Brewcrew82

My bad. I had forgotten about Burnes' oblique injury. Although, a shoulder injury is definitely more worrisome and that occurred just this year. Bottom line, Burnes is just plain better than Castillo and has two full years of control versus Castillo's then-1.5 years.

Luis Castillo was on the IL to start the season with a shoulder injury. Burnes has ZERO injury history.

And Burnes is much better than Castillo and, unlike Castillo, has zero injury history. Just look at the BTV sample I provided. It's fair value and what the Brewers should expect if they're going to trade Burnes.

Doesn't mean they're likely to land him. For a pitcher of DeGrom's quality, there's bound to be at least 10 teams that are "in on him". In the end, I'd be shocked if he didn't either end up back in New York or in LA or Atlanta. The most likely scenario remains that, even if they seriously pursue DeGrom, Verlander, and/or Rodon, they strike out on all three of them.

FWIW, Orioles are actually the team that walks away with excess value here.

Yeah, I'm not dealing with the Orioles if they don't give us Rodriguez, as I have no interest in DL Hall. Corbin Burnes is a top 3 pitcher in the game with no injury history to speak of and has two full years of control. This deal should be the Castillo trade on steroids. In that light, it's only fair that they give up a premium prospect such as Grayson Rodriguez. As for whether the Orioles would actually pull the trigger, I think they'd be quite tempted, especially if they think they can extend Burnes. Burnes would jumpstart their competitive drive, much like Castillo did this past year for the Mariners, and would provide a top of the rotation stud that they need to compete in a tough AL East. Rodriguez is a heck of a prospect, but Burnes is already what they hope Rodriguez ultimately becomes. And, again, I just don't see them as real players for the DeGrom, Verlander, Rodon triumvirate, which means that if they want a guaranteed front of the rotation stud starting Opening Day, Burnes is their best bet.

Not sure if I’d say 2019 was a pennant-caliber team. They were scorching hot for sure, but I think the lack of starting pitching and MVP Yelich would have caught up to them eventually had they made it past WSH. Certainly wouldn’t put them above the 2011 team. That team might’ve won the World Series had Greinke and Marcum not crapped the bed.

Not sure if I’d say 2019 was a pennant-caliber team. They were scorching hot for sure, but I think the lack of starting pitching and MVP Yelich would have caught up to them eventually had they made it past WSH. Certainly wouldn’t put them above the 2011 team. That team might’ve won the World Series had Greinke and Marcum not crapped the bed.

DeGrom is going to either New York, Atlanta, or LA. Verlander likely returns to Houston or goes out West. Rodon will also probably go to a large market such as the Cubs or Yankees. I just don't see them as a likely landing spot for any of those pitchers. But they have been rumored as a landing spot for Burnes. By trading for Burnes, they get a for-sure top 3 starter in the game to compete in a tough AL East. It's just one hypothetical scenario that works out trade value wise.

If they want Burnes, a top 3 pitcher in the game, that's who they're going to have to give up as I want nothing to do with DL Hall. They're not going after DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon. They may or may not do it in the end, but it's an even deal value-wise.

And Castillo signed a team-friendly deal. It isn't unreasonable to expect that Woodruff may want something a little closer to market rate.

I'm assuming an in-season agreement, as with Castillo. Woodruff is also better than Castillo.

The "trade Corbin Burnes and still be competitive" edition: Kolten Wong, option declined Brent Suter, non-tendered Trevor Gott, non-tendered Victor Caratini, non-tendered Robert Suarez, signed for 2 years at 9M AAV, 3rd year team option Jose Abreu, signed for 3 years at 18.5M AAV Corbin Burnes, traded to BAL for Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westberg, and Seth Johnson Tyrone Taylor, traded to OAK for A.J. Puk Danny Jansen, acquired from TOR for Garrett Mitchell and Carlos Rodriguez (P) Brandon Woodruff, extended for 5 years at $118M, 6th year vesting option Vs. RHP Vs. LHP Frelick Frelick Jansen Jansen Yelich Abreu Abreu Renfroe Tellez Adames Adames Yelich Renfroe Urias Westburg Westburg Turang Brosseau C: Danny Jansen ($3.70M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($18.50M) 2B: Luis Urias ($4.30M) 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.70M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Sal Frelick ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M) DH: Rowdy Tellez ($5.30M) Bench OF: Esteury Ruiz ($0.70M) Utility: Brice Turang ($0.70M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.00M) Backup C: Mario Feliciano ($0.70M) SP1: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP2: Freddy Peralta ($3.50M) SP3: Eric Lauer ($5.20M) SP4: Grayson Rodriguez ($0.70M) SP5: Adrian Houser ($3.50M) CL: Devin Williams ($3.20M) RP: Robert Suarez ($9.00M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M) RP: Jake Cousins ($0.70M) RP: Peter Strzlecki ($0.70M) RP: Holby Milner ($1.10M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) Payroll is 3.69% under budget

Best GM in our history to this point. That's how he'll be remembered. Hopefully, Arnold can finish his work and take us to the promised land.

Best GM in our history to this point. That's how he'll be remembered. Hopefully, Arnold can finish his work and take us to the promised land.

