Simba2020

I'm not at all certain this is where the FA market is headed. Possible yes, but I almost think it was too coincidental with the expiration of the CBA that these contracts were bloated to make the owners look good. Owners sign these big contract players for their own teams sake only. I don’t think they care how it makes them look across the league with the PA when the lockout was imminent anyway. There is no leverage to be gained by signing FAs to big and bad contracts early. I wouldn't be so sure especially with Manfred citing a record free agency period with nearly $2 billion in contracts doled out as proof of the league's commitment to the players. It's a strong class but I'm not sure it justifies the big leap in the money spent if there wasn't some hidden agenda in there someplace. Per information I've compiled over the years, the amounts spent per WAR in recent seasons compared to this one (thus far). 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Hitters $4.37 $5.23 $3.93 $3.95 $4.08 $3.86 $5.52 SP $5.92 $5.63 $5.41 $5.11 $5.54 $5.77 $7.25 RP $7.79 $7.42 $7.68 $6.46 $7.26 $4.66 $8.27

I'm not at all certain this is where the FA market is headed. Possible yes, but I almost think it was too coincidental with the expiration of the CBA that these contracts were bloated to make the owners look good.

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him? Bradley badly underperformed in 2021 and overperformed in 2020. He was pretty consistent with the bat from 2017-2019, slashing .234/.318/.409/.727 over those three years. His average bWAR/fWAR over those three years was 2.4 WAR. Renfroe just came off a season where his OBP was nearly 20 points higher than his career average (2021 = .315, career = .297) and nearly 35 points higher than it was in the previous 2 seasons (in 2019 and 2020 he posted a .281 OBP). Despite the .315 OBP and 31 home runs, his bWAR/fWAR for the season was 2.1. So if Bradley returns to be the player he was from 2017-2019, throwing out the plus and negative performances of the last two years, chances are pretty good that he will be a better player than Renfroe in terms of WAR. The more and more I looked at this deal and the historical numbers between Bradley and Renfroe, I'd be pretty surprised if Stearns sees Renfroe as a better player than Bradley. Now if Bradley went to Stearns and said he hated Milwaukee and asked him to do anything he could do to get him out of Milwaukee, that would change things. But it looks like Stearns wanted nothing more than to dump this contract, and the best deal he could find was swapping a player with a comparable WAR and then giving up two prospects to make for the fact that Bradley will have guaranteed money coming in 2023 while Renfroe does not. Personally, I largely agree with you. To me it was MOSTLY a salary dump. For me, I'd value Bradley as having roughly -10 million in surplus value, Hamilton at maybe $3 to $4 million and Binelas at about $5 million. I would view Renfroe as having very little surplus value especially if he gets the $7.6 million in arbitration that's projected. It wouldn't be shocking to me if Bradley did put up higher fWAR this year than Renfroe. A return to Boston could help him big time in bouncing back. Now most of that value would still be derived from his defense as I'd certainly expect Renfroe to have a much more impactful offensive season than Bradley and probably better overall in terms of WAR. It just wouldn't shock me if it went the other way. I also put the odds of Renfroe being non-tendered after 2022 at greater than 50%. I'm still happy with the trade as I couldn't stomach seeing Bradley in a Brewers uniform any longer.

I was totally against signing Dahl last offseason while several wished he was added at that time. This time around on a minor league deal, I'm all for it.

Which is before he ever has an AB in a Brewers uniform, so yes, he is 30 as far as we are concerned. It's about optics. 29 going on 30 sounds better than 30 going on 31, which is what Simba's post would lead most to believe. But yes, Renfroe will be playing in his age 30 season in 2022. While determining what a player's "prime" years are is FAR from an exact science, this article from the Boston Globe (https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/02/what-baseball-player-prime-age/mS39neFWm4hrVukT6lSYuK/story.html) indicates a player's "prime" lasts until they are approximately through their age 30 season. So, by that definition, Renfroe is still in his prime, but on the tail end of it. But, he was obviously a late bloomer (which explains why he is still arby eligible through 2023 at his age), so who knows? Wow, this offseason is going to really suck for awhile, isn't it? I haven't updated this in a couple of years. But average WAR by age, and that would be determined by how it's listed on BR, is shown below. This is since 1970 for players that had 10 year careers to better capture the trends. Age Avg Total 20 0.58 78 21 0.78 159 22 0.94 437 23 1.13 826 24 1.45 1284 25 1.74 1688 26 2.01 2042 27 2.08 2140 28 2.01 2014 29 2.04 1954 30 1.83 1729 31 1.68 1480 32 1.34 1115 33 1.16 917 34 1.03 688 35 0.98 533

He is literally in his prime. Renfroe is 30 years old which is exactly the age players, on average, begin their decline so I would agree that he's past his prime.

