Brew crew 92

This is a good point. The break-out guys are typically the ones who are traded at this time of year. Guys who are injured or are underperforming are sometimes added as PBNL types, but are rarely headliners. Of course the Top 100 lists are for the fans but they're not comprised based on opinions of whoever the writer is. It's based on market intel gathered from scouts/teams and what they're hearing out there. They're updated every 6 months I think so of course they're not fluid like internal rankings by each org. That doesn't negate the point that Ray being on it heading into the season means he actually is valued out there regardless of teams internal boards having him ranked 2nd or lower for our org. There's no way teams currently have Grisham ranked 30th for our system. Right, but because their not fluid, and lag way, way longer than they should imo, it makes them inaccurate for that reason alone.

Teams have their OWN lists, top 100 lists are for the fans to have a General idea who SOME of the better prospects are. Clubs prospect lists are done in real time, example would be, Grisham, who’s currently not highly rated on prospect lists, would be on teams lists, because they have scouts that have seen him play recently, teams know he’s broken out. Same with Rasmussen. We have far more quality prospects than public lists are showing,imo. Thor is the type of move Stearns will not make. Injury concerns and price will keep him away, imo.

Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating left foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers. Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

I’m starting this off by saying I’m probably more bullish on our minor league system than most, so with that said. A bat(castellanos) or two(Walker) a couple of pen arms(Smith)(Diekman) a call-up or two(Grisham?Freitas?Devin Williams?Perdomo) all mixed together should get us to the playoffs > cheaply enough. Not going to give up that much to acquire those players because of the rental effect. And I would argue, we’d possibly be the second or third best team behind the(possibly best team since the 98 Yankees and top 10 team of all time dodgers), and maybe the Braves, Cubbies, but right there nonetheless. If we’re not gonna give up a lot of prospect capital, why not sign some rentals? Are you buying or selling? In another thread you're talking about trading Hader. Why would you trade Hader, but buy a couple bats and relievers for a playoff run? Also, regarding Houser, you seem to really take the ceiling of a pitcher and believe that's absolutely, no doubt, what they're going to be. Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, Perdomo, Rasmussen, others I can't recall. Now Houser. There have been thousands of pitchers who had as good or better stuff than any of these guys who were never any good in MLB, or had a brief stint of success and vanished. Regarding Houser, I see the same thing the brewers do, a 4 pitch mix, with command of those 4 pitches > Starter. He dominated pitching out of the pen, but unlike Burnes in the pen, who condensed his arsenal to FB Slider, Houser continued throwing his complete mix with success, so he should have success moving forward as a starter. He’s not a robot, he needs to pitch to get stretched to where he has his stamina back, and that takes time. With patience, the payoff should be big. Regarding Hader and am I buying or selling? I’m doing both at the same time. I trade Hader this deadline because: 1.) This deadline is shaping up to be a huge sellers market. Teams that have great farm systems that need a pitcher like Hader to either get into the playoffs(Rays) win their division(Twins)(Braves) or Win the Series(Dodgers)(Astros). There’s not an abundance of great pitchers available so that makes Hader valuable, then add the 4 1/2 years of control and you get potentially the largest prospect haul ever. At some point in time a precedent needs set, it might as well be done by Stearns. 2.) protection from regression or injury. Either of which would be potentially devastating to the prospect haul received. The 5 top prospects received would be Franchise altering immediately, if ML ready plug in, if not, stash and develop, allowing for liberal use of our prospects currently in our system to be used to improve the team now, a starter(Stroman?Wheeler?Bauer) 2-3 pen arms(Smith?Colome? ???) Bat(Castellanos? ?) i would argue with said moves the team could still win this year, and be able to, with the stud prospects received, better themselves again this offseason, by trading said prospects for ML stars. I believe our best window to win a title in the near future is 19/20, because Yelich will need traded after next year. So I would spend my $ And prospect capitol this year and offseason and next deadline. Trading Hader this year helps me acquire more star players during said window.

