monty57

Good to hear we got another one out of the way at not too bad a price. What is the date deals need to be struck by in order to avoid arbitration? Also, from another JS post: Among the many other topics Melvin addressed on this stop of the Brewers' winter tour, he said he doesn't expect to sign another starting pitcher before spring training. Of course, that could change if the market continues to fall and somebody drops in his lap at a reasonable price. It looks like Seth will be our #5, and God save us if we have any injuries.

Graffanino was in a similar situation when he eventually accepted arbitration from the Brewers. He was pretty upset at the way the rules are set up, as it had happened to him once before. He knew no team would be willing to give up a first rounder for him, so he accepted arby and came back to the Brewers for another year. Since he got hurt and never played again, he definitely would have been better off getting a 3-year deal from someone. The rules definitely aren't in favor of the lesser-skilled Type A guys. Of course, a team that finished in the bottom half of the standings could still sign Cruz, as they would only have to give up their second rounder. That's one way of gaining a little bit of parity... the worse teams will be able to bid on some good but not great teams that the better teams aren't willing to give up a draft pick on. The Washington example is a good idea, as they will still have a first rounder, and would "only" lose their second, third and fourth rounders if they signed three Type A FAs. Of course, they have to find people willing to play there, which has been their big hurdle to this point.

It's hard to know what Towers is thinking or what he is forced by payroll to do, but I would bet that come trade deadline, some team in the playoff hunt would be willing to part with more than #6 starters and mid-tier prospects in a trade for Peavy. Due to the situation, San Diego may be forced to trade Peavy now, in which case they will lose big time. If they have any chance to hold off, they should be able to get better offers than they are currently receiving for a player of Peavy's stature.

Another question is: "Do we have any blocked prospects we can trade to get a starting pitcher?" I realize that Olson could fizzle and Pie can be a good player, but I'd love to have another SP with major league experience in the Brewers' system.

Weirdos, that's exactly the point I was trying to go for. It's all about value and price. If you are getting the correct value in return, you would be willing to make the trade. If not, you don't do it. What you can do with the extra money is what economists call your opportunity cost, and, as you stated in the original post, that has to be considered in the value of the deal. While you are correct that some posters fail to recognize opportunity costs, I think there was a lot of discussion on what we would do with the savings in the earlier discussion threads, and as I mentioned earlier, I think Melvin was only looking to do the Cameron deal for the savings. You car example is probably better than my TV, as there is a future stream of payments involved. In the Cameron deal, we were willing to trade NY a well-running older sports car we still owed a big one-year lease agreement on for a more economical compact car that would still get us from point A to point B for a cheaper price. Some people would laugh at us for driving this compact vehicle, but hey, at least we're able to drive it for a couple of years, and it would allow us to buy the work truck that would help our business. Then, the Yankees insisted that we also take a broken down Yugo that they were conned into paying Porsche prices for. Since paying for the Yugo while driving the compact would keep us from buying our work truck, we decided to keep our well-running sports car through it's one-year rental agreement. Confusing enough?

So... what type SP will we be able to sign for $5MM? Maybe that idea of bringing back Gary Glover wasn't so far fetched after all.

The big market / big revenue owners don't want a salary cap because they gain a competitive advantage in the current system. Teams like the Yankees and to a lesser extent Cubs can spend more than mid- and small- revenue teams and still turn a big profit. They will always be able to get the high priced free agents and give themselves a better chance of winning, which keeps the fans happy and keeps more revenue coming in. Of course, some teams (the Orioles and recently the Mariners) can bungle this advantage, and some teams (the Twins, A's and recently Brewers and Rays) can be competitive for a period despite the inherant disadvantage, but the advantage still exists. As bork commented, a salary cap probably won't happen because first the team owners have to agree, which is not likely to happen. Then, if somehow the owners can agree, they have to bring it to the bargaining table, and the Union won't agree to it unless it can somehow assure that the players will make more money.

It's good to see that Melvin is getting these out of the way early. I think he's trying to get a little "certainty" so that he can make a run at another pitcher.

Is it kind of odd that your average little league coach tries out players defensively and fits them to the position that best suits their talent, but the Brewers will stick a square peg in a round hole because maybe in three or four years it will somehow fit?

