wiguy94
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Everything posted by wiguy94
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1. McCutchen had 0.3 fWAR so yes, he was basically replacement level. 2. No. Yelich's increased fWAR was not largely due to his increase in PA it was largely due to the fact he was better as both a hitter and baserunner.
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Not AZFL but Josh Norris is absolutely loving what he's seeing from Misiorowski today!
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Absolutely fantastic management though. If our FO was Cleveland level with Mark's budget we would be a St. Louis level franchise.
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102 to 111 wRC+ is a pretty decent jump. Yelich's fangraphs offensive value was 11.9 this year compared to 2.9 last year. Obviously the 200 extra PA help in that scenario but most of the increased WAR was simply because he played better. If you are playing Tyrone in LF instead of Yelich he wouldn't be putting up the same fWAR as he did in CF because a good chunk of Tyrone's fWAR comes from his defensive value in CF. It's basically impossible to accumulate positive defensive value in LF. Steven Kwan had 15 DRS, 3.0 UZR/150 and 8 OAA playing 85% of his innings in LF and had a -0.7 defensive value on fangraphs. Basically as a LF if you want to put a high WAR season you need to be very good at the plate something that Tyrone is not.
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I continue to be a bit stunned by Longenhagen's bearishness towards Frelick especially after rating Kwan so highly after 2021.
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Cutch would have had more if he didn't miss two weeks because of COVID in May. Probably would have had 145 games and 600+ PA.
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Smith went 3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO and 2 WP. Must have mixed him up with someone else. Ward is 2-7 with 2 doubles, 2 walks and a SB in his first two games. Overall things have started well for the guys. Looking forward to Henderson hopefully starting tomorrow?
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I don't think the difference is that big currently, but in the next few years the gap should increase as Mitchell gets more accustomed to CF in the MLB. His speed and arm are big upgrades over Frelick. Frelick probably does profile best as a LF because of his slight frame and average arm.
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The difference wouldn't be that much especially with the way Yelich played defense in LF this year. JD Martinez played all 139 days at DH this year and his fangraphs defensive value was -15.0, Yelich's defensive value at the end of the season was -12.9. He would likely be just above 2.0 fWAR if he was a full-time DH this year.
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Umm...1.86 second pop time is elite MLB level pop time. Quero is a special prospect.
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He wasn't on the 40-man so he elected for minor league free agency. If Brewers wanted to keep him they could have put him on the 40-man roster that currently has two open spots, but them not doing that means they didn't have interest in keeping him at arb 3 or a negotiated deal to avoid arb.
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Completely agree. That type of contract is basically a no-lose situation for the Brewers. It's basically just normal increases that an average-ish player would see through arb with two club options in FA. Even if Ashby doesn't make it as a SP and is just a high leverage bullpen guy that contract is still good value for the Brewers.
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Severino elected free agency. I hope this means the Brewers are looking to make an aggressive move for one of Jansen or Murphy and not that they have committed to Caratini/Feliciano being the MLB catcher duo next season.
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Calling Chafin a journeyman is a bit much. He’s got 400 career IP with a 3.23 ERA and 3.17 FIP. At $8M per year that’s also about half as much as Hader was projected to make in arb next year. I get it’s not the Brewers style I’m simply suggesting it’s necessary considering how underwhelming the high leverage bullpen looks going into 2023. We are going to need to bring in some quality arms and they either costs money or prospect capital.
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Yes. I’d imagine the Brewers will give Ashby every possible chance to be a SP given they extended him long term.
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Chafin for me is a more if a 7th inning guy. I would still be in search of an 8th inning guy to replace Boxberger’s high leverage role. Just think that would probably be through a trade. The bullpen would look like this. 9th - DW 8th - Boxberger replacement 7th - Chafin MR - Cousins, Bush, Milner, Strzelecki LR - 6th starter likely Houser
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Yes I am suggesting we sign Chafin to a 2 year deal in the $8M per year range. We desperately need to upgrade our bullpen. We can't go into 2023 with Boxberger and Bush as our high leverage duo behind DW. We should have a little bit of money to work with Cain, Hader, McCutchen, Narvaez, and Lindblom's contracts off the books. Especially if Wong's option is declined. I'm simply suggesting we use that money to shore up the high leverage bullpen so it returns to being a strength after being one of our biggest weaknesses this year.
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Exactly. One of my suggestions was Andrew Chafin who can replace Hoby's high leverage type role and we can push Hoby into Suter's role from last year. I think Chafin would be a good 7th inning guy. We probably will need to look into a trade for an 8th inning guy. Not sure of any names, but I don't trust anyone on the staff currently to be in the 8th inning role behind DW.
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From 5/1 through the end of the season Suter had a 107 FIP-, a 104 xFIP-, and a 3.88 SIERA. None of those numbers are good. Sure the ERA was good and that's good that he got good production, but none of the underlying numbers look good in that time which when looking towards next year is more important to look at than pure ERA. Those type of guys worked when we had Hader and DW/Knebel/Jeffress locking down the 8th and 9th. We don't have that lockdown 8th inning guy anymore which is why we need to invest in the bullpen this offseason especially considering the BP was a major weakpoint from July on. Would you feel good about going into 2023 with Boxberger being our 8th inning guy?
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You're ignoring that he's one of the lowest leverage relievers in baseball. It doesn't matter if he bounces back (which shouldn't be assumed because he's a soft tossing 33 year old who doesn't strike people out). Paying a super low leverage reliever $3M a year when you desperately need to improve your high leverage options is a waste of limited small market resources.
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Just god no. He's a 33 year old super low leverage reliever. Giving him a 4 year contract is crazy.
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Just for some perspective on Suter. In 2022 he had a 93 ERA- (2nd worst in career), a 110 FIP- (2nd worst in career), a 105 xFIP- (2nd worst in career), a 3.97 SIERA (worst since 2018), and a 0.67 pLI (lowest average leverage index of his career). I get he's a great clubhouse guy, but having probably the second worst season of his career while having the lowest leverage index of his career just isn't great.
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I mean I agree with this but there comes a time where you need to weigh the pros and cons. Paying $3M for a super low leverage reliever because he has good clubhouse vibes just makes filling the other 6 bullpen spots that much more important. You're lowering your margin of error in the bullpen by bringing Suter back. The Rays churn through RP and just their overall roster and still manage to have great team chemistry and success.
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But the question is why? Why should we pay $3M a year for a low leverage RP. I love Suter as a clubhouse guy. He seems like an awesome person/clubhouse personality, but his pitching role in the BP is highly replaceable and can be filled with a league minimum guy making over 4x less than Suter.
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Assuming Chafin declines his player option, I would love for the Brewers to try and sign him in FA. Would be a great high leverage LHP. I think we probably bring Boxberger back. He's been an absolute workhorse the last two years, but I wouldn't be against declining his option and trying to bring in younger high leverage RP through a trade/FA. Bullpen would look like this: 9th - DW 8th - Boxberger replacement 7th - Chafin MR - Cousins, Strzelecki, Milner, Bush LR - Houser/Ashby I'm just very much of the belief that we need to have a much more solid BP next year even if that means spending some money/assets on it.