You have to wonder why Supak is not being promoted more aggressively. He's made 34 AA starts. Is it his low K rate? Is he the guy they are using as bait to get an established arm? He's allowed a mere 10 HR in 196 AA innings. You'd think that's a huge plus and that he'd be able to be useful in the big leagues keeping the ball in the park. Just a random guess, but a scouting report from this past off-season indicated he had recently developed a new curveball. If that is indeed the case, it’s possible they want him to master that pitch over a full season before exposing him to the higher altitude environments in the PCL where the pitch won’t likely break the same. Again, that is merely a guess. Wow, have to give you credit for the truly massive amount of information you provide to this site, Sveum too. We’ll find out soon enough which it is, I’m hoping it’s the trade, because he’s not a middling prospect, and, that means Stearns might be going a little bigger than some of us think.

Good take. Overall, as you said, he’s produced, but inconsistently, as he is well past prime, so I believe should be expected. When he’s hot, he’s hot, when he’s not, he can be really bad, swinging at 3 breaking balls in the same at bat and missing the ball by 2-3 feet on every swing. But when he’s on, he’s still a lot of fun to watch hit.

Do you think we were the only bidder when we got Cain? Yelich? Wheeler is no Manny Machado, I doubt such a bidding war for Wheeler happens. With starters being the hottest commodity there is in baseball, and with so few available at this year’s deadline, and reading about the Yankees among many others going hard after Wheeler, just not all that confident we’re going to land him.

A team can be both mediocre and a playoff contender in the double-Wild Card era. The 2019 Brewers are both. One of the 5 teams in the NL Central is going to be a mediocre division champion. History suggests that mediocre team could easily go on to win the World Series. One way to look at the current situation is that the Brewers have a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs if the right moves present themselves at the deadline. Nobody will remember the 90-win Rays or the 89-win Mariners from 2018 but the 2019 Brewers are in a much different and more enticing situation. Even the single Wild Card era occasionally produced mediocre teams that had things break right for them. The two mediocre teams of that era that I remember best are the 2006 Cardinals and the 2007 Rockies. The 2006 Cardinals finished the regular season 83–78. It’s the second-worst record ever for a league champion and the worst record ever for a World Series champion. Of course it had to be the Cardinals who won a World Series with an 83 win team. The 2007 Rockies were 76-72 on September 16th and went on a crazy hot streak the last two weeks of the season and then won a one game playoff to get in as the Wild Card. They ultimately got swept in the World Series, but the fact they made it that far after producing pedestrian results for the majority of the season was an incredible story. Yes, talk about momentum, winning 13 of their last 14 games just to force a one game play-in game vs the Padres, Who the Brewers had beaten the previous day in a come from behind win, just to get the Rockies that game. The Rockies walked off the Padres 9-8 with Matt Holliday scoring the game-winning run. They then swept the Phillies in 3, the DBacks in 4, and when the dust had settled, 21 wins 1 loss. They were talent wise inferior to the teams they beat, but their manager, Clint Hurdle, imo, did one of, if not the best motivational, managing jobs of all time. But unfortunately had to wait a ridiculously long time, I think 7 or 8 days to play again, and with all their momentum gone got swept by the better team, the Red Sox. What’s the old baseball saying? Momentum is only as good as the next days starting pitcher? I believe the Rockies of 07 blew that out of the water.

This would be an incredibly harmful way to run a franchise like Milwaukee. Sometimes instant gratification isn't the answer. And what happens if you never have the window you do now in your lifetime?? There are no guarantees. Try to capitalize on the opportunities you have in front of you, because they may never present themselves again. Exactly. What about the older crowd, the retired, the longest tenured fans of the team. Do we do to them what the Cubbies did to their fans? For you youngins out there, if you have a father or grandfather or even great grandfather that’s been a brewer fan most of their lives, they can’t help but look at things differently than you do. The win now mentality has an obvious meaning to them that it doesn’t to most of you. That’s why Bud Selig should take precedence over any of us, being this team is his child. I want to win the WS, but more so for him and Uek, than for me. We can’t be the lovable losers 2.0. This message is meant more for the heart of Mark Attanasio than David Stearns.

