played, including everyone in the Hall of Fame, was "unproven" at some point in time. Prospects by nature are "unproven" at the MLB level. However, they are all "proven" to some degree or other at the prospect level. There's a reason guys get drafted early, get moved through the system quickly, and get some praise from outside sources. There is a huge variance in talent level when the term "prospect" is used. Most guys in the minors will never step on a major league field. Not that long ago, the Brewers had one of the worst farm systems in baseball. If at that time we were told that the team was going to hand some starting spots to our prospects, we should rightfully have been in an uproar. Things are a bit different now. Our farm isn't overflowing with talent like the Padres' system was before they traded everyone away, but we have guys who should be solid MLB players who are now ready for prime time. The group of Frelick, Mitchell, Weimer, Turang, Ruiz, Gasser and Small will produce some All-Star appearances over the next decade or so. Meanwhile, Chourio is drawing comps to guys like Soto, and if we do trade someone like Burnes, we will get some really talented young guys back. Not all of them will succeed, but that can also be said of "proven" MLB players. We just ate Cain's contract and spent $8.5M to get near-replacement-level production from McCutchen, so we have first-hand proof that paying for "proven" doesn't mean you'll get good production. So, when it's projected that we will probably have some rookies in the starting lineup, it's important to qualify that with something like "we will have some talented rookies in the starting lineup." They will have ups-and-downs like anyone else, but I am excited to see what they can do. Plus, by paying them league minimum, it can help us afford some of the "proven" guys who are talented as well.

I don't expect a Woodruff extension, but it would realistically be adding about two free agency years in '25 and '26, maybe a third in '27. It really wouldn't have any affect on what the team is able to spend in '23, as he'd be getting around what he'd be getting in arbitration. Yelich's contract pays him through '28, so his $26M/year will still be there, but the only other guaranteed money by that point will be $3.45M for Ashby, and an option for $8M for Peralta with a $1.5M buyout. Urias, Tellez, Williams, Taylor, Brosseau, Hiura, Milner, Topa, Perdomo, and Reyes would all be in arby if they're still around. None of these guys will break the bank, and some guys (like Williams) are almost certainly going to get traded prior to their final arby year. Heck, Peralta will probably get traded prior to his final year as well. Any prospect who is a rookie in 2023 (guys like Turang, Mitchell, and Frelick will probably fit this bill) would be in their final year of pre-arby in '25, so obviously the rest of our prospects will be behind them. Depending on what we get back from our upcoming trades, a significant portion of the '25 and '26 rosters could be pre-arby or early in the arby years, and some will probably be on Ashby/Peralta-type contracts. Depending on how the rookies play, we could be competitive next year with a payroll in the $100's - 110's. If guys like Burnes and Adames get traded over the next two off-seasons, adding a lot of cheap prospect talent to the mix, it is entirely possible that a Woodruff extension could fit into the team's payroll. Of course that would depend on how much he would demand. But, that's looking further into the future than this thread's title suggests. For '23, I expect a substantially lowered opening day payroll than this year's $132M. With that, I expect that Attanasio and Stearns will still be trying to remain competitive.

We had a lot of injuries to our starters this year, leading to a lot more games that the bullpen had to pitch a lot of innings. The more relievers you have to depend on in a game, the more likely that one of them is going to have an off day. Whether that's due to a starter leaving early due to injury, having to throw a "bullpen game" due to lack of healthy starters, starting a "AAAA guy" who only goes a few innings, or just pulling a starter early because they don't want to see him go through the order one more time, we seem to have had a lot of games that required a lot of bullpen arms.

Let's say Burnes is out of the question for an extension, but we could afford one of Woodruff or Adames. All else being equal, who would everyone choose to extend between those two? I think I'd go with Woodruff. With the pitching we have in the organization, having him as an "ace of staff" should help maintain our pitching as a strength, even as some of the other guys (Lauer, Houser, etc.) are traded or leave for free agency over the next few years. Meanwhile, most of our MLB ready prospects are position players. As they come up and help out offensively and defensively, we can move Turang to SS and still maintain a good "position player group." Even if Turang doesn't work out, I think it should be easier to find a SS than it would be to go out and sign another #1 pitcher.

