UpandIn
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Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The past 50 years, huh? LOL...no, I don't have a choice. Batters and hitting coaches haven't gotten "more stupid," and eschewed "shortening," and putting the ball in place with less than 2 outs. Where are you getting that from? You realize not every team is all or nothing like the Brewers, right? That guys like Boggs, Gwynn, Altuve, Ichiro, Jeter...I mean, countless others, they all played in this time period as well? The same time period when pitching has improved with deeper bullpen, more platoon matchup's, and a dozen other reasons, but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo? But thank you for telling me what my little league coach told me in Little League doesn't apply? -
Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
UpandIn replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This Arenado deal just annoys me. He'll opt out just because...why not. The Rockies are either paying him 20M or if he doesn't opt out they're paying 20M to the Cards. Edit-I take it back. He'll opt IN because just to stick it to the Rockies anyway. The Cards, who want to re-sign him and HOPE he doesn't opt out, they get 20M more if he opts in. So they work out a deal, he opts in, they extend his deal. Give him another 20M the final year of the current deal and then maybe an option year with a 15M buyout. You agree to give him another 35, only 15 of that comes out of your own pocket, so why not? They already paid 50M, let the Rockies pay 20 more. So the Cards got him for 3 prospects who are STILL in the low levels of the minors and not in the Rockies top 30, a 1B/DH who's a nice bat, but hardly anything special, and then a pitcher who's about the same age as Houser...but across the board just worse. But SURELY for that deal, the Cards were expected to eat that whole salary, right? Oh...that's right, the Rockies paid 50M toward the salary, PLUS another 20 that goes toward the Cards if he opts in and 20 to Arenado if he opts out. So it was effectively a 7 year 109M dollar deal for a 3B who was on a HOF trajectory who'd shown ZERO signs of slowing down. How does this trade manifest? Do you just call up and offer something stupid? Do we offer 3 prospects outside of our top 30, a pitcher, MAYBE Lauer and then say...Xavier Warren for Austin Riley with the Braves kicking in about 90M to pay for his salary moving forward. I'm SURE the Braves would take that phone call very seriously? Is Nolan Arenado to the Cards the worst trade in the last 20 years? -
Love that extension. I'd offer that extension to pretty much every young pitcher with even the whiff of his type of upside. I would think it's a given Burnes and Woodruff were given similar offers early on. And I'd assume Hader and Williams, probably even Houser and Lauer, though...the later already had a some service time when he got here and before his velocity had ticked up. Ashby has such a wide range of potential outcomes, but he has legit Ace upside. His GB rate+ his strikes outs. He was one of the reasons I thought they had a real chance this year. Not that he'd reach that this year, but that he could have been to this team what Burnes/Woody were to the '18 team...and maybe he will next year.
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I just said, "he struggled badly in AAA and the Brewers, while not flush with top end catching talent, they did have 3-4 AAA worthy catching prospects and Reetz just wasn't hitting well at that level." It was more about the roster crunch and I'm guessing if he'd have hit .257/.342/.517 in 81 PAs rather than .212/.254/.424 in 71 AAA ABs, he probably still would have been DFAd...but he was also struggling in AAA.
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I just said, "he struggled badly in AAA and the Brewers, while not flush with top end catching talent, they did have 3-4 AAA worthy catching prospects and Reetz just wasn't hitting well at that level." It was more about the roster crunch and I'm guessing if he'd have hit .257/.342/.517 in 81 PAs rather than .212/.254/.424 in 71 AAA ABs, he probably still would have been DFAd...but he was also struggling in AAA.
