monty57

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

Yes. I keep hearing "we can't waste..." First, it was Fielder, Weeks, and Braun. Then it was Braun and Yelich. Now it's Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta. The thing is, we've continued to win because we haven't "emptied the farm." As long as you can continue to stock the farm, you can continue to have "windows" to win. The players change, but the team remains "continually competitive," which has been the stated goal for the Brewers. We have had the most successful decade+ in the history of the franchise, and we're still going strong. I'm more interested in seeing what we get back when we trade away some guys in the next couple of seasons to remain competitive for the next decade than I am in destroying our future to land one player now. If we were to trade for Ohtani now, we would have to trade him away this offseason. We can't empty the farm and then lose the player to free agency. That would be devastating to the Brewer franchise.

Hadn't seen this posted here yet. MLBTradeRumors says that the Brewers may have some interest in the Atros' Jose Siri. Can't imagine it would take too much to get him, and he has a lot of team control and potential. Problem is he strikes out a ton. Thoughts?? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/astros-trade-rumors-jose-siri.html

Doesn't seem to be a big haul. MLBTradeRumors says "Way is the headliner of the return, tweeting that he looks like a possible mid-rotation starter." A nearly 23-year-old "possible mid-rotation starter" and two lottery tickets doesn't seem to be a high price tag. But, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The Royals obviously liked something about the prospects they got, or at least they liked them more than what anyone else was offering. As to Benintendi, I think his plate discipline and contact would have been welcome in the Brewer lineup. We've scored a high percentage of our runs on home runs, so we could've used his contact/OBP bat in the lineup.

I'll try to be optimistic here for a minute. I think Attanasio would fork over the $8-9M Soto is due for this year, so the big question is "can we afford Soto next year?" Recently I figured that if the Brewers keep their current guys, they would be around the same payroll as they started this year (low $130's), but they are losing McCutchen, Narvaez, and Peterson (and of course won't be paying Cain). So, could they field a team and pay Soto in 2023? Let's assume he'll make $25M (he's at $17.1M and will be going into his 2nd arby year). -If they do not exercise Wong's option, he will receive a $2M buyout rather than a $10M salary. Replace him with Turang at league minimum, and you are saving around $7.25M. Of course, Turang may not be here if he's traded to Washington. -Hunter Renfroe would no longer be needed, as Soto and Yelich would be the corner OF. Trading Renfroe should save around $10M as my guess for his Year 4 arby number. -I had Hiura at $1.25M, and he's probably gone. That spot will have to go to someone, but could be a small savings of around $500,000. Or, maybe they just hold him if they have to trade Renfroe and can't afford a different DH. -Hader will be going into his final year of team control, and he'll probably make $15M. Trading just him could allow for the team to hold onto Renfroe as the DH, and pick up a young player to fill one of the holes we traded away for Soto. -With Ashby now signed, and Small on the cusp, it is probable that one of our starters is dealt. Even if it's Houser or Lauer, that could save enough around $4M. Wong's $7.25, Hader's $15M, Houser/Lauer's $4m (all estimates except Wong) pay for Soto. C - Severino/Caratini 1B - Tellez 2B - Turang SS - Adames 3B - Urias LF - Yelich CF - Taylor RF - Soto DH - Renfroe SP - Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer/Houser, Ashby Then in the offseason after the 2023 season, we do a Marlins-style selloff, trading Soto, Woodruff, Burnes, Houser/Lauer (whichever isn't traded), and Adames in one offseason to completely rebuild the farm so we don't have to face a decade-long rebuild. It would be entirely possible that we would be trading a reigning MVP and Cy Young winner in the same offseason. I still don't think we'll get him, but it is fun to think about.

The Cardinals only seem to do these type of deals when they've been allowed to talk to the player and his agent and have an understanding that a long-term extension will happen. However, as @Jopal78 mentioned, it would be tough for them to fit that contract into their payroll along with all their other guys. I'm always worried about the Cardinals, and the thought of them bringing in Soto worries me, so I hope he lands elsewhere.

Lathund said it well. Bell is having a great year, but hasn't had a great career. Bell doesn't replace our worst bat, he plays 1B/DH, so he replaces either Tellez or McCutchen on any given day, so we'd probably get a player who is slightly better than what we have. I hope Stearns/Attanasio don't get antsy and give up too much. Our depth is minor league OF, so I'd try to package a deal around the "second tier" of our outfielders. Of course, there's always the caveat that Hiura is there if the opposing team is interested.

