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wiguy94

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Everything posted by wiguy94

  1. wiguy94
    Let's play a fun game. We will do the highest K-rate among hitters at certain PA numbers. 500 PA - Eugenio Suarez 30.8% 400 PA - Chris Taylor 36.0% 300 PA - Joey Gallo 38.8% 250 PA - Oneil Cruz 38.8% 200 PA - Keston Hiura 41.9% (only one other player, Brett Phillips, has 200 PA and a K-rate over 40%) Guys who strike out as much as Hiura does do not play every day. Only 11 players in the MLB have 50 PA and a K-rate over 40%. 9 of the 11 have a wRC+ under 100. Dermis Garcia has 79 PA and a 140 wRC+ with a K-rate of 44.3% but his .438 BABIP likely speak to him far overperforming his expected results.
  2. wiguy94
    Adames is an elite defensive SS and could end the year as a 5 WAR player. He's by far our best position player.
  3. wiguy94
    It was the 16th that he was late switched to DH.
  4. wiguy94
    There was a late lineup change on Saturday or Friday (can't remember which) that moved Wiemer from RF to DH. I'm guessing it's just something minor going on for him right now.
  5. wiguy94
    They had to pitch him today. Normal rest (4 days) puts him pitching on the 19th, 24th, 29th, and 4th which would make his normal rest the 9th (game 3 of WC round). If he got pushed to tomorrow he could still pitch 4 times in regular season on normal rest but wouldn’t be available in the WC round on normal rest
  6. wiguy94
    Kind of wish we held back Burnes start another day and went bullpen day today. Would hate for Burnes to pitch a good game tonight only for us to lose because Scherzer pitched slightly better. Really makes it feel like today is a must win because the pitching matchup is heavily against us the next two days.
  7. wiguy94
    I'm surprised more people don't acknowledge this. He played basically every game from 8/17 to 9/9 and had a 103 wRC+ with a 37% K-rate. The last 10 days of that 3 week stretch of playing he had a 45 wRC+ with with a 39% K-rate. Seemingly every time he is thrown into more playing time he begins to struggle.
  8. wiguy94
    Frelick had a HBP so his on-base streak continued.
  9. wiguy94
    It's a big leap from A+ to AA especially for an 18 year old who was doing great at A+, but wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire like he did in A ball. Jasson Dominguez, the number 2 prospect in the Yankees system, is over a year older than Chourio and was similarly called up for the final week of AA. He's currently slashing .063/.167/.188 through 4 games.
  10. wiguy94
    He's pretty much has the same fWAR/150 this year as he did as a Brewer last year at 5.15 fWAR/150. He is doing it in different ways. Last year it was all offense driving his WAR, this year it has been more of a balance of defense and offense driving his WAR. People are likely referring to the regression at the plate going from 136 wRC+ to 113 wRC+ when they talk about his regression.
  11. wiguy94
    I mean you are arguing that Burnes has been a top 10 SP this season with stats that are predictive stats not evaluative stats (That article went over FIP being much better in evaluating current performance than xFIP and SIERA)???
  12. wiguy94
    Again xFIP and SIERA should not be used to evuluate current performance. I can't take your opinions seriously when you continue to use them despite me showing you why they shouldn't be used.
  13. wiguy94
    I'm packing their bags first thing in the morning lol. No ill will to Yelich because he's still an above average, dare I say good, player but it's just hard having that contract on the books with the type of production he is putting out.
  14. wiguy94
    What metrics do you want to use? Among pitchers with at least 200 balls in play (to filter out RP) Burnes is 19th in xwOBA and 24th in wOBA compared to being 1st in both last year. Burnes is 14th in K%-BB% this year after being 1st last year. I'm not sure he has been a top 10 SP in baseball this year. If you can find some metrics that put him top 10 I would love to see them, but I can't seem to find them. He's still a very good SP but going from by far the best SP in the game to fringe top 10 SP is a huge falloff and his falloff has been less dramatic than pretty much the entire rest of our pitching staff.
