Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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I do think you would have seen an elite rotation last year, too, had Peralta and Woodruff not been out for significant stretches and their innings not gone to Alexander, Chi Chi, Small, etc. There's a reason we're projected by Steamer/Fangraphs to have the 3rd best rotation in baseball by fWAR...
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His league worst K%, BABIP, HR-FB ratio, and expected stats indicate the exact opposite...And his numbers already declined in August/September...
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In a similar # of PAs, though???
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Brewcrew82 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Tatis is one of the few I'd actually seriously consider giving up Chourio for. Not sure if I'd follow through with it, but I'd be very tempted... -
Yeah. But this was also his first full season as a reliever. I'm thinking he's Drew Pomeranz 2.0. His Baseball Savant page is also really nice. If he threw his changeup even more (45.7% Whiff rate, 16.8% Usage), he could even improve/maintain his numbers.
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Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore are the names I really have interest in for relief pitchers. Either could slot into the later innings, and I'd feel good about the bullpen.
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Raw power he's been pegged around 55/60. So, above average. Game power he's below average due to the swing. I do agree that the first thing he should focus on is lessen the K rate. A 40% K rate just won't cut it in the bigs. Thankfully, he's been in the mid to low 20s throughout the minors.
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That Marlins series is depressing to think about. If those games went the way they should've gone, we'd have been in the playoffs for the 5th straight year despite everything...
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With the swing he currently has, we're probably looking at a 260/330/380 hitter. With his defense and speed, that's okay, and he'll certainly be better than replacement level. But he's got 60 grade raw power in there and could be so much more.
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Yeah, we'll see what the Brewers do with Frelick. My money is still on him being on the OD roster due to the draft-pick incentive, but an extra year of control is valuable as well. But, like you say, Mitchell has the inside track.
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Out of all of our outfield prospects, Mitchell is the one I'm leery of the most and the one I'm most willing to part with. Yes he's awesome in the OF and possesses above average raw power, but he'll never tap into that raw power unless he completely changes his swing and the K rate for a guy who relies on his speed is alarming. Man, would I love to get Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for him... That being said, I agree that you can pretty much pencil him into CF on Opening Day as he already has that MLB experience and didn't fall flat on his face (at least according to the surface level stats). Though, the Brewers do have an incentive to play Frelick right away as a top 100 prospect who could realistically be in contention for ROY....
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Brewcrew82 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'd do 2 with a lottery ticket added, but not 1 or 3... -
Winker is likely to be a DH predominantly. He’s our replacement for McCutchen.
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I'm thinking the latter given that he'll be hitting in more cavernous T-Mobile. Am Fam was about as friendly as it gets for his particular swing.
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Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras
Brewcrew82 replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't think so. What you almost certainly saw was a guy being naturally emotional after being traded from the only organization he has ever known and one he won a WS with. I'm sure he's back home in Venezuela enjoying the offseason, which is why we have yet to hear from him. No reason to be worried about a Sheffield situation right now. -
Absolutely no surprise that it's the Hader trade. That one might be tough to top for a while. Sucks how it turned out. But I'm happy to have Contreras and Gasser.
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Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras
Brewcrew82 replied to homer's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I would wait into this season before offering an extension given that he has 5 more years of control remaining. We need to see how he adapts after his "rookie" (I know, not technically) season and to his new surroundings. But if he goes ahead and immediately starts reproducing last year's numbers, then lock him up ASAP. I get we have Quero in the pipeline, but there's the DH and God knows we're desperate for hitters, particularly ones who crush LHP... -
I never anointed him as a savior. That's just putting words in my mouth. I don't know how you can say fandom is tainting my views either when I'm literally just regurgitating widely available stats. All of which, aside from 2022 (where Hiura had almost 300 less plate appearances), say that Winker is a superior hitter. And the two season previous to that, Winker was a top 15 hitter in the entire game. Nor was he even "horrendous" last season. Statistically, he was an above average hitter (109 wRC+). We do have to wait and see how he responds to surgery, but I see no reason not to be optimistic given that he's only 29...God knows we can use his high OBP/low K profile in this lineup at the bare minimum.
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Steamer Projections for 2023: Winker: .249/.355/.424 (122 wRC+) Hiura: .215/.298/.408 (99 wRC+) Renfroe: .240/.304/.468 (116 wRC+) Wong: .251/.323/.387 (109 wRC+) Probably a conservative estimate for Winker, too, given his career line....
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Better than McCutchen. Hiura also got like 300 less at-bats...Given his K rate and other metrics, he likely would've fallen below Winker, too.
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Plus it's not like any of our current aces were ace starting pitchers from the get-go (see Woodruff 2017/18, Burnes/Peralta 2019). I remain quite optimistic about Ashby due to his SO stuff and extreme ground-ball profile. Hopefully he takes last year's lessons to heart starting this spring.
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Yeah, we'll see. I wouldn't be absolutely opposed to Hiura being on the opening day roster. Just not as someone who we'd be relying on to play a major role in this offense.
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Or they haven't found a taker or a trade that's to their liking...Still a ways to go.
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Yeah, I'm not saying it's a guarantee or anything. That would not square with reality. But the chances are relatively low imo that Winker has suddenly fallen off a cliff at the age of 28 after 5 straight seasons of high-level to elite hitting. Even in 2022, he was still an above average hitter. Throw in the fact that he's going from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to a place where he absolutely rakes and a division that he absolutely rakes in, and I'm feeling quite optimistic about him as our primary DH in 2023.
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Guy has as good of stuff as anyone on this pitching staff, including Corbin Burnes. Looking forward to him hopefully taking that next step in 2023. I'm a believer.