Lathund said it well. Bell is having a great year, but hasn't had a great career. Bell doesn't replace our worst bat, he plays 1B/DH, so he replaces either Tellez or McCutchen on any given day, so we'd probably get a player who is slightly better than what we have. I hope Stearns/Attanasio don't get antsy and give up too much. Our depth is minor league OF, so I'd try to package a deal around the "second tier" of our outfielders. Of course, there's always the caveat that Hiura is there if the opposing team is interested.

Exactly. That's why I brought up that they might have to add Corbin just to bring Soto's value down far enough that there is a team out there that they can make a trade with. Looking at MLB.com's Top 100: The Mets have Francisco Alvarez (#2), Brett Baty (#20), and Ronny Mauricio (#52) and the richest owner in the league who seems to be trying to break spending records. The Orioles have three Top 50 guys, but they're not trading for Soto Detroit could possibly form a deal around Riley Greene and Jackson Jobe, but they're not going to trade for Soto Arizona has two Top 50 + #73, but they're not trading for Soto The Blue Jays have Gabriel Moreno (#6), Orelvis Martinez (#36), Ricky Tiedemann (#63), and Jordan Groshans (#84). Plus, they have young talent at the MLB level. St Louis has Jordan Walker (#7), Matthew Liberatore (#45), Ivan Herrera (#82), Masyn Winn (#89), Gordon Graceffo (#100) plus they have two young OFs at the MLB level. The Yankees have Anthony Volpe (#8), Oswald Peraza (#38), Jasson Dominguez (#39), Austin Wells (#71), and Ken Waldichuk (#72) plus they won't hesitate to spend money. San Fran has Marco Luciano (#9), Kyle Harrison (#25), and Luis Matos (#65) The Dodgers have Diego Cartaya (#13), Bobby Miller (#26), Michael Busch (#42), Andy Pages (#47), Miguel Vargas (#70), Ryan Pepiot (#75), and the biggest TV deal in baseball, so money isn't a concern. Boston has Marcelo Mayer (#10), Triston Casas (#14), Brayan Bello (#44), Nick Yorke (#64) Cleveland has a hoard of Top 100 guys, but they probably aren't trading for Soto. Marlins have three Top 50 guys, but aren't trading for Soto Texas has Jack Leiter (#16), Josh Jung (#30), Ezequiel Duran (#56), Juistin Foscue (#61), Cole Winn (#79), and Owen White (#93) Pittsburgh has five Top 50 guys (!!) but aren't going to be trading for Soto. Seattle only has one Top 50 (Noelvi Marte #19) and two other Top 100 guys, so unless they'd trade Julio, they may be out. The Rockies have Zac Veen (#22) and three other Top 100 guys, but probably aren't trading for Soto. After all the trades and promotions, San Diego's system is finally thinning out, with Robert Hassell III (#23) and two other Top 100 guys. Cincy has two Top 50 guys and two other Top 100 guys, but they won't be trading for Soto. The Cubs have one Top 50 guy and three other Top 100 guys, but won't be trading for Soto. The A's have two Top 50 guys and one other Top 100, but won't be trading for Soto. The Rays have one Top 50 guy, and two others in the Top 100, and don't have the money to trade for Soto. And then, after all of those teams, the Brewers have Chourio (#37), Frelick (#48), and Wiemer (#62) without many young MLB players nor the money to afford Soto. There are a lot of teams who could offer the Nationals a lot more than the Brewers could offer, whether or not that included picking up Corbin's contract. I'd guess that he'll end up on one of the Mets, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, or Rangers.

To add to your point, Fangraphs has the Brewers with a 5.1% chance to win the World Series. The Dodgers and Astros are the current favorites at 16%, followed by the Mets at 13.9%. Adding Soto would up our odds, but we would still be underdogs in the playoffs, and would probably still end up playing as the #3 seed, which means we'd be in the Wild Card games. We would almost certainly have to trade some good players prior to next year just to make payroll, and wouldn't have any money to fill any other holes in the roster, so we probably wouldn't be better going into next year than we were going into this year. There is no way that we could afford to go into 2024 with Soto, Yelich and anyone else who would make any money. So, if we were to do this, I think we'd be looking at trading the farm for a "rental" for the season, and would be trading him away this offseason to replenish what we traded away. That would be the only way financially it would make any sense. Attanasio might be willing to eat $8-9M this year to increase the odds of winning it all (and getting some money from the fan fervor of adding Soto), but I don't think he'll go into next year with an opening day payroll of something like the $160-$170M it would take to retain our stars and field a team around them.

