It’s a real fine game to play when you’re “going for it” this season, yet decline to play your best players as often as possible. Especially when you missed the playoffs by a single game last season…
And it is mitigation when speaking about service time and team control, as the year of control that would be lost by having Frelick on the OD roster would be gained right back and then some with an extension. Would a few extra dollars be involved in the early years? Yes. But then you’re looking at potentially saving money on the back end in addition to gaining valuable cost certainty. This is why you’ve seen smart FO’s such as the Braves, D-backs, etc. adopt this tact recently…
As for the odds, I obviously don’t have a precise figure. But Steven Kwan, who is probably Frelick’s closest comparable atm, put up a 5.5 WAR last season... So, when things are as close as they were last year and are looking to be this year in the NL, those 2-3 weeks could literally be the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs. It’s one thing if you have a Tyrone Taylor to fill in the gaps during those 2 weeks to couple months; it’s an entirely different matter, however, when you’re looking at trying to get by with some combination of Tyler Naquin, Brian Anderson, and Owen Miller in the OF…