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Brewcrew82

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Everything posted by Brewcrew82

  1. Brewcrew82
    And which stat did I cherry pick, exactly, "Mr. I literally signed up today and am going to start calling people names"? These are as fundamental as it gets for pitching. I guess I could've included SIERA, but it wouldn't make a difference.
  2. Brewcrew82
    And which stat did I cherry pick, exactly, "Mr. I literally signed up today and am going to start calling people names"? These are as fundamental as it gets for pitching. I guess I could've included SIERA, but it wouldn't make a difference.
  3. Brewcrew82
    Off the top of my head, I would trade him for: Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna, Yordan Alvarez, and Adley Rutschman. But that's about it. Probably not even for Mike Trout, which is crazy.
  4. Brewcrew82
    I'm not saying they're not elite starting pitchers or an elite top of the rotation. I'm just saying that they don't quite match up to those teams, which is validated by the statistical comparison below. Since 2020: Burnes and Woodruff: 822.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, 31.85 K%, 25.55 K-BB% 24.6 fWAR Wheeler and Nola: 894.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 28.25 K%, 23.05 K-BB%, 25.9 fWAR DeGrom and Scherzer: 616.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 37.35 K%, 32.4 K-BB% 21.3 fWAR Urias and Kershaw: 716 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 21.45 K-BB%, 17.9 fWAR
  5. Brewcrew82
    I'm not saying they're not elite starting pitchers or an elite top of the rotation. I'm just saying that they don't quite match up to those teams, which is validated by the statistical comparison below. Since 2020: Burnes and Woodruff: 822.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, 31.85 K%, 25.55 K-BB% 24.6 fWAR Wheeler and Nola: 894.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 28.25 K%, 23.05 K-BB%, 25.9 fWAR DeGrom and Scherzer: 616.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 37.35 K%, 32.4 K-BB% 21.3 fWAR Urias and Kershaw: 716 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 21.45 K-BB%, 17.9 fWAR
  6. Brewcrew82
    Yes, But these rosters are completely different. Our strength right now is by far our starting pitching. Take that away and we have little else to fall back on ATM. A Burnes/Woodruff trade, in which you eat away at our major strength, wouldn't win us more games this year without major outside additions, which is a huge ask with our limited resources.
  7. Brewcrew82
    Yes, But these rosters are completely different. Our strength right now is by far our starting pitching. Take that away and we have little else to fall back on ATM. A Burnes/Woodruff trade, in which you eat away at our major strength, wouldn't win us more games this year without major outside additions, which is a huge ask with our limited resources.
  8. Brewcrew82
    I was talking about the last three years. You don't become among the best in the game based on one season.
  9. Brewcrew82
    I was talking about the last three years. You don't become among the best in the game based on one season.
  10. Brewcrew82
    Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings.
  11. Brewcrew82
    Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings.
  12. Brewcrew82
    Burnes has been the best starter in baseball since 2020. No one has numbers across the board as good as him and over as many innings as him in that time frame. He's in the "bucket of buckets" with DeGrom (when healthy) and probably Scherzer. Woodruff is in the "bucket" after that, and even then there's only 5-8 guys in it at most with him (Wheeler, Nola, Cole, etc.). So, yes, other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation. Certainly not the Cardinals, who are our primary competition in the NL Central.
  13. Brewcrew82
    Burnes has been the best starter in baseball since 2020. No one has numbers across the board as good as him and over as many innings as him in that time frame. He's in the "bucket of buckets" with DeGrom (when healthy) and probably Scherzer. Woodruff is in the "bucket" after that, and even then there's only 5-8 guys in it at most with him (Wheeler, Nola, Cole, etc.). So, yes, other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation. Certainly not the Cardinals, who are our primary competition in the NL Central.
  14. Brewcrew82
    I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they immediately go out and trade for/sign SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games without one or both of them isn't "silly", it's reality.
  15. Brewcrew82
    I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they immediately go out and trade for/sign SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games without one or both of them isn't "silly", it's reality.
  16. Brewcrew82
    This is still the most likely scenario, imo. Everything that Stearns has said about "bringing back the core" and "competing" indicates this. Without Burnes and/or Woodruff, they'll be lucky to win more than 85 games. With both of them, they have a shot to win 95. Extend one of them (probably Woodruff) this offseason and then trade the other next offseason for a still significant haul.