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Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Again, I really did. However as it had nothing to do with our struggles with RISP, it's not relevant to this. More than one thing can in fact go wrong during a season. Really? Trying to make contact with RISP and shortening up leads to worse results for "most hitters?" I'd like to see anything that supports that. BABIP with RISP is higher than BA overall. So...seems like a difficult argument to make that making contact with runners in scoring position vs striking out would lead to worse results. But yeah, I'd rather not talk about shooting craps when talking Baseball. -
Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Again, I really did. However as it had nothing to do with our struggles with RISP, it's not relevant to this. More than one thing can in fact go wrong during a season. Really? Trying to make contact with RISP and shortening up leads to worse results for "most hitters?" I'd like to see anything that supports that. BABIP with RISP is higher than BA overall. So...seems like a difficult argument to make that making contact with runners in scoring position vs striking out would lead to worse results. But yeah, I'd rather not talk about shooting craps when talking Baseball. -
Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yes, but not relative to the rest of the league. The AVERAGE BA with RISP was ~10 points higher. So they were just as bad relative to the rest of the league at getting hits with RISP as they were getting hits to begin with. Not their batting average...which was the statistic both you and Svuem cited. They were well below league average. .246, league AVERAGE .253. That's not better than most teams. Ok....? The point was made that we struggled hitting with RISP. You said "people need to stop saying that," beacuse their BA was higher with RISP than it was on balance. And again, it is for all of Baseball. There are a myriad of reasons why it's easier to get a hit with RISP...in no small part to IF positioning. They'll often play their IF in, or they can't shift with a runner on 2nd. The pitcher is more apt to give in to a hitter so as to not put another runner on. WHATEVER it is, we were below average in the league in BA AND BA with RISP and the comment wasn't made "we need to improve our hitting with RISP," it was simply pointed out...that was a problem. It's also nothing like saying "I Need to roll more sevens." It's more like saying, "we need hitters who can shorten up, put the ball in play, and particularly with less than 2 outs, get runners over and in." Kolten Wong himself talked about how he liked how in Milwaukee, they didn't ask you to shorten up with 2 strikes...and that's obviously an organizational philosophy because...we were 26th in K rate? There's a reason you want power pitchers with the Manfred runner on 2nd base. Because a strikeout is huge and can help you get out of the innings...or just help you get out of trouble anytime you're dealing with runners in scoring position and fewer than 2 outs. We were 26th in that category. That's just bad baseball. -
Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yes, but not relative to the rest of the league. The AVERAGE BA with RISP was ~10 points higher. So they were just as bad relative to the rest of the league at getting hits with RISP as they were getting hits to begin with. Not their batting average...which was the statistic both you and Svuem cited. They were well below league average. .246, league AVERAGE .253. That's not better than most teams. Ok....? The point was made that we struggled hitting with RISP. You said "people need to stop saying that," beacuse their BA was higher with RISP than it was on balance. And again, it is for all of Baseball. There are a myriad of reasons why it's easier to get a hit with RISP...in no small part to IF positioning. They'll often play their IF in, or they can't shift with a runner on 2nd. The pitcher is more apt to give in to a hitter so as to not put another runner on. WHATEVER it is, we were below average in the league in BA AND BA with RISP and the comment wasn't made "we need to improve our hitting with RISP," it was simply pointed out...that was a problem. It's also nothing like saying "I Need to roll more sevens." It's more like saying, "we need hitters who can shorten up, put the ball in play, and particularly with less than 2 outs, get runners over and in." Kolten Wong himself talked about how he liked how in Milwaukee, they didn't ask you to shorten up with 2 strikes...and that's obviously an organizational philosophy because...we were 26th in K rate? There's a reason you want power pitchers with the Manfred runner on 2nd base. Because a strikeout is huge and can help you get out of the innings...or just help you get out of trouble anytime you're dealing with runners in scoring position and fewer than 2 outs. We were 26th in that category. That's just bad baseball. -
Sure...makes sense. I know I'm probably alone, but I'd like to see the Brewers be very aggressive in going after another elite, high end SU man as I don't have a great feeling about Wlliams. I think it's the fact that he relies SO heavily on that change and that so many of his pitches are out of the zone. He's lost that big FB to attack hitters with, so it's just changeup's. Which in all fairness, that's worked just fine for him, but I think we need a contingency option. I do think that can be Bush still. But again, gotta get that FB up in the zone. By the way, 6th Starter/LR you have Houser over Ashby. Do you have Ashby in the rotation then? Also, interesting note I just saw yesterday. Greg Maddux induced 18 Ground Balls in a game 20 times. All active pitchers have done so 18 times TOTAL(Houser being one of them). Could also be a guy who thrives in that role. The old adage about sinker ball pitchers throwing better the most often they're used or with the less rest they get. Plus, he can also throw in the mid 90's more regularly in shorter stints. But I also still have some faith if healthy he's a viable starter.