The Brewers do have a "TBD" as a starter for tomorrow's game, so he could be up for that. They could also be looking at using him in the 'pen for the remainder of the season. He had 77.1 IP last year, and is at 75.1 so far this year. Figure he'll probably get 25-30 innings out of the pen if he stays up the rest of the year, will get some experience facing MLB hitters, and will be on pace to fit into the rotation next year depending on what the Brewers decide to do this offseason. I'm not always a fan of bringing up starters and putting them in the bullpen, but it might make sense if they're trying to cap Small's innings for the rest of the year.

I don't know if things have changed, but I read an article a couple of years ago that stated that due to the cost of the insurance, most teams were only insuring the big, franchise-crippling contracts. I think this deal is probably small enough that the Brewers are willing to take the risk and eat the contract if Ashby gets injured or under-performs to the level that they let him go. Because they know that Ashby is talented, the risk of this contract is pretty small for the team. Even if he under-performs, he wouldn't be that over-paid even if he ends up being a middle-reliever. Meanwhile, we know the risk of signing a big deal to a guy who is further along in his career. Even if Yelich turns into a solid .400 OBP lead-off guy, he's still going to be grossly overpaid through his extension. Give me contracts like this any day, and plan an exit strategy over the years of team control for anyone who isn't willing to extend.

Soto is interesting because there probably isn't a team with a farm strong enough to match Soto's value, so the acquiring team would probably have to take a bad contract (Corbin) back in trade just to lessen the value of what Washington is sending. Then, the acquiring team has to know going into it that he is going to play to free agency and then walk, so unless they plan on trading for him for one year and then trading him to someone else, they are going to empty out their farm and then lose Soto to free agency in two years, so it's really a "go all in" venture. Soto is making $17.1M with two years of arby remaining, so he's probably due for something like $25M next year and $30M in 2024. Then throw in my earlier notion that the acquiring team may have to bring on another contract just to bring Soto's value down enough to make a suitable trade. Corbin is signed for $23.4M this year, $24.4M in 2023, and $35M in 2024. Even if we didn't have to add a second salary, we couldn't afford to add Soto's salary to our payroll. If somehow we were able to afford him, and somehow our prospects were enough for Washington to accept a deal, and somehow we wouldn't have to trade away multiple other players to avoid bankruptcy, we could have a pretty good team with the addition of Soto to the lineup. We would be the worst team in the history of baseball in 2025 after losing Soto, Woodruff, Burnes, Houser, Lauer and Adames and having no farm because they were all traded to Washington, but the party would be fun until the lights came on. I just don't think it's realistic to think that we could add Soto to our payroll and still keep the other stars around, and it wouldn't make sense to trade for Soto if we needed to trade away our other good players in order to make payroll work.

The last time he played there regularly was in 2018 (136 games at 3B), and his defense was bad: -10.9 RngR, -2.5 ErrR, -16 UZR, -24.5 UZR/150. He's only played 12 games at 3B since, so even though the data looks bad -59 UZR/150, -65.8 UZR/150, 0.9 UZR/150, there aren't enough games to tell. I'd say that he probably shouldn't be looked at as a guy to target as a third baseman that would move Urias off third. At this point, he's turned into a roughly average fielding LF, and we've already got one of those signed for a while.

They traded Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for Tyler Webb in 2017. He was also an All Star this year. But, the point is still valid. Stearns & Co. do not have a track record of trading away their top prospects since they traded for Yelich.

They traded Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for Tyler Webb in 2017. He was also an All Star this year. But, the point is still valid. Stearns & Co. do not have a track record of trading away their top prospects since they traded for Yelich.

And this is why the Brewers need to (and it looks like they are) offer extensions to all of their promising youngsters in their first year or two with the MLB club. Once players get to their arby years, teams are basically paying market price for the free agent years they're buying out. The Brewers can't afford to do that. I'm fine if they miss every now and then and have to pay an underperformer a little too much money, as long as they can occasionally get an extra few years from a Lucroy/Peralta type player. As we saw with Lucroy, this also gives him a lot of trade value if they decide to trade him with a year or two left on the deal.

