Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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I never anointed him as a savior. That's just putting words in my mouth. I don't know how you can say fandom is tainting my views either when I'm literally just regurgitating widely available stats. All of which, aside from 2022 (where Hiura had almost 300 less plate appearances), say that Winker is a superior hitter. And the two season previous to that, Winker was a top 15 hitter in the entire game. Nor was he even "horrendous" last season. Statistically, he was an above average hitter (109 wRC+). We do have to wait and see how he responds to surgery, but I see no reason not to be optimistic given that he's only 29...God knows we can use his high OBP/low K profile in this lineup at the bare minimum.
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Steamer Projections for 2023: Winker: .249/.355/.424 (122 wRC+) Hiura: .215/.298/.408 (99 wRC+) Renfroe: .240/.304/.468 (116 wRC+) Wong: .251/.323/.387 (109 wRC+) Probably a conservative estimate for Winker, too, given his career line....
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Better than McCutchen. Hiura also got like 300 less at-bats...Given his K rate and other metrics, he likely would've fallen below Winker, too.
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Plus it's not like any of our current aces were ace starting pitchers from the get-go (see Woodruff 2017/18, Burnes/Peralta 2019). I remain quite optimistic about Ashby due to his SO stuff and extreme ground-ball profile. Hopefully he takes last year's lessons to heart starting this spring.
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Yeah, we'll see. I wouldn't be absolutely opposed to Hiura being on the opening day roster. Just not as someone who we'd be relying on to play a major role in this offense.
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Or they haven't found a taker or a trade that's to their liking...Still a ways to go.
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Yeah, I'm not saying it's a guarantee or anything. That would not square with reality. But the chances are relatively low imo that Winker has suddenly fallen off a cliff at the age of 28 after 5 straight seasons of high-level to elite hitting. Even in 2022, he was still an above average hitter. Throw in the fact that he's going from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to a place where he absolutely rakes and a division that he absolutely rakes in, and I'm feeling quite optimistic about him as our primary DH in 2023.
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Guy has as good of stuff as anyone on this pitching staff, including Corbin Burnes. Looking forward to him hopefully taking that next step in 2023. I'm a believer.
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"Likely get younger magically"??? He's 29, not 35. Countless players throughout the history of the game have bounced back after an injury-plagued season. Winker career OPS against RHP: .885; 2020-2021: .932 and 1.070. That's not just better than Hiura. That's Soto, Harper, etc./top 10 level stuff. Even in 2022, which you keep referring to like nothing else matters, Hiura barely outproduced Winker (115 vs. 109 wRC+), and in SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER at-bats to boot. Why? Because even when Winker wasn't hitting, he walked and got on base at an elite level. Besides making contact, Hiura has been averse to walking throughout his career. Borderline comedy for you to continue to try to make us believe that Hiura is a better hitter than Winker despite what the career stats so plainly say.
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Gotcha. I, too, would like another lefty masher. Too bad we didn't want to go with Wil Myers. Though, Longoria is still out there. And adding Contreras definitely helps.
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Do you not think Jesse Winker is a better option at DH? Without him DHing against RHP, I just don't see a place for him on this team.
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This! Thank you for digging all of this info up.
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Hiura is a much bigger question mark than Winker...One injury plagued season in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks doesn't wipe out an entire career of high-level hitting. Even then, Hiura barely outperformed Winker by wRC+ (in significantly fewer at-bats) because Winker walks and gets on base at an elite level even when he isn't hitting. Neither Hiura nor McCutchen could do that.
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Hiura's job is to hit the ball when in the lineup. He failed in September/October by OPSing below .500. He hurts himself by being a trash defender and striking out more than once in every 3 at-bats.
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I agree that the team mismanaged the whole Andrew McCutchen situation. First, by the mere act of signing him, and then, second, by subbornly batting him cleanup against RHP when it was clear at this point in his career that he was a below average player against them. But I disagree that Hiura was mismanaged. You can't rely on hitters who strikeout as often as Hiura does to be a consistent cog in your lineup.
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They traded him because he wasn't a fit in their clubhouse and they needed a second baseman. Winker isn't a sure thing, but considering he's still 29 and was a well above average to borderline elite hitter every season before then, I like the chances of success. Certainly a better option than Hiura.
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Surgery in the offseason. Mariners say those injuries were a reason for his struggles Then, right from the horse's mouth: https://www.mlb.com/video/jesse-winker-s-current-mindset. Says he's healthy and in a much better spot health-wise after his surgeries.
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Pure fiction. Look at this game log from Aug 17 to Sept 9.
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Yes, because one injury plagued season in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball tells the whole story. Here are the missing chapters of your story (which is like the whole book in this case): .885 career OPS against RHP in 1388 at-bats...Top 10 OPS in baseball against RHP from 2020-2021 (with guys like Soto, Harper, etc.). Good grief.
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42% K rate (almost 50% in September/October), team-high BABIP (.366 as of Aug 28), HR-FB of 40%, and a sub .500 OPS from September on (once he started receiving regular at-bats) all seem like non-blind reasons to me...
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Keston was never going to maintain that production with the 42% K-rate and a HR-FB ratio of over 40%. Brewers eventually gave in and started him regularly in late-August, and Keston proceeded to OPS below .500... Now we have a much better option in Jesse Winker, so this discussion is kind of pointless.
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Article: Steamer's Projections of the Brewers Bullpen
Brewcrew82 replied to DuWayne Steurer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yeah, the projection on Devin Williams is way too conservative. It’s been three straight seasons of top 5/3 relief work from him. I’m actually really glad that he’s pitching in the WBC this spring as he’s started slow the last two years before going on to dominate the rest of the season. Hopefully, that experience will enable him to start faster from the closer role. I still think we’re a set-up man short of having a great bullpen. I like Bush/Strzlecki a lot better in the seventh inning then in the eighth. Unfortunately, no one left on the FA market who could fit in that role, with the possible exception of Chafin. Look out for Abner Uribe. I could see him having a 2020 Devin Williams-style breakout if the control gains he showed in the AFL are for real. -
The reason Hiura is jerked around at positions is because he's a terrible fielder....I disagree with how stubborn the team was in batting Cutch cleanup against RHP, but I don't think it was the difference in us missing the postseason. We missed the playoffs because of injuries and underperformance in our pitching, as well as a downturn in our fielding.
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Just above Brett Phillips and just below Joey Gallo. Not good company to keep. Especially if you walk as infrequently as Keston does.
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I would definitely take him. And I think a reunion is quite possible. The cost (in terms of prospects) would be virtually nothing.