Not sure Bud Selig & Bob Uecker would agree with your tear down idea.

Funny post. Never in a trillion lifetimes, should he or would he extend Hader, way too high an injury risk over the 6 years. He’s a pitcher that throws nothing but fastballs, and it’s been shown that fastballs are hardest on the elbow. I’ll stop there. How's that Fastball injury rate working for Aroldis Chapman? You do know Hader can throw more than just fbs right? He's 25. Not 31. Nobody you replace him with will be near ad good as him. Now you waste 7-14million a year paying for mediocre replacements. Makes sense with the amount of whining already on how record payroll is still being cheap. 127 is only a record payroll because of how low the payrolls have chronically been, imo. Fixed it.

Position players tear their achilles and ACLs. So prospects, you get 4 back. Chances are 1 ends up good, at best 2. And chances are even that good 1 is never as good as Hader currently is. But then what do you do when that person proves he's good? Trade him with 4.5 years of control left for to try and repeat the process again until you're left with nothing? Depends, if it’s the Twins I get 5 back, a couple I package for my biggest need. A couple more I package for another need.

Are you being serious with the < 1%? And not even worthy of discussion? I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher? I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what? There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak. Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters. Sorry, no way another team is going to give up that package with multiple all stars or an Ace pitcher. That's why it's less than 1%. I of course agree all star position players and a true ace are more valuable, but that's also why no one is going to give that to you. What happens if injured, yea same goes for every player on the team. Prospects. I trust Stearns to get enough prospect value to improve the team substantially or he won’t do it. Pitchers have TJ, position players not so much.

Just don’t see Stearns going after a name starter, too many buyers to bid vs. Giles I could see him try to land.

Funny post. Never in a trillion lifetimes, should he or would he extend Hader, way too high an injury risk over the 6 years. He’s a pitcher that throws nothing but fastballs, and it’s been shown that fastballs are hardest on the elbow. I’ll stop there.

Are you being serious with the < 1%? And not even worthy of discussion? I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher? I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what? There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak. Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters. When is the last time a unanimous top 5 reliever in baseball was traded with more than 3 years of team control left on their rookie deal? Hence where the <1% comes in... Well, some GM needs to create a new Precedent, i’m hoping against hope that it’s ours.

Are you being serious with the < 1%? And not even worthy of discussion? I Trust Stearns with his track record of trades to be able to acquire MULTIPLE starters on a championship type club, maybe a prospect that turns into an Ace? Maybe it’s a couple all-stars? Maybe he takes 2 or 3 of the 4 or 5 top prospects and acquire’s a stud pitcher? I haven’t heard much talk(outside of 1 poster) about what happens if Hader regresses or gets injured, then what? There’s been a lot of talk on this site over the years of having a GM able to have the courage to sell high on a popular player at his peak. Hader is the best pen arm in the world, but it’s still a PEN arm, I believe multiple all-star position players are more valuable and so are stud starters.

Why would you want Freitas over Pina. He would only play once a week since Thames and Aguilar are hitting well now and no need to play Grandal at 1B. Freitas MLB numbers: .214/.270 and Pina is the superior defensive catcher. Pina is doing a good job as the once-a-week-backup. Williams only has 48 IPs at AA. He hasn't seen AAA yet. Way too early to call him up and possibly screw with his confidence. At least see what he could do in San Antonio. Look at the Brewers' pitcher of the year last year Brown. Did great at AA and is getting killed at San Antonio. So you must like my first two moves, since you didn’t disagree with them in your post. Plenty of pitchers have gone from AA, to the big leagues, especially when they’ve dominated like he has, not worried about his psyche, he’s not young, and we’re gonna need to roster him this fall anyhow, and to top it off, we need dominant pen arms, so let’s see if he can help us BEFORE the deadline. Freitas is also a good defender, maybe not quite to Pina’s skill, but, to my eye, Pina is not quite the defender he’s been the last couple years, and, I’m pretty confident Freitas can hit better than .214 which would still be .50+ points higher than Pina. He’s also almost 3 yrs younger, and IF he hits anything even remotely close to .360+, he protects the brewers from another Aguilar or Thames slump.

I’d put the odds of a Hader Trade at 50% at either this deadline or next years. I’m hoping it’s this year for the reasons I’ve already given. But I’d be ok with next year too. I will say, I believe Stearns will show us what he’s really capable of as a GM, over this next 2 1/2 years more than the last 3 1/2. I’m hoping for a Hader Trade if for no other reason than most other GMs wouldn’t, And Stearns, imo, needs to do his design work differently than any other GM, because of our payroll being chronically lower than it should, based upon our unarguably best fans in baseball, and never having won a title in our 50 year existence.

What I said was: Rasmussen has the ARSENAL of a Tor, not that he would be an ace. Your right about the hyperbole, that’s my middle name. I can’t help myself. When people sandbag so much here on this site, I can’t help my non-tempered true thoughts from coming out, although I can say I’ve gotten better on that front lately, even if only slightly. Toby says it’s underrated, especially on the pitching side, then people should just know that it is, and not pay a whole lot of attention to publications ratings.

So essentially you want to walk 5 steps back and then trade the prospects to move forward 5 steps. Since our bullpen has arguably had quite the problems I don't see how rearranging deck chairs is going to help. Yeah, you could have some crazy theory on how we can be just as good and keep a few prospects to boot...but that is the kind of theory that isn't really reality. Might as well stick the prospects out there and hope we hit it big. Trade Hader = abundance of good to great prospects added Replace Hader with inferior but multiple quality pen arms giving us more depth in the pen, and a good closer in Smith, And or Colome or whoever. I would rather have multiple all star type players at positions other than fireman(admittedly the best there is). Trading hader strengthens the overall team. No worries of injuries or regression even if slight, from Hader a bonus.

If I’m Stearns here’s what I do at the break: 1.) Option Arcia, play Dubon 2.) IL Cain, Roster Grisham and play him in the outfield 3.) Call-up D Williams to add to the pen 4.) DFA Pina, play Freitas more than Pina, Grandal can play 1B a little more if Freitas hits like I hope he hits Not all these moves will work out but I expect more production offensively, and the only loss might be Pina, but I can replace depth in the C dept.

What makes us better this year by trading hader for prospects is: More willing to give up prospects to improve this year because we have the prospect haul coming back from Hader. And maybe a prospect we get back is ML ready. It wouldn’t in my trade proposal but, Stearns could get a ML ready prospect back. If this trade were made early enough, he might have time to trade a prospect or two received for Hader for immediate help too.

I have to ask, given you keep pounding on this, and I'm not speaking about the future because that's the point of the trade, to land multiple top tier prospects to help the team in the future. But if we're losing Hader in the pen "this year" then how do we upgrade that loss "this year" via the trade? Example: Acquire Will Smith from the Giants. Smith > Supek & Stokes & Griep Acquire Jake Diekman from KC. Diekman > Olzyck Claudio optioned for Diekman. I then also call up D Williams and IF he excels, I send Burnes down to start. We could win just as many games with this bullpen than if we had Hader, I believe. But if that’s not a good enough back end Trade for Colome, at least we’d have him next year too. The players given up in these trades are far inferior to the players acquired by selling Hader. Imo.

If I’m Stearns I option Arcia, and give Dubon a real trial, to see if we can add a better hitter than Arcia, to this lineup. I personally believe him to be a better hitter. The defense, at least according to CC could be closer than we think, but, nonetheless, I want the potential of the better bat, especially with this offense being proven incapable of consistent run scoring, without benefit of the big fly.