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Brewcrew82

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Everything posted by Brewcrew82

  1. Brewcrew82
    Now you’re a wRC+ truther (aka pretty much the best available stat to evaluate offense)??? Lol. Did you know the earth is round, too?
  2. Brewcrew82
    “Garbage”. Yeah, that’s why it’s been accurate on 95% of trades since its creation. It’s not perfect nor is it the Bible, but it’s a very useful public resource…Keep it going man, you never cease to amaze me. Lol
  3. Brewcrew82
    Lol “logic”. Says the guy who wants to non-tender Renfroe, yet is fine tendering Suter and Houser while potentially signing Benintendi. Listen, you can ultimately choose to believe whatever you want but the anecdotal evidence is out there that MLB front offices do refer to it from time to time. And it doesn’t fly in the face of logic when independent verification is a key part of the analytical process. Otherwise your results may suffer from bias.
  4. Brewcrew82
    A HUGE "no" on Aroldis Chapman for me. He hasn't been dominant since 2019, and this year he's looked like he's just plain done. Not to mention the havoc he could wreak on clubhouse chemistry, which already experienced a dip this past year. At $10M, could end up alongside Gagne in Brewers' FA infamy.
  5. Brewcrew82
    You say Renfroe has "no upside", but where he is right now at his position relative to the rest of the league is better than every one of our position players except for Adames. But I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and see which one of us is proven right in a little over a month. Suter and Houser are the literal definition of replacement-level players. Houser may rebound and produce more in line with 2021, when he was a good #4 starter, but I question whether he is likely to do so given the new rules. If you're going to jettison Renfroe due to cost, which his production actually justifies, then you have to apply the same logic to Suter and Houser, as their production this year does not come close to matching their projected cost The whole (potentially) non-tendering Renfroe and then signing Benintendi (for the same cost or greater) thing is just bizarre. In that situation, the savings should be used to bolster the bullpen and rotation depth. Based on Stearns' season-ending press conference, that is the direction he seems to want to take.
  6. Brewcrew82
    That's because, as I've stated before, every team has its own private system that it mostly uses. A public system such as this is not relied on, but used occasionally to "check their work."
  7. Brewcrew82
    Delete please. Stupid enter button. lol
  8. Brewcrew82
    I'll just leave it at this as I've already spent a long time defending the site: it's been accurate on 94.8% of actual trades since its inception.
  9. Brewcrew82
    Yeah, the numbers and logic just doesn't make sense whatsoever with Benintendi because the whole idea behind your non-tendering of Renfroe was to save money to upgrade other areas of the roster. Benintendi blows away that savings at the same position and for literally the same production as Renfroe, when we already have, as you say, tremendous outfield depth in AAA. Let's face it, you just don't like Renfroe for some reason. I don't understand it, as he was one of the few bright-spots on the season and remains a top 10 RF in baseball. And why are you so sure that the Brewers would non-tender Renfroe, but not Suter and Houser? If the whole idea is to save money when you can get similar production from elsewhere in the organization, then that logic should certainly extend to Suter and Houser, who combined for a grand -.5 WAR on the season. They're not going to just give Feliciano the back-up catcher spot based on how long he's been in the organization. He actually has to prove that he's capable of handling it, which hasn't happened to this point, especially with respect to his defense.
  10. Brewcrew82
    You're going to non-tender Renfroe, but not Suter or Houser?? And if we did move on from Renfroe, why on earth would we go ahead and sign Benintendi, who will not only command the same amount of money in FA, but would effectively block our young OF's? Finally, Feliciano could definitely be worse than Narvaez/Caratini as his defense was atrocious in AAA this year.
  11. Brewcrew82
    "Anecdotal" proof/evidence, you'll notice I said. You'd be hard-pressed to get a GM to make that declaration on the record. The article is full of other quotes, too, FWIW, like "both armchair and real GM's use John Blitzer's website to get a sense of what returns their teams can expect in actual deals."". And the site has been accurate on 94.8% of actual trades. It's not the Bible for sure, but it's as close as we'll get as fans to the teams' main, non-public valuation systems. Actually, Corbin Burnes' current value (78.3) is not even close to the Juan Soto package. Juan Soto's MTV at the time of the trade was 165.6 and the package the Nationals received was worth 143.0. If you're referring to his value earlier in the year of around 130, it seems pretty accurate to me given that Soto and Burnes have the same amount of team control remaining and are among the elite of the elite at their respective positions.
  12. Brewcrew82
    Yes. there is anecdotal proof. I just provided a screenshot from an Athletic article in my response to another poster. Of course, teams have their own valuation systems that they primarily rely on, but this really isn't that much different. They use it more to "check their work", as the article states. You're right the Jays wouldn't accept that deal, but that's because they would want younger (and cheaper) talent. The values aren't static, they go up and down based on production, age, control, etc. For example, Corbin Burnes' median value at the beginning of the year was around 130, but it has now gone down to 78.3 due to the expiration of another year of team control. Yeah, not sure where the poster got the idea that Jansen slowed down. He was pretty consistent throughout the season, and had his best month in September/October.
  13. Brewcrew82
    Once again, you are wrong. Should do some research before spouting stuff off. From an Athletic article, in addition to other quotes.
  14. Brewcrew82
    Huhh? His best month was September/October, where he had essentially two times at-bats as the first month....Again, led all MLB catchers in wRC+. I'm just going off of https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/, which is known to be used in some capacity by MLB GM's.
  15. Brewcrew82
    "As mentioned to me before in other threads"???? This is literally the first time I've even proposed this swap. so not sure what you're talking about there. To be honest, your tone is pretty condescending. Anyways, I disagree, because hitters are more valuable than relievers, which is all that Puk is at this point. Moreover, if the A's think there's something to Hiura's adjustments at the plate, they might think they can eventually flip him for prospect(s). Moreover, the value lines up evenly per https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. Treinen's precise value is hard to pin down as he was injured for most of this season. I just don't see the Dodgers picking up the option given that they also have some key players set to hit FA. On the open market, it may take something around $10 mil. to get him to come to Milwaukee.
  16. Brewcrew82
    He's entering his prime and the metrics back up his breakout. He was good in 2021 as well. Compare that to what we got from the catcher position this year. Huge upgrade.
  17. Brewcrew82
    It doesn't have to be Wiemer. You can probably substitute any one of our AAA OF prospects to headline the deal. But we need upgrades on offense and Jansen provides a great opportunity due to the Jays roster crunch at catcher. We'll have to trade one of our outfielders eventually. Narvaez just doesn't hit the ball hard enough. His hard hit metrics are UGLY.
  18. Brewcrew82
    Jansen is really good (led all catchers in wRC+), we desperately need a catcher, and we have a surplus of outfield prospects. I like Wiemer, but he's just a prospect and has probably the highest variance of anyone in our farm system. You have to give to get.
  19. Brewcrew82
    If they were to trade Burnes (highly unlikely), I don't see them immediately going out and signing Abreu and Clevinger. If anything, they'd pocket the savings and go full-steam ahead with the rookies and the prospects from the Burnes trade. Also, that isn't enough for Burnes. What the Reds got for Castillo is your reference point and should probably exceed that given that Burnes would have 2 full seasons of team control.
  20. Brewcrew82
    Jansen led all MLB catchers in WRC+ last season. He's more than a "slightly above-average" catcher. I was going based off https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/. Jansen's surplus trade value is 17.8, which requires Wiemer+ to match.
  21. Brewcrew82
    This ignores the fact that Kirk is regularly featured at DH, which, if they traded Jansen, would make Moreno the starter. You trade the guy with the least amount of team control, which is Jansen.
  22. Brewcrew82
    The Jays have three starting to elite caliber catchers. They are going to be severely hard pressed to go into next season with all of them on their roster. Thus, they will have to trade one of them, and Jansen is the most likely candidate as he has the least amount of club control Also, you should look at this site, which provides you with a rough estimate of a player's trade value. It is known to be used by major league executives in at least some capacity. You will notice that Jansen has median value of 17.8. In comparison, Houser's median value is 6.1., or less than half of Jansen's. Even a prospect like Joey Wiemer doesn't get you all the way there on his own. So, yes, while it wouldn't cost a Chourio or a Frelick, it will definitely cost one of our upper-tier prospects to acquire Jansen. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/
  23. Brewcrew82
    Houser doesn't get you even close. It's going to require one of our top AAA prospects to headline the deal imo.
  24. Brewcrew82
    His offensive stats are nothing to write home about??? His 140 WRC+ led all MLB catchers with at least 200 plate appearances...
  25. Brewcrew82
    Good stuff and in line with what I'm thinking. I would probably decline the option on Wong though and use that $10 million to go after a reliever and/or starting pitching depth. Turang is ready. However, a trade for Danny Jansen will likely require more prospect capital than what you're currently giving TOR. A Wiemer/Mitchell/Turang would probably have to headline the deal.
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