Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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Service time games. It's funny because we supposedly traded Renfroe because he was blocking time for our young OFs
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Yeah, possible Wiemer or Frelick could end up forcing their way even before Taylor returns.
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Yeah Winker isn't going to be much of an option in RF this year...Brewers defense blowing three straight outs for Freddy here..
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Possible, even likely lol. He's raked at literally every stop in the minors. Then, once he gets called back up to majors he proceeds to struggles with Ks. Like clockwork.
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They already have a Merrill Kelly in Miles Mikolas. Not that he wouldn't be helpful in providing quality innings during the regular season, but again, what they lack compared to every other contender, including the Brewers, is big arm, ace pitching. They're going to have a hard time going with Mikolas, Wainwright, and Montgomery against the likes of Verlander, Scherzer, Fried, Strider, Wheeler, Nola, Burnes, Woodruff, Urias, Darvish, etc. It's probably the biggest reason why they've sucked in the postseason recently.
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What Level Will Prospects Begin in 2023?
Brewcrew82 replied to jay87shot's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Nashville and Biloxi are going to be really fun to keep track of to start between Frelick, Wiemer, Chourio, Black, and Quero. Kind of jealous as a part time Appleton resident, but hopefully Mendez can have a Chourio-lite breakthrough season. -
Right, which is why I acknowledged they have an advantage. I just believe it’s closer than you think and is largely canceled out by the difference in the starting rotations. Though, I wouldn’t say Walker, Burleson are any more advanced than Wiemer, Frelick. Cardinals just decided to bring them up for opening day, while we opted to hold our guys down likely for service time manipulation. Winn could make an impact later in the season, but so could Chourio… O’Neil, Carlson, Gorman are also pretty big question marks still. And I wouldn’t bank on Arenado and Goldschmidt repeating their career years, considering their ages (Goldschmidt especially) and over performance relative to their stat cast profiles. Just like we should never have expected our starting pitching to repeat their 2021 numbers heading into last season.
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I don’t know if there’s going to be any ace type arms available that would move the needle for them. Burnes ain’t happening, in which case we’d likely be out of the race anyways. Bieber if the Guardians are out of it? But otherwise the top pitchers in baseball are heavily distributed amongst contending teams this year. Cards are taking a huge gamble with that rotation.
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Disagree. I think it’s about an even advantage. If Peralta stays healthy like 2021, that’s three big time strikeout arms that the Cardinals don’t have the ability to match at all. On the position player side, I think our OF depth matches up pretty well with our prospects. Their OFs are obviously a little more proven but I think talent wise it’s even. Catchers cancel each other out. First base is advantage Cardinals, but it might not be by as much as we think with Rowdy and Goldschmidt set to regress in complete opposite directions. Second base is pretty dang even as Turang and Donovan have almost identical profiles, with Donovan being more proven at the MLB level. SS is slight advantage Brewers as Adames and Edman are both elite defenders, but Adames possesses the higher offensive ceiling due to his power. Third base is probably the biggest gap with Arenado being as great as he is, but Urias isn’t exactly a slouch and who knows if Arenado can repeat the season he had last year especially in that ballpark. And then DH is pretty even as well. The Cardinals have great position player depth, but I wouldn’t say it’s that superior to ours. It’s just slightly more proven. I think it’s going to come down to how the Brewers bullpen takes shape in bridging the gap to Devin. If we can get that figured out (Uribe?), I think we’ll be in good shape.
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Their lineup is pretty legit as Nootbar I think is due for a big breakout (just look at his Statcast page). Then, you have O'Neil who is due for positive regression, though I doubt he's the MVP candidate he showed in 2021. And Contreras is a HUGE upgrade offensively over Yadi. Walker could easily be a ROY candidate. Those players will help cancel out some of the likely negative regression from Goldschmidt and Arenado. But their starting pitching is absolutely atrocious. Verlander is high...