Game05, didn't Melvin state that after the Cameron trade fell through the Brewers weren't going to have enough extra cash to sign a starter and a closer? I think Melvin was looking to do this deal so that he could fill the holes at starter and closer. The deal fell through and he immediately went to the table with the agents for Wood, Hoffman and Fuentes. None looked like they were going to sign, so he started to pursue Looper. That didn't work out, and they "aggressively went after" Hoffman, who signed, leaving us with a closer and no serviceable starter that won't begin the year in the rotation. I really think the primary reason they were looking to make that deal was that they could use the money on pitching. Once NY said they needed money back or Igawa thrown into the deal, it fell through. If Melvin thought Cabrera was a good long term solution, he would have made the deal for Cabrera and Igawa, as we would have saved money and got a long term solution at CF. It seems to me that in Melvin's mind, Cabrera + $9.5MM had equal value to Cameron @ $10MM, but Cabrera, Igawa and roughly $5MM has less value than Cameron @ $10MM

Roderick, I think the Howard card will definitely be played, but Howard had won the Rookie of the Year award and was coming off a season in which he had just won the MVP. I believe that these awards (whether right or wrong) play a somewhat significant role in what the player is paid. I believe arbitrators look at two year averages and HR, RBI & batting average hold a lot of clout: Howard 2006/2007 averages (hit arby year one in 2008) HR 52.5, RBI 142.5, avg .292 Prince HR 42, RBI 110, avg. .282 Prince's numbers are very good, but he would probably have had to repeat his 2007 numbers to be considered in Howard's category using only these stats. Now, Howard is older than Prince, and is in his prime years putting up these numbers while Prince is doing it at a very young age, but I don't believe age is considered in arby. I've heard a number of players and GMs say that they hate going to arby, because basically the team has to rip into all of the bad things about the player. That's why most players come to a one-year deal before arby. As I said earlier, I think Prince is likely to go to arby, and I think it will be ugly. If he was upset about his contract last year, I think he's going to be furious after he has to sit in and listen to Melvin tell him he's getting too fat to play 1B and discuss his terrible defense and the dropoff in his numbers from 2007 to 2008. The best-case scenario is that they sign a deal before it comes to arby The probable (in my mind) scenario is they go to arby and Prince ends up somewhere around $7MM The worst case scenario is they go to arby and Prince comes out demanding a trade. With his personality I think this could happen.

Roderick, I think the Howard card will definitely be played, but Howard had won the Rookie of the Year award and was coming off a season in which he had just won the MVP. I believe that these awards (whether right or wrong) play a somewhat significant role in what the player is paid. I believe arbitrators look at two year averages and HR, RBI & batting average hold a lot of clout: Howard 2006/2007 averages (hit arby year one in 2008) HR 52.5, RBI 142.5, avg .292 Prince HR 42, RBI 110, avg. .282 Prince's numbers are very good, but he would probably have had to repeat his 2007 numbers to be considered in Howard's category using only these stats. Now, Howard is older than Prince, and is in his prime years putting up these numbers while Prince is doing it at a very young age, but I don't believe age is considered in arby. I've heard a number of players and GMs say that they hate going to arby, because basically the team has to rip into all of the bad things about the player. That's why most players come to a one-year deal before arby. As I said earlier, I think Prince is likely to go to arby, and I think it will be ugly. If he was upset about his contract last year, I think he's going to be furious after he has to sit in and listen to Melvin tell him he's getting too fat to play 1B and discuss his terrible defense and the dropoff in his numbers from 2007 to 2008. The best-case scenario is that they sign a deal before it comes to arby The probable (in my mind) scenario is they go to arby and Prince ends up somewhere around $7MM The worst case scenario is they go to arby and Prince comes out demanding a trade. With his personality I think this could happen.

Roderick, I think the Howard card will definitely be played, but Howard had won the Rookie of the Year award and was coming off a season in which he had just won the MVP. I believe that these awards (whether right or wrong) play a somewhat significant role in what the player is paid. I believe arbitrators look at two year averages and HR, RBI & batting average hold a lot of clout: Howard 2006/2007 averages (hit arby year one in 2008) HR 52.5, RBI 142.5, avg .292 Prince HR 42, RBI 110, avg. .282 Prince's numbers are very good, but he would probably have had to repeat his 2007 numbers to be considered in Howard's category using only these stats. Now, Howard is older than Prince, and is in his prime years putting up these numbers while Prince is doing it at a very young age, but I don't believe age is considered in arby. I've heard a number of players and GMs say that they hate going to arby, because basically the team has to rip into all of the bad things about the player. That's why most players come to a one-year deal before arby. As I said earlier, I think Prince is likely to go to arby, and I think it will be ugly. If he was upset about his contract last year, I think he's going to be furious after he has to sit in and listen to Melvin tell him he's getting too fat to play 1B and discuss his terrible defense and the dropoff in his numbers from 2007 to 2008. The best-case scenario is that they sign a deal before it comes to arby The probable (in my mind) scenario is they go to arby and Prince ends up somewhere around $7MM The worst case scenario is they go to arby and Prince comes out demanding a trade. With his personality I think this could happen.