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In 2021 he was in his first full year of MiLB. He was drafted, went to rookie ball and tore it up, then covid. Then a very aggressive promotion to AA where he struggled...which seems kinda expected. And then this year he showed good power, good plate discipline, and maybe as or more importantly, he is apparently an outstanding defender. If, hypothetically, they'd have sent him to A ball last year and he hit ~.300/.400/.550 with 25 HRs while playing 3B and SS at a very high level and THEN came back and excelled at 3B/SS, I suspect people may be higher on him. I'll be honest though, I don't get the "he should play well," when talking about a guy who just turned 25 at the start of the year and then hit AA/AAA. Does that mean for a good prospect he "should play well?" Because obviously most players don't play well at AA, regardless of age. He was league average and was among the league leaders in most offensive categories. That's just my take. As I said, I didn't know anything about him until another member keep signing his praises and I went in search of some scouting reports and some video of him and he has a BIG arm and he looks very slide at 3B in particular, but also pretty smooth at SS. But hey, that's the thing about these lists. You don't have to agree. It'd be boring. The poster after you had Stiven Cruz at #44 to your #16. Kinda fitting when considering what a crapshoot this all is. I just read he had issues staying academically eligible...which limited some of the looks scouts got at him. That seems to make sense. A big 6'5 righty with an upper 90s FB... If all he threw was 14IP in the Cape Cod league...stands to reason that could have been the reason he fell out of the top 10 and then why he signed in the 11th. Hopefully his aversion to class is our gain.
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Maybe he couldn't do it consistently...but I think if that was their goal, they'd have O'Donnell kicking off. He can almost definitely kick it out of the endzone is normal conditions. The problem is, too much of our season is played in poor conditions, particularly for a kicker. That's certainly possible and I think you're in the majority in holding that opinion. We remain in cap purgatory...where we will stay...regardless of the cap increasing and even if they do finish paying back their Covid losses this year(though a nice 50M bump would make things...MUCH easier). The list of key contributors who are free agents is a long one and Crosby would be ~40 at the end of another deal. But I think he's one of several players who's fate will be determined by Rodgers. It's hard to see them going with a rookie kicker given the great lengths they've gone to fix STs while contending. And of course it'll depend on Crosby. If he's back to how he was hitting the ball prior to last year, it might be hard to roll the dice with a rookie from Alabama or some other warm climate which is where ALL the good kickers seem to come from. There is a kid from Indiana who has a monster leg, but I don't know if it's an NFL caliber one. Crosby was just such a seemingly obvious choice when we drafted him. One of the all time clutch kickers, kicked at Col in Snow, Sleet...just awful conditions. I think it'll be a little difficult to find another kicker who can have the same success he's had in such poor conditions. Edit-Most Clutch Kickers ever...though for whatever reason, ever Bleacher Report articles seems to be from April of 2012, so...not exactly up to date, but still. Next up, Least Clutch Kickers of all time-1-25 Every kicker FSU had between 1975 and Janikowski.
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I don't know about Chafin, but I'd be fine if our big signing was a high leverage reliever. Chafin can certainly get right handers out, Lugo was very impressive when I saw him in the Mets series. There are guys DS maybe takes a flier on in Britton...who should be full go for the start of STing next year. Again, IF you run it back, unless you can sign Jose Areu, I'm not seeing the FA's available who match up with our needs, or who are realistic in terms of position players.
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I can't even be bothered anymore. 4 year deal for Suter. Why? Those are some solid BP arms, but not really the big power arms you'd prefer. A healthy off-season by Topa and Cousins could help each of them out. Bush is certainly a hard thrower and I think if he can just get used to throwing his FB in the upper part of the zone, the "Keston Hiura" part of the strike zone, he could have a LOT more success. Strezelecki solid and very effective as a middle inning reliever. But we don't really have many guys who can just beat you power on power as we did with Hader, Burnes, Woodruff and that run in 2018. Respective FB velocity; Strezelecki 93.5 Cousins 95.7 in 30IP and 18IP Topa 95.6 Bush 97.4 Boxberger 92.8 Williams 94.1 For a reliever, that's...not really a lot of hard throwers. Compared to the Cards Helsley 99.7 Pallante 95.3 Hicks 98.0(first year under 101) Gallegos 94.5 Cabrera 97.9 Not to say we need 5 guys who can throw in the upper 90s(Gallegos average FB was a little surprising as it seemed like he was more consistently at 97-98). If that group can stay healthy, they can get by with them, but I think one of the priorities is to try and re-stock our BP. If Burnes and Woodruff are brought back, I think they need to try and shore up the backend of that BP...and I don't know how exactly they do it. Hopefully between Ecerg, Harris, some of the harder throwers in our system, they can harness their stuff next year and prove themselves a bit more in AAA. Each showed signs this year. Ecerg has a long stretch of dominance, but would also then fall apart. But another year as a pitcher, MAYBE he's someone they could count on. Ruiz could be used to get a legitimate SU/CL. That Bautista from the Os would make sense if they weren't just getting ready to contend, but they do have several power arms and Ruiz makes a LOT of sense in their lineup. Feels like that could be a fit...unless the Brewers are higher on him than we think, in which case...trade someone else. But I also the Brewers to find guys who they think they can work with. Someone like Garrett Richards, a pitcher who's been a starter and who's stuff could play up in a more limited role or a Drew Pomeranz, but it's an area that I think we need improvement without obvious in-house help(as opposed to the lineup). I don't trust them to bring in a cost affordable veteran to supplement the offense, but BP arms, we do alright.
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Holby Milner over Suter and...then some NRI's. Giving Suter 3M or more would be a bad use of resources. And Jake Cousins has the type of stuff to be a VERY effective middle reliever or even, as you said, SU man. He'll be cheap and they've stuck with him this long. No reason to move on now when he's back, healthy and will have all off-season to rest his arm(or more likely rebuild his arm strength, but without the stress of throwing high leverage MLB innings).
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Packers special teams have been...pretty damn close to elite thus far. CERTAINLY relative to where they were last year. Start with the FG unit. They're tight, they're blocking very well and Crosby has hit everything clean. No missed kicks. Punt Unit- Leads the league in both punts inside the 20 with 11, percent of punts inside the 20 at ~62%...and they've downed multiple inside the 5. The KO unit has also been very good. Touchback percentage isn't really a goal, starting field position is. Otherwise every team would just have their kickers try and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. Pretty sure Crosby COULD do that if needed, but if he couldn't, O'Donnell could, but then you're giving up Field Position(and at this point I think it's really just working on doing it for when it gets colder. Still, Crosby IS kicking the majority of his kicks into the endzone with...yet again the longest average KO of his career just barely beating last years, but the goal is to kick them higher...so your coverage unit can get downfield and to one side of the field to limit their returns. He's done very well with that. Game by game; Vs Minnesota 2 KO, 1KR, 1 TB Starting Field Position 22 yardline Vs the Bears, 6 kickoffs, 5 KRs, 1TB average starting field position 17.6 yardline, 1 TB(2 more kicked into the endzone). Vs Tampa Bay 3 KO, 1 TB, avg field position, 24 yard line Vs NE 1TB, average field position 28.5 One big return(against the return specialist Marcus Jones they drafted) and that was kicked 4 yards deep into the Endzone. They haven't muffed a punt. Rodgers returns have been very solid in the return game. Night and Day from last year. 10 Fair catches, 8 returns, 8 yards per return. That's fine. But he hasn't let any go over his head. Hasn't lost the offense any yards. 