They don't by committing to a bunch of rookies and jettison their best hitter.
They do by their SP pitching like they did in 2021; if they don't do that, it's irrelevant, they aren't going anywhere. I suggested signing Abreu as you did (though I predicted $2M more per year); seems like a good idea, but there is a ton of risk on counting on that, as he will have several suitors (including, apparently, the Cubs). And if you don't sign Abreu, the options for improving upon Renfroe are even smaller.
They SHOULD have been a 91-win team, and would have done that if their pitching didn't take a nose dive. It's reasonable to think that they could reach that level again. The Cardinals should have been a 86-win team, but they had a bunch of older players have one of their best seasons ever; It's reasonable to think they will be worse next year.