UpandIn

Burnes and Woodruff are 27 and 29. Nola and Wheeler are 29 and 32. Not sure how the argument could be made that they've "burnt their peaks."

"Vastly inferior?" 87-75 86-76 (This includes two games in which the Phillies won in their final AB). By definition, they were not "vastly inferior" to either team...though, you could certainly argue both were "vastly inferior" to the Cards, the Mets, the Braves and the Dodgers.... And yet? I'm not sure when this is going to resonate that it's not even about the Brewers, it's about the very nature of Baseball, small sample sizes and the fluctuation therein that give teams with "no chance" a chance in the playoffs....which is why those "Super Teams" are now out of the playoffs and the Phillies are 3 wins away from the World Series. Particularly when that team has two aces atop their rotation. I guess using this logic though...they REALLY should just kinda sell everyone. They're going to have "no chance" next year vs the Braves. The Dodgers? They may be even better next year. Padres are going to re-load and bring Tatis back. I suppose we just kinda...cut down that apple tree?

They got a elite catching prospect, a top ~50 pitching prospect and then a older AA OFer who is not much of a prospect and a lottery ticket. That really wasn't much for Turner and Scherzer. The Dodgers did offer Seager a pretty big deal(8 years ~32M per). But he was 2 years younger than Turner in his Free Agent year, though Turner seems to be less of a health risk. It'll be interesting to see how they approach the off-season. I think Turner is the most important part of that Dodgers lineup. I'd suspect the Dodgers try and give him a shorter deal with a higher AAV, but we're in a weird place where there's almost a surplus good shortstops and not enough teams with the budget to sign them. Boston has lowballed Bogaerts, the Dodgers haven't aggressively tried to retain Turner. The Braves have tried with Swanson, though they've got most of their lineup locked up through this decade and their top prospect is a...SS. I don't think we're going to see many, if any SS's who will be getting 10 year deals @30M or more a year. At least not in the immediate future. I think the few teams going after Shortstops are going to push the price down...unless a team really loves a player. The Mets will probably sign Turner to make him a utility player after giving 3/130 to deGrom and 2/90 to Verlander. Correa, Turner, Swanson, Boegarts, Anderson(I think that's a Team option though). The Twins seem all in on Correa, even willing to go into the high 200's to sign him(reportedly). Beyond that, if Boston only wants to Bogaerts 20M a year(he's reportedly insulted that Boston's negotiations thus far included adding on one year and 20M on an already well below market deal), skeptical they'll be in on any of them. The Yankees have Volpe and Peraza(#5 and #50 overall ranked prospects respectively and both in AAA or higher). The Angels would also seem unlikely, but...maybe they're desperate. So it feels like a very small group of teams going after a group of high end FAs who'd normally be looking at massive deals. I think the few teams looking will lower the price and do the opposite with the SPing. Or at least shorten the deal the SS's get. The SPers I expect will get 3years, maybe 5 for deGrom with opt outs again. 40+ for the top couple. All that to say that I think you're right. If the Dodgers can't get Turner for a 7-8 year deal, I think they're a great fit for Adames. I'd ask for Miller and Vargas. The Dodgers are reportedly higher on Pepiot and Stone despite Miller being rated higher. Another sticking point in trading pitchers is the two organizations seem to be very similar in the type of pitchers they target in terms of analytics, spin rate, etc...the pitchers we like are more likely the ones they're high on.

What SHOULD they make? Most sports with strong unions negotiate a split of about 50% of the revenue going toward the players, 50 to the owners. Why shouldn't the players benefit? Also...it's not like tickets would be a drop down to a buck a seat if you dropped players salaries to say...100K a year. Ticket prices wouldn't be impacted by players salaries being cut, so...give the money to the players or give the money to the owners?

September Padres 13-12 100 RS, 102 RA Phillies 11-14 101 RS, 115 RA Brewers 15-13 119 RS 118 RA

He was absolutely a mess. I think he's just gotta learn to pitch at the MLB level. He was nibbling, then giving in. I still think he's talented enough to become back of the rotation type pitcher.

Hader?

Yeah, I watched the 6 innings he threw this year and he struggled...like many Lefties do early in their career. Particularly those without a big fastball. Also...my post was literally arguing to KEEP Houser as you'd otherwise be counting on Gasser AND Small to turn it around from last season. So, I'm not sure I see the issue here.

It's really not passion. The 2006 Cards you're talking about, they did have Super teams(like the Braves and Dodgers, both of whom are now out). They had the Mets, Yankees... But lets look at 2007. The Rockies, 76-72. 5 back of the Pads late in the year. They ended up winning 21 of their next 22 games to finish up 97-73 before running into the Red Sox. The year before? 2005, the 89 win Astros and the Cards, who by your metrics, would again, qualify as a Super team. #1 pitching staff, #3 in Runs, Prime Pujols, Walker, Jim Edmonds... The Astros? 11th in the NL in Rs scored, very flawed team. How about this year? The Phillies. The team that beat us by one whole game after we collapsed. They're in the NLCS vs...the Pads. The team that the Brewers nearly chased down despite constantly tripping over their own...shoelaces at the end of the season. So you've got the Pads-Phillies, and you COULD very well have the Guardians and the Astros. Please don't tell me you know what would have happened had the Brewers gotten into the playoffs. Phillies fans were saying the same thing, their team was "terrible," and we scored more run than the Pads and our team ERA was 3.83 to 3.81. The sum of baseball history at your fingertips and you think it's inconceivable that the Brewers win a game vs a lefty? How about this...we score a run? How did the D-backs score multiple runs over Rivera in the bottom of the 9th? Because...it was the playoffs. Here's a scenario. Yelich walks. Adames hits a HR. Shocking, we scored on a lefty who is probably going to throw 4 innings in that game. Maybe Renfroe hits one next. Virtually EVERY YEAR we see a team that's "not doing anything," if they get in and...shockingly, they do something. Last year, the sub .500 Braves...they got in. They won. Couple years ago, had the Nats beat. They had "no chance." Won a World Series. We lost 4 games, 2 vs Philly, 2 vs SD with the lead in the 9th and lost. That's the margin and we finish ahead of the two very flawed teams heading to the WS(well, one of them will). So, sure, I'm passionate about the Brewers. ON THIS however, I'm just using the entire history of baseball to point out thi sis an inherently flawed argument.

It'd seem unlikely his back was healthy as he still hit for little to no power. And as he moved down in the order on occasion, he didn't start hitting for anymore power. He was just...Shin Soo-Choo after HIS bad deal and with fewer HRs and about 30 fewer slugging points. That's what he was...as our leadoff hitter. We can only hope he can at least be that moving forward. I've also heard...criticism about Yelich's work ethic. I don't know how much validity there is to this, it's been vague and from people "who have heard from people," but a good healthy off-season working on his core and back, that would be great. Ryan Braun's core strength was insane. But I'd just count on Yelich putting up ~110 OPS+ playing on about 125 games and walking about 12-14% the next few years...and I'd be fine with that. Poor value, but at least some value.

Man, you are the ying to everyone's yang, aren't you! Question; "should we non-tender Adrian Houser." Clancy; "We should EXTEND him for 6 more years!"

Well, Gasser and Small could be guys we could fall back on. That takes Gasser out of play to get more work in AAA and then come up and give the BP a potential boost later in the year, AND it counts on Small putting it together enough to be a swing man/#6/7 SPer. Or just pay a pittance(relatively speaking) for a guy who has shown he can be a nice rotation depth...and who I think has upside to be more than that.

I didn't mean you literally did not have someone to play in RF. I meant a replacement as in...someone who WASN'T a dramatic drop off in ability. .233/.286/.442 .729 OPS .255/.315/.492 .807 OPS Upside; Taylor's splits are fairly even. Downside; Taylor's splits are fairly even. We couldn't score runs. Solution...get rid of our best hitter, our best RHed bat, get rid of our 2nd best hitter(which makes some sense, but probably wise to pay 8M for the 2B with 3.2 WAR as I don't think it'd be hard to trade him). But we're bringing back all 3 of the players who both cost a great deal of money(most likely far more than you're proposing) and...we rid of the two best hitters. What exactly is the point in this? And...once again, the Mets bought out Bonilla so they could go out and sign Mike Hampton who was coming off a 22-4, 2.90 ERA, 6.7 WAR season in which he was Cy Young runner up. Why would we do the stupid half of the Mets deferred money...but not the smart half? Now, if Wiemer can buck traditional trends and he can come up and hit MLB caliber pitching right out of the gate...then this wild gamble STILL wouldn't pay off as we need to find a way to hit LFers better. So how about you keep the guy who gives you an ~.800 OPS each year and ~30 HRs and HOPE the guy in AAA can come up and perform and make your team better rather than get rid of another player who hit well this year and count on a rookie(another rookie who's struggled to adjust when initially jumping leagues)?

Revenue should still be up with TV and Revenue sharing. This is definitely a year Attanasio needs to push the payroll up...if there's a move that makes sense. We don't know exactly what they make, but folks smarter than us have made educated guesses about what they get in revenue sharing, how much the TV money is going up. We also don't know if players are going to be willing to sign with us. If we want Abreu for example...will he want to go to a team with no other Cuban players, or would he prefer to go and join a team like...I don't know, the Orioles. Maybe that doesn't matter at all. So again, I won't be upset about the payroll under a certain number, it'll be more about how they go about doing it. If they're gonna run it back, then run it back with the best players, the core, then you need to add to that, not just hope the rookies will perform.