5 KRs, average of ~21 yards per KR. 8 PR for an average of 8 yards per return and 10 Fair Catches. And a couple of those Punt Returns, they were just rolling around, so he fell on them. I don't know that you could ask much more out of a Special Teams Unit that fell apart last year vs SF the way it did to just finish off that **** sandwich they were eating all year long...it was almost as if people...on several sites predicted STs would cost the Packers at the worst times. O'Donnell is off to an incredible start. His only "flaw" would be the Packers have seldom kicked from deep in their own territory, so they don't have the big punts, but the few times they've needed them, he's come through. A 72 yarder, a couple 60+ yard punts. And Ford, Nixon, Walker and Leavitt have been outstanding. Hopefully Eric Wilson can step right in and be as well. Bottom line, we've had the WORST special teams in the NFL the last 5 years...even when we had Mason Crosby hitting 38 of 40 FGs. That we're ranked in the top 10 right now and it's 4 games in? Jesus...just name Rich Bisaccia the Coordinator of the year award right now and double his already league leading 2M AAV salary! Or wait until he does it through February, but it's been a huge bright spot in an otherwise..."meh," season.
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Well...depends on who you're picking. There is a reason why teams have gone so far under slot early on and the came back and went after guys with sign-ability concerns. I don't know if we'd have been able to sign Petty, Lege, Cijneje, Noot, Hall and Neal if they had the 2nd pick, but they certainly could have signed a couple of them. And they wouldn't have had to go after guys below slot in the top 10. Getting Hall, Noot and Neal alone would have probably been worth it. The Rangers were able to sign one of the top prep pitching prospects in Porter in the 4th round for just under 4M, but...there were still several players they couldn't afford. But either way, it gives us more money to add more talent.
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I'm fairly certain they can get any of the the top 6 spots, but that's it. There's a website with the odds that's similar to the ESPN NBA Mock lottery with the draft odds. According to that, they'll be picking 2nd and they will select Chase Dollander from Tennessee! The odds are terrible, but, what a boost to this system it'd be? Either take the BPA or go below slot and be in position to sign the 4-5 high upside players they couldn't come to terms with in this past draft.
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Especially, as he said, if it's an investment property. If you're making money on it, you can put it up on the market and leave it there for a while. I imagine that'd be very frustrating if you are looking for a house, but you're going to get hit on taxes, you've put in a whole lot of sweat equity, you've dealt with...unpleasant tenants.
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Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Apparently we also differ about the word proven. -
Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Apparently we also differ about the word proven. -
1-Jackson Chourio Nearly put Frelick here as good as he was in AAA, but Chourio getting the Acuna Jr comps with big power and 70 speed? 2-Sal Frelick 3-Brice Turang -I've liked him more since he was first drafted. 4-Jefferson Quero -Plus defensive catcher who outhit Chourio...albeit in a very small sampling in HiA, but still. 5-Joey Wiemer Maybe the highest ceiling of a position prospect outside of Chourio. Another build a player type prospect from a video game with his size, speed, throwing arm, power...etc...his swing is just loud and he may have a little swing and miss, but I think he'll click. 6-Garrett Mitchell -I really hope there are 3 players who are more MLB ready because Mitchell had a big impact on the Brewers with his speed. I think his defense will only get better as he gets more time in CF...he didn't seem comfortable near the warning track, but I don't expect that'll continue to be an issue. 7-Jacob Misiorowski deGrom like velocity...which can ONLY mean he's going to be the most dominant pitcher of his era, except he won't deal with arm injuries and he'll develop quicker than deGrom. And I think those are perfectly reasonable expectations... 