I'm of the "Don't trade players you have plans for" line of thought. I think that Turang will be our 2B next year (allowing us to save $8M on Wong), so I wouldn't trade him. I think the Frelick will be our CF soon, so don't trade him. I think they probably want Wiemer to replace Renfroe, but that may be a year and a half off, so I wouldn't want to trade him, but he could be had for the right price. We'll need pitching as we're losing our starting rotation in a couple of years, so I would be very hesitant to trade away starting pitchers, especially the ones like Small who are nearing MLB-ready status. Chourio is looking like he could be the next young MLB phenom, so he has to be untouchable. We have a surplus of minor league OFs, so I think that Mitchell is one of our prime trade chips, and looking at the Rule 5 guys from previous posts, Lutz and Gray should probably be dangled, as their path to the majors in Milwaukee is pretty hard. Of course Hiura will be on the market, we'll just have to see if any rebuilding team wants to take a shot on him. I don't expect anything major, as we'll need our prospects to make their way on the MLB team to keep payroll under control for the next few years. However, we have enough young OFs to dangle that we should be able to get some meaningful upgrades for the offense/bullpen this season.

I'm of the "Don't trade players you have plans for" line of thought. I think that Turang will be our 2B next year (allowing us to save $8M on Wong), so I wouldn't trade him. I think the Frelick will be our CF soon, so don't trade him. I think they probably want Wiemer to replace Renfroe, but that may be a year and a half off, so I wouldn't want to trade him, but he could be had for the right price. We'll need pitching as we're losing our starting rotation in a couple of years, so I would be very hesitant to trade away starting pitchers, especially the ones like Small who are nearing MLB-ready status. Chourio is looking like he could be the next young MLB phenom, so he has to be untouchable. We have a surplus of minor league OFs, so I think that Mitchell is one of our prime trade chips, and looking at the Rule 5 guys from previous posts, Lutz and Gray should probably be dangled, as their path to the majors in Milwaukee is pretty hard. Of course Hiura will be on the market, we'll just have to see if any rebuilding team wants to take a shot on him. I don't expect anything major, as we'll need our prospects to make their way on the MLB team to keep payroll under control for the next few years. However, we have enough young OFs to dangle that we should be able to get some meaningful upgrades for the offense/bullpen this season.

Fair enough. You never know with a rookie. He could hit the ground running and be a nice "shot in the arm" for our offense, but he could experience "growing pains." It's probably safer if Stearns can find a veteran "rental," but I agree with Outlander. If they can't find someone by the deadline, I think I'm ready to take the risk on Frelick rather than continuing with the Taylor / Davis experiment. Taylor has proven to be a good 4th OF, but he seems to be below average as a starting CF, and Davis is probably best used as a 5th OF/defensive replacement and isn't someone you want to count on to start for extended periods.

I don't know if this has anything to do with his performance or not, but he and his wife just had their first child. I know when my wife and I had our first child I was sleep deprived and pretty much non-functional for several months. I can't imagine trying to keep up with an MLB schedule and close out games with a newborn at home. I don't know if that's what's going on, but I think he'll be fine once he gets through the early stages of being a first-time dad. Sometimes I think fans forget that these guys are human, and the same things that affect us "normal folk" affect them as well. I hope the Haders are enjoying every minute of parenthood, but I also hope Josh got a few full nights of sleep during the All Star break.

Do you not like the idea of bringing Frelick up because you don't want to start his clock, or because you don't think he's ready? I still have hopes for Mitchell, but at this point it's looking like Frelick is the CF of the future for the Brewers. The question is when the future begins. It would sure help the Brewers out if it's sooner rather than later.

It's not the craziest idea. It's not uncommon for players to make the jump from AA to the majors, and Frelick is 22 years old. His current line in Biloxi is .317 / .374 / .441 / .815. If I recall correctly, the salt air in Biloxi is kind of like San Diego where it's a little better for pitchers than hitters, for whatever that's worth.

While I highly doubt that the Brewers will trade away their closer when they're in first place, if the Dodgers called offering Busch and Pages, or the Phillies offered Painter and Abel, I think Hader would end this season on a different team.