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WILLIAM CONTRERAS SZN
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It's more of a mystery what this team sees in Bryse Wilson. He sucks and has for quite a while now. Hopefully he's just this year's Jose Urena.
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And he's a homeboy?? lol Gotta sell tickets, right?
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The Cardinals rotation is not good at all. They are the worst in the league at missing bats, and feature 35-40 year olds and injury prone guys galore. For as much of an advantage they have at the plate, we basically make that up with our starting pitching. Which makes me think that the season will come down to how well our bullpen comes together before Devin. There is also virtually zero chance that Arenado and Goldschmidt, in their early to mid 30s, both have career seasons again.
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I'm not saying you should have complete confidence in the guy, and I agree he's due for some regression, but just take a look at Lauer's spring numbers the last three seasons...More than likely, he'll be fine for what he's slated for; namely, holding down a back of the rotation slot.
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Plus if they do get to the point where they're consistently tearing the cover off the ball and become unoptionable, then you start talking early extension and buying out FA years, a la the Atlanta Braves. In which case the service time debate becomes moot.
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Except he has managed over 100 innings pitched before (144.1 IP the year before last). And he's been really good to elite on a rate basis when he has pitched. No one would say Peralta is a shining example of durability at this point, but he's been more durable more recently than Flaherty and has also outperformed him on a rate basis throughout.
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True the Cardinals have a really good every day lineup, but you should take a look at what they're going to try to throw out there for the rotation.
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Interesting article from the Athletic (subscription required, highly recommend) in which they have insiders from throughout the industry evaluate SPs on a points system (1-100) and then rank them accordingly. As you would expect, the Brewers are featured heavily. Burnes earns a 97 rating and tied for #2 with Cole and behind Verlander. 2.5 point drop from 2022 preseason. Woodruff with an 84 rating and tied for 12th with McClanahan. 8.5 drop from 2022 preseason. Peralta with a 50 rating and tied for 49th with Charlie Morton and Tyler Anderson. 13 point drop from 2022 preseason. Obviously none of our top 3 were as good as they were in 2021, so you can’t complain too much about the drop in points. Burnes is right where I’d put him, though not behind Verlander. I would probably have Woodruff up a couple spots due to how dominant he was post-May. Peralta I think is about 10 spots too low imo, but I can’t argue too much due to how much time he missed last year. The real issue is who he ranks behind; namely, Jack Flaherty. Guy will live off his 2019 2nd half for eternity seemingly, when he’s always injured and not that good anymore even when he does pitch. https://theathletic.com/4328582/2023/03/23/mlb-aces-project-pitcher-rankings/?source=user_shared_article
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Main question now seems to be Frelick or Wiemer, assuming that Houser ends up on the IL to start the season. I think you have to go with Frelick despite his left-Handedness. Besides the fact that he’s eligible for draft pick compensation unlike Wiemer, his bat is clearly ready. Start Frelick out in the 9 hole, and let him work his way to the top of the order.
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Wiemer's not eligible for draft pick compensations so it doesn't even matter. Only Frelick (and Chourio) are....
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He K'd 36% in 2020's shortened season, yet still put up a 126 wRC+. But like with ST, that was a SSS. He'll always have K issues, but he's no Hiura (unless he suddenly decided to change his swing like Hiura).
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Spring training stats are 99.9% meaningless. Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau are not suddenly going to turn into all-star hitters, and Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff are not going to combine for a near-5.00 ERA. Only thing to really pay attention to is injuries and velocity (for pitchers).
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YES. NO NAQUIN OR HIURA. Naquin is very meh, and Hiura can't get his strikeout rate below 40%...Probably means that one of Sal Frelick or Joey Wiemer will be on the OD roster, too. Sucks that it had to come to this, though, with a former #9 pick who looked like a burgeoning star after 2019. Never seen a 70 grade hit tool turn so sharply into a 40...
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We did make up for the Ray pick with the Burnes pick in round 4, though....