I don't understand what point you're making. I didn't say anything about Renfroe and you're getting...very little back from Seattle other than...lottery tickets. That's fine if you have a replacement, but you don't have one that's ready.

Agreed...he's running off the field, the guy steps in front of him and he reacts...poorly. He's also running through a part of the stadium where players fairly regularly get things thrown on them, he's trying to get off the field. But the camera man will get a lawyer and file a lawsuit. Adams will buy him a new wardrobe. That's not what happened, so I don't really see the point in entertaining hypotheticals.

Objectively NOT the truth. And I didn't says Peralta and Ashby were going to be throwing 145 pitches or be Madison Bumgarnder. I LITERALLY said "PIECE TOGETHER OTHER GAMES WITH....and then listed 4 pitchers with those two among them. But sure, Freddy couldn't possibly have gotten his command back.(Freddy did throw 4 shutout with 0BB and 4K with the season on the line, but he couldn't have helped as there's no way he could have gotten his command back). I presume you follow baseball other than just this season and just this Brewers team, right? https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2006.shtml Show me how this juggernaut was sooo much more talented than the rest of the playoff field? "This season needed to come to an end." I don't even know what that means honestly in this context and it sounds ridiculous. And the arrogance to say it's not even an ARGUMENT, it's just "the truth," c'mon...?

Right...I was obviously using the number that would have been in line with the Padres package. And I don't think the Padres would have ever considered that trade. Also, I'll just leave it here. I'm just very skeptical. You said It's "KNOWN to be used by MLB GMs in some capacity," and you have the creator saying people have told him some FOs do. It seems to me like you're just giving it credibility based on this anecdotal evidence and said anecdotal evidence is coming from the person who owns a product and is trying to promote it and himself.

Ok, so I'm gonna go with 'no, I'm not a Badgers fan, but I follow the program' then. It's such a simple question, I don't feel like it requires a resume.

?I'd happy bet they make a Bowl game this year...and they won't miss it by much. I also notice you didn't actually answer the question about being a Badgers fan.

I mean...I hate to be...well, a dick, but that's not really proof. That's a guy saying someone in a front office emailed him to say they used his web site. I think that's a good leap from proof that MLB GMs use it. I could see them having some intern run it through and if they find a major discrepancy taking another look, OR maybe using this in a back and forth saying, "hey, we're giving up more value here," but...at most. These teams have pretty sophisticated systems and this offers virtually no nuance. That Corbin Burnes value would place him in the range of the package the Pads gave up for Soto. If that's the case, I'd have made that trade. I just remain skeptical. I'm not saying it has no value, but just that it feels closer to the NBA Trade Machine or PFF Mock draft simulator. A little tool mostly for fans. Anyway, love the idea of Jansen, but if giving up someone like Wiemer, I'd want more than 2 years of team control. Though, to be fair, he would line up pretty damn well with Quero. Ruiz would be more palpable to me though.

That seems incredibly unrealistic for a player who will be 32, has played over 96 games TWICE in his career. He's a nice player...when healthy. That's not often. And it really seems to be at odds with the "trade Renfroe for salary" argument you've made...fairly regularly. He's also coming off his worst year, played in 57 games, his defense has diminished...leading to him getting time at DH. Nice player. Not a guy who's likely to get "at LEAST three times"(15M) a year with all those issues. Glancing at a couple Mariners sites, he's looking for something in the ~3/30 range.

Is there any proof of that? That seems...kinda ridiculous. As I pointed out, I could package Tyrone Taylor and Jason Alexander and I'm at close to the same value that you get with Joey Wiemer and Rodriguez and...Jansen. Does anyone think the Jays would take such a deal? These values seem all over the place. I guess even if they use it, it seems like PFF and NFL Front offices that refer to that. I would doubt they put much stock in it. As for Jansen...I don't see anything to suggest he slowed down. I don't know how to really put stock into a catcher who hasn't had to play everyday, but it clearly wasn't a fluke month. If anything, he was very unlucky in the 1st half.

Yeah, this isn't surprising. It's kinda like how you watch...I don't know, Around the Horn or a different Sports show and they try and cover so many different things, they only have a surface level knowledge. I mean...follow the minor leagues, I go to a few games. I've probably seen as much of these guys as him. Or not, but the point is, you're covering 4 levels of full season MiLB for 32 teams... Honestly kinda why I came back here. The nightly coverage by you, Danuelle, it provides much more context than just some Tweets and a few games.

Yeah, I completely reject that argument. We've seen too many times the inferior teams winning. Teams just getting hot and going on a run. The "they weren't going anywhere anyway," is an entirely flawed argument. You throw two aces, two elite relievers and then piece the other games together with Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Ashby(who maybe has a breakout post-season).