  15. wiguy94
    First off xFIP and SIERA really shouldn't be used to evaluate current production. They are both tools best used as predictors than as evaluators like ERA+ and FIP. (Going Deep: The Relative Value of FIP, xFIP and SIERA - Pitcher List). Also Burnes has definitely fallen off in both xFIP and SIERA this year as well. From 2020 to 2021 Burnes was 1st in both xFIP and SIERA. His xFIP was 2.48 and the next closest was Cole at 3.06. His SIERA was 2.76 and the next closes was Cole at 3.01. This year Burnes xFIP and SIERA are 2.96 and 2.94 which are very far behind the leaders at 2.31 and 2.54
  16. wiguy94
    Mitchell after tonight has a 72 wRC+ while also having the 5th best WPA (winning probability added) among the position players. He has been very Orlando Arcia'n with his struggles at the plate seemingly no longer appearing in the biggest moments.
  17. wiguy94
    Burnes went from being the best SP in baseball the last two years (other than deGrom but not counting him because of lack of innings) to like a top 15 SP this year. He's 15th in ERA and 14th in FIP this year compared to 1st in both over the previous two years. That's a pretty substantial fall of for him. The injuries have absolutely hurt, but the whole staff has regressed so it isn't just the injuries to blame. Here is a SP comparison between 2021 and 2022. Burnes ERA+ 170 to 134 (36 point drop) Woodruff ERA+ 161 to 117 (44 point drop) Freddy ERA+ 147 to 116 (31 point drop) Houser ERA+ 128 to 86 (42 point drop...and will be more after this start tonight) Lauer ERA+ 130 to 102 (28 point drop) Brett Anderson ERA+ 98 to Ashby ERA+ 87 (11 point drop) That's a cumulative ERA+ drop of 192 points from our 6 SP last year to our 6 SP this year. Obviously you would expect some regression after last year but nobody could have planned for this. In 2021 those 6 SP also started in 155 of our 162 games. This year those 6 SP have started 129 of our 144 games.
  18. wiguy94
    Good to see that both of their recoveries went well. Uribe especially with him being Rule 5 eligible this offseason.
  19. wiguy94
    I swear there was someone on this site saying they had inside sources that Uribe and Black weren't playing until Spring. Good to see they were wrong and that both will be attending AZFL!
  20. wiguy94
    I wish they both could get it, but I feel like Ohtani has to get it for the reasons you said. It's just crazy that Judge has 19 more HR than anyone else in the MLB and he's doing it in a park that isn't super HR friendly for RHH.
  21. wiguy94
    Brandon Knarr strikes out 3 straight after loading the bases in the 5th to keep the score tied 0-0.
  22. wiguy94
    I don't know where you are getting this information from, but Mitchell is the only one who profiles better than Chourio defensively but Mitchell has major question mark with his hit tool. Chourio has only been playing in the OF for two years now and is rapidly improving out there.
  23. wiguy94
    I don't think this is true of all parks, but this is very true for AmFam. AmFam has a pretty small outfield which makes the HR ball that much more important here. Statcast oark factors 3 year rolling average has AmFam as a below average park for singles, doubles, and triples but one of the most favorable for HR. Baseball-Reference park factors has AmFam as a pitchers park. If you aren't hitting HR at AmFam it will be difficult to consistently put together a good offense.
  24. wiguy94
    That's not at all what it means. Chourio is the best of the bunch, a potential superstar. Him being our starting CF in the future would likely happen no matter what Frelick, Mitchell and Ruiz do.
  25. wiguy94
    Yelich and Hiura both falling off after 2019 hurts a lot here. Those were the two guys who were supposed to be the big bats in the middle of our order. Unfortunately acquiring these big bats is easier said than done. They either take a large prospect haul, a lot of money or both. This is where the Brewers inability to develop bats post Lucroy has been an issue. Thankfully we seem to be righting the ship in this department, but it might be too late to capitalize on Burnes and Woodruff's team control which is why some have suggested a soft retool for 2024 by trading one of those two for some more prospects.
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