I still think I'd be opposed to scrapping #2 but I do like MLBs proposal to have a draft lottery. I just would probably expand it to more than 3 slots. Totally agree on #3. I wish they would use some type of NFL formula. Lost X players to free agency, signed X players in free agency and based on the net loss of talent you get some supplemental pick compensation.

The MLBPA also seem completely fine with letting massive competitive balance exist between big market and small markets. Like if they had their way, the Yankees could run half a billion dollar payroll and just destroy the Brewers and their $100 million payroll consistently. Players like the idea of super teams, which from a fans perspective is bad for so many reasons. It's frankly bad enough the way it is currently. If this is balance, I'd hate to see imbalance. Right now, the system works for the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, and Giants, with the Astros, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, White Sox, Braves, Guardians (Indians), Cardinals, Padres, and Mariners in a second tier. The rest of MLB? Not so much. Definitely does not work for the Guardians but I'd say it also works for the Blue Jays, Phillies and maybe the Tigers. I think it would also work fine for the Orioles and the Rockies if those organizations weren't so incompetent.

You sure he is still in our system? I thought his minor deal was just for rest of 2021 season. I would think Dahl is a free agent as well. Not sure if he'd be able to get a major league contract at this point of his career so I could see him signing with somebody soon (assuming he is an FA).

My personal take on the trade is that it was largely a salary dump. Getting out of paying Bradley the $17.5 million (I believe) he was owed was the key driver. Renfroe is an upgrade over Bradley for sure but I'm not sure by how much since I have no clue how Taylor would have performed as the regular RF. Renfroe has never exceeded 2.0 in fWAR and I wouldn't expect more than fWAR of 1.5 this year. You could make the argument he had a career year in 2021 and still put up only fWAR of 1.8. I know he is projected to earn $7.5 million in arbitration. That seems high to me. Although the arbitration process loves homers more than any other metric so it's possible. Still something closer to $6 million wouldn't seem like a stretch to me. However, if he does make $7.5 this year, he'd be a good bet to be over $10 million in 2023. Personally, I think he would be a strong non-tender candidate if that were to be the case. Overall I think it was a fair trade because we got a major liability in Bradley off the books but I don't think we won the trade by any stretch.

Should have taken PeaveyFury up on that bet. I said Curtiss would certainly be DFAd before his second year of arbitration and he laughed at that. Even before his injury I thought all discussion of the years of control we had with him were so overblown.

Seager has basically played the equivalent of two full seasons over the past four seasons. During that time, he's put up fWAR of 9.2. The two years when he was able to play a full slate of games, his yearly fWAR was 6 or better. Offensively he hasn't lost anything but has on the defensive side. If one assumes he will be able to play a full season, than I think the contract can be justified given his age and in light of the contracts being passed out this offseason. Not sure that's a good assumption however.

Not sure why the trade market would be heating up towards the end of the year as trades aren't allowed to be made after the lockout either. At least among players on the 40 man roster.

So, basically, "take my word for it." If you've got some kind of data that supports your position please share it with the group so we can draw our own conclusions. I'm always open to having my mind changed if the objective information is persuasive enough. I can't really share my data even if I knew how to do so. However, all you have to do is look at what players sign for and their historical WAR and it's pretty easy to tell the $9 million figure doesn't come close to a historical number, which I think you have admitted. However, let's look at the last 11 "major" free agent signings made by the Brewers. By my count, those are Cain, Morrison, Grandal, Moustakas, Garcia, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko, Holt, Wong and Bradley Jr. Collectively, those 11 players signed for an AAV of $96.5 million. When looking at WAR, I prefer to use Fangraphs as there is a higher correlation of WAR to AAV than Baseball Reference. I doubt the numbers would be much different in this case but I haven't verified that. I also like to use a 3-year weighted average of WAR in my calculations. For the 11 players identified above, their weighted average fWAR was 21.9 in the 3 years preceding the signing of their contracts. Looking at just the year prior, the collective fWAR of the players was 19.5. So taking the AAV by the weighted average WAR you get $4.4 million/WAR. Based on the 1 year fWAR, you get $4.95 million/WAR. Again admittedly there are a number of other factors involved that can drive the value up or down but the above is a good rule of thumb. And this is only appropriate for hitters. Starting pitchers definitely get more than that and relievers even more than starters.