Roderick, I think the Howard card will definitely be played, but Howard had won the Rookie of the Year award and was coming off a season in which he had just won the MVP. I believe that these awards (whether right or wrong) play a somewhat significant role in what the player is paid. I believe arbitrators look at two year averages and HR, RBI & batting average hold a lot of clout: Howard 2006/2007 averages (hit arby year one in 2008) HR 52.5, RBI 142.5, avg .292 Prince HR 42, RBI 110, avg. .282 Prince's numbers are very good, but he would probably have had to repeat his 2007 numbers to be considered in Howard's category using only these stats. Now, Howard is older than Prince, and is in his prime years putting up these numbers while Prince is doing it at a very young age, but I don't believe age is considered in arby. I've heard a number of players and GMs say that they hate going to arby, because basically the team has to rip into all of the bad things about the player. That's why most players come to a one-year deal before arby. As I said earlier, I think Prince is likely to go to arby, and I think it will be ugly. If he was upset about his contract last year, I think he's going to be furious after he has to sit in and listen to Melvin tell him he's getting too fat to play 1B and discuss his terrible defense and the dropoff in his numbers from 2007 to 2008. The best-case scenario is that they sign a deal before it comes to arby The probable (in my mind) scenario is they go to arby and Prince ends up somewhere around $7MM The worst case scenario is they go to arby and Prince comes out demanding a trade. With his personality I think this could happen.

Roderick, I think the Howard card will definitely be played, but Howard had won the Rookie of the Year award and was coming off a season in which he had just won the MVP. I believe that these awards (whether right or wrong) play a somewhat significant role in what the player is paid. I believe arbitrators look at two year averages and HR, RBI & batting average hold a lot of clout: Howard 2006/2007 averages (hit arby year one in 2008) HR 52.5, RBI 142.5, avg .292 Prince HR 42, RBI 110, avg. .282 Prince's numbers are very good, but he would probably have had to repeat his 2007 numbers to be considered in Howard's category using only these stats. Now, Howard is older than Prince, and is in his prime years putting up these numbers while Prince is doing it at a very young age, but I don't believe age is considered in arby. I've heard a number of players and GMs say that they hate going to arby, because basically the team has to rip into all of the bad things about the player. That's why most players come to a one-year deal before arby. As I said earlier, I think Prince is likely to go to arby, and I think it will be ugly. If he was upset about his contract last year, I think he's going to be furious after he has to sit in and listen to Melvin tell him he's getting too fat to play 1B and discuss his terrible defense and the dropoff in his numbers from 2007 to 2008. The best-case scenario is that they sign a deal before it comes to arby The probable (in my mind) scenario is they go to arby and Prince ends up somewhere around $7MM The worst case scenario is they go to arby and Prince comes out demanding a trade. With his personality I think this could happen.

Good post zzzman. I agree with you that people are overly negative on this year's team, which is basically the same team as last year. One small point however, is that the pre-season predictions would have included Gallardo for a full season last year with Villy in the pen, which would have made last year's starting rotation much better than this year's. I also agree with Patrick that our biggest weakness this year will be when one of our SP goes down and we have Narron / Corporan / Gulin start a significant number of games. The signing of Hoffman limited our resources for a SP, and the signing of Lowe for $15MM / year probably put Sheets out of our price range. We need to sign more SP, even if it's only decent AAA insurance, or this promising season could go up in flames in a hurry. The first thing of significance I heard Macha say was "our need for a closer is much greater than our need for a starting pitcher." In my book, that wasn't a good first statement for me to remember him by. He either overvalues a closer, undervalues starting pitching, hasn't looked at his minor league pitching "insurance," or was so spoiled by the fact that his SPs in Oakland never got injured that he thinks it doesn't happen.

In real life and in trade value, the All-Star game means nothing. In arby, I think they do take it into consideration. Kind of like winning an Oscar. It doesn't mean you're a better actor than someone else, but you'll probably get paid more for your next role.

In real life and in trade value, the All-Star game means nothing. In arby, I think they do take it into consideration. Kind of like winning an Oscar. It doesn't mean you're a better actor than someone else, but you'll probably get paid more for your next role.

In real life and in trade value, the All-Star game means nothing. In arby, I think they do take it into consideration. Kind of like winning an Oscar. It doesn't mean you're a better actor than someone else, but you'll probably get paid more for your next role.