Mainly that every pitcher is always a risk for Tommy John or some other arm injury, and every player on the wrong side of 30 is always a risk of "hitting the cliff" and being a shadow of their former self. We have a group of MLB ready prospects, and more that are a little further off. That should mean that we'll have a number of guys playing for league minimum in the coming years, so we could have room to sign another bigger contract. That's even more likely if we trade off some of the arby guys for more prospects. Others have mentioned this, but if the team decides they have the extra funds, it will probably be a choice between extending Woodruff or extending Adames. Neither would be easily replaced, but it's probably easier these days to find a good shortstop than it is to find an Ace pitcher. On the other hand, signing Woodruff would have more risk than signing Adames. Ideally, they could get Woodruff to sign a four-year deal, getting two extra years of service, but not taking the risk of signing a pitcher into his mid-30's.

I think they went over budget to add McCutchen this season. With the league-wide drop in ticket sales, and the Brewers hit harder than most, I think the ownership group is probably losing some money this season and will go into next year under the assumption that the ticket sales will be lower. Therefore, my guess it that the 2019 opening budget ($122M) will probably be the high-water mark for 2023 opening day payroll. I wouldn't be shocked if it's lower than that. This is probably why Hader was traded. Saving the $15M or so they would have paid him should probably drop them to somewhere around $115M after arbitration raises. If they don't exercise Wong's option, that would save another $8M. Then, they have to decide if they're going to make some trades, which could save quite a bit.

That’s a possibility, but with the new rule that gives a draft pick for rookies that start the season on the 26-man and end up in the top three vote getters for ROY, they may have him on the roster from the get-go. That was discussed when they were waiting to bring up Mitchell, so they’re definitely thinking about it. I guess it depends on how confident they are in how well guys like Frelick, Mitchell, and Turang will do and if they have a shot at ROY.

Because every year outside of 2022, Peterson has been around a replacement-level player. At 32, I think the odds are that this year is the outlier and re-signing him to be an everyday player would probably blow up on us. Banking on bad players to suddenly become consistently good players at a late stage in their career probably isn't a good bet. Adames will probably remain at SS, but barring an extension, that is probably a one-year thing, as we will likely trade him prior to his leaving as a free agent. His pending free agency is the reason he probably wouldn't want to move to 3B, but it's also the reason that we need to have a long-term replacement plan in place. Turang is the "heir apparent," so whether they move Adames off short or not for 2023, Turang will likely be the guy who's manning that spot in 2024 and beyond. The short-term nature of Adames doesn't change regardless of whether he is SS or 3B. The only way that changes is if the Brewers decide to extend him. That's really the only point were the team should be overly concerned about keeping him happy long-term. Otherwise, the team should put the players in the positions where they think they will win the most games in 2023, and then trade Adames after the season.

Turang has been young for every level, so his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but it also means that he could be kept down. There's no huge rush to get him on the MLB roster. I've been posting a lot of positives about Wong, and reasons they may keep him. He'll probably be worth the $10M he'd be paid. The reasons for not exercising his option are basically that the Brewers could save $8M by letting him walk, which could be used elsewhere, and that his defense has declined significantly and he is really a platoon player at this point. Meanwhile, Turang would play for league minimum and is supposed to be very good defensively. He's got very little power, but makes good contact and should get on base. Another option would be to move Urias to 2B. He still hits better than the average major leaguer (wRC+ over 100), and hits righties and lefties, he's just not good defensively on the left-side of the infield. He could be a positive player at 2B. I think his approach has him in the doghouse, but he's a valid option. As I've said, it's not a "slam dunk" decision. A good case could be made for going down multiple different roads.

It's all speculation now, but it will be interesting to see how the Brewers navigate the next few years. We will either trade some guys and add a few rookies to the roster over the next few years, or we will lose a bunch of guys to free agency and go into rebuild without the extra firepower of the guys we would have received if we had traded some people (does that make sense?). I think that we are going to have to trust some rookies each year. Turang, Frelick and Mitchell will probably play significant roles in 2023. If we do trade one of Burnes/Woodruff, we will probably target guys who are either in AAA or have limited MLB experience. I guess when it comes down to it, I would rather trust some talented rookies instead of trusting less-talented veterans. There is risk to everyone, and we're at the point where we're going to start some rookies. It's a fun "experiment" to think about the prospects we could bring in if we were to clean house and trade away all the pending FAs, but I highly doubt that's what's going to happen. We're going to have to trust some prospects, but we're still going to try to remain competitive.