Not sure if anyone hates the $9M/1 WAR more than me. I just think it's flat out dumb. Hitters typically sign for $4 to $5 million/historical WAR. For older players, that number falls well below $4 million. I'd say something like $3 to $3.5/WAR for Pina would have been the expectation and is basically what he signed for. Teams aren't paying for historical performance though, that already happened, they are paying for future performance... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ Of course 9 million = 1 WAR is overly simplistic, it is intended as a starting point, not an ending point. For instance, the cost of a win in free agency seems to maybe be trending towards non-linearity recently... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-still-linear/ This article is a few years old now, but historically $/WAR values have also varied pretty significantly from position to position, which is another factor to consider... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-evolution-of-positional-differences-in-free-agent-costs/ I can't recall seeing anything recently that had $/WAR in the 4-5 million range, but I'd be interested in the methodology for sure if you have a link. I've read all I need to about $9 million/WAR. It's not going to change my mind that it's a dumb way to look at things. I have my own database of free agent signings for nearly 15 years, and there has been very little change the last several years. I obviously know what a guy is going to get is based on position, age, type of player (premium, solid, mediocre) etc. But on a very simplified look at things, most guys sign for $4 to $5 million per historical WAR. If you are trying to figure out what a guy is going to sign for, that's the number to use not $8 to $10 million. I've also made this point previously. A player puts up WAR of 2, 2, 2 and 2. No ceiling, high floor. What's he going to get in free agency? Something right around $10 million AAV. The next season, he's on pace to put up another 2 WAR. Suddenly people want to say he's an $18 million player with $8 million in surplus value. To me he's the $10 million player he always was with little surplus value. Another reason I don't like it is this. Say you have a guy who was basically a 5 WAR player. He ends up signing for 5 years and $135 million ($27 million AAV). He then puts up a couple of roughly 3 WAR years. So to some, they'll still justify his contract using a $9 million figure. I would say since you could go out and get a likely replacement at his new level of production for much less, he's not worth it. Further, let's say after year 2, the team wants to trade him. Do we really think they could trade his 3 years and $81 million left on his deal without kicking in cash or prospects to move him? I don't think he could be moved without one or the other (or both). So if I'm right, why does it make sense to use the $9 million WAR figure to justify a player's contract?

Not sure if anyone hates the $9M/1 WAR more than me. I just think it's flat out dumb. Hitters typically sign for $4 to $5 million/historical WAR. For older players, that number falls well below $4 million. I'd say something like $3 to $3.5/WAR for Pina would have been the expectation and is basically what he signed for.

Have there been that many big bats from Japan? Seems like most have been pitchers. The big whiff was Fukudome and he was already 31 when he signed. Matsui was pretty good when healthy. I think we know a lot more about how that league translates to MLB and what their potential comps would be. There have been 17 hitters to make their way from Japan to MLB. Of those, three (Matsui, Johjima and Fukodome) had posted an OPS over 1.000 in the three years preceding their MLB debuts. Nine of the 17 were already in their 30s when they made their debut. If history means anything, it can be expected that batting averages and OBPs will be roughly 15% lower in MLB with slugging down over 25%. A .800 OPS would be a reasonable expectation for Suzuki. Perhaps somewhat higher due to his age.

If he was a free agent, I'd agree. Perfect fit. But it will come down to who offers the best package in return so I don't see how anybody can be called a favorite at this point.