In real life and in trade value, the All-Star game means nothing. In arby, I think they do take it into consideration. Kind of like winning an Oscar. It doesn't mean you're a better actor than someone else, but you'll probably get paid more for your next role.

In real life and in trade value, the All-Star game means nothing. In arby, I think they do take it into consideration. Kind of like winning an Oscar. It doesn't mean you're a better actor than someone else, but you'll probably get paid more for your next role.

I think people also have really bad memories of Braun playing third base and worry that Gamel will play equally bad defense. The Brewers seem to think that Gamel can play third, or I would guess that they would have moved him to a new position by now. Personally, I really hope he is going to be a major league 3B. However, if he isn't going to be able to cut it (and there should be people in the organization who would recognize this) I would rather he learn a new position at AAA this year rather than in the majors next year. I worry that the only reason they're not moving him is that they don't want to play their hand as to who they're planning on trading next year. If they move him to RF or 1B, how would that look for Hart or Prince?

In all of the threads where these trades have been discussed, the monetary saving has been hashed through in great detail. The only reason to do a Cabrera for Cameron deal was the cost savings. It looked like the deal was done until New York wanted the Brewers to pay some of Cameron's salary or take Igawa and his expensive contract on in return, not leaving nearly enough to sing Dunn, Abreau or Perez. The deal fell through when the cost savings for the Brewers wsan't enough to cover the substantial downgrade from Cameron to Cabrera. Remember, Igawa had another couple of expensive years on his contract, leaving the Brewers with less money in the future. I didn't follow the second example too closely, as it was pure fan speculation, and to the best of my knowledge was never anything that was considered by either the Red Sox or the Brewers. You always have to worry about what value you are receiving in any deal you do. The most important factors in any deal are price and value. Opportunity costs must of course be considered as part of the value involved. For example, let's say you have a new $1,000 flat-screen TV. Would you accept it if I said I'd give you $5 for your TV set? If I did this, you would no longer have to worry about paying for cable / dish and would save electricity, so now you'd have another $100/month or so to afford something else you'd like. In this case, the savings don't measure up to the fact that you'd be getting the raw end of the deal on me giving you $5 for a $1,000 TV. Now, if I were to give you $900 and you really had something else you wanted for that $100/mo, you may make the deal. You lose a little on the TV, but can now afford something you want more. I hate to re-hash the Cameron for Cabrera debate, as it had a long thread specifically for it, but Cameron is a valuable commodity. It can be argued whether he's worth $10MM, although it seems that he's at least worth something close to that. Cabrera seems to be little more than someone to fill the vacancy in CF, and Igawa would likely pitch in AAA, so the Brewers would take a significant step downward in order to save around $5MM this year and still owe Igawa (I believe) $8MM over the next two years. Cameron can help us win this year, and his entire $10MM will be off the books next year, allowing us to pay for a better FA next year instead of being stuck paying Igawa and Cabrera to be below average players. It just doesn't seem like the price equals the value in that deal. Now, if you're talking about Hall, he is not nearly worth the money he's being paid, so he is the type of player you give away for nothing simply to save salary. There are numerous contracts in MLB like this, including the aforementioned Igawa who had negative value for the Yankees in the trade. When someone is getting paid far more than they're worth, it's a good idea to try to dump him off on someone else. Cameron is not in this category.

I believe Hart and Fielder are both in their 1st year of arby. As others have stated, Fielder shouldn't get Ryan Howard money, and I expect $6-7MM for him. It will be interesting to see what he makes, as he isn't a ROY, MVP or perennial all-star. He did have a 50 HR season, but that was followed by 34 last year. His two year averages on the stats I believe are important in arby are 42 HR, 110 RBI, .282 avg. I don't know how much they take defense into consideration, but that would be a knock against him. I really think that Prince could be a case that goes to arby, as Prince / Boras will probably ask for the moon and not negotiate down. It could get kind of ugly. Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.

I believe Hart and Fielder are both in their 1st year of arby. As others have stated, Fielder shouldn't get Ryan Howard money, and I expect $6-7MM for him. It will be interesting to see what he makes, as he isn't a ROY, MVP or perennial all-star. He did have a 50 HR season, but that was followed by 34 last year. His two year averages on the stats I believe are important in arby are 42 HR, 110 RBI, .282 avg. I don't know how much they take defense into consideration, but that would be a knock against him. I really think that Prince could be a case that goes to arby, as Prince / Boras will probably ask for the moon and not negotiate down. It could get kind of ugly. Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.