8-Tyler Black The forgotten man. Could have been the "Nashville 6" if Black would have been healthy. Can play 3B, 2B, CF...presumably 1B. Arm limits his effectiveness at 3B(so I'm told, it looked good to me, but nobody's paying me to scout). And CF is probably out since we've got...6, 7 guys who are more likely CF prospects. 9-Robert Gasser 10-Estuery Ruiz 11-Jace Avina -That swing is...incredible. I don't know how to judge his bat speed from the limited clips I've seen, but that is a nice, quiet swing that stays in the zone. Very advanced approach for a 19 year old kid in full season ball. 12-Cam Devanney- A plus defender at 3B/SS? Have to imagine he'd be capable of playing all 4IF spots. But, could...maybe be that 3B we've been looking for? RHed bat which...normally isn't a plus, but we're about to be very LHed heavy. Plus, with the new rules regarding the shift, I think his value has really skyrocketed this past season. Mr. Zarr was ahead of the curve on this one. Also...looking at his trajectory, if he'd have been a 3rd round pick who put up good numbers in A ball in 2020, I think he'd be a unanimous top 10-15. But a 15th round pick form 13-Eric Brown Jr 14-Ethan Small He's been bad. He's still a left with the potential for a plus change, a slider and a curve that hopefully can improve and then it's just about his confidence...I think. Trusting his stuff despite a low 90s fastball. Rich Hill was the comp, I don't see why he can't still reach that level. 15-Stiven Cruz 16-Hendry Mendez 17-Abner Uribe 18-Hedbert Perez 19-Daniel Guilarte 20-Carlos Rodriguez(P) 21-Robert Moore 22-Dylan O'Rae 23-Matt Wood 24-Mario Feliciano 25-Eduardo Garcia .
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Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yeah...if the Braun thing was the ONLY issue I wouldn't have brought it up. Braun hasn't even been on the team for a couple years and literally ONE person ever thought that was a good idea. Edit--Also, I DID say about a perfectly REASONABLE topic. Feel free to use it again the next time 25 year deferred payments of 10M a year to Corbin Burnes in order to sign him to an extension is brought up. And no, I did not see Svuem's post on the Brewers hitting with RISP. I saw him talk about a different issue with this team in this thread, but surely the point isn't that there was just ONE problem, right? This team was bad or below average in a WHOLE lot of areas. How many times could we not get the run in on 2nd in extra innings? Just the last two games of the Marlins series they were 2 for 20 I think...fighting for their playoff life they couldn't get a runner in from 2nd with 0 outs in extra innings. This isn't a multiple choice. The Brewer are an all or nothing team. That may produce a decent OPS, but it doesn't produce consistency. Is this NOT the main cause for excitement about hitters like Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz...because they can actually help us score different ways? Their athleticism, Ruiz's ability to get down a bunt, Frelick making contact, Mitchell...we've already seen what his speed can do to teams in games. Oh...and they should DEFINITELY give Ruiz some games at 2B next year in ST'ing or AAA... -
Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run
UpandIn replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yeah...if the Braun thing was the ONLY issue I wouldn't have brought it up. Braun hasn't even been on the team for a couple years and literally ONE person ever thought that was a good idea. Edit--Also, I DID say about a perfectly REASONABLE topic. Feel free to use it again the next time 25 year deferred payments of 10M a year to Corbin Burnes in order to sign him to an extension is brought up. And no, I did not see Svuem's post on the Brewers hitting with RISP. I saw him talk about a different issue with this team in this thread, but surely the point isn't that there was just ONE problem, right? This team was bad or below average in a WHOLE lot of areas. How many times could we not get the run in on 2nd in extra innings? Just the last two games of the Marlins series they were 2 for 20 I think...fighting for their playoff life they couldn't get a runner in from 2nd with 0 outs in extra innings. This isn't a multiple choice. The Brewer are an all or nothing team. That may produce a decent OPS, but it doesn't produce consistency. Is this NOT the main cause for excitement about hitters like Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz...because they can actually help us score different ways? Their athleticism, Ruiz's ability to get down a bunt, Frelick making contact, Mitchell...we've already seen what his speed can do to teams in games. Oh...and they should DEFINITELY give Ruiz some games at 2B next year in ST'ing or AAA...