You can refuse to accept it, but all the players that signed huge free agent contracts & subsequently bombed absolutely contribute to the dollar per WAR calculations because they represent the inherent risks of the whole process. No doubt there are limitations in saying 1 WAR equals X dollars & the reality of how front offices actually operate is much more complicated, but picking out a handful of free agents that are retroactively similar in production & saying that should be the baseline doesn't get us any closer to the truth. However one wants to slice it, Yelich/Cain both provided some degree of production & didn't prevent the team from easily winning their division, so in my opinion anyway, while they may not have completely "earned" their salary, it also wasn't "wasted". You provided plenty of examples of what wasted salary actually looks like. I will refuse to accept it. Let's look at it from another point of view. Let's say for four straight years, Yelich produced exactly 1.5 of WAR and then became a free agent. What kind of AAV would he be looking at in free agency? Something along the lines of $7 million. So if he would get something like $7 million in free agency and produced another 1.5 WAR season, why would I suddenly say he was a $14 million player?

So you think our outfield was effective offensively? I think the outfield was about 11% below average at the plate last year, because they had an 89 wRC+. I think their overall performance was still above average (6.6 WAR, 11th) on account of plus base running (+8.3, 8th) and fielding (+31.5 UZR, 1st | +36 DRS, 2nd). I think Garcia (2.9 WAR | 10.75 million), Cain (1.8 WAR | 17 million) & Yelich (1.5 WAR | 14 million) all put up production in line with or exceeding their salary. That leaves JBJ as the only OF who money was wasted on in 2021 & I don't consider 3 million in actual salary a ton relative to MLB finances. I refuse to accept that Cain and Yelich sniffed their salary production. I understand well where the concept comes from but I will continue to wholeheartedly disagree that WAR is worth $9 million or whatever. I get how the number gets calculated. How much money did Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury, Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, etc, etc, etc. earn and how much WAR did they produce? All that does is completely bloat the value of WAR. None of those players are worth what they are/were paid, can't be traded without copious amounts of money being included if at all, yet somehow those types of players/contracts are used to justify the value of WAR. I looked at what I would consider the 7 most comparable players signed in free agency in the offseason to the production we got out of Cain and Yelich this year. Those would be Eddie Rosario, Brett Gardner, Kevin Pillar, Robbie Grossman, Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez. Not one of those players got more than $10 million AAV and averaged a bit over $6.1 million AAV. Collectively, those 7 players produced fWAR of 13.4. That results in an unrealistic $3.2 million/fWAR but more in line with what players get in free agency than trying to justify somebody's worth by using a $9/WAR metric.

Personally I don't see the Brewers extending the offer. I would not do so. Not sure if he'd accept it but in my opinion he should. I don't see him getting more than 2/$25 or 3/$39 kind of deal.

Brown was. And I couldn't stand him. Maybe he wasn't that bad, although I still thought he was, but I missed Merle and probably never would have warmed to Brown because of it.

I too am a bit annoyed by BAs regular absences and almost wish they would just hire a new tandem. How different things are when Merle Harmon asked for two weeks off to cover the Olympics and they wouldn't let him do it so they let him go. Olympics never even happened due to the boycott. I really liked Harmon and Uecker together back in the day.

He had an OPS of .800 as a Brewer. That sounds pretty good to me. Better than his career and better than he was doing at the time of the trade. Plus he was asked to play a position he had never played before. I think he did everything that should have been expected of him and perhaps more. I would definitely be interested in bringing him back.

I absolutely believe he'll make it although not a first ballot guy. However, how would Molina not make it in? I believe he will be an easy first ballot guy. Yeah, Yadier is pretty much a lock, but he doesn't really stack up to Buster from a statistical standpoint. Threw Mauer's numbers in there too since I think he is the other post-Piazza/Ivan catcher that should be an HOF lock... Posey | 5,607 PAs | 129 OPS+ | 44.9 career WAR | 36.6 peak WAR | 5.3 WAR/162 Mauer | 7,960 PAs | 124 OPS+ | 55.2 career WAR | 39.0 peak WAR | 4.8 WAR/162 Molina | 8,284 PAs | 97 OPS+ | 42.1 career WAR | 28.7 peak WAR | 3.2 WAR/162 Molina has durability, defense and solid enough numbers that there is no debate for me. Posey was awesome but the length of his career is working against him. Again I think he's in but not first time around. Mauer is a little more of a question mark to me as his last 5 years were spent as a highly mediocre 1B. That leaves basically a 9 year career as an elite catcher. I guess that's not much different than Posey's career.