I've mentioned moving Adames to 3B, and think it could be a good idea. Turang is a natural SS, and Urias' best position is probably 2B (or, to topic we could exercise Wong's option). Your notion of extending Adames makes sense, and might allow for him to make the move to 3B. Would really just depend on how likely it is to extend him. He'd be a nice player to hold on to. I also think that they could pick up a 3B through trade. A couple of guys who have been mentioned are Baty from the Mets and Jung from Texas. These are really good prospects, and if we're going to trade one of Burnes/Woodruff, they are guys who could be targeted.

I have no ill-will for Hader. The only reason I hope he trips up a bit is because the Brewers are chasing the Padres for the final playoff spot, so any of their players doing poorly helps the Brewers in that regard. Since the trade is done, what I hope is that the players the Brewers received do well. Rogers hasn't performed up to expectations, so the my hopes really lie on Ruiz and Gasser. Either one of these guys could make this a "win" for the Brewers if they can have a good six years in Milwaukee. If both of them make it to the show and provide positive value, I will be happy, regardless of how Hader pitches next year. Since coming to Nashville, Gasser has looked pretty good in his limited time (21.1 IP). He's walked too many guys (6.75 BB/9), leading to a 1.50 WHIP, but he has an ERA of 3.38, with a .208 BAA/.624 OPS against, and 10.55 K/9. He is probably going to be a big part of what we hope will keep the Brewers competitive in the coming years. In my opinion, Ruiz is probably #4 out of the Frelick/Mitchell/Weimer/Ruiz group, but he should be an exciting player who has already had a taste of the MLB. At best, he'll get on base a lot and lead the league in stolen bases. At worst, he should at least be a MLB 4th OF, so we should get some value out of him.

I like Brosseau and hope he's back, but only as a platoon / utility guy who mainly starts against LHP. We need guys on the roster who can hit lefties, and Brosseau has done that his whole career. He is a bad defender wherever you put him, and he has a career wRC+ of 86 vs RHP, so I really don't want him penciled in as an everyday guy. I like the year Peterson has had, and his versatility is valuable. I have no faith that he will put up good numbers as an everyday player even for one more year, much less for the multi-year deal he's likely to sign. Let someone else make the mistake of thinking that he's suddenly "found it" at age 32 and can continue his success through a multi-year deal. Urias has shown that he's not good defensively at SS or 3B, and should probably be moved to 2B. However, if someone put the proverbial gun to my head and asked which of the three would be the best everyday 3B for the next couple of years, I think Urias would outperform (total value) Brosseau or Peterson as an everyday 3B. So, if we're not going to fix the problem by finding an actual third baseman, then we should just go with Urias and not try to convince ourselves that either a career journeyman who had a career year at age 32, or a guy who plays poor defense but can hit LHP well are good options as an everyday 3B for a team that hopes to win their division in 2023. As to Turang, he has played 2B, but only has 44 games there through his minor league career. He's mainly a SS, but would likely be able to play 2B for a season until Adames is gone (probably after next season), at which time he'll probably move over to SS. If the Brewers do acquire a 3B, then Endaround has a valid point that Urias could be our everyday 2B, meaning that Wong's option could be declined and Turang could remain in AAA for a bit longer. He is still young, so that wouldn't hurt him. A whole lot of the Brewers' problems could be helped out by simply finding a good third baseman.

With only twelve games left in the season, I'm guessing that he won't be up until opening day 2023. I hope that he and Mitchell will be regulars on the 2023 team, and due to the new draft pick compensation, I think they'll both be up on opening day. Of course, a lot will happen this offseason.

To the four mentioned in this article: 1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go. 2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M. 3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher. 4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers.

To the four mentioned in this article: 1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go. 2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M. 3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher. 4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers.

Frelick's "it factor" seems to be that he has a good eye at the plate and knows how to make good contact. That used to be something front offices looked for, but has gone out of favor due to the new-found love of "launch angle." I like that the Brewers seem to be looking for "bat to ball" guys, as I think the love for launch angle is overdone. If Yelich has permanently turned into an OBP guy, then having him and Frelick at the top of the order with some power guys behind them should be a good thing. He and Mitchell are different players, as I think Mitchell has more power potential, but isn't quite as consistent at getting the bat on the ball. I'm excited for both of them, but since Frelick has been more consistent (and less injured) through his MiLB career, I also think that he should have been the guy called up. His OBP skills are really what this year's team could use.

I posted Tuesday that Wong had a wRC+ vs RHP of 130. Hitting 3 HR in a night is a nice surprise, but he's hit RHP really well all year. His overall numbers are lower because he's been horrible against LHP, but as the "big side of a platoon" guy he's a nice player to have around, and offensively a Wong/Brosseau platoon is really good. Defensively, not so much. As I said earlier, it seems likely that the Brewers decline the option and save $8M, making a spot for Turang. But I don't think it's a "slam dunk" move, as Wong is probably worth the $10M he'd be paid. Having "too much talent" at a position is probably a good problem to have going into an off-season, so we'll see how Stearns works this out.

Per MLB.com, Alvarez (Catcher) is the top prospect in baseball, with Baty (3B/OF) #18. Nate82's Orioles trade included Rodriguez (SP) who is #4 overall, and Holliday (SS) #13. I love the thought of getting this back, but we need to be sure to temper our expectations. If we are able to net a Top 5 overall prospect, but the other guys are a little further down the list, it'd still be a good haul. That said, I'd love either of these deals. The Orioles trade would give us a guy who could step right into the rotation and potentially be an ace in a couple years to go along with an 18-year-old who is ranked three spots behind Chourio, so it'd be cool to see those guys coming up. The Mets trade would immediately shore up our third base and catcher spots for the next six years. It would potentially have us starting five rookies on opening day next year, but they'd be a talented group of rookies. Maybe it's a pipe dream, but maybe that would allow for the Brewers to extend Woodruff out a couple of years. Here's a question for you. If it would take adding someone like Ruiz to the trade, would you do it in order to get one of the packages listed above?

Whether the value would be equal or not (I don't believe it is), the only reason the Brewers will trade Burnes or Woodruff is because they are going to be free agents soon. We will not trade them for a player that will be entering free agency the same time as Burnes/Woodruff.

I don't know if he played SS. He was a 2B, but was moved off of second because they didn't think he could play the position well. I think his ability to play 2B in the majors would be in emergency only. He's relatively new to the OF, so he still has to learn the position but has speed to believe that he could be a good defender when he has more reps. He got the call-up this year because his option is already burned, but he would be the last OF I'd bring up next year. Let him learn how to play OF by playing everyday in AAA.

That pretty much sums it up. The posts discussing which one has sucked worse seem to be nothing more than validating a person's initial feelings about the trade. The Brewers have two promising prospects and should have some extra money to spend next year. The Padres have Hader for another year. I do wish they would have worked it out so we kept Lamet.

I didn't realize how sheltered Peterson has been vs LHP. Wong started the year as an everyday player, but they started platooning him because of his poor play this year vs LHP. Even with that, Wong has 92 PA vs LHP, while Peterson only has 34. Last year he had 55. With such a small sample, anything can happen, such as Peterson's 110 wRC+ vs LHP this year, when it was 81 last year. It's possible that someone sees him as an everyday guy, and even as a platoon player, he could start around 4/5 of the games. But, as I've said before, this year looks like the outlier for his career, and at age 32 players usually don't start getting better. If he ends up getting a shorter-term deal (1-2years) at a relatively cheap rate, I'm fine with the Brewers re-signing him. Even then, I think there's a decent chance that he reverts to his normal sub-1 WAR self. That's fine as a "super utility guy" to give other players a rest. It isn't fine if you are signing him to be your everyday third baseman, or even the "big side of the platoon" guy at third. He did what he did this year, and the 2023 Brewers will have to find a way to get that production from somewhere. I just don't think that they could expect that signing Peterson would mean that he would re-create his 2022 season. It is probably going to be his career year.