  17. Brewcrew82
    This is still the most likely scenario, imo. Everything that Stearns has said about "bringing back the core" and "competing" indicates this. Without Burnes and/or Woodruff, they'll be lucky to win more than 85 games. With both of them, they have a shot to win 95. Extend one of them (probably Woodruff) this offseason and then trade the other next offseason for a still significant haul.
  18. Brewcrew82
    Interesting. My guess is that they sign one of Burnes or Woodruff (probably Woodruff) to an extension this offseason, in the mold of the recent Castillo and Musgrove deals. Besides the fact that it is so hard to develop elite starting pitching in the first place, they might feel the need to do so given the huge hit they took from the fanbase after the Hader trade. They would get absolutely excoriated for trading Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff in successive years.
  19. Brewcrew82
    Contreras isn't coming to Milwaukee. Nor would I want him to.
  20. Brewcrew82
    Contreras isn't coming to Milwaukee. Nor would I want him to.
  21. Brewcrew82
    Yeah, there's no point to the Brewers acquiring Buehler as he's currently on the mend from TJ surgery, will become a FA at the same time as Burnes, and has shown diminished skills recently. This is a straight-up rebuild, no doubt about it. Which conflicts with every statement Stearns has made.
  22. Brewcrew82
    Yeah, I just don't know if the value is there. Wouldn't bring much more power than Urias either considering Urias has hit more homers in a single season than Urshela. And Urias has more team control than Urshela. Granted, Urias isn't the one being traded and could be moved to 2B, but then you're limiting Turang's playing time. I think we can probably make better use of our resources. Renfroe may be needed to guard against the inevitable growing pains from our rookie OFs.
  23. Brewcrew82
    It's not really an improvement at 3B considering Urias also put up a 3.1 bWAR this season....Also, Renfroe isn't really preventing our young outfielders from getting playing time. They're going to want Yelich to get more at-bats at DH as his defense is hurting his value, which leaves LF and CF open for Frelick, Mitchell, and co. If anything, Renfroe provides valuable insurance in the OF against the inevitable rookie growing pains.
  24. Brewcrew82
    Again, why would the Brewers sign Benintendi, when A) he would almost certainly cost more than Renfroe who you're non-tendering and B) when they have Frelick who is basically a cheaper, faster version of him. Frelick in RF, as you have it, doesn't work either as his arm is mediocre. You say Suter can make a spot-start, but he hasn't done so in almost two years. He's the definition of a low-leverage, replacement-level reliever (-0.2 fWAR) who the Brewers could replace internally at a fraction of the $3 million cost. For someone who wants to create payroll flexibility, to the extent that he is determined to non-tender Renfroe, that is completely non-sensical. Moreover, his age and underlying numbers from this past season indicate (4.40 FIP) that he is due to suffer further decline. As for Vasquez and Caratini, their value was nearly identical by fWAR, with Vasquez just barely edging out Caratini. And their underlying numbers were also virtually identical. Caratini was slightly better at framing per baseball savant, while Vasquez was slightly better per fangraphs. Definitely doesn't justify a $5.0 Mil. difference in their salaries. Feliciano is not going to be the back-up C. Your back-up catcher actually has to be respectable defensively. Feliciano is nowhere near respectable defensively ATM.
  25. Brewcrew82
    I highlighted this in my updated payroll blueprint, but I think Adames to the Dodgers for Vargas and Pepiot makes a lot of sense for both sides. For the Brewers, it finally provides you with your 1B of the future, and a high contact one at that, while Pepiot gives Stearns the increased pitching depth that he talked about in his season-ending press conference. Turang takes over at SS for Adames, which is his natural position. For the Dodgers, they are substituting what they paid for Turner over the last two years with Adames' last two years of arbitration, and for similar production. I likewise think they're going to be hesitant to dip into the elite FA SS market, including Turner, with all of the other holes they will have to address on their roster, especially on the pitching side of things. I think their main focus is going to be on the FA contingent of DeGrom, Rodon, Verlander, Diaz, and Judge. They need ace postseason pitchers/relievers and a big outfield bat to pair with Betts.
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