Somewhat surprised Yelich wasn't nominated lol

Somewhat surprised Yelich wasn't nominated lol

In September, Adames slashed: .274/.339/.496. That's in line with his 2021 season, as opposed to the rest of this past season where he mostly hit in the low 200s with a sub .300 OBP. That's what I'm talking about when I question which player we're going to get moving forward. It would be to our detriment as a franchise if it's the low 200 BA/sub .300 OBP player whose defense will eventually decline as he ages throughout an extension. But if it's the 2021/September 2022 player, then you're looking at a 5-7 WAR guy in the first few years who will still hit enough to offset the inevitable defensive decline in the later years. That's definitely someone worth extending. Now, you may be right in that his lower batting line this year was the result of an abnormally low BABIP. But I would rather wait into next season to find out for sure, as opposed to rushing into an extension this offseason only to learn that 2021 was the high point as far as his bat is concerned. And if during this offseason, a team like the Dodgers were to inquire as to his availability, I would seriously consider it depending on the package. As for Chourio, you're right in that any extension would come very early in his big league career a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, etc. But you do realize that such an extension would also cover his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, which will definitely coincide with Yelich and Woodruff/Burnes? We'd actually be paying more (relatively) on the front end, while hopefully getting a bargain on the back-end. Why it's wise for a cash-strapped team like the Brewers to be cautious in doling out extensions, as it can seriously limit your financial flexibility down the road.

In September, Adames slashed: .274/.339/.496. That's in line with his 2021 season, as opposed to the rest of this past season where he mostly hit in the low 200s with a sub .300 OBP. That's what I'm talking about when I question which player we're going to get moving forward. It would be to our detriment as a franchise if it's the low 200 BA/sub .300 OBP player whose defense will eventually decline as he ages throughout an extension. But if it's the 2021/September 2022 player, then you're looking at a 5-7 WAR guy in the first few years who will still hit enough to offset the inevitable defensive decline in the later years. That's definitely someone worth extending. Now, you may be right in that his lower batting line this year was the result of an abnormally low BABIP. But I would rather wait into next season to find out for sure, as opposed to rushing into an extension this offseason only to learn that 2021 was the high point as far as his bat is concerned. And if during this offseason, a team like the Dodgers were to inquire as to his availability, I would seriously consider it depending on the package. As for Chourio, you're right in that any extension would come very early in his big league career a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, etc. But you do realize that such an extension would also cover his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, which will definitely coincide with Yelich and Woodruff/Burnes? We'd actually be paying more (relatively) on the front end, while hopefully getting a bargain on the back-end. Why it's wise for a cash-strapped team like the Brewers to be cautious in doling out extensions, as it can seriously limit your financial flexibility down the road.

Yeah. Obviously, Burnes is a tough sign, with Woodruff being far more realistic. You have no argument from me there. I just think we should be cautious about extending Adames in light of the Yelich deal. Like, is he more the player that we saw in 2021 and September of this year, or the player that we saw for most of 2022? If the former, then yes, sign him to an extension. If the latter, though, an extension is probably not in our best interest. I know that if the Dodgers called us up this offseason and offered Vargas and one of their pitching prospects for him (e.g., Pepiot), I would seriously consider the deal with a viable replacement ready in Turang. I want the flexibility to lock up an ace starter (probably Woodruff) and, eventually, Chourio. Those are the types of talents are the essential ingredients to building a World Series-contending club. God knows Yelich already significantly hampers us.

Yeah. Obviously, Burnes is a tough sign, with Woodruff being far more realistic. You have no argument from me there. I just think we should be cautious about extending Adames in light of the Yelich deal. Like, is he more the player that we saw in 2021 and September of this year, or the player that we saw for most of 2022? If the former, then yes, sign him to an extension. If the latter, though, an extension is probably not in our best interest. I know that if the Dodgers called us up this offseason and offered Vargas and one of their pitching prospects for him (e.g., Pepiot), I would seriously consider the deal with a viable replacement ready in Turang. I want the flexibility to lock up an ace starter (probably Woodruff) and, eventually, Chourio. Those are the types of talents are the essential ingredients to building a World Series-contending club. God knows Yelich already significantly hampers us.

Yeah, these are much more realistic figures imo. Though, I'm not sure if I would give that extension to Adames, considering 1) we have Turang (and Brown) 2) we'll be paying Yelich throughout most such a deal, and 3) Adames doesn't quite fit the profile of a player who is likely to age gracefully. Top tier starting pitchers have a much longer shelf-life these days (e.g., Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc.), which is why I think we need to focus our extension efforts on Burnes and Woodruff, specifically. Adames might prove most useful to the organization as a trade asset to replenish the team with younger talent. Also, it's important to note that, if Chourio continues on his superstar prospect trajectory, we'll want to retain the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, Harris, etc.

Yeah, these are much more realistic figures imo. Though, I'm not sure if I would give that extension to Adames, considering 1) we have Turang (and Brown) 2) we'll be paying Yelich throughout most such a deal, and 3) Adames doesn't quite fit the profile of a player who is likely to age gracefully. Top tier starting pitchers have a much longer shelf-life these days (e.g., Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc.), which is why I think we need to focus our extension efforts on Burnes and Woodruff, specifically. Adames might prove most useful to the organization as a trade asset to replenish the team with younger talent. Also, it's important to note that, if Chourio continues on his superstar prospect trajectory, we'll want to retain the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, Harris, etc